As of Sunday night the top four teams in the NBA – in terms of efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) – were as follows:
1. Cleveland Cavaliers [10.8]
2. Boston Celtics (9.9)
3. Orlando Magic (9.0)
4. LA Lakers [8.8]
And here are the next four teams:
5. Portland Trail Blazers (3.9)
6. San Antonio Spurs (3.4)
7. Denver Nuggets (3.3)
8. Houston Rockets (3.1)
As we have known for some time, the top four teams in the league have clearly separated themselves from the pack. So it seems a good bet that the eventual NBA champion will reside in Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, or LA. This means there is a chance – if Cleveland or Orlando finish on top — the Larry O’Brien trophy will move to a city it has never been to before. And this is something that doesn’t happen often in the NBA. Of the 29 cities currently hosting an NBA team, fifteen have never hosted an NBA champion.
Of the two upstarts, Cleveland currently has the best chance. In fact, LeBron and the Cavs are the current favorites.
Losing Nelson
That being said, Orlando – the subject of today’s post — does have a chance. This chance, though, was recently diminished by the injury to Jameer Nelson. As Table One notes, Nelson has been the second most productive player on the Magic. The loss of such player – coupled with the strength of the competition in the East – suggests that the Magic will be the team left out of the conference championship in the East.
Table One: The Orlando Magic in 2008-09 after 50 games
From Table One we see that Nelson posted a 0.256 WP48 this season. His replacements at the guard spot – Anthony Johnson, Tyronn Lue, and (maybe) J.J. Reddick – all hover around the 0.100 mark (Lue has typically hovered around the average mark). Given how many minutes Nelson played per game this season, it looks like the Magic need to replace 1,000 minutes the rest of the way. A bit of simple math reveals that moving from 0.256 to 0.100 across 1,000 minutes will cost the Magic about 3.3 wins. And this moves the Magic from about 63 wins to about 60.
Before Nelson was hurt it seemed unlikely Orlando would finish ahead of Boston or Cleveland. The injury to Nelson appears to seal this fate. But it doesn’t cost the Magic the third seed. The current fourth seed in the East – the Atlanta Hawks – boasted a 1.5 efficiency differential on Sunday night. Such a mark would rank 9th in the Western Conference (and is well behind the Magic). So although Orlando has lost its second most productive player, it looks like this injury will not cost the Magic its current playoff position.
Winning in Orlando
Certainly the third seed in the playoffs is quite good. This is especially the perspective of the teams ranked lower than Orlando. That being said, Orlando is relatively close to the other top teams in the NBA. And although the loss of Nelson doesn’t help, there might be some things this team could do right now to close the gap and better contend for a title in 2009. Here are two possibilities:
1. Trade Rashard Lewis
Yes, Lewis is an All-Star. And if he was playing small forward, that selection might be justified. But Orlando plays Lewis at power forward, and at that position he has problems. So why not send him to Phoenix for the disgruntled Amare Stoudemire (ESPN’s trade machine says this works)? This would give the Magic a legitimate power forward. And it would give the Suns…well, I am not sure how this helps the Suns. This post is about the Magic, though, so we will skip that detail.
If the Suns won’t deal, here are two other trades that could also help:
Send Lewis to the Utah Jazz for Carlos Boozer (assuming he gets healthy) and Matt Harpring (this is not a good trade for Utah)
OR
Send Lewis and Brian Cook to the New York Knicks for David Lee and Stephon Marbury (not sure the Magic should play Marbury, though).
2. Finding Help on the Bench
One could play with the Trade Machine all day. Although that’s fun, it’s quite possible the Magic would not want to do anything to break-up a 60 win team. So what else can Orlando do to close the gap?
Here is an idea that might be filed under “thinking outside the box.”
Looking back at Table One we see one very productive player who is not getting minutes. As I noted last December, Marcin Gortat has demonstrated in very limited minutes that he can help. At that time Gortat has posted a 0.267 WP48 in 133 minuutes. Gortat has now played 321 minutes and his WP48 is 0.269. The sample is still quite small. But it looks like Gortat — who currently is the second most productive player on a per-minute basis on the Magic (if we ignore the 29 minutes Adonal Foyle has played)– can help.
Of course we can’t be sure Gortat will be productive in extended minutes (although there is some evidence that he can). It does appear, though, that playing Gortat more could yield substantial benefits.
The alternative to this strategy – barring a trade – is to keep doing what the Magic have been doing. That strategy, though, appears to leave the Magic just short of the Cavaliers and Celtics. And that probably means no title comes to Orlando in 2009.
So I think it’s time to play Gortat. The upside is the Magic will move closer to an Eastern Conference title. And the downside… well, there really isn’t one. It appears there is nothing Atlanta can do to close its gap with Orlando.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
stephanie
February 10, 2009
Gortat! AKA “The White Dwight.” Or so I hear.
PJ
February 10, 2009
Hmmm… that Rashard Lewis deal still doesn’t look too good. I don’t see anyone trading for him. 5 more years? At that salary? In this economy. Unlikely.
But more Gortat sounds like fun. Make it happen Van Gundy.
romalley
February 10, 2009
I think any scenario for the Magic going forward in trying to become a true title contender would include trading Rashard Lewis. You just can’t have that much cash devoted into average production. Unfortunately all those teams you listed are in full drop cash mode. With the exception of maybe Utah. But they need to trade Lewis to be a contender. The same holds true for my Wizards and Gilbert Arenas. That’s why trade machine is so fun and maddening at the same time.
PJ
February 10, 2009
The thing is, everyone knows Rashard Lewis is basically average. And he’s got a ton of years left. What team could the Magic possibly interest?
PJ
February 10, 2009
Ok, one last thought before I go: Golden State. They’ve got a bunch of long contracts (Maggette, Jackson, Crawford), and Orlando could conceivably trade Rashard Lewis for a couple of them. Not sure that makes Orlando better, though, unless they can then flip at least one of those contracts for something else.
Joe
February 10, 2009
All you need is one GM to really want Lewis… Otis already proved it.
As for Gortat, why not?
Andrew
February 11, 2009
Lewis is a perfect fit in their system, which is dependent on having four players that stretch the floor. There aren’t many players who can make three threes a game at a 40%+ rate, and there are even fewer who can defend power forwards.
He’s obviously outmatched on the boards for his position, but playing with Howard takes away some of his opportunities. He’s been a much better rebounder since moving to Orlando, even if his rebound rate doesn’t show it because of fewer opportunities.
The Magic overpaid for Lewis, whose game has fewer dimensions than you’d expect a max-salary player to have. But he is a perfect fit in their system, which depends on having great shooters all around.
I do think that Gortat can help this team more if he gets more minutes. He’s a pretty good defender who disrupts and blocks a lot of shots, and he can definitely rebound and finish at the rim.
Johnny
February 11, 2009
No one will trade for Lewis; he is grossly overpaid for his production and his contract is very long. I doubt the magic could even give him away for almost nothing, like an expiring contract or something with the way the economy is.
Tball
February 11, 2009
How about sending Lewis to Philly for Brand and loading up for next year. Give Lewis’s minutes to Gortat and Battie. You lose out on the perimeter game, but maybe Orlando can stop getting outrebounded. Philly already seems a bit disenchanted with Brand and desparately needs outside shooting. Win-win-win.
Anon
February 11, 2009
I’d rather overpay for lewis than brand. At least you know lewis can go a whole season without getting injured. Philly won’t be able to trade brand until he shows that he’s more than a money vacuum.
jaw83
February 11, 2009
For the love of god, DB, can you explain to me how the ability to play multiple positions is considered a negative thing by you constantly? It’s not his fault where Orlando plays him.
If a baseball player is a 3rd baseman, and is an above average 3b, but he also has the ability to be a serviceable shortstop, and the team needs a shortstop, he’s really valuable. He’s more valuable than if he couldn’t play a serviceable shortstop. Why should this not hold true in basketball?
Owen
February 11, 2009
Jaw – With Rashard, the correct analogy would be an excellent hitting shortstop who can also play third base if needed, rather than the other way around. His stats would be good as a shortstop, but just average at third base (pf), which is a far more offensively productive position.
Check out “Rashard Lewis Goes to Orlando” for more….
Ethan
February 11, 2009
Off-topic, but it’s time for a mea culpa from Berri and all the posters on this site who bashed Durant. I love stats too, they tell a lot, but nothing substitutes for watching actual games and knowing something about the various extraneous influences that can affect a players production.
For those of us who actually watched Durant play on a consistent basis, his current dominance is not suprising. All the signs were there. That’s why the arrogance some posters displayed on this site in the “Miss for the Thunder” post a few months back was so infuriating.
Owen
February 11, 2009
Ethan – Sort of a bizarre stance on your part. Did you read the recent post in which DB said Durant should be the MIP?
Most people who read this site expected Durant to be very good given his college production. And I don’t think anyone is surprised (or unhappy) that he is playing better these days.
There is a difference between saying a player hasn’t played well and saying he will never play well. No one ever said the latter….
Phil
February 11, 2009
Lewis isn’t a Jerry Sloan type player. Pretty tough to see him going to the Jazz, especially considering his inferior production and heftier contract.
Ethan, Durant was really struggling. Everyone in the whole world knew that. Now he’s gotten better. Doesn’t take a statistical genius to deduce that one. Where did Berri, or anyone, imply that is not possible? Especially considering his college production, everyone expected better things to come. Shooting 40% and pulling down 2 boards a game was a big surprise.
Tommy_Grand
February 11, 2009
“In fact, LeBron and the Cavs are the current favorites.”
What are the cavs ‘odds of winning it all versus the lakers’ odds? Isn’t the lakers path easier?
kevin
February 11, 2009
“Lewis isn’t a Jerry Sloan type player. ”
You think so? I think Lewis would be perfect in Utah. Sloan uses that old Dick Motta system of funneling the scoring opportunities to the forwards. Lewis would love that. And I think Sloan would like Lewis’ defense too.
I’m not getting your point there, Phil. Please elaborate.
Tommy_Grand
February 11, 2009
Vegas has LA as the favorite.
Peter
February 11, 2009
Dave, try this one:
Lewis goes to Chicago for Tyrus Thomas, Joakim Noah, and Kirk Hinrich.
In one fell swoop, it guarantees that Anthony Johnson will be relegated to third-string for the foreseeable future, provides a low-post high energy player in Noah, an athletic frontcourt player in Thomas, allows Lewis to move to small forward with guys like Drew Gooden, Aaron Gray, and maybe even Luol Deng on tap, AND provides Derrick Rose with a running mate.
See, Otis Smith, I can do it, it’s not hard.
Tommy_Grand
February 11, 2009
I like that trade (Thomas Noah Hinrich) for Orlando.
Peter
February 11, 2009
Another one that would have a lot of potential is:
Orlando sends J.J. Redick, Lewis, and Gortat to Miami for Shawn Marion and Michael Beasley.
After half a season, it’s too early to make a call on Beasley’s career. But Pat Riley showed evidence of not being overly eager to pick him 2nd overall due to maturity issues.
While the trade takes away a capable big man in Gortat, it takes care of this issue by sending in Marion, who is capable of playing small forward and power forward.
And Marion’s deal expires in a year while Beasley’s could extend up to four with various options.
Miami gets a big body in Gortat that will compete for big minutes right away. And because Udonis Haslem already has the size of an NBA power forward, it allows Lewis to make the move to small forward, the position normally held by Marion/Beasley.
Redick wouldn’t compete for minutes. However, his rookie contract expires in 2010, which would allow at least a little wiggle room in free agency (As an aside, Gortat is an expiring contract this year.)
Beasley would be a bench guy behind Hedo Turkoglu and Marion.
Joe
February 11, 2009
I’ll add my unchecked trade…
Best idea I can come up with is Jared Jeffries, Eddy Curry, Malik Rose and David Lee for Rashard, Battie. JJ for Nate swap as well?
Basically Orlando gets the best player, Lee, and cuts 6 million in payroll for next year with the Rose, Battie swap so when they extend DLee it hurts a little less.
New York gets a DAntoni fit in Rashard and don’t lose any 2010 cap space since they would have had Curry and Jeffries sitting in those spots. In addition, they get a “productive player” back for Lee. And beyond 2010’s free agency dollars don’t matter to New York since they won’t be back under the cap for 10 years. Orlando probably naively thinks Rashard is better than Lee though making this not work for them.
And I think New York can get more value than they are getting for Lee and/or Curry making this deal not so good for them.
Peter
February 11, 2009
Another idea would be leaving Lewis alone and making a trade that would allow him to move to small forward. In turn, this would move Turkoglu to shooting guard and keep Tyronn Lue at point.
To that end, the Magic could trade Tony Battie to Phoenix for Leandro Barbosa and Louis Amundson. The Suns are desperate to cut costs, and this move allows the Magic to get a decent shooting guard to solidify that position.
Amundson could fill time at power forward and allow the Magic to juggle between Lue, Barbosa, Turkoglu, and Lewis in their frontcourt. Or the aforementioned could play together while Amundson is on the bench. If neither Amundson nor Gortat can get quality minutes, doesn’t follow Win Scores’ recommendation to put Lewis at small forward. But it’s worth considering.
Don’t forget about Mickael Pietrus, either.
Andrew
February 12, 2009
The Magic are pretty much my favorite team outside of the hometown T-Wolves, so I’ll just throw in my two cents.
A lot of the Magic’s offensive efficiency is predicated on unique spacing that having the game’s best big man and a lineup that contains interchangeable 40% three-point shooters allows. When the Magic are rolling, they force you to choose between a 60% Dwight Howard shot attempt against a single defender, or a 40% three-point attempt (which obviously is the same as a 60% two-point attempt, in the long run) when Howard kicks the ball out when he gets double teamed.
Even when they play Battie at the four with Howard at center, he generally spaces the floor similarly as Lewis (he just is in the 17-20 foot range where he’s comfortable, instead of beyond the arc; the reason that Orlando wanted Brian Cook was so that he could keep their spacing when the second unit was on the floor, but obviously that hasn’t worked out so well).
This means that Orlando is not so great in offensive rebounding percentage, because during a lot of their shot attempts, Dwight Howard is the only Magic player near the paint. They actually have pretty good size and skills on the defensive glass when they’re playing Pietrus/Lee, Turkoglu, Lewis, and Howard; their defensive rebound rate is actually the third-best in the league, behind only Boston and San Antonio.
Anyway, the point to all this is that their offensive system hinges on having a player who is both one of the best volume three-point shooters and capable of guarding fours. If they trade Lewis for a more traditional post player, they lose the spacing that makes them not just effective, but one of the most efficient offensive squads in the NBA.
Andrew
February 12, 2009
Also, I think that dealing for Lue was the best that the Magic could do. The other PGs out there were more expensive, and don’t give them knock-down three point ability that their system demands.
They’re going to suffer from Nelson’s loss, but I don’t think their key contributors have reached critical age where they need to blow this thing up in order to go for it this year. Their championship window is just opening, and even if they did go for it, there are still three other historically excellent teams in the championship hunt this year, so it’s no sure thing.
They just need to make sure that they can sign Turkoglu for a reasonable amount, because he’s got a player option for only seven mill next year. They should be willing to sign him through 2012-13, since that’s when most of their core is signed through. He’s another unique player who makes their system work.
If they can get him signed, they will have a great foundation, as well as assets like the expiring contracts of Battie and Cook (assuming he accepts his $3.5MM player option) that they could package with J.J. Redick or Courney Lee and a future first-rounder to match salaries for a slashing wing player at SG.
Owen
February 12, 2009
Andrew – Interesting analysis. In a perfect world we would be able to slot Lee, Varejao, Millsap, or Landry in there for Rashard, which would also free up an extra 7-10 million in cap space. Does that make them a truly dominant defense (which is hard to believe since they are already second best of course) Do the extra offensive rebounds make up for the loss of Lewis’ 58.4% ts%. Can those guys get enough putback opportunities next to Howard to do their thing?
To me, the Magic attack currently has a kind of philosophical logic that people love, similar to the 7SOL offense. But I am not convinced they couldn’t do just as well or better with other kinds of players next to Dwight.
Andrew
February 12, 2009
Next year, if the Suns are cutting bait, might Battie’s and Cook’s expiring contracts paired with J.J. Redick (or maybe Courtney Lee) be enough for the last two years on Jason Richardson’s deal? J-Rich would be the ideal three-point shooting slasher who can also take it to the rim in the Magic system. Pietrus is a great defensive energy guy, but he can’t really penetrate with the ball on offense. If the Magic had three guys who could go to the lane in Nelson, Turkoglu, and Richardson, they could be super dangerous.
mrparker
February 12, 2009
Just read Bill Simmons’ 09′ trade value chart. It would be interesting if Mr. Berri were to write a column commenting on that article.
Phil
February 12, 2009
Kevin,
Sloan is a coach that really emphasizes the non-scoring aspects of the game, especially rebounding, and in those respects Lewis is not that impressive. He’s also not a physical player at all; again not a good Sloan fit. I’d actually like to see it happen, just to see Sloan shake his head when Lewis fails to give a hard foul to prevent a layup for the umpteenth time.
I’m not sure what you mean by describing Utah as a team that “funnels scoring opportunities to the forward”, can you explain? Utah runs flex with a ton of wrinkles, but their offense is largely predicated on hard screens and cuts, and generating interior and mid-range shots. It’s more about what you can do without the ball than what you can do with it. Lewis is much more suited to an open floor, drink-and-dish game. Hence his offensive flourish the spread out Orlando offense.
Plus, Larry Miller ain’t going over the cap, and Utah has a ton of players that they’ll want to resign in the next few years. The contract is what seals it. Utah would like Lewis for the right price – who wouldn’t? – but overpaying someone that doesn’t fit or produce well enough isn’t going to happen.
John W. Davis
February 13, 2009
This post is about the Magic, though, so we will skip that detail.
HAHA
Prof D. We need Amare in Detroit for Rasheed Wallace. Make that happen please!