Traditionally sports teams visit the White House after winning a championship. This past week, though, we were able to witness a change that Chicago Bulls fans can believe in. The Bulls were invited to the White House by Barack Obama, the team’s most powerful fan.
Clearly such an invite trampled on historical precedence. And in general, historical precedence is not easily ignored (see baseball’s anti-trust exemption). So let’s imaging Congress passes a law restricting the power of President Obama to visit with his favorite team in the White House. If the Bulls can only visit when they win another title, how soon can the Bulls expect another visit?
The Bulls Today
For an answer, let’s look at the Bulls today. The Bulls have won 27 of their first 60 contests in 2008-09; with an efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) of -1.5. This differential mark is an improvement over last year (-3.2) but is still below average. When we look at the individual players, reported in Table One, we can see why this team is below par.
Table One: The Chicago Bulls after 60 games in 2008-09
So far eleven players have logged at least 500 minutes with Chicago in 2008-09. Of these, only three – Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, and Thabo Sefolosha — have posted WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] marks that are above average. And of these three, Sefolosha has left the team and Deng may have suffered a season ending injury. So the Bulls have problems in 2008-09. It’s still possible Chicago will make the playoffs in 2009, but a return trip to the White House as NBA champions is going to have to wait.
The Very Good
So let’s look at next season. Here are the players under contract for next season: Noah, Deng, Brad Miller, Derrick Rose, Kirk Hinrich, Tyrus Thomas, John Salmons, Tim Thomas, and Jerome James.
Based on past performance, three players are likely to be productive in 2009-10. But Brad Miller – with a career WP48 entering this season of 0.197 – plays the same position as Joakim Noah. If the Bulls can move one of these very good players to power forward, then their starting frontcourt looks solid. If not, substantial production is going to be stuck on the bench next season.
The Good
After these two big men, the next most productive player is Deng. As noted, Deng is hurt. And although his production is still above average, he’s not what he once was. Two years ago Deng posted a 0.234 WP48. This season his mark is only 0.116.
When we look at the individual numbers – listed in Table Two – we can see where Deng has slipped.
Table Two: Evaluating Luol Deng
From Table Two we see that Deng’s Net Possession (Rebounds + Steals – Turnovers) are unchanged from 2006-07. His shooting efficiency, though, has fallen quite a bit. And this decline is part of a trend. Last year Deng increased his shot attempts from 2006-07 and his efficiency dropped. This year his shot attempts were reduced and his efficiency fell even further. If Deng is going to return to what he was two years ago, someone is going to need to figure out why his shots are not dropping. If that problem can be solved, the Bulls have a small forward that can produce for years to come. If not, the Bulls can turn to….
Well, the Bulls did just trade for John Salmons. Although Salmons has been above average the first five games he played in Chicago, his career WP48 entering this season was 0.064. And in Sacramento this season he was also below average. So it seems likely that Salmons is not the answer.
The Average
Fans of the Bulls probably don’t think Salmons is the answer. For fans of this team, the future is Derrick Rose. Rose was the number one pick in 2008 NBA draft and it’s expected that he will be a star. After 60 games, though, his numbers are a bit disappointing. Yes he is averaging 16.6 points and 6.3 assists per game. But when we look at the per-48 minute numbers – and compare Rose to an average point guard and t0 what other “star point guards” did their rookie season – Rose often comes up short.
Table Three: Evaluating Derrick Rose
Just looking at Rose and the average point guard, we see a player that’s about average with respect to shooting efficiency, rebounds, turnovers, blocked shots, and free throw shooting. And he’s below average with respect to steals and assists. In sum, at this point Rose does nothing particularly well.
Table Two also notes the rookie numbers of Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo, and Jason Kidd. All four are above average point guards this season. And three of these players were above average their first season in the league.
So at this point, Rose is not a top point guard. He’s not even playing like a top rookie point guard. But just as we saw with Deron Williams, it’s certainly possible that Rose can get much better. And if Chicago hopes to pay a legitimate visit to the White House it seems likely that they need Rose to do more.
Planning Hope
But this team needs more than a productive Rose. Currently Noah is the team’s most productive player. After Noah, there’s quite a drop-off to what Deng is currently offering. And after Deng there’s not much else.
If the Bulls do miss the playoffs in 2009, another lottery pick can be added. But the roster for next season – barring a trade – looks pretty set. Unfortunately, this is not a great collection of talent.
So at this point it looks like the Bulls – like a number of teams – are looking at the 2010 free agent market. Certainly the abundance of talent in that market gives the Bulls some hope. But the abundance of teams in the market tells us that planning on something wonderful happening in 2010 is more about hope than a plan.
Fortunately for Chicago, if the plan is to visit the White House the Bulls don’t need more than hope. Barack Obama appears to be a devoted fan of this team. And since no one is going to tell the First Fan who he gets to invite to the White House, future invites are probably going to happen regardless of what this team does.
For the Bulls, this is good. Because one would need to be quite audacious in their hope to think Chicago is going to secure a legitimate invite to the White House any time in the near future with their current collection of talent.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
JAW
March 2, 2009
DB,
One thing that you haven’t studied, or at least I haven’t seen, is aging patterns among component stats. For example, in baseball, Tango has put this together: http://www.tangotiger.net/agepatterns.txt
I think in projecting Rose going forward, that my intuition says his numbers are incredibly impressive because of where is component stats are so good, regardless of the fact that he’s not as good everywhere else. He scores more efficiently than Chris Paul did in his rookie year, and to me I rarely see rookies do anything like that on the scoring end.
Tom Mandel
March 2, 2009
You can argue that his assist numbers would be higher if his team had a higher FG% — it’d be interesting to compare NO’s FG% in Chris Paul’s first year (tho of course maybe the % would be higher on the Bulls if Rose got guys the ball in the right spots/times).
The glaring deficiencies vs. Paul are in rebounds and steals — as they were in Deron Williams’ case too. This seems to be about learning to play the NBA game instead of relying on elite athleticism. I have hope for Derrick Rose.
Tom Mandel
March 2, 2009
… but not for the Bulls, I forgot to add. :)
StL M
March 2, 2009
The comparison seems a little unfair because all four of the point guards you mentioned were at least 2 years older when they entered the NBA. I certainly have been led to believe that there is some age related correlation in improvements in NBA players.
Anon
March 2, 2009
didn’t CP3 leave college after his sophomore year, making him 1 year older?
Owen
March 2, 2009
JAW – Just a note. Rose’s true shooting percentage this year is 51.1%. Chris Paul’s in his rookie year was 54.6%, which is a substantial difference.
mr. parker
March 2, 2009
IMO, the Bulls have hit the ball out of the park with their last 2 draft picks. Rose could/should be that .3 type player though it will take him till year 3 at least to start showing what his potential might be. Thats normal for a point guard. Noah is firmly entrenched as a .2+ type of player. Right now the Bulls are slated to be the 9th team in the east and get the 13th pick in the draft. That is perfect position to get the steal of next year’s draft(Dejuan Blair). With them getting Noah late in the lottery(he’s played better than everyone in his class so far not named Carl Landry) and getting Aaron Gray at the 50th pick, I believe that the Bulls know what they are doing in the draft when it comes to big guys(these geniuses drafted sonny weems who’ll probably never do anything in the nba).
With a nucleus of Blair, Noah, Rose(I’m convinced that Blair is Kevin Love II) the Bulls could start being that 50 win team.
Tball
March 2, 2009
I am not a fan of the Bulls, but it seemed to me that whenever I saw reports of Chicago, they were not smiling on Noah or Deng. In particular, I thought I heard a lot of trade rumors involving Noah. Things could get worse for the Bulls if they do not recognize who their better players are.
mr. parker
March 2, 2009
T,
My hope for the bulls is that they kinda get stuck with Noah being their starter on an improved team. Then they might be inclined to leave well enough alone.
Mountain
March 2, 2009
There are some reasons to think Noah could do alright at PF (stay at home defense instead of flying everywhere) or really PF on defense, C on offense with Miller the reverse. Did he work well with Horford in Florida or mainly substitute?
d dub
March 2, 2009
It’s funny. Rose’s numbers look like the numbers of Tony Parker if Tony had a 1 1/2 season. That’s pretty good.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/rosede01.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/parketo01.html
I bet the Bulls would take a Parker-ish player right?
roger
March 2, 2009
I’m sorry, but any metric that counts Luol Deng and Noah as the Bulls best players is woefully inadequate. When the Bulls win games, Rose, Thomas and Gordon are usually the reason. Deng is most often nowhere to be found. Noah is solid, but not spectacular.
Peter
March 2, 2009
It’s important to remember that this is an average over an entire season.
A close look at Rose’s statistics reveal that, over the course of the year, he started November strong, hit something of a slump in December and January, and has begun breaking through in February. Personally, I wouldn’t slate him as a bust just yet.
As an aside, all of the point guards to which Dave compared Derrick played at least two seasons of college basketball. Rose has gone from high school in Chicago to Memphis to playing back in Chicago in just three years.
In the past, a lot of players who declared for the draft straight out of high school (Garnett, Kobe etc.) usually took 2-3 seasons before they really started to get a flow of the game and exhibit superstardom. However, a lot of college upperclassmen were usually ahead of the curve as rookies (For example, Shaq played 3 years and Tim Duncan 4)
The jury is out as a whole on the one-and-dones, but they will likely mesh the 2-3 year wait of the high schoolers with the immediate contribution of the older rookies. We have already seen players like Durant and Spencer Hawes make huge leaps, not necessarily productivity-wise, but numerically in their sophomore years.
The jury is out on Greg Oden, as this year is technically his rookie season. However, Rose has certainly played a part in getting Chicago to playoff contention.
Mountain
March 2, 2009
It really isn’t Noah and Deng vs Rose and Gordon, it should be Noah and Deng vs their positional and role peers and Rose and Gordon vs theirs.
PAWS would be more useful than WP48 for this but Noah is better as a part-time big than most part-time bigs. Deng is prehaps just a bit better than average positionally but isn’t much if he is #2 and still isn’t special as #3. Gordon is not special or lacking compared to other #1s on offense. Rose on average may be about PG average.
Again PAWS would illuminate more exactly.
Mo
March 13, 2009
CP3 took an average of 12.1 shots his rookie year. Rose takes an average of 15.
Mo
March 13, 2009
CP3 did indeed do 2 years of college which probably helped him but he was also 20 years old for his entire rookie season.