Mark Cuban – owner of the Dallas Mavericks – claims that the 2009-10 Mavericks are better than the 2005-06 team that managed to reach the NBA Finals. Are they really this good? And are they better than the 2006-07 team that
a. lead the NBA in victories, and
b. fail to exit the first round of the playoffs.
The 2006-07 Mavericks — which was a bit better than the 2005-06 team in the regular season — scored 1.081 points per possession while surrendering 1.003. The team’s efficiency differential – offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency – was 7.8, a mark that actually ranked second in the NBA (the Spurs – the team that won the 2007 NBA title – posted a mark of 9.1). If the Mavericks had managed to repeat what happened in 2006-07 (i.e. post a 7.8 differential) last season, Dallas would have only ranked 4th in the NBA (behind Cleveland, Boston, and the Lakers).
Of course, the Mavericks weren’t close to the top teams in the league in 2008-09. The team’s differential of 2.1 ranked 10th in the league, and only an injury to Manu Ginobili allowed this team to advance to the second round (hence besting the playoff performance of the 2007 Mavericks).
When we turn to how the players on the Mavericks performed last year, we can see why this team struggled.
Table One: The Dallas Mavericks in 2008-09
The Mavericks were led in Wins Produced and WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] by Jason Kidd. After Kidd, though, the team only produced 26.4 wins. Consequently, the Mavericks suffered through the worst season in the Mark Cuban era.
How to Rebuild Dallas
If we examine the depth chart at ESPN.com, we see that Dallas added Shawn Marion and Drew Gooden. Dallas also tried to add Marcin Gortat (and failed). When we consider the 1-year and 2-year adjusted plus-minus numbers (from BasketbalValue.com) – the metric that was made famous by Mark Cuban and Wayne Winston – we see the following:
Shawn Marion: -1.85 (1-year), 1.58 (2-year)
Drew Gooden: -7.28 (1-year), -2.35 (2-year)
Marcin Gortat: -8.06 (1-year), -2.46 (2-year)
With the exception of Shawn Marion’s 2-year adjusted plus-minus, these players are all in the negative range with respect to adjusted plus-minus.
Now let’s look at the same players via Wins Produced:
Shawn Marion: 0.210 WP48 last season, 0.291 WP48 career
Drew Gooden: 0.095 WP48 last season, 0.132 WP48 career
Marcin Gortat: 0.277 WP48 last season (only played 41 minutes before 2008-09)
The career numbers of these three players – with respect to WP48 – are all above average. Gooden is only slightly above average, but he has moved within season three times. If we focus on the four seasons where he didn’t move (2003-04 to 2006-07) we see a player who produced 32.0 wins and posted a 0.169 WP48. In sum, as I noted last July, when it came time to re-build the Mavericks, Dallas apparently abandoned adjusted plus-minus and turned to something that looks very similar to Wins Produced.
Are the Mavericks Better?
That being said, let’s return to the contention that this team is better than it was in 2006-07. Here is what the team’s depth chart looks like in terms of Wins Produced.
Potential First String
PG: Jason Kidd [19.8 Wins Produced, 0.329 WP48]
SG: Josh Howard [2.0 Wins Produced, 0.057 WP48]
SF: Shawn Marion [10.8 Wins Produced, 0.210 WP48]
PF: Dirk Nowitzki [10.6 Wins Produced, 0.167 WP48]
C: Erick Dampier [7.4 Wins Produced, 0.193 WP48]
Potential Second String
PG: Jose Barea [2.0 Wins Produced, 0.059 WP48]
SG: Jason Terry [5.8 Wins Produced, 0.111 WP48]
SF: Shawne Williams [-0.5 Wins Produced, -0.013 WP48 for career]
PF: Drew Gooden [2.5 Wins Produced, 0.095 WP48]
C: Nathah Jawai [career 19 minutes played]
Last season these players produced 60.7 wins. As Table Two reveals – a table originally posted in October of 2007 — the Mavericks of 2006-07 combined to offer 60.2 Wins Produced (again, the 2006 team was a bit worse). So if the current Mavericks repeat what they did last year, this team will be as good as it was in 2006-07.
Table Two: The Dallas Mavericks in 2005-06 and 2006-07
There is reason to think, though, that the Mavericks could be better. Marion, Nowitzki, Howard, and Gooden all produced at levels below their respective career averages last season. So if these players return to form, the Mavericks could indeed be better. At least, that’s the story told by Wins Produced.
There are two issues to consider, though, as Dallas fans dream about a long run in the playoffs.
1. Jason Kidd is really old. Yes, he is amazing. But Kidd will be 37 before the playoffs begin. And for a basketball player, that’s an age where most players have already retired. Certainly, we should not be surprised if Kidd slips this season (then again, I would have guessed he would have slipped last season).
2. Although I think the Mavericks are as good as the Lakers, Spurs, and Blazers; I still think this team – like the other teams in the West – are not quite as good as the Celtics, Magic, and Cavaliers.
Of course, in a short series – as fans of Dallas know – anything can happen. So if Dallas does manage to get out of the West, it’s possible the Mavericks could finally win an NBA title. Yes the word is “possible”. Dallas winning it all would not be my first guess (at least, not according to Wins Produced).
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
romalley
October 11, 2009
I wonder what we could expect if everyone on the team played up to their career average, bringing them up or down. Like Jason Kidd, he’d probably dip a little. Dirk would see a rise I’d imagine.
mark cuban
October 12, 2009
thx for the always interesting and informative analysis. Just for the record, we never use a single year adj pm as a gauge.
its more a lineup evaluation tool than player eval tool. However, where it does prove valuable is over the course of 5 plus years. If a player has been plus the previous 5 yrs, there is every indication he will be so the following yr.
plus, we look at coach and system. what lineups and system did the player excel in and do we play that way.
And you didnt add Tim Thomas or Kris Humprhies. We think both have the chance to do well in our system.
BP
October 12, 2009
I think Cuban makes a great point there. I find adjusted plus/minus terribly unenlightening when applied to individual players. For coaches, however, I can see it being a very useful tool for identifying which possible line-up is the most effective. Especially in cases where that line-up might not be obvious or intuitive (such as Dallas being better when they go small).
Rob O'Malley
October 12, 2009
If they had gotten Gortat that would have made them Western favorites probably, maybe championship favorites.
Rob O'Malley
October 12, 2009
Also in my opinion Yahoo Spots depth charts are more accurate than ESPN. I would suggest using them in the future. I doubt Shawne Williams or Nathan Jawai will get significant playing time this year.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/teams/dal/depthchart
brgulker
October 12, 2009
So is that really Mark Cuban above? If so, that’s pretty sweet. I know he’s in Twitter and FB and communicates quite a bit with his fans …
I guess only Dr. Berri will know (since he can see the e-mail and some info about the IP address of the poster).
I’ve been looking forward to this analysis for some time. Adding Shawn Marion could prove to be brilliant, because Kidd is the quintessential distributor (well, maybe Paul is better;) ). I can’t wait to watch Kidd, Terry, Marion, and Dirk running the break. It will be incredibly exciting to watch (and should also be a winning combination).
brgulker
October 12, 2009
If they had gotten Gortat that would have made them Western favorites probably, maybe championship favorites.
I don’t think Gortat’s played enough to know for sure about him.
As a Pistons’ fan, I still wanted us to go after him, but I think paying more than MLE for the guy is a pretty big risk at this point. I mean, can excellent production in only 12 minutes per game justify a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract?
It’s easy to speculate, but if you’re the GM who gives Gortat that deal, and he turns out to be the next Amir Johnson? I don’t want to be that guy.
TMavFan
October 12, 2009
In order for the depth chart to be more accurate, I think the second string should be changed to:
Gooden @ Center
Humphries @ PF
Ross @ SF
As was noted above, Williams and Jawai are not likely to see the light of day.
Sam
October 12, 2009
Kris Humphries has played really well in pre-season and if I’m not mistaken he’s historically been an average or above average player. I think because of his contributions they could be better than in 06-07
TMavFan
October 12, 2009
One other note…
Dirk, Terry and Howard were all much less productive than they were the two previous years. It will be interesting to see whether this was age related or the Mav’s lack of alternative threats that put more defensive pressure on the three of them.
06/07 07/08 08/09
Dirk .292 .231 .167
Terry .169 .130 .111
JHo .181 .141 .057
Rob O'Malley
October 12, 2009
brgulker,
I agree that is a lot of money Orlando shelled out to Gortat. Especially since he plays the same position as Dwight. Im not so sure how much Mr Cuban cares about spending too much money though, as long as they win. Even if Gortat play just 12 minutes for the Mavs and his WP48 dropped to something like .150 he’d still offer like 3 wins. Humphries, Ross, and others not included in the analysis probably add at least 1 or more wins. Leaving them at about 64-65 wins. I think they should definitely be solid this year.
brgulker
October 12, 2009
@ Rob O’Malley:
Obviously Cuban doesn’t mind spending the dough :) And more than likely, Gortat will end up being productive in a larger role. But I can understand why no one was willing to throw more money at him than Cuban was willing to do. But I also understand why Orlando matched the offer sheet. If nothing else, Gortat has relatively high trade value, and it’s not good business to let a good young asset just walk out the door.
Italian Stallion
October 12, 2009
I’ve always been a Dallas fan and think Dirk is one of the most skilled big men ever, but IMO this team can’t win a championship with Dirk carrying a huge load down the stretch. He needs a lot of help and doesn’t have it.
The regular season is largely about has the most talented and deep team. Dallas is certainly among them. As usual, they will pile up wins against soft teams and end up with a good record.
The playoffs are a different animal.
1. Team rotations shrink.
2. The contests get more physical.
3. The game slows down a bit.
4. Playoff experience counts
5. Many games are decided under extreme pressure in the last few minutes.
It may seem like a cliche, but I don’t think Dallas has the mental toughness, killer instinct, or “closer” mentality required to beat any of the other elite teams in a really tough series. They might blow out an over matched team, but they aren’t going to win a tough 6 or 7 game series where several of the games were decided in the last minute.
simon
October 12, 2009
IS//
Between 2000 to 2009,Dallas lost three times to worse regular season teams and won three times over better regular season teams including two series wins over the Spurs with one of them being a cheapie over the Manu-less Spurs.
They had five 5 game serieses and lost four of them, but they also had 5 seven game serieses and won all of them.
Looking at the numbers, it’s hard to find the evidence for the Mavs being particularly worse or better in the playoffs than the regular season, or not being able to win a close series. It looks more of a case where they are in a very tough conference and had a one memorable loss, the Warriors series.
simon
October 12, 2009
I should’ve fixed the “series”-es. Too bad there’s no edit function.
dberri
October 12, 2009
For those who are interested…
Kris Humphries has posted a 0.118 WP48 in each of the past two seasons. Limited minutes, but he might be helpful. Tim Thomas, though, has a career WP48 below zero. And Quentin Ross looks to be every bit as productive as Williams. So even if ESPN.com’s depth chart is wrong (and it probably is), I think the analysis is still correct. Dallas should be in the list of teams that can legitimately challenge the Lakers.
Andrea Bargnani's Mom
October 13, 2009
Please do an analysis of the Raptors soon. Most Raptors fans believe getting rid of Moon and Parker was a great thing. They also believe Bargnani had an amazing second half to the season and that he will continue to “break out” this year. They expect Turkoglu, a revitalized Bosh, and Bargnani to dominate. Interested in hearing what you have to say. I’m guessing the team could win 40 games if Calderon and Bosh play the full season and play to their potential. Reggie Evans was productive in the past according to your metric – if he returns to that, it will be signifigant. Just how good is this team now that Marion, Moon, Parker, and JO are gone?
brgulker
October 13, 2009
I don’t see how the Raptors are anything better than mediocre … and I suspect that’s what Dr. Berri will find.
Fortunately, mediocre can still get you into the Playoffs in the East, although there is a big clump of mediocre teams who will be fighting for spots 4-8 this season.
todd2
October 13, 2009
This team has no speed. Defense will be an issue. They’ll struggle against younger/quicker backcourts and easy baskets will be difficult to come by—not much of a transition game. Which leads me to wonder, is there a sweet spot for contenders regarding age and experience?
Italian Stallion
October 13, 2009
Simon,
I don’t have time to review every Dallas series to see who was favored, who had injuries, and more importantly “how games ended” etc…. I’ve seen many of their games in each of their series over the last few years.
My perception is that they have often lost series they should/could have won due to having a tough time closing out close games (especially against a similar rival).
I guess I am making a very subtle distinction between getting beat and losing. There is nothing you can do if the other team beats you, but you can sort of tell when a team “loses” instead. IMO, in many of the years Dallas was one of the favorites to win it all, they “lost” a series.
At crunch time almost the entire offensive load often falls on Dirk. He’s a great player, but I don’t think his personality or his game are particularly suited to carrying that much weight at crunch time of a big playoff game (even though he has had some amazing performances).
As much as Dallas has improved, I think they can’t win unless they get or develop another “go to” guy down the stretch.
That’s the way I’ll be betting my own money if they have a great season and are considered one of the playoff favorites.
L. Ship
October 13, 2009
I would be interested to know Dr. Berri’s take on the-in my opinion-nonsensical notion of the East being “mediocre” and the West being a powerhouse…At the end of the day (or season) how can having six teams that didn’t win 30 games make a Conference better?