Basketball players tend to be relatively consistent. At least relative to what we see in baseball and football (and some aspects of hockey), what you see from an NBA player in the past is generally what you will see in the future.
Thankfully, though, there are exceptions (after all, if there were never any changes this would not be a very interesting sport).
Each year, the biggest exception – at least in the minds of sports writers – is named the Most Improved Player (MIP) in the league. Two years ago that exception was Monta Ellis. Ellis wasn’t really the MIP in 2006-07 (at least, not according to Wins Produced), but oddly enough, he was in 2007-08. Ellis, though, could not be named MIP two years in a row since the second award might suggest the writers were wrong the first time.
This year the writers might have a similar problem. When we think of the MIP in the NBA in 2008-09, Kevin Durant has to be towards the top of the list. When we look at his per 36 minute stats (courtesy of Basketball-Reference) we see that Durant’s shooting efficiency has improved tremendously. And he is rebounding more as well. Although he is not yet the player we envisioned the night he was drafted, he’s now an above average NBA player. And as Table One reveals, his improvement with respect to Wins Produced ranks toward the top of the league this season.
Table One: The Candidates for MIP at the Midpoint of the 2008-09 season
The top name listed in Table One is Dwayne Wade. Although Wade is doing more than last year, improvement isn’t the word for what Flash has done. Wade really has just reverted to what he was before the lost season that was 2007-08. A similar story can be told for Gerald Wallace.
The next two names on the list – Luke Ridnour and Mike Bibby – are having their best seasons ever. But again, these players are mostly reverting back to form. When you compare what these players are doing to their prior career best performances, the change is quite a bit smaller.
And that bring us back to Durant. As noted in November, Durant got off to a very bad start this season. His WP48 was -0.038 after 10 games. After 41 games his mark was 0.125. This means he posted a 0.166 WP48 from game 11 to the midpoint of the season. Last season his WP48 was 0.012, so Durant has made a significant leap.
All of this might present a problem, though, for the media. I don’t think one needs Wins Produced to know Durant is much better. But last year, the same media that selects the MIP gave Durant the Rookie of the Year award. It would be very odd to say the Rookie of the Year in 2008 has become the MIP in 2009. This might be the statement, though, the sports media should make when this season is over.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Andrew Hart
February 4, 2009
Durant may deserve the award, but I don’t think he’s going to get it.
Rajon Rondo seems like a pretty worthy and likely candidate. Jameer Nelson is probably up there too if he can come back in a short enough time.
Tball
February 4, 2009
Arguably Durant is in the same boat as Bibby or Ridnour, he had a down year last year and is performing to expectation this year. He is not someone I have followed closely the past two years, but he is reverting to the player he was in college – which is obviously a good thing.
I think Devin Harris gets it this year (although I don’t know how frequently the award is given for injury returns like Wade’s). I also wouldn’t rule out a player like Nene, if Denver ends up capturing one of the top three seeds in the West, or Granger for Indiana.
Really, we should be looking at a chart of most improved PPG if we want to guess who will win.
JAW
February 4, 2009
The reason that he won’t get most improved player is that it’s not unexpected improvement. He was young last year, he had a wiry frame, etc. We expect rookies to improve, especially younger ones.
Baseball players make huge strides, between 20-25, and despite what DB says, they are quite consistent, there’s just a lot of luck involved in baseball.
I have never seen a good study of aging patterns and productivity in the NBA, but I have to imagine that Kevin Durant is not an abberation from his aging pattern.
Tommy_Grand
February 4, 2009
Durant’s recognition will be as MVP of the rookie-sophomore game. DWade should win “comeback player of the year” or somesuch.
Ryan
February 4, 2009
I think Rondo has a pretty good case to be named. Obviously he’s near the top of the list in improvement by wins produced. The media also seems to believe he is improved, thus all the Rondo/All-Star talk at the beginning of the season.
I think David makes a good point why most everyone above Rondo won’t be named MIP. I feel like guys like Green and Bargnani who are still below average won’t garner much support for such an award.
Also, guys like Chris Paul and Lebron won’t get votes, because normally the best players aren’t rewarded for their improvement as well. It’s difficult without using WP to quantify how much better these guys really are.
That leaves Rondo, West, and Millsap. All guys I could see based on these stats and the media’s portrayal bringing home the award.
ilikeflowers
February 4, 2009
“…and despite what DB says, they are quite consistent, there’s just a lot of luck involved in baseball”
lol
Ty at Bucks Diary
February 4, 2009
Isn’t it interesting that 3 of the players in your top 10 were under the same coach (PJ Carlissimo) last season, and all 3 have been free of that coach for the greater part of this season and appear to be far more productive?
Ty at Bucks Diary
February 4, 2009
Let me amend that last comment to “4 in your top 11″… I had forgotten that Delonte West spent time in Seattle last season as well. And I misspelled Carlesimo.
Peter
February 4, 2009
From a media perspective, it’s likely a two-team race between Devin Harris and Danny Granger.
Since scoring is overvalued, the fact that their averages have spiked to 20+ a game, combined with their increase in media publicity, makes them prime candidates.
Since the award is selected by sportswriters, it is likely to go to Granger, who has received more publicity as a franchise star and is 5th in the league. However, Harris is the next most realistic candidate.
gazelle
February 4, 2009
I don’t think you can consider Rondo, really all he’s done is gain some court sense and confidence. Does he have a jumper yet? No. His defense is more or the less the same from what I’ve seen, which, by the way is pretty good, I’m certainly not knocking that. But to me he just seems more aware of the fact that he is lightning quick off the dribble and is scoring easily by cutting hard to the basket as well. The bump in his assist numbers coincides with a bump in turnovers, and he is rebounding a little more and scoring a little more, but not very much. I don’t think this precipitates an MIP award.
Michael
February 4, 2009
I think Paul Millsap or Rajon Rondo would be the best choices for most improved player. I would lean towards Millsap, but I think when Boozer returns that will hurt him. Rondo on the other hand seems to have blossomed from really really good to elite, but I have heard arguments he is benefiting from the Celtics system. Imagine Chris Paul being four times as good as the average player last year and still being among the most improved this year. Amazing player.
Owen
February 4, 2009
Totally off topic, but just noticed that the Pistons failed to sell out tonight for the first time in 5 years. Interesting, that happening with their win totals down so much…
axim
February 4, 2009
I just like how even in trying to give Durant credit, Berri still tries and take shots at him just because the media already loves him.
“though he is not yet the player we envisioned the night he was drafted, he’s now an above average NBA player”
If it was broken down month by month, we would still see improvement by Durant. His January was better than his December, which was better than his November… Of course he isn’t the player we expected yet! He is 20 years old and clearly still improving. His rebounding is only getting better, and by the end of the year I wouldn’t be surprised if he is consistently getting double-doubles. Not to mention that as he gets stronger and more experienced, his assists will start to rise and his turnovers will start to drop. And his scoring is only going to get better as well, and because he is so efficient, the more shots he takes the better. So yea, I would say that when he was drafted, this is the player many people expected him to be only 1.5 years into his career
jose
February 4, 2009
what about shaq? shaq is da man!
kevin
February 5, 2009
Paul’s WP48 is .493? Holy Crap! And it’s way higher than leBron’s, who I think is the leading candidate for MVP (or at least I did before viewing that list).
kevin
February 5, 2009
“I don’t think you can consider Rondo, really all he’s done is gain some court sense and confidence.”
You say this as though those things don’t count.
Jacob Rosen
February 5, 2009
Delonte West is having a career year, but he is a fourth fiddle on the Cavaliers offensive food chart. No way he gets it, especially after missing significant time. Bargnani, Duhon, Wade, and Ridnour seem like the favorites to me. You know the media is just oooing over the idea of giving a New Yorker in Duhon the award… That’s what D’Antonio does for a point guard though.
kevin
February 5, 2009
“That’s what D’Antonio does for a point guard though.”
If your name is Duhon, that’s what he does for you. If your name is Marbury, well…
Jacob Rosen
February 5, 2009
D’Antoni. My bad haha. Marbury is an extreme exception.. But take a look at Steve Nash’s career numbers sans the “Seven Seconds or Less” offense. It isn’t that pretty, and certainly isn’t worthy of entry into the Hall of Fame.
Geoffrey Hamilton
February 5, 2009
As SI pointed out this week in their NBA wrapup, Kevin Durant has been WAY better playing his natural position SF under a new coach (vs the SG that PJC had him playing …)
So, in this particualr case a poor coaching decision greatly affected his procuctivity..
Maybe PJ let his memory of George Gervin cloud his perception of what KD sould/should be…
mr. parker
February 5, 2009
Lets not start sucking each other’s……yet, to paraphrase a line from a famous movie. Durant has had exactly one good month. Lets wait it out. Im of the opinion that he will be a little above average. I don’t see him being a consistent .2+ player though. Just one man’s opinion. He is playing right now like people expected though.
Michael
February 5, 2009
“I don’t see him being a consistent .2+ player though”
I’ll take that bet Mr Parker. I see Durant becoming a pretty solid player down the line. Over .2 but under .3, similar to Kobe. Of course he is still too young to know exactly how good he can be but I think he definitley has a lot of potential.
don
February 5, 2009
Durant is a lanky 20 year old still growing into his body. If the season ended today, his FG% would be the second best of Kobe’s career and his rebounding total would as well. I don’t know if he’ll ever be the same caliber of passer or defender, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him develop into a far more efficient scorer than Kobe.
Golden Graham
February 5, 2009
“Durant has had exactly one good month”
Nah, he’s had several, and he played decently for a few months last year.
Minstrel
February 5, 2009
Why would it be strange for a player to be the Rookie Of The Year and then, the following year, be the MIP? There’s nothing contradictory about that. It may be unusual, but it’s something one could easily expect from a great talent…being the best rookie and then making big strides from there.
Of course, the real thrust is that you don’t agree that Durant actually was the ROY last year, which is fine. It’s just silly to cast the possibility that he could win the MIP as a sign of voters foolishly contradicting themselves. ROY one year and MIP the next are not logically inconsistent beliefs.
mr. parker
February 5, 2009
graham,
By good I mean to the level a top 2 pick is expected of. He’s played this way for one month.
We’ve seen this out of Carmelo Anthony for certain stretches but overall he’s been above average in his best season. I see this as the same ceiling for Durant. They had almost the exact same freshman season of college and almost the exact same freshman season in the nba. Durant has improved to the level of Carmelo in his third season so maybe he will be better than Carmelo but for my money these two are a great comparison.
Of course what that would mean would be that Durant would be considered one of the best by the “media” but people who follow similar philosophies to the one on this site will be skeptical of his overall contribution to the game.
Duff Soviet Union
February 5, 2009
“Isn’t it interesting that 3 of the players in your top 10 were under the same coach (PJ Carlissimo) last season, and all 3 have been free of that coach for the greater part of this season and appear to be far more productive?”
Maybe David should change his position to “coaches don’t have much impact on player performance. Except for PJ Carlessimo.”
mr. parker
February 6, 2009
duff,
Who is the third player from Oklahoma last year? I see two, and both of those guys are now in their second year. Can we really blame P.J for being stuck with a rookie led team?
and while I’m thinking about it….
Doesn’t it make sense that this award should go to a young player who is making his first foray into .2+ territory. You aren’t really making a difference if you’re hovering around average even if you used to be a negative last year. In this respect I think Bogut deserves the award. In his fourth year, he finally breaks out to maybe being worth the pick Milwaukee used on him.
axim
February 6, 2009
mr. parker, you are stuck and have been on this whole Durant/Melo comparison thing. First of all, Durant is shooting more efficiently than Melo ever has. He is much more developed in his second year that Melo ever was, and Surant has played well for almost three months. It is just that each month keeps on getting better. If you watch Durant’s game you will see tons of room for improvement, not to mention that he has been lighting it up recently, clearly carrying this team. There is no reason to think Durant is anything like Melo, but you keep on trying to make this comparison for who knows what reason.
axim
February 6, 2009
and also
“You aren’t really making a difference if you’re hovering around average even if you used to be a negative last year.”
What?? First of all Durant is not hovering around average, he is clearly zooming by it. Secondly yes, you would make a difference if you go from bad to average. That is adding wins to your teams total. You just make yourself look like an idiot by being such a Durant hater
mrparker
February 6, 2009
axim,
I make the comparison because when you look at their numbers(basketball-reference.com) they are very similar players.
Durant
.543 .476 2.9 13.1 8.0 12.5 1.4 1.7 12.9 27.9 104
Melo
.544 .479 6.3 12.7 9.5 15.6 1.5 0.9 12.3 30.6 107
Durant is doing this in year 2 so maybe he can be better than Melo, I think this will be the case but I don’t think he will deserve the perennial all star label that is being bestowed upon him now.
IMO that his peak production will be around .2 maybe lower.
Peter
February 7, 2009
Another irony of the Seven-Seconds-or-Less Suns is that, in playing an offensive system that takes up a lot of possessions will force opposing defenses to play a lot of possessions themselves to keep up.
As a consequence of the opposing defense playing a lot of possessions, they will naturally score more points than with fewer possessions. Yet a lot of critics got hung up on those points without any account of why there were more points to begin with.
Consider the efficiency differentials of each of his Suns teams and the nature of how they came about:
2003-04: -3.5 (99.8 offense:103.3 defense)
2004-05: 8.4 (113.1 offense:104.7 defense)
2005-06: 6.3 (110.2 offense:103.9 defense)
2006-07: 8.0 (112.4 offense:104.4 defense)
2007-08: 6.4 (112.3 offense: 105.9 defense)
D’Antoni’s defenses were certainly not dominant in the peak years of the fast-paced desert offense. But they weren’t terrible, either. But, again, many members of the media thought that the Suns played absolutely no defense whatsoever.
By the way, the Lakers are averaging 103.4 points per 100 possessions defensively, which is better than D’Antoni’s teams, but not by much. However, people aren’t criticizing LA for not playing “defense” for several reasons.
First off, they play slower paced, and teams score less on them, so people automatically assume that their defense is better. Second, they are on pace to win 67 games, five better than D’Antoni’s best season in Arizona, and people assume that winners must be doing something right. And third, the Lakers are not known for losing to “defensive” teams like the Spurs…at least not yet.
John W. Davis
February 13, 2009
I never thought he would shoot so well. Ever. I have to give him props for getting it done in his second year. If he ever leaves Oklahoma City he will have a shot at winning in this league.