According to Dictionary.com, boring is defined as follows: To make weary by being dull, repetitive, or tedious. Given this definition, I think the Spurs are somewhat boring. Consider the following:
- For the past five seasons this team has won between 56 and 63 regular season games.
- The team’s Wins Produced for the past five seasons has ranged from 53.5 to 63.1.
- In each season the team has been led in Wins Produced by the exact same trio (this is the really repetitive or boring aspect of this team). The trio consists of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker, and the Wins Production of these three players has ranged from 35.5 to 44.4.
- Prior to last season, the Wins Produced of every Spur not named Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker ranged from 18.7 to 24.3.
In sum, the Spurs are quite repetitive. And for someone who is not particularly a fan of this team, such repetition seems kind of boring.
The Story this Season
It’s my goal to offer one comment on every NBA team before the midpoint of the season. So despite the repetitive nature of this team, I feel compelled to say something about San Antonio.
Let me start by noting that last season the Wins Produced of everyone not named Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker dipped to 12.3. Consequently, the team’s performance declined a bit.
This season – as Table One indicates – the Spurs are again led by Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker. And the productivity of everyone else is projected to by 19.3 by the time the season ends (yes, same old story).
Table One: The San Antonio Spurs after 36 games in 2008-09
Unfortunately, now the top three have dropped off a bit. Last season Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker produced 41.2 wins. This season this trio is only on pace to produce 31.8 victories.
Part of this decline is associated with a drop-off in minutes played. If these three players played the same number of minutes as last season, the trio would be on pace to produce 36.0 wins (given their per-minute productivity this season). In sum, the change in minutes explains about one-half of the decline in the total production of these players.
For the other half we have to look at WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes]. Although Parker is having one of the best seasons of his career, Duncan and Ginobili are offering substantially less. In fact, both players haven’t played this poorly since each player’s sophomore season in the NBA.
The decline in the productivity of Duncan and Ginobili is the primary reason (the loss of Brent Barry isn’t helping either) why this team is posting its smallest efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) since 1996-97 (the year before Duncan arrived). Currently this team’s differential is 3.94. Prior to this season, the lowest mark for the Spurs in the Duncan era has been 4.36 (that was Duncan’s rookie season).
As the season progresses it’s possible that both Duncan and Ginobili will return to form. If this happens, San Antonio’s differential will increase. This might be good enough for the Spurs to solidify its ranking as the second best team in the Western Conference. But it’s not likely this team can close the gap with the Lakers in the West. So it seems unlikely that the Spurs will win another title in 2009.
And this is pretty much the same thing I said last August. The Spurs will be led in Wins Produced by Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker. Because of these three players, the Spurs will be very good. But because the Lakers have improved so much, the Spurs trio will probably not be good enough. In sum, I am being repetitive (at least when I talk about the repetitive Spurs).
Last Teams
At this point these are the only teams I have not yet discussed this season: Atlanta, Dallas, Sacramento, Washington, Indiana, and New Orleans. Look for something on each team in the next ten days. And then we will be at the mid-point of the season and I will review the entire league. This review will discuss both the top teams and players across the first half of the 2008-09 season.
And when that’s done, then I will start all over with posts on each team in the NBA in the second-half (yes this all seems quite repetitive).
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Sam Cohen
January 13, 2009
I’m surprised to see that Duncan has declined so much this season, especially since I recall a number of articles in the popular press from earlier this season talking about how he was “playing as well as ever.” Any particular area we can point to for his decline?
dberri
January 13, 2009
Sam,
Duncan’s rebounds and blocked shots are down.
Peter
January 13, 2009
Much of the dip in Duncan’s productivity is directly tied to his rebounding and blocking averages, both of which are career lows.
Ginobili’s issues are centered more on his perimeter shooting. That, and the fact that he came back from an ankle injury that he suffered in the Olympics, means that Ginobili is probably more likely to revert to form than Duncan. Whereas Manu’s issues center around finding his stroke, Duncan’s center on 11 1/2 seasons of NBA wear and tear in the low post.
Even Barry isn’t likely to help out much. While Manu’s shooting percentage is bad, Barry’s is really, really bad with Houston. Actually, I take that back, because Barry’s 1.05 points per shot is actually pretty good.
But Barry has attempted over 78% of his shots from behind the arc (61 of 78) And his shooting efficiency is lower this season than in any of his four seasons with the Spurs.
It’s hard to complain about a team that is 2nd is the Western Conference standings right now – unless the Lakers are 1st.
Jordan
January 13, 2009
Dberri, just a heads up, you don’t have a link to your Milwaukee team review in the midseason analysis page for this season.
Thanks!
dberri
January 13, 2009
Jordan,
The page is updated now. I kind of let that slide for awhile.
don
January 14, 2009
Well, Duncan isn’t as young as he used to be. Isn’t it typical for NBA big men to start to decline a bit in their early 30’s?
Tommy_Grand
January 14, 2009
The Spurs would be worse had they added Cory Maggette instead of Roger Mason, Jr. SA’s current roster is deeper than years past and they will be dangerous in the playoffs. But I dont see enough to surpass LA in a 7-game series. Although the Spurs are clearly one of the best 8 teams in the league, I doubt they are one of the best 4.
Peter
January 14, 2009
Don,
You’re on the right track.
Shaq and KG both declined in productivity in the year they turned 30. Elton Brand is getting there.
However, Duncan is still posting up 20 and 10 numbers, like the other guys, for the time being.
Come to think of it, Duncan played four years of college ball, has never played less than 80% of the games in a season, and his teams never lose in the first round of the playoffs.
The anti-Tracy McGrady, if you will.
Jason
January 14, 2009
Shouldn’t the Spurs be lauded for their consistency rather derided for being repetitive? I would guess that any NBA team would kill to be as “boring” as the Spurs have been throughout the last decade.
Daniel
January 14, 2009
Parker missed 9 games and Ginobili missed 12. At 36 games, that’s 1/4 and 13 of the season, respectively. If they play the rest of the season, as expected, there are an extra 1.5 wins from Parker and another 2.5 wins from Ginobili. Oberto also has been badly injured, has missed 1/3 of the season, and is on pace to produce 0 wins, as opposed to his 6 from last season. If he returns to form (and Ginobili remembers how to shoot 3-pointers), this is a 60-win team, though they won’t win 60 this year.
The Spurs have played many of the most exciting games in the NBA this season. Every team gets up for them, and the intensity and passion of both teams coupled with mistake-free basketball makes for a pretty entertaining product. Who wants to watch 20 turnovers and badly missed midrange jumpers? The “boring” label is getting pretty tired.
Tommy_Grand
January 14, 2009
“Every team gets up for them”
Do you have evidence to support this assertion, or is it merely a non-falsifiable hypothesis?
I suspect teams get up for the Lakers and Celtics more than SA. But I will retract that view if the evidence shows (or suggests) otherwise.
Jacob Rosen
January 14, 2009
I have been hearing some Marcus Camby to the Cleveland Cavaliers trade rumors…. I know you are a fan of Camby. How good do you think that would make the Cavaliers, and would that make them the obvious favorite for the title?
Michael
January 14, 2009
Unfortunately Jacob they already seem like favourites for the title
Tommy_Grand
January 14, 2009
“Marcus Camby to the Cleveland Cavaliers trade … would that make them the obvious favorite for the title”
Depends who the Cavs lose, IMO
Jacob Rosen
January 14, 2009
“The Clippers are in the midst of a ten-game losing streak, and the Cavaliers might benefit from making a run at the center.
Some around the league believe that the Cavaliers might be able to land Camby for a deal centered around Wally Szczerbiak and a first-round draft pick.”
That is courtesy of the News-Herald, and this was also reported on RealGM.
Peter
January 14, 2009
That would certainly be a sound deal for Cleveland, given the circumstances surround Big Z. Camby is more likely to make a contribution than a late first-round pick.
But then again, the Cavaliers already own arguably the best efficiency differential in the league. Is it wise for Danny Ferry to try and tinker with a roster that’s working splendidly?
If he’s going to give James a championship-caliber cast for the foreseeable future, relying too heavily upon a soon to be 35 year old doesn’t sound like a solid long-term investment.
Well, Szcerbiak is going on 32.
I say that there’s too much riding on this season with LeBron’s future and too much success here and now to execute a really colossal trade. The deal can work, but Camby needs to play as a role player, a part in which he has usually done some of his most productive work.
Not to mention, he needs to mesh with Big Ben and Z when they return from injury. Oh, and one of the three will have to come off the bench.
Evan
January 14, 2009
Camby for Wally Z? Easiest trade eva.
EJFischer
January 14, 2009
Well, they might not, over the course of a season or a playoff series be good enough to beat the Lakers. But–sample size of 1–they were good enough tonight!
That game was anything but boring.
Daniel
January 15, 2009
Yeaaaah Eugene!!!
Scott
January 16, 2009
Wow. The Spurs winning consistently year after year is boring.
I guess that Celtic run from 1959-1966 when they won 52 to 62 games each season was repetitive and thus, boring.
I guess that Celtic lineup of Bill Russell, KC Jones and Sam Jones was repetitive and thus, boring.
Peter
January 16, 2009
Look at it this way, Scott:
As long as Tim Duncan anchors the low post, Greg Popovich is the coach, and R.C. Buford the GM, it’s either being boring or being insane* for those who watch the Spurs.
*As defined by Albert Einstein
merl
January 20, 2009
Since the spurs always start late and finish strong (or that seems to be the mantra), would it be possible to compare these spurs and their production so far this year with the first half of the year for spurs gone by?
Tim
February 3, 2009
You wrote:
“In each season the team has been led in Wins Produced by the exact same trio (this is the really repetitive or boring aspect of this team).”
Hmm, so Duncan, Ginobili and Parker leading the Spurs makes them repetitive or boring.
But in 04/5, 05/6, 06/7, 07/8 the Suns were led by the “exact same trio” of Nash,
Stoudemire and Marion.
How is the Spurs are boring and repetive and the Suns are not doing that same time period?