One of the very first columns posted in this forum was “The Tragedy of Kevin Garnett.” For years KG was the most productive player in the NBA. And for years, the Minnesota Timberwolves surrounded KG with relatively poor players. Consequently, Garnett could never experience the playoff success enjoyed by players like Kobe Bryant; a fact that led some to conclude Kobe is actually more productive than Garnett (yes, I know, kind of silly).
Now a similar story is taking place in New Orleans. For each of the past two seasons Chris Paul has led the NBA in Wins Produced. In 2007-08, Paul produced 25.4 wins while his teammates produced 29.7. Such a combination was sufficient to win 55 games, although had Paul been merely average (average WP48 is 0.100), then the Hornets would have only won 36 games (and missed the playoffs).
Last season – as Table One reveals – Paul was even better. His 28.2 Wins Produced led the league. And as I noted a few weeks ago, when you consider standard deviations above average, Paul’s 2008-09 performance was the best the NBA has seen since the days of Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson.
Table One: New Orleans Hornets in 2008-09
Unfortunately, Paul’s teammates were very bad. Everyone not named CP3 only produced 16.7 wins for the Hornets in 2008-09. So if one replaced Paul with an average player, the Hornets ranked among the very worst teams in the league.
This past summer changes were made to the Hornets roster. The big move was trading Tyson Chandler for Emeka Okafor. Here is what I said when this trade was announced:
…Chandler has been traded to the Bobcats for Emeka Okafor.
John Hollinger made the following comment on this trade (Insider access required): …Okafor is the better player. Both players consistently have been honorable mentions in my all-defense picks, but Okafor is the superior scorer. That might not be saying much — both players are somewhat limited offensively — but Okafor can score on post-ups occasionally and make short bank shots, while Chandler’s range ends at the charge circle. Over the past three seasons, Okafor has averaged nearly five more points per 40 minutes — that’s big.
If we look at the past three seasons, Chandler has a 0.230 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] while Okafor has a 0.222 WP48. If we focus on just the 2006-07 and 2007-08 seasons, though, Chandler trumps Okafor 0.271 to 0.235. Again, Chandler – primarily because of injury – had a poor season last year. If Chandler is now healthy it’s more than possible that the Bobcats come out ahead on this deal. At least, that appears to be true if we look past scoring.
Let me also note that if we focus solely on 2008-09, Okafor did offer more. In other words, it’s likely that Okafor in 2009-10 will do more than Chandler did last season. The Hornets, though, didn’t stop with this move. They also added Darius Songaila [-0.8 Wins Produced, -0.024 WP48] and Bobby Brown [-2.6 Wins Produced, -0.136 WP48]. Both Songaila and B. Brown were among the least productive players in 2008-09. So these moves are probably not going to help. The addition of these players gives the Hornets the following depth chart:
Potential First String
PG: Chris Paul [28.2 Wins Produced, 0.451 WP48]
SG: James Posey [5.0 Wins Produced, 0.111 WP48]
SF: Julian Wright [0.9 Wins Produced, 0.054 WP48]
PF: David West [6.5 Wins Produced, 0.105 WP48]
C: Emeka Okafor [11.0 Wins Produced, 0.196 WP48]
Potential Second String
PG: Darren Collison [rookie] or Bobby Brown [-2.6 Wins Produced, -0.136 WP48]
SG: Devin Brown [-0.3 Wins Produced, -0.015 WP48]
SF: Peja Stojakovic [1.9 Wins Produced, 0.044 WP48]
PF: Darius Songaila [-0.8 Wins Produced, -0.024 WP48]
C: Hilton Armstrong [-2.6 Wins Produced, -0.115 WP48]
Chris Paul note the following about this team:“This might be the deepest team we’ve had since I’ve been here.”
When we consider Wins Produced, though, we see a different story. The Hornets currently have one amazing player in Paul, one very good player in Okafor, two players who are close to average (Posey and West), and then a collection of players that are well below average. In sum, I think this team is better than what we saw last season. But I don’t think this team is as good as it was in 2007-08. Yes, it is possible Julian Wright can play better (or just play the entire season). And Posey, Stojakovic, and D. Brown have played better before 2008-09. Still, when we compare the Hornets to the other top teams in the West (i.e. Lakers, Blazers, Spurs, Mavericks, Jazz, and Nuggets), I think New Orleans – despite having the very best player in the league – come up short.
One wonders how long this will continue. Paul is only 24 years old and signed through the 2011-12 season. So New Orleans does have some time to truly build “a deep team” around Paul. It’s possible, though, that we are seeing a replay of the KG story. After 12 seasons of struggling in Minnesota, Garnett was finally traded to Boston where he won his first title. For KG, this happened when he was 31 years old. Will Paul have to wait this long?
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
FanFeedr
October 13, 2009
You have posted on this subject several times, and there is an ongoing debate on Henry Abbott’s True Hoop blog about the value that Kevin Durant does or doesn’t bring to the Thunder.
When one looks at this, and considers that situation, it seems baffling that NBA owners let their GMs engage in trades and drafting based on emotional or visual appraisals rather than balancing them with statistical information. Paul is a fantastic player. To your point, the Okafor acquisition may be a wash.
But the Bobby Brown and Songaila acquisitions beg the question: why?
Scott
October 13, 2009
I’m pretty sure the Bobby Brown and Songaila acquisitions had to do with $$$, not anything basketball related.
Clark
October 13, 2009
The Okafor trade was not made to better the team. It was financial on both sides. Chandler has less years on his contract and the Bobcats are for sale so that made it cheaper, and Okafor is paid less this season than Chandler so NO gets double the savings b/c they are over the cap. Wins were not considered in this trade IMO
LSUhornet17
October 13, 2009
B. Brown and Songaila may be below average, but how do they compare to the players whose minutes they may or may not replace? I have a hard time believing they are worse players than Antonio Daniels, Melvin Ely, Sean Marks, and Hilton Armstrong (the last two are still there but should see less minutes). You also don’t mention Ike Diogu at all, and he may have much more of an impact than Songaila. I know the Hornets may not be contenders, but look at the full picture before you preach doom and gloom. 49 wins without a healthy Chandler and Peja is nothing insignificant. The bench is easily better this year, and that combined with any luck in the health department should equal a better outcome this year.
todd2
October 13, 2009
This franchise has me scratching my head. Put some young guys around CP3 that can defend and run and watch the fireworks! They don’t need “scorers,” the man is a table setter. A big part of Showtime’s success back in the day was having guys that could defend and fill lanes on the break…
NO doesn’t seem to have a plan.
commut3r
October 13, 2009
Agree with LSU above, Diogu could have quite a significant role on this team as a 6th man scorer, unlike how he’s been used in past teams where he’s been asked only to defend and pull down rebounds.
Unfortunately he’s got a slight injury at the moment, so we haven’t seen him in the preseason games.
Sam
October 13, 2009
They are stuck in mediocrity until they can unload the Peja contract.
As for Paul, he will at least be recognized as the best PG in the league. KG was constantly dissed in comparison to Tim Duncan, while Paul has no best player on a championship team at his position to be compared to.
Ricky Rubio
October 13, 2009
They just need to wait out Peja’s contract. They’ll have plenty of $$ and options at that point. If it’s used widely, they’ll have a legit contender. If it’s not, hopefully CP can grab a KG like ring late in his career somewhere else.
Caleb
October 13, 2009
@Clark.
I disagree, it was a deal made to do two things – bring financial relief AND get better (or atleast, not get worse). The “better” can be argued, but even if you think Okafor is a downgrade (I think its a push, personally) – at the least the deal didn’t signifigantly hurt the team.
As for the article itself, LSUHornet makes some good points. I’m not sure why Berri neglected to mention Diogu – he could be a key bench piece. It remains to be seen how good rookies Thorton and Collison will be, but they both have potential. Collison seems ready to become the best backup PG Paul has ever had, and that’s very signifigant.
Julian Wright was dissapointing last season… but had a much better rookie campaign and anyone who has watched him has seen the potential he has. Not to mention, he is an excellent man-to-man defender, which is something that Wins Produced can’t measure.
Lastly, Peja, if he’s healthy – could conceivably have a bounce back season. He shot the lights out in 07-08. And of course even if he doesn’t, like Ricky says above – he will become a valuable expiring contract.
I think the future is brighter than this article makes it seem.
BG
October 14, 2009
I have a statistical question about the Jazz and could not find a better way to ask it.
The 2008 box scores for Okur and Millsap are fairly similar. I also hand computed their win scores for the year and they are nearly identical.
Why does Millsap have a much higher WP48 and wins produced than Okur? What is it in box score behavior that brings Okur’s WP48 and wins produced down?
Center has always been a weak spot for the Jazz as far as WP48 and wins produced. Okur creates room for the PF and that inflates their metrics but what drops the Center numbers?
mook
October 14, 2009
One major difference between Paul and Garnett was the Joe Smith debacle. That robbed Minnesota out of several years of draft picks–a massive set back. The Hornets have no such burden.
They are probably more similar to the final few years of Garnett’s stay in Minnesota, though. Just enough talent to not get a good draft pick, too little talent to ever hope for more than a first round loss.
Italian Stallion
October 14, 2009
“They are probably more similar to the final few years of Garnett’s stay in Minnesota, though. Just enough talent to not get a good draft pick, too little talent to ever hope for more than a first round loss.”
That’s probably the worst position you can be in – unless of course you are the Knicks and gave an unprotected 2010 lottery pick to Utah for Vaseline Man.
I think in the future we are going to see more and more great players that don’t win a championship. As the league expands, it lowers the probability of winning. That trend is likely to continue as the NBA eventually expands into Europe and Asia. I think the days of Bill Russel and even Michael Jordan stringing championships are almost gone.
Tball
October 14, 2009
db,
Not sure when you’ll be reviewing the Thunder, but TrueHoop had an interesting piece on a plus/minus controversy suggesting Durant has been hurting his team for the past two seasons, including Durant’s tweet weighing in.
In regards to last season, I think you were more of a Durant proponent than plus/minus.
simon
October 14, 2009
Tball/
Have you talked to your good pal journalist David Friedman recently? Just curious ;)
simon
October 14, 2009
Holy crap, I spoke too soon. The thread is still alive!!
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/12/16/really-the-answer-is-iverson/
I can’t help applauding the persistence of you two.
Tball
October 15, 2009
Simon,
He was silent for too long. Allowed me to reclaim my sanity.
He was convinced a ten game window in the Pistons season was the true measure of the team, because it agreed with his preseason assessment, and the other 72 games were the result of poor coaching and injuries. The real killer was Denver, where we had the same post-trade prediction (although with different assessments of the impact of Iverson/Billups and Camby/healthy Nene) for their regular season record, but somehow every Denver loss proved him right and every win was a fluke.
Doesn’t matter how long I’ve been married, I still don’t react well to irrationality. At some point though, we need to put a fork in it and get back to work.
I’m slightly embarrassed. I thought it was just the ‘journalist’ and I that were reading the tripe we were writing.
brgulker
October 15, 2009
Why does Millsap have a much higher WP48 and wins produced than Okur? What is it in box score behavior that brings Okur’s WP48 and wins produced down?
I’m suspecting that it has to do with positions played. Milsap plays PF, and Okur plays C.
Cousin Bill
October 16, 2009
Based on his college record, can’t we project Marcus Thornton as a credible, appreciable upgrade over Devin Brown?
anita
October 16, 2009
I do not think the Hornets are playing hard right now. If any of you pre season doesn’t really matter. It is like a scrimage to see what people have. They will be fine you wait and see. Chris paul has had a few bag games this pre season himself. He does not make up the team, the coach and all 10 to 15 players make up the team.
Baron Von Munchasen
October 17, 2009
Now that some Las Vegas oddsmakers have put up their odds for total wins for the regular season, we should put the prognosticating abilities of Wins produced to the test. This is would be very good test to see if Wins Produced would be able to predict totals wins better than Vegas (assuming the bookies in Vegas aren’t already using Wins Produced!) – as opposed to a closed contest between a few statisticians (remember, a blogger actually did the best in the TrueHoop smackdown out of those who were documented – granted, it was a Laker blogger).
Tball
October 22, 2009
Baron,
Search the archives for the end of October/early Nov. last year. db did this, including about a dozen other prognosticators in his table, including some stat guys, Bill Simmons, and, if I recall correctly, two different Vegas lines.
The toughest part of db’s system is that his statistic is based on minutes played (wins per 48 minutes), but he doesn’t invest much effort in predicting minutes played. He assumes full health for everyone, which caused his Clipper prediction to sink like a stone, and/or a player’s minutes to resemble their previous season, which can be impractical (see Boozer last season).
Each team needs to play 19296 minutes(5 positions x 48min/gm x 82 gms). I have not seen any indication that db attempts to allocate these minutes within each team. Without that effort (or some approximation of it – say looking at the 8-10 man rotation), I am not sure a fair effort is made to make full use of the tool.
At some point, if someone really wants to test the mettle of this system, an effort has to be made to accurately predict players’ minutes and plug that into the WP48.
Lior
November 12, 2009
Byron Scott has just been fired. The question is whether the lack of performance (e.g. the efficiency differential) should be attributed to the coach failing to get the maximum out of the players, or simply due to the choice of players.