Today is the trade deadline. So the obvious topic of choice is a discussion of a specific trade (or trades). Unfortunately, most of the trades were really not that interesting (at least to me). The one possible exception was the Jermaine O’Neal for Shawn Marion trade. But in thinking about this transaction it occurred to me that I have already noted – as the following posts indicate– that Jermaine O’Neal is not quite as good as people think (a conclusion I think Toronto now understands).
Sam Mitchell Learns that Bad Shopping can get you Fired
The Other Side of the Indiana-Toronto Trade
The Most Overpaid in the NBA in 2007-08
Helping Bargnani
So in an effort to avoid repeating myself (too much), I am going to start the discussion by focusing on a Raptor who might benefit from O’Neal’s departure. As the last post in this list indicates, O’Neal was the Most Overpaid Player in 2007-08. The second player on that list is Andrea Bargnani. And in thinking about the O’Neal-Marion trade, I found my thoughts turning to the idea that Bargnani is now going to be permanently thrust into Toronto’s starting line-up.
Bargnani has actually been starting for the Toronto since December 31. But I think that’s because of injuries to O’Neal and Chris Bosh. With O’Neal permanently out of the picture, Bargnani is now going to be the starting the center on this team.
Bargnani was the first player taken in the 2006 draft. And generally, when we think of the top choice in a draft, we think of a star. At the minimum, we think of a starter. But thus far Bargnani has only started 92 times in the first 199 NBA games he has played. Relative to other number one selections — like Shaq, The Admiral, LeBron, Yao – it’s clear that Bargnani has not quite lived up to the standards of the number one pick. But how bad has he been?
There have been a few “busts” at the top of the draft. Certainly Kwame Brown and Michael Olowokandi didn’t live up to expectations. But if we look at the numbers, Bargnani still has a way to go to even reach the lofty standards of Kwame and the Kandi-Man.
Table One: Evaluating the Number One Pick in the NBA Draft in the Lottery Era
Table One reports the performance of each number one pick – in the lottery era (since 1985) — after three seasons in the NBA. Bargnani’s WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] this season is -0.059. Such a mark puts him on pace to produce -3.1 wins this season. When we add this production to what Bargnani did his first two years in the league, we see that the number one pick of the 2006 draft could finish his third campaign with -8.1 Wins Produced. Such a mark easily is the lowest level of output of any number one pick taken since 1985. Yes, even Brown and Olowokandi surpassed the production of Bargnani.
One should emphasize that this is not the story if we focus on scoring. Both Kwame and the Kandi Man were below average scorers. In contrast, Bargnani produces points at an above average rate. Unfortunately – as Table Two indicates – he is well below average on the boards (and with respect to steals). Consequently, Bargnani – like Eddy Curry (another scoring center who is not very productive) – doesn’t help his team win.
Table Two: Evaluating Andrea Bargnani
Despite this lack of production, though, Bargnani is going to start at center for the Raptors. So although the acquisition of Marion helps (yes, Marion does more than O’Neal), the loss of Jamario Moon – and the potential increase in Bargnani’s minutes – is going to hurt. Consequently, it’s possible that the O’Neal-Marion could be one of those rare trades that hurts everyone involved.
More on the Trade
To see how much this trade helps or hurts, though, we should look at a few more numbers. Here is what each player in the trade has done this season (at the All-Star Break):
Shawn Marion: 0.219 WP48
Marcus Banks: 0.006 WP48
Jermaine O’Neal: 0.034 WP48
Jamario Moon: 0.208 WP48
Given these numbers, here are some quick thoughts on the trade:
Miami Heat: O’Neal – as noted before – is not quite the player he was a few years ago. So adding him doesn’t help the Heat this season (O’Neal’s contract does come off the books in 2010, so Miami remains a player in the 2010 free agent market). Moon’s WP48 of 0.208 is only eclipsed on the Heat by Dwyane Wade. So if the Heat gave some minutes to Moon, the loss of Marion could be somewhat offset. Unfortunately for Heat fans, Moon got less than five minutes of playing time in his first game with Miami. If this first game is indicative of how much Moon will play, then it’s likely this trade doesn’t help Miami in 2008-09 (although, the team does get a first round pick sometime in the future, so that might help sometime in the future).
Toronto Raptors: Marion is a small upgrade over Moon on a per-minute basis. Plus, Marion will get more minutes. So that clearly helps. Moon and O’Neal, though, averaged 55 minutes per game. This means that someone on this team is about to get more playing time. As noted, if that’s Bargnani, the Raptors are not helped. The same story would be told if that someone is Jason Kapano. At this point it’s not entirely clear how minutes will be allocated (especially since Bosh is out). Still, looking over the numbers it doesn’t look to me that this trade is enough to get the Raptors in the playoffs this season. And if that doesn’t happen, then the Raptors just traded a future first round pick – and a very productive player in Moon – for the right to stop paying Jermaine O’Neal (a player they shouldn’t have volunteered to pay in the first place).
In sum, this trade clearly doesn’t help the Heat (at least, not this season). And it may not help the Raptors. It might, though, help Bargnani. With his ability to score, this trade might give him enough additional playing time to boost his scoring totals. Given how salaries are determined in the NBA, it’s entirely possible that this trade will increase the chances of Bargnani cashing in on a significant pay raise in the future. So although both fans of the Heat and Raptors might not be happier, Bargnani – a player who is currently the least productive number one pick in the lottery era – may someday look back at this trade as something that led to much future happiness.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Michael
February 20, 2009
Wow…David Robinson was a beast!
Andrew Alexander
February 20, 2009
In that first table, are you taking into account everybody’s whole career? LeBron does not look too good in this.
Andrew Alexander
February 20, 2009
My Bad, first three years..
Andrew Alexander
February 20, 2009
My opinion is that O’Neal will be rejuvenated playing next to Dwayne Wade. Hopefully we can track O’Neal’s efficiency now that he is on the Heat.
Daniel
February 20, 2009
O’Neal has never scored efficiently or been a great rebounder. The way he can be a net positive for the Heat is by helping them play Magloire, Joel Anthony, and Blount as little as possible. The Heat are paying $40 million this season for five centers that will give them seven wins/year– all from Haslem. Haslem is a good 4, but he’s not an adequate center. A tandem of fairly paid average centers gives a team somewhere in the realm of 10 wins in a season for $15-$20 million. This is the reason the Heat just aren’t good.
Moon is a great pickup, though, as he can produce as much as Marion at 1/24 the price. Toronto was just stupid to give up somebody like that.
SWaN
February 20, 2009
I really wish Berri was wrong! But sadly his earlier forecast for for 36 wins for the Raptors may even have been optimistic.
I don’t believe Colangelo read Wages of Win, he still values 1 dimensional scorers too highly.
Many of Raptor’s fans also value scoring exclusively. Many were happy to see Moon go because he is not a scorer.
Raptor’s future appears dim with Kapono’s and Bargnani’s negative contributions until another GM arrives to move them.
Arturo
February 20, 2009
You know what kills me about Colangelo is that he has already been shown the way in Phoenix. You need efficient scores to run and gun succesfully (this is, in one sentence and oversimplified, D’antoni’s coaching philosophy).
What’s really fascinating is that given the way the wrong things are being emphazised in the NBA and argument could be made that there remains a large population of good players that are not making NBA rosters and that we are fostering the development of bad skill sets in the developing players in the US.
In contrast with world & European players the other facets of the game are enphasized. This is why you’ll play Croatia and have all these 6-10 players who can shoot pass & dribble.
I have a feeling that if we could put mid-level NBA teams to play in the Euroleague Championships we might be extremely surprised at the results (i.e we might have better 1-2 players but they’ll get creamed 3-12) . Long term this bodes I’ll for our chances in the olympics or the world championships.
Rob O'Malley
February 20, 2009
Hey Dave the previous post on GMs using statistical methods for evaluating players like adjusted +/- and the Colangelo comment above makes me wonder… has any GM contacted you to inquire about your formula?
Or do you see any evidence that an NBA might use your formula? Sadly I think your words are definitely not heard in the league. And here’s why…
(from ESPN insider)
Close On Camby
Thursday’s trade deadline came and went without an audible peep from the Spurs.
“There were like five or six things we almost did — huge trades,” Gregg Popovich said with sarcasm. “At the very last minute, we said no to all of them.”
According to multiple league sources, however, the Spurs did come precariously close to prying shot-blocking center Marcus Camby from to Clippers. The two sides discussed a deal that would have sent Fabricio Oberto, Bruce Bowen and George Hill to L.A., but the deal fell apart late in the day. — San Antonio Express-News
If a brilliantly run team like San Antonio thinks that is too much for Camby then I have no hope. Bowen and Oberto are negative producers.
Peter
February 20, 2009
The real issue with the 2006 draft was that it lacked that one “breakaway” prospect who could really set himself apart from the rest of the pack. Sure, there was Brandon Roy, but even then, he wasn’t a top-5 selection. Neither was Rajon Rondo.
Also, it was the first draft to test the one-and-done rule, so prospects like Greg Oden and Kevin Durant were off the board entirely.
In that vein, 2009 looks to be very similar to the draft from twelve years ago, when every lottery team had their eye on Tim Duncan. There isn’t even a “1a” talent like there was in the last two drafts who provides a decent consolation prize. Sure, plenty of next-tier talent, but no real competitor to Blake Griffin.
Rob O'Malley
February 20, 2009
I think Blake Griffin is the easy number one. But if DeJuan Blair comes out he will make some mid to late first round team very happy. He should be a lottery pick.
Michael
February 20, 2009
“If a brilliantly run team like San Antonio thinks that is too much for Camby then I have no hope. Bowen and Oberto are negative producers.”
I can see your point here but consider the fact that George Hill is a decent player already, and at 22 years old he has a lot of potential. Contrast this with Camby, who is an injury prone 34 year old who basically plays the same position as Tim Duncan. Oberto and Bowen may be negative according to wins produced this year, but in reality they are decent role players with championship experience. I think despite the fact that Camby has been very productive this year I agree that the Spurs are right not to part with George Hills potential, and Bowens veteran experience to get him. Especially when you consider the risk to the chemistry of a team which is still among the best in the league.
Anon
February 20, 2009
The Camby trade seems like it would have been one of those trades where Bowen gets immediately bought out by the Clips if he’s traded, since while one could argue that the Spurs need a lock down defender like Bowen, he provides absolutely no utility to the Clips. So they could have gotten him back, and I’d trade the other 2 for camby without a second thought.
Golden Graham
February 20, 2009
“Many of Raptor’s fans also value scoring exclusively. Many were happy to see Moon go because he is not a scorer.”
Toronto fans are morons. Moon improves Toronto’s offense and defense. He makes foolish plays on both ends of the ball, but he’s an overall positive contributor in spite of that.
mrparker
February 21, 2009
Peter,
I am a Wizards fan. I was listening to sporttalk980 and the freaking a-hole was lobbying for the Wizards to take Thabeet over Griffin because “you can’t teach 7’3” and he had 25 and 20 one night. Ummm….Griffin had 40 and 20 a few games ago. 25 and 20 is routine for is somewhat routine for him.
Guys have come out and proven that big numbers in college don’t mean anything but the way Griffin does it suggests he should be one of the all time greats. I think he’s Karl Malone II. Lets hope he is drafted by a smart franchise so we can enjoy his talents. I think the Wizards fit that bill in some ways. This is a team that has put together a string of playoff teams and finds itself in the lottery because of injuries. This could be the wizards lucky break.
Michael
February 21, 2009
I think Griffin looks good, but don’t forget he’s already had trouble with both of his knees. I think its safe to say he wont threaten Karl Malones legacy.
Then again, if he does turn out to have bum knees, he would fit right in with the Wizards!
mrparker
February 22, 2009
Micheal,
I’m encouraged by the fact that he came back better than ever. He played well while coming back from injury last year. I see that as two positive signs.
John
July 14, 2009
You people are idiots and this data is so flawed its ridiculous. Anybody who says Bargnani is worse than Kwame or Candyman should noy be allowed to post. Simple case of propeganda and manipulating numbers to try and prove a point.