One-third of the 2008-09 season has been completed. And three teams – the Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, and LA Lakers – have risen to the top. Although the majority of the season still remains to be played, it seems likely that the eventual NBA champion will come from this trio (and thankfully, it’s certainly no longer the case that the Lakers are the clear favorite).
We can expect as the season continues to unfold that more and more attention will be paid to this threesome. But there are 27 other franchises in the Association. And of these 27, one might wonder which one is the most deserving of a little bit more attention? In other words, which team is currently the “best of the rest”?
For an answer we turn to efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency). Before we get to the identity of the fourth best team, let’s first note which teams do not currently hold the title “best of the rest” (as of the games played Monday night):
- The New Orleans Hornets might have the most productive player in the game in Chris Paul. But they are only ranked 5th in differential.
- The 6th ranked team is one that many thought would contend for a title in 2009. But the Houston Rockets currently rank far behind the top trio in the league.
- Last year the Utah Jazz ranked 4th in differential. Injuries, though, have caused the Jazz to fall to 10th in the league (behind Portland, Denver, and San Antonio in the Western Conference).
Howard and the Magic
To find the “best of the rest” we have to look outside the West and think about Superman and the Magic Kingdom. Yes, the team currently ranked fourth in efficiency differential is the Orlando Magic.
After 28 games the Orlando have a 6.7 efficiency differential. In some years such a mark would mean the Magic would be considered clear contenders for the title. But Cleveland, Boston, and the Lakers currently post differentials of 14.3, 11.2, and 9.5 respectively. Although these numbers might decline some as the season progresses (then again, maybe they won’t), it seems unlikely the gap between the Magic and the top three will close. Nevertheless, as Table One indicates, the Magic are on pace to win 58 games. So although this team might not win a title in 2009, Orlando is still having a very good season.
Table One: The Orlando Magic in 2008-09
When we look at the individual players, we can see the source of these wins. Obviously the most productive player on the Magic is Dwight Howard. Howard is currently on pace to produce 25 wins this season or 44% of the team’s total. In other words, Howard is a contender for Most Productive Player (he currently ranks behind Chris Paul and LeBron James).
The Main Sidekick
Although Howard is the clear leader in Orlando, he’s not a one man team. The second fiddle on this team is Rashard Lewis.
No, that’s not right. Lewis – who appears to be logging most of his minutes at power forward – is actually below average (because he appears to be logging most of his minutes at power forward).
How about Hedo Turkoglu? Turkoglu was the second most productive player last season. This season, though, Turkoglu has also become a below average performer (following a pattern where every other season he is below average).
Okay, if it’s not Lewis or Turkoglu, who is Howard’s primary sidekick?
For an answer, think back to the man who assisted Howard on the Superman dunk. Yes, it’s none other than the much maligned Jameer Nelson.
Currently Nelson has posted a 0.251 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes], a mark that is more than twice the output of an average player (average is 0.100). This is certainly the best mark of Nelson’s career. But one should note that Nelson was above average last season [0.189 WP48]. He also posted a 0.151 WP48 in 2005-06. In sum, Nelson has been a productive player in the past. So what he’s doing this year is not a complete surprise.
The Other Big Men
Beyond Howard and Nelson, the Magic have also received above average performances from Tony Battie, Courtney Lee (just barely), and Marcin Gortat.
Once upon a time, Battie was an above average performer. In fact, as a Celtic – where he played from 1999 to 2003 — Battie was consistently an above average player. But after leaving Boston, Battie stopped being good. At least, until this year.
And then there is Gortat, a player who is so famous his NBA.com bio is currently missing words. We do know that Gortat replaced Howard in the starting line-up on December 15th of this season. And against the Golden State Warriors, Gortat scored 16 points with 13 rebounds. Prior to this game Gortat’s entire career production – with respect to scoring and boards – consisted of 30 points and 31 rebounds.
Although Gortat has not played much, he has played well when given a chance. Last year Gortat only played 44 minutes. His WP48, though, was 0.271. This year he has played just 133 minutes and his WP48 stands at 0.267. Both marks are well above average and suggest Gortat could be a productive NBA player. But with only 177 minutes played, we can’t be sure.
Nevertheless, one wonders what would happen if Orlando gave Gortat a bit more playing time. Cleveland (with Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Ben Wallace, and Anderson Varejao), Boston (with Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins), and the Lakers (with Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum) have all found some success playing big players. In other words, the top teams seem to think that bigger is better in basketball.
Perhaps the Magic could learn from the example of the NBA’s top teams. Maybe the Magic could let Lewis log a few more minutes at small forward (where he is above average) and let Gortat (or Battie) spend a bit more time with Howard at the power forward-center slots. If that happens, the gap between the Magic and the top trio might (and I repeat the word “might”) close a bit. And maybe we can have a foursome compete for the NBA title in 2009.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Evan
December 23, 2008
I think some of the traditional Western teams will improve
Ben
December 23, 2008
Professor Berri, you may want to adjust Table One to reflect the fact that Tony Battie did not play in 2007/2008. Did you take his numbers from the 2006/2007 season?
dberri
December 23, 2008
Thanks Ben,
I did use his 06-07 numbers and that is now noted in the table.
stephanie
December 24, 2008
Using your most productive 15 players from each position last year (https://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/04/27/the-top-15-at-each-position/):
Fantasy WoW team:
Nash (.289) / Calderon (.309)
AI (.134) / Monta Ellis (.177)
Maggette (.132) / Dunleavy (.173)
Boozer (.251) / David Lee (.259)
Camby (.365) / Al Jefferson (.217)
They would be hypothetical favorites for the title, right? Too bad they’d give up 150 points a game. Although maybe they’re deep enough to make up for it, I dunno…
Michael
December 24, 2008
Professor Berri,
If Dwight Howard’s WP48 is 0.443 and he trails Chris Paul and Lebron James in wins produced, what are their WP48’s?
Thanks
Jeremy
December 24, 2008
Do you have a back of the napkin estimate for how many additions wins beyond 58 the Magic should expect to collect by giving Gortat and Battie more minutes at the four position?
I love the theme of using Wins Produced to show how a head coach could get so much more out of their existing lineup by rummaging through the pantry rather than just doing more grocery shopping (unless you’re Kevin McHale and you’ve left your own cupboard bare).
Mark Wylie
December 24, 2008
Hi Dave, is there anywhere on the site we can find a ranking of player WP48 etc?
VG
December 24, 2008
The road to the NBA finals will go through the Commonwealth.
And with the way Boston is playing right now, even Gortat at power forward and Rashard Lewis at 3 is probably not enough to get this team over the hump.
I don’t like Gortat’s chances against an aging but still very good KG. Rajon Rondo’s game is more complete than Nelson’s right now. Turkoglu would probably draw even with Ray Allen, and Lewis with Paul Pierce. Of course, Howard has the edge over Perkins.
The Magic would certainly give Boston a fight. But the C’s have too much momentum right now.
Leon
December 24, 2008
Long time reader, first time commenter. I wonder what Kobe’s WP48 is considering how inefficent a scorer he has been when he takes a lot of shots. Watching NBA on tv (we only see one game a week on tv in the uk) they said the Lakers were 14-0 when Kobe shot less than 14 (? I think) attempts.
dberri
December 24, 2008
Leon,
Kobe’s WP48 after 24 games was 0.206. So he is still very good.
mrparker
December 24, 2008
150 points a game with a frontl line of Jefferson, Camby, Boozer, and Lee…..I see the point you are trying to make but you are dreaming.
Look at what San Antonio defense is doing this year. They are doing it with a lineup of Duncan, Bonner, Finley, Manu, and TP.
Tommy_Grand
December 25, 2008
Professor Berri,
I still think LA remains the favorite to win it all. While the Cletics are playing a little better, the Lakers will not face Boston, Orlando, or Cleveland before the finals. Accordingly, LA is [marginally] more likely to reach the finals than any individual eastern team. No?
Vince G.
December 25, 2008
It’s like I was saying.
Marcin Gortat’s WP48 this season is .267
KG’s WP48 is .200
So are we to believe that Gortat is really a better player? No, not right now, because KG gets more minutes and produces more wins. Gortat would have to match or come close to his level for quite a few minutes in order to hold his own.
Also, the stats behind WP48 are influenced by a wide variety of factors.
For example, LeBron James is experiencing a career high in productivity. He is topping .400 when he was right around .250-.300 range for most of his career.
He has teammates who help complement his skills. He has improved since Beijing. He is getting fewer minutes, so he has more energy to post up the stats he does. He has improved on defense etc. etc.
So, even if you were to build a real-life NBA team, just picking the 15 of the most productive players in the league isn’t a guarantee that you’ll have a year for the ages.
Sure, it improves your chances of winning games and certainly being a championship squad.
But an analysis of this team after 1 season would show that the average WP48 would dip from .300-.400 to .200 at most (to reflect a team winning all 82 games.)
What happens if certain players want the ball more? What if the offensive and defensive systems didn’t match certain players’ talents?
For example, last season this team would have, without regard to position:
Chris Paul, Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, LeBron James, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard, Marcus Camby, Kobe Bryant, Tyson Chandler, Amare Stoudemire, Jose Calderon, Chauncey Billups, Manu Ginobili, and Lamar Odom.
What about Paul Pierce and Ray Allen last year? What about Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum and their impact on the Lakers? What about David West and the role he has played in New Orleans?
I rest my case.
keving
December 25, 2008
“Accordingly, LA is [marginally] more likely to reach the finals than any individual eastern team. No?”
Maybe so but getting to the Finals and winning it are 2 different things (example: last year).
Whomever of Boston or Cleveland gets to the Finals, they will kick the crap out of the Lakers. The Lakers are just too soft, and aren’t well-constructed for the post-season.
Phil
December 25, 2008
Lost amidst the mess of efficiency differentials is that the post-season is very different from the regular season.
Even putting aside subjective observations (that defenses tighten up, that teams which can make strategic adjustments have an edge) or objective ones from which one can infer subjective conclusions (pace slows down, so teams reliant on fast-break points will struggle), is one almost universal characteristic among teams:
Rotations get smaller. As teams play their better players more minutes, they become better teams. The Cavs are this good with Lebron James playing 36 minutes a game, how good will he be playing 46, and Sasha Pavlovic playing next-to-none?
Part of the Spurs’ post-season excellence has always been that their starters’ minutes grew from about 30 minutes/game to 40+; a team with Tony Parker playing nearly the entire game in lieu of Jacque Vaughn is going to be better.
Conversely, the D’Antoni-coached Suns, with their regular-season seven-man rotation, doesn’t allow for increased productivity in the playoffs.
This really favors LA, Boston and Cleveland, which all have productive players whose minutes will go up once the playoffs start. For Orlando, who already has players like Howard averaging 38 a game, the change will be less substantial.
Vince Gagliano
December 25, 2008
Early verdicts:
Cleveland: Unlikely to hold. The Cavs have dominated against lesser teams, but as time goes on, the high will begin to wear off.
Nevertheless, the beginning of the season helps set the tempo for what is to come.
Boston: Steady. Essentially, the biggest difference between this year’s team and last year is that Rajon Rondo has filled the “fourth-man” gap that James Posey has left behind. The C’s might not match the ’96 Chicago Bulls, but they’re certainly on the right track.
Lakers: Unclear. Los Angeles has the benefit of an offense generating 110.7 points per 100 possessions, but their defensive efficiency (100.8 per 100), leaves something to be desired. As it stands, they are behind Cleveland (97.5), Boston (96.6), and Orlando (98.7) in this regard.
The gap in defensive efficiency is the biggest reason why LA’s differential has lagged behind the Celtics and Cavs. If they can tighten up their effort, they’re the best team in the league.
If not, well, heed the cautionary tales of Mike D’Antoni and Don Nelson.
Tommy_Grand
December 26, 2008
“Maybe so but getting to the Finals and winning it are 2 different things (example: last year).”
Agreed. But you must be there to win. Each team’s odds of winning the title = that squad’s odds of reaching the finals multiplied by its odds of beating its opponent.
mrparker
December 26, 2008
maybe kgs low wp48 is because of age. he and rondo have basically switched w48s this season. This essentialy leaves the Celtics right back where they were last year before Sam Cassel ruined the rotation.