The Golden State Warriors traded Jason Richardson to the Charlotte Bobcats during the 2007 draft. In return, the Warriors received the rights to power forward – and lottery pick – Brandon Wright. In 2008 the Warriors “earned” their own lottery pick, and selected Anthony Randolph, yet another player who plays power forward.
Given two lottery picks at power forward, it was not surprising to see the Warriors play at this position in 2008-09… Corey Maggette and Stephen Jackson? Randolph and Wright only played a combined 1,817 minutes last season. In their place, Don Nelson – head coach of the Warriors – turned to two players who are generally considered a small forward or a shooting guard.
When we turn to Table One we can see the problem with this choice. Relative to the average power forward, Maggette and Jackson were above average scorers with an ability to get to the free throw line. Once we move past scoring, though, we see quite a bit of red ink. And that means, these two players were generally below average with respect to most aspects of the game. Consequently, as a power forward, Maggette and Jackson posted WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] marks that were not only below average, but actually in the negative range. In contrast, both Randolph and Wright were above average with respect to WP48.
Table One: Comparing Corey Maggette, Stephen Jackson, Anthony Randolph, and Brandon Wright
The Warriors only won 29 games last year, and the problem at power forward was not the only reason for this result. The injury to Monta Ellis and play of Jamal Crawford also hurt this team. Still, one wonders what would happen if Nelson was a bit more traditional. Because if he was, I think the outlook for this team could change.
The current outlook for this team is hardly positive. John Hollinger at ESPN.com sorted the Western Conference teams into five groupings (inside access required). The Warriors are in the fourth grouping, with ten teams ranked higher in the conference. Hollinger’s explanation for this low ranking notes Nelson’s propensity to play a multitude of shooting guards every night.
What if Nelson, though, embraced tradition and decided to play actual power forwards (like Randolph and Wright) at the power forward position? Imagine the following rotation, with WP48 from 2008-09 (at the listed position) reported:
First String (according to ESPN.com)
PG: Monta Ellis [0.165 WP48 in 2007-08]
SG: Stephen Jackson [0.106 WP48]
SF: Corey Maggette [0.071 WP48]
PF: Anthony Randolph [0.166 WP48]
C: Andris Biedrins [0.277 WP48]
Second String (according to ESPN.com)
PG: Stephon Curry [Rookie player, but let’s conservatively guess 0.050 WP48]
SG: Anthony Morrow [0.115 WP48]
SF: Kelenna Azubuike [0.083 WP48]
PF: Brandan Wright [0.141 WP48]
C: Ronny Turiaf [0.053 WP48]
An average player posts a 0.100 WP48. Of the ten players above, six are above average at the listed position. If each starter plays 32 minutes per night, and each reserve plays the remaining 16 (yes, I am guessing), then the Warriors would be expected to win more than 50 games next season. In sum, if Ellis returns to his 2007-08 form, and Nelson learns to respect NBA tradition, this team can improve 20 games in the standings (assuming player’s performance doesn’t change, no injuries, etc…).
And that would mean there is one more contending team in the Western Conference. This list already includes Portland, the LA Lakers, San Antonio, Dallas, Denver, New Orleans, Utah, and maybe Phoenix. If we throw in the Warriors, at least one team that is thinking playoffs in 2010 is going to be disappointed.
Of course, all of this depends upon Nelson’s willingness to keep his big man rotation confined to Randolph, Wright, Biedrins, and Turiaf. Hollinger’s assessment of this team depends on Nelson expanding this rotation and staying true to what he has done in the past. If Nelson follows Hollinger’s expectation, and keeps on looking for little guys to come up big, the Warriors can look forward to another trip to the NBA lottery (and perhaps another power forward Nelson won’t play).
Let me close with a brief comment on something else Hollinger said. In his discussion of the Blazers he noted the following: “Nobody talks about the Blazers as serious contenders in the West, but we should.”
When I read this I wondered… does this mean I am “nobody”?
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Rob O'Malley
August 11, 2009
It’s fascinating how much effect position played effects a players contribution to winning. It is a simple concept and it makes sense. I wonder what players are effected the most by playing out of position. Rashard Lewis comes to mind. It was shocking to see Stephen Jackson come out to average when put at SG. I think a post on this if possible would be very interesting.
Austin
August 12, 2009
It’s not surprising that a more traditional lineup would help the Warriors, but I had no idea how much of a difference it would make. That’s an interesting thread of story to find- thank you Dave.
Also, you’ve been “called out” (in a good way):
http://mvn.com/bucksdiary/2009/08/those-nutball-nba-playoff-conspiracy-theorists-were-right.html
FanFeedr
August 12, 2009
Another thought is that Randolph, given his ball-handling skills, is actually more of a three, in the Lamar Odom mode (less the three-point shooting.) Based on what you have above in terms of WP48, and given Maggette’s “technique”, it might actually prove to be productive with the backcourt you mention, but having Randolph and Wright at the three and four, Biedrins at the five.
While Nelson prefers his front-court to be able to shoot the long-ball in some capacity, this group would do well in transition and in a motion offense that used cuts to the basket.
Thank you for another insightful post.
Chris Cohan
August 12, 2009
Randolph is still mistake/disaster/foul prone but some Warriors fans have said the same thing for years: just play the kids, we’re more than happy to live with (and pay for) their learning mistakes.
Jason E.
August 12, 2009
If Randolph is more of a three in the Lamar Odom mold, this means he’s not a three at all. Almost never played with two other bigs in LA last year.
As a 3, Randolph was horrible. When he put the ball on the floor, his “skills” allowed him to dribble right into traffic where he would routinely either turn the ball over or take and miss an off-balance jumper resulting in sub40% shooting. His passing never seemed to get the job done either. As PF, he is a much above average rebounder, a good shot blocker and was making about half his shots. This notion that he’s a “3” still plagues some other Warriors fans. I hope it does not similarly plague Nellie.
Todd
August 12, 2009
I’m guessing Biedrins would not be at .277 if he had to share the rebounding opportunities, blocked shot opportunities, and inside junk shot opportunities with a traditional Power Forward. Based on the logic in this post, or lack thereof, you could increase win production even more by starting Brandon Wright at SF. If they traded for Pryzbilla, he could be the most productive PG in the league. Nelly plays small because he realizes that it forces opponents to do the same, and his small lineup is more competitive against another small lineup than his big lineup is against another big lineup.
Jason E.
August 12, 2009
The “not sharing opportunities” really doesn’t seem to have a tremendous impact on Biedrins’ total production. When he played alongside Randolph (about 300 total minutes, so not a huge sample) his rebounding dropped a touch, but only a touch. Both were still well above average rebounders when playing together. Neither suffered by having to share.
The notion that his rebounds are somehow padded by being the only big in the game much of the time seems to fall apart when comparing him to his backup, Turiaf. Ronny, despite not having to share rebounds with another big, somehow rebounded more or less exactly as he did in LA when he was often paired with a very good rebounder.
Todd, Dave has been very clear that position matters, that you cannot expect a player to maintain productivity by simply moving him to another position. Some players are capable of doing this, but others are not. He’s rather explicit about this in his writings elsewhere.
John Hollinger
August 12, 2009
Although I agree giving more playing time to Randolph (16.9 PER) and Wright (18.7) at the expense of Maggette (16.9) and Jackson (16.1) would serve the Warriors well, I don’t think this pushes them anywhere near 50-win territory.
Monkfish
August 12, 2009
Stephen Jackson, thing that no metric gets is how good he is at defensively guarding the 3. The last few years (though he’s getting older, and I’m not so sure about last year), I think he’s almost certainly been the best defender of small forwards in the league.
Golden State’s best line up is to start Morrow over Maggette as well to space the floor, as Monta doesn’t shoot threes, and Stephen Jackson does, but shouldn’t. Could easily be a 50 win team if Brendan Wright plays. (Don’t think Nelson likes him which means everyone should be trying to trade a 2nd round pick for him.) I don’t think Brendan Wright will play though. Think Randolph will a lot.
Monkfish
August 12, 2009
The other thing is what if Nelson went the other way and just played his best players, Monta, Jackson, Randolph, Wright and Biedrins. Played a zone defense (with man principles rather than the other way around) with all those long and active arms, and just played high-low offense going to whichever of your three bigs has a post mismatch, as one of them is likely going to be playing against someone smaller than him. Or even pick and roll, using the other teams shooting guard or small forward (who aren’t used to playing pick and roll defense.)
simon
August 12, 2009
John Hollinger//
I hope you put at least some semblance of effort to sound like the real ESPN Hollinger, or write something more entertaining.
stickdog
August 13, 2009
Click on my name to see that Nellie played Randolph and Wright together a total of just 74 minutes over the entire 2008-09 season and that the Warriors outscore the opposition by 21 points during those 74 minutes.
Man of Steele
August 13, 2009
What? The Rockets aren’t even in the discussion among teams hoping to make the Western conference playoffs? I realize losing Yao was huge, but I suppose I thought they might still make the playoffs with Brooks and Lowry at PG (Both above average), McGrady at SG until he gets hurt (above average), Ariza and Battier at SF (both above average), Landry and Hayes at PF (both above average), adn Scola at C (above average). Of course, that analysis depends upon quite a bit of production from Scola playing out of position, which is the point of this article. Perhaps I was wrong about the Rockets… In any event, I am greatly looking forward to the team evaluations later on this offseason.
dberri
August 13, 2009
Man of Steele,
You just guessed my next post. Look for it in the next 24 hours.
Owen Ellickson
December 15, 2009
Seeing this months after the fact… excellent, measured evisceration of the strategy that’s been killing the Warriors for over a year. Smallball was viable for the Warriors when they had an ace playmaker (Baron), a big anchor (Biedrins), and a player who, while mediocre in a vacuum, had the exact combo of three-point legitimacy and passable post D to play the smallball four. Two of the three are gone and the third has been oft-injured, and yet Nellie has plowed on as though nothing has changed, casting Jack and then Monta as Baron, and Maggette and then Jack as Al. It’s been embarrassing and depressing, and it’s nice to see that at least a couple national pundits have noticed.