When we think about favorites for the 2010 NBA title our thoughts often turn to the LA Lakers, Boston Celtics, and the team I think is the favorite, the Cleveland Cavaliers. But there is one other – somewhat forgotten – contender.
Orlando was Good and Now is Better
The Orlando Magic eliminated both the Celtics and Cavaliers in the 2009 playoffs before losing to the Lakers in NBA Finals. When we look at Table One – which reports the Wins Produced and WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] for each player on the Magic last season – we can see that Orlando’s playoffs success was not entirely due to luck.
Table One: The Orlando Magic in 2008-09
The Magic in 2008-09 were led by Dwight Howard. Superman, though, was not a one-man team. The remaining players on this roster were able to produce 36.3 wins last season. Leading this supporting cast was Hedo Turkoglu. In the off-season Turkoglu departed for Portland… no, I mean Toronto. In addition, Courtney Lee was traded to New Jersey. The loss of these two players subtracts nearly ten wins from Orlando.
The Lee transaction, though, brought Vince Carter to Orlando. Carter has already played 11 seasons in the NBA, producing 101.1 wins and posting a 0.165 WP48. Last season Carter produced 10.0 wins with a 0.162 WP48. In sum, he’s more productive than both Lee and Turkoglu. Of course, he’s also old. Carter will turn 33 in January, so he’s not a long-term solution. But for the 2009-10 season, Carter should help.
In addition to Carter, the Magic also added Brandon Bass, Ryan Anderson, Matt Barnes, and Jason Williams. The addition of these players gives the Magic the following depth chart:
Potential First String
PG: Jameer Nelson [6.5 Wins Produced, 0.237 WP48]
SG: Vince Carter [10.0 Wins Produced, 0.162 WP48]
SF: Matt Barnes [4.0 Wins Produced, 0.091 WP48]
PF: Rashard Lewis [5.9 Wins Produced, 0.099 WP48]
C: Dwight Howard [22.2 Wins Produced, 0.378 WP48]
Potential Second String
PG: Anthony Johnson [1.6 Wins Produced, 0.052 WP48]
SG: J.J. Redick [1.3 Wins Produced, 0.054 WP48]
SF: Mickael Pietrus [1.4 Wins Produced, 0.051 WP48]
PF: Brandon Bass [0.8 Wins Produced, 0.025 WP48]
C: Marcin Gortat [4.6 Wins Produced, 0.277 WP48]
In addition to these ten players, the Magic also have the following:
PG: Jason Williams [0.084 WP48; for career]
PF: Ryan Anderson [2.2 Wins Produced, 0.082 WP48]
C: Adonal Foyle [0.095 WP48; for career]
An average NBA player has a 0.100 WP48. Of the players listed on the Magic’s first and second string, only four – Nelson, Carter, Howard, and Gortat – were above average last season. To put this in perspective, the potential first and second string of the Lakers also has four above average players. The Celtics, though, currently have six such players, while the Cavaliers have eight above average performers.
So apparently, the Magic – at least when we consider the population of above average performers – are at a disadvantage in the Eastern Conference. This view, though, changes somewhat if we consider the depth chart at ESPN.com. According to ESPN, Rashard Lewis is now the Magic’s small forward. Once upon a time, Lewis was an above average small forward. In 2006-07 Lewis posted a 0.175 WP48 while mostly playing small forward with the Seattle Supersonics.
If we shift our focus to Win Score, we see that Lewis has been very consistent across his career. During his time with Seattle, Lewis posted a 9.8 Win Score per 48 minutes (WS48). His first season in Orlando – where he primarily played power forward – Lewis posted a 9.6 WS48. And last year his mark was 9.8. Such numbers are quite good for a small forward. But as a power forward, Lewis is about average.
With the acquisition of Bass and Anderson, the Magic are now in a position to move Lewis back to small forward. In their first pre-season game, though, the Magic had Lewis starting at power forward. Now the Magic can still challenge Cleveland, Boston, and the Lakers with Lewis at the four spot. But keeping Lewis at small forward – and playing Bass and Anderson at power forward – would appear to make the Magic better (and a more powerful contender).
To summarize… the addition of Carter improves a team that won 59 games last year. Moving Lewis to small forward makes this improved team even better. And teams that move far past 60 wins in a season are definitely title contenders.
The Contender Population
If we focus strictly on the Eastern Conference, the population of title contenders has now been reviewed. Cleveland, Boston, and Orlando are much better than anyone in the East. One of these teams will likely be in the NBA Finals. Of course, at least one of these teams will also fail to make it to the Eastern Conference Finals.
If we think about the West the picture is not as clear. Unless Bynum comes all the way back, the Lakers – with the Artest for Ariza transactions — have probably moved closer to the pack. Consequently, Portland (who I have reviewed) has a chance. And the same might be said for San Antonio (who I have not reviewed). In fact, one could even see a number of other Western Conference teams making noise in the playoffs.
Regardless of how the West shakes out, though, I think Cleveland, Boston, and Orlando are the three best teams in the league. And that means, I think the eventual NBA champion will come from the East (and I tend to think that team will also come from Ohio).
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Isaac
October 7, 2009
It is also worth nothing that both Ryan Anderson (21) and Brandon Bass (24) are still young players and could very well increase their productivity this year. This would have the added bonus of helping push Rashard Lewis into his more natural position and provide some much needed interior defense at the 4 spot.
Overall, I like Orlando’s chances this year as they have the most dominant center in the game and the ability to stretch the floor from every other position. If they can get improved play out of Bass or Anderson (more likely Anderson) they will be extremely difficult to match up against.
Adam
October 7, 2009
I wonder if there is going to be a big difference to Orlando’s projected wins if we just considered Lewis’ WP as a SF, and Barnes’ WP as a PF? If so, this is a shortcoming of WP that should be worked on.
Man of Steele
October 7, 2009
I don’t get to watch Orlando much, so maybe some of you who do can help me out some. Is it inconceivable that the Magic could play Howard and Gortat together some of the time? I seem to remember Howard playing a bit of PF when he first came into the league. If so, that could be a dynamic lineup (Gortat, Howard, Lewis, Carter, and Nelson), although Orlando would probably still not have a deep enough bench to keep up with Cleveland.
Jacob Rosen
October 7, 2009
I guess this is the first time I have seen it all on paper, but the bench of Redick, Pietrus, Gortat, Bass, and Anderson looks pretty good to me. Following the Courtney Lee (and Rafer Alston) trade, I kind of thought that the Magic were giving up quantity for an older quality player, but this puts that into more perspective.
It should be interesting down the road of your previews to see who else ends up in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. The Cavs, Celtics and Magic are all a given. Outside of that however, it is probably easiest to only figure out the worst teams. The Knicks, Nets, and Bucks are probably the three worst teams without a doubt. After that, here is my breakdown of the other nine teams who all could theoretically compete for the playoffs:
Outside of that, you have a pretty murky position with nine slightly mediocre teams. The Raptors and Wizards should be radically improved after abysmal seasons. Indiana, Charlotte, and Detroit all should win at least 35+ games by default after doing so and getting only better. Miami, Philadelphia, Chicago and Atlanta are also still around and all made the playoffs as young teams in 2009.
todd2
October 8, 2009
I’m with Steele, if Gortat develops any kind of face-up game and Orlando can play him with Howard, the Magic could be devastating. I’d like to add that I think the Magic played a bit over the heads in the post-season last year. They came from a weak division and were positively smoking from beyond the arc. Difficult to maintain that level of shooting.
P-Dawg
October 8, 2009
Very interesting point about Lewis’s potential change of position. Makes me wonder about Glen Big Baby Davis and the Celtics. If Davis were a small forward instead of a big forward, would he have a higher win score?
Jeff
October 8, 2009
I’m pretty sure Big Baby would still be a big vortex of negative production. Guys that big should be able to crash the boards and play better defense than he does.
Tball
October 8, 2009
If Howard were a shooting guard, he’d have a much higher win score. If he could take the floor with Duncan, Shaq, Bynum, and Bogut, you’d have quite a group … one that would really fall short of win score expectations.
You can’t move Big Baby to SF. He barely has the lateral quickness to stay with PFs. And he does not defend the perimeter. Lewis works at SF because he has the quickness and range to play the position. Gortat could work at PF depending on the opposition (might be easier to stay with Big Baby or Varejo than LBJ, when he’s at the 4, or ‘Sheed or KG who frequent shoot from the perimeter).
Ty from Bucks Diary
October 8, 2009
Professor Berri,
I looked at this Winston fellow’s website. Not impressed. First of all, he’s wearing a jersey… strike one. Second, could he have come up with a lamer name for his book? it conjures thoughts of non-athletic things like “Math Olympics” and extracurricular activities of that sort.
But my real protest is with his blog. Did you notice he uses a little linguistic trick to sort of backhand the Win Score method?
I’m not quoting him verbatim here, but if I remember correctly he writes in one of his posts something to the effect that “David Berri has found a way to correlate “box score” information to wins”, whereas this adjusted +/- he and his partner have come up with, he implies, is based upon actual game action, or game segments, or whatever he calls it. The implication being, or the inference I made, was that Win Score was a theoretical metric while adjusted +/- was based upon events that actually occurred in basketball games. What bullshit. As though the information contained in a box score is something other than what it is — a numerical, unbiased, description of the game itself.
Anyway, I look forward to your upcoming book. I’m pushing it hard on my little blog.
Jesus Christ, though… I thought Tarantino took his time following up Pulp Fiction!! I asked for your book at Barnes two months ago and they were baffled!!
Kidding, kidding (not about the Barnes and Noble part)…
Isaac
October 8, 2009
todd2: “I’d like to add that I think the Magic played a bit over the heads in the post-season last year. They came from a weak division and were positively smoking from beyond the arc. Difficult to maintain that level of shooting.”
If anything the Magic under performed in terms of 3pt% in the playoffs. The Magic shot 36% from beyond the arc over 24 playoff games while averaging 38.1% over the course of the season. Their average dropped to 33% in the finals. The reason you think they over performed is likely the conference finals against the Cavs where they shot 40.8% from 3 point range. This seems high until you consider the number of open looks they were able to obtain (many due to Dwight Howard forcing the Cav defense to collapse into double teams). During the regular season the Magic averaged 39.5% 3pt% against Cleveland.
While I cede your point about the high variability of 3 point shooting, Orlando’s playoff 3pt shooting was under performance not over performance.
todd2
October 8, 2009
I had the Cavs series in mind…
Caleb
October 8, 2009
“Such numbers are quite good for a small forward. But as a power forward, Lewis is about average. ”
I don’t understand this huge emphasis on positions. It seems like players are being punished for not fitting into a particular mold.
I just don’t believe that when Van Gundy plays Lewis at the 4, that all the sudden he’s a less productive player. It’s true, he’s not going to rebound like a traditional PF, but we don’t know that this actually hurts the Magic. At a certain point the designation between SF and PF becomes somewhat arbitrary.
I don’t think the conclusion should be that Lewis doesn’t help his team win at Power Forward. What seems more likely to me is that Wins Produced has trouble with unconventional lineups.
Also – Isaac. You are absolutely right. I’m pretty sick of hearing people say that the Magic just “got hot.” They were an exceptional three-point shooting team throughout the season and were able to generate a high number of open looks against Cleveland. That’s not exactly getting lucky or playing “over their heads”…. a great shooting team should be expected to hit 40% when they are getting good looks.
Italian Stallion
October 8, 2009
I agree with Caleb on everything.
I think we have to be careful to differentiate between WINS PRODUCED and the ability of the player. We also have to look at the makeup of the rest of the team.
If a player is a great SF, but is slotted into the PF position because he’s also the best option at that position at times, that should not held against him as a player if it reduces his Wins Produced. If anything, it makes him versatile and more valuable than other SFs that would be dreadful if asked to do the same thing.
Similarly, if his poorer rating is the result of fewer rebounds, less efficient scoring, and fewer blocks than the traditional PF, that could be because he’s still playing like a SF (more time on the perimeter etc..) and the team wants it that way. Perhaps they have a dominant center or very good rebounders in other positions. So they want him outside drawing defenders away from the basket etc…
It’s very hard to slot players positionally in the modern game because some big men are so skilled.
Carlos
October 8, 2009
Your totally right. Replacing Ariza for Artest and having a healthy Bynum definitely means the Champs are coming back to the pack.
I know the Lakers beat the Magic in 5 last year, but who is going to guard Vince Carter! How are the lakers going to handle VC in the clutch!
Also I know the Lakers beat the Cavs twice last year, but who is going to guard Shaq? Do the Lakers even have a big man?
Plus the Lakers are another year older! How are they going to match up with the youth of the celtics now that they signed Rasheed Walace!
Again great article. Right on the money. Lakers are definitely coming back to the pack. I am surprised you even mentioned them in this article about the best teams in the league they are going to be so avg.
Koontz
October 8, 2009
Carlos, I was going to bash the hell out of you, but I re-read your post and realized it was gushing with sarcasm. NICE!
Tom Mandel
October 10, 2009
Wins Produced is not a measure of how good a player is, but of how much his play contributes to his team winning games.
If you moved Jason Kidd to Center, he’d be the same basketball player, but his team wouldn’t win a lot of games.
Tom Mandel
October 10, 2009
I note that Keith Bogans is .104 here and .154 in the next post (about the Spurs).
dberri
October 10, 2009
Tom,
The 0.104 mark is what Bogans did with Orlando. The 0.154 mark is what he did across the entire season.
Peter
October 10, 2009
Above average performers need to be weighed as well as counted. For example, the Celtics have more above-average performers than either the Magic or Lakers, but those teams have Dwight Howard and Kobe Bryant, while the Celtics have neither.
And, explicitly or not, the Cavaliers traded for one above-average performer, Shaquille O’Neal, in order to slow down another, Howard.