The Los Angeles Times has created the following web page: Best of the Web: Los Angeles Lakers. The page links to various stories about the Lakers found around the web. The stories seem to change frequently. What doesn’t seem to change are the following six sites presented at the bottom.
Riverside Press-Enterprise NBA Blog
Five of these websites have offered a comment on the Lakers trade of Vladimir Radmanovic for Adam Morrison and Shannon Brown. The one exception is the Wages of Wins Journal. Hence, in an effort to fit in at the LA Times, here are some thoughts.
The 2006 Draft
This trade was completed in February of 2009. Had it been completed in June of 2006 it would be as follows:
Lakers exchange Vladimir Radmanovic for the #3 and #25 pick in the 2006 draft. Obviously those picks turned into Morrison and Brown.
Here is how Chad Ford of ESPN.com described each pick in 2006:
Adam Morrison: ….Morrison has the star power and addresses the Bobcats’ biggest need: scoring. Morrison has the killer instinct and leadership that the Bobcats crave.
Shannon Brown: I love this pick for the Cavs. They have been keyed on Shannon Brown for a long time and thought there was no way he’d be there. Brown will give them a great penetrator and explosive athlete who can attack the basket or pull up for the 3-pointer. Put him on the floor with LeBron James and defenders are going to cower. Brown has the most potent combination of power and athleticism in the draft. I’m not sure he can play the point, but with Larry Hughes and LeBron James’ ball-handling skills, he’ll be fine.
So if this was 2006, the Lakers would be surrendering an NBA veteran who had come off the bench for most his career for a player with “star power” and “an explosive athlete who can attack the basket.” In sum, this would be described as a steal by the Lakers.
Of course there are problems with this story. Specifically, there are two reasons why this trade was not actually possible. Radmanovic did not sign with the Lakers until a few days after the 2006 draft. And even if he could have been traded by the Lakers, the two picks were held by two different teams. So unless the Cavs and Bobcats were willing to share Radmanovic, this trade couldn’t have happened. Still, just 32 months ago this move would have been celebrated in LA.
Losing Morrison and Brown
In 2009, though, it’s not clear how this move dramatically changes life for the Lakers. And that’s because Morrison and Brown have not quite lived up to their draft-day hype. Brown has only played 783 minutes in his NBA career and has produced -1.8 wins (yes that is a negative sign). His career WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] currently stands at -0.108. One is tempted to say this is the worst career mark in NBA history. But then one turns to Adam Morrison.
The third choice in the 2006 draft finished his first season as the second leading rookie scorer. He was also named by the NBA coaches to the All-Rookie second team, finishing just shy of a first team selection. People who looked past scoring (and by people I mean John Hollinger and myself), though, noted that Morrison was extremely unproductive as a rookie. His WP48 was -0.137 and he finished last in the league in Wins Produced. After this less than auspicious debut, I made the following observation:
Given the voting record of the coaches, one wonders if Michael Jordan can take advantage of his fellow decision-makers. Although rookies tend to get better (and I should post on this in the future), Morrison is going to have to improve immensely just to become average. Perhaps it’s time for MJ to work the phones and move Morrison for a player who has already attained the status of “average NBA player.” Although average is “not good” it sure beats “very, very, bad.”
It appears that MJ has actually followed this advice (not that MJ is reading the WoW Journal). As Table One indicates, this trade allows the Bobcats to exchange two players who are well below average for a player who is quite average. So if we ignore the salary issues for a moment (I will note this in a moment), the Bobcats are better off.
Table One: Evaluating Small Forwards in LA
Helping the Lakers
What about the Lakers? The coverage of this trade at the sites noted by the LA Times explains the Lakers’ motivation. With Trevor Ariza and Luke Walton on the roster, Radmanovic had seen his playing time vanish. Assuming this situation persists beyond 2008-09, the Lakers were scheduled to pay a player more than $13 million beyond this season who might not be able to get off the bench. Brown’s contract expires at the end of this season and Morrison is only scheduled to be paid $5.3 million next year. So LA has clearly saved on future salaries.
Whether this trade actually helps the Lakers on the court this season depends on who takes the few minutes given to Radmanovic. Since departing the starting line-up, Radmanovic has received about 8 minutes per contest. Across the last 33 games, this would be about 264 minutes. As one can see in Table One, if these minutes go to Ariza the Lakers are better off (by about 0.8 wins). If they go to Walton, though, the Lakers are a bit worse off (by about -0.4 wins). And if they go to Morrison…. yes, that won’t help (-1.1 wins less).
Of course, it’s possible the change in scenery will help Morrison and Brown. Currently I am reading “Sacred Hoops” by Phil Jackson. In this book Jackson argues that the triangle offense can enhance a player’s productivity. Although in general coaches don’t have much impact on performance, there is some evidence that Jackson is an exception. So maybe the Zen Master can make a difference.
Of course, it’s going to have to be a substantial “difference” for Morrison to become a productive NBA player. Barring such a transformation, it might be best for Morrison to stay on the Lakers bench. And if that happens – and Ariza spends less time sitting – this trade could help the Lakers some. In sum, it’s possible that this trade could help both parties.
Let me close by briefly noting that I have no idea how long the link to The Wages of Wins Journal at the LA Times will be operating. Still, it’s nice to see this forum listed by the LA Times.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Table One: Evaluating Small Forwards in LA
Wages of Wins Journal 
AWC
February 8, 2009
Let’s also remember that the coach of the Bobcats is Larry Brown. Despite his failure in NYC, he’s a comparatively shrewd talent evaluator and very good at using role players. This move has his prints all over it.
Peter
February 8, 2009
Might distant UNC connections also have something to do with it?
The Bobcats’ Tar Heel ties are well documented, but Mitch Kupchak also played for Dean Smith back in college.
Okay, okay, it’s silly and there would obviously be motives beyond North Carolina bonds. But it’s trivia to keep in mind.
stephanie
February 8, 2009
Does the loss of Jameer Nelson for the remainder of the year (dislocated shoulder) pretty much quash Orlando’s chance at a title? I’m guessing yes, but it wouldn’t be the first time the WoW surprised me.
Lior
February 8, 2009
The “Table One” link leads to a page-not-found error.
Peter
February 8, 2009
Yes. Wins Produced confirms that Nelson was in between an above average player and a superstar this season, and that the Magic are replacing him with an average player in Tyronn Lue this season.
His spike in productivity was related to his ability to hit shots this year.
dberri
February 8, 2009
Lior,
Thanks. I think it works now.
mr. parker
February 9, 2009
When a trade that involves a number 3 pick who is still on his first contract and it doesn’t make headlines that is a signal. I thought the Lakers were the swindlers of the league. They got swindled on this one. Unless Adam Morrison pulls a…….I can’t think of any player who played as poorly as him and went on to be productive that isn’t a point guard.
Johnny
February 9, 2009
Its a salary cap dump, They weren’t swindled at all. Neither player will see any significant minutes in the rotation.
mr. parker
February 9, 2009
Swindle is too strong of a word for what I intended to convey. When just considering the players in the deal, Charlotte got the better end of the deal.
Michael
February 9, 2009
Despite being around average this year according to this site Radmanovic had a -0.023 WP48 in 07-08. Taking this into account along with his salary and the fact he plays the same position as Ariza this isn’t really a bad trade for the Lakers. Maybe they would have been better off just buying him out, but I guess that depends on how many minutes Morrison gets.
Either way the Lakers are still tops in the league right now with or without Vlad :-D
Tball
February 9, 2009
Michael,
NBA buyouts typically have a player dropping a small percentage of the money owed them to terminate the contract (e.g., Marbury would only except a buyout if the Knicks paid all but $1m of the $20m or so due to him this season). Instead of owing Radmanovic about $16m over this season and future seasons, the Lakers are on the hook to Morrison/Brown for about $8m. A buyout would have been more expensive. With the deal, the Lakers saved more money than they could have with a buyout and took a flyer on two guys that Jackson can evaluate. If one works out, great, if not, there is no real loss.
From a Celtics’ fan, here’s hoping Morrison takes Vlad’s time and steals a little from Ariza. 8)
Michael
February 9, 2009
Hi TBall I understand what your saying but I meant from a basketball perspective (not financial) when I said that. Given how badly Morrison and Brown have been the Laker team may have been better if the just gave Vlad away for nothing! But from a financial perspective you’re right this trade is a slam dunk..assuming Morrison doesn’t get to see much daylight.
BettorFan
February 9, 2009
This is a great trade – one of the few that actually surface.
Joe
February 9, 2009
If LA has no interest in playing Morrison, terrific trade for them.
Peter
February 10, 2009
…or Shannon Brown.
Anon
February 10, 2009
Has there ever been someone picked 3rd in the draft who is even close to being as bad as Morrison?
Jason E
February 10, 2009
Chris Washburn was pretty terrible.
don
February 10, 2009
Lenny Bias?
Too soon?
Phil
February 10, 2009
Darko Milicic springs to mind.
2003 Draft:
1. Lebron
2. Darko
3. Wade, Bosh, etc
Joe
February 10, 2009
Anon, specifically 3rd? Or more top 5?
If you look at the 1st overall pick from that 2006 draft, you will see a pretty poor player as well.
Andy
February 10, 2009
Morrison’s not even the worst pick Michael Jordan has made. Kwame Brown (1st overall) has got to be industry standard for worst pick in the last decade at least.
Morrison and Brown are highly unlikely to get anything beyond garbage time this season unless Morrison can quickly start hitting the open looks from 3 he should get with Kobe/Pau drawing a lot of doubles. If he doesn’t, the ‘stache will be glued to the pine.
By the way, can anyone else tell me why Walton has been getting more minutes at Ariza’s expense of late? Sure, Ariza’s not a great shooter and Phil loves Luke’s passing, but Luke can’t shoot either (he’s worse in fact) and brings none of the other things Ariza does. Seeing that Walton’s win score was below even Vladi’s tells you something is more than a little off with his game.
kevin
February 10, 2009
There’ve been #1 picks as bad or worse than Morrison. Larue Martin springs to mind. Danny Ferry was a #2. Dennis Hopson washed out…
Let’s stick to the #3 picks and pick out the dogs from the last 30 yrs:
2000-Darius Miles
1990-Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf (Chris jackson)
1987 -Dennis Hopson
1986 -Chris Washburn (poster boy for infamous draft)
1985- Benoit Benjamin (he had an Ok career but I’m putting him on the list anyway on principle)
1978-Rick Robey (got a ring but his beer swilling got him an early exit)