Who was the worst team in 2008-09? If we think about wins and losses, the obvious answer is the Sacramento Kings. Last season the Kings only won 17 games. Sacramento’s efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency), though, was actually better than the LA Clippers. The Clippers posted a -9.2 differential last season (the 27th worst mark since 1973-74) while the Kings differential was -8.9 (the 30th worst mark since 1973-74).
In the draft, though, the Clippers added Blake Griffin. So the Clippers will probably not be the worst team in 2009-10. The Kings, though, seem destined to be crowned the NBA’s worst team this next season.
To see this point, let’s first review what the Kings did last year. From Table One we see that the Kings employed 11 players who played at least 500 minutes last year.
Table One: The Sacramento Kings in 2008-09
Of these 11, only two – Kevin Martin and Brad Miller – managed to exceed the mark of an average player (an average player post a 0.100 Wins Produced per 48 minutes). And neither player managed to surpass the 0.115 mark (and Miller was elsewhere before the season ended). In sum, the Kings failed to employ anyone who was truly outstanding last year, and furthermore, managed to employ many, many below average players. Consequently, no one should be surprised Sacramento struggled.
As noted, the Clippers were able to add Griffin with in the draft. Meanwhile the Kings –with the 4th pick – selected Tyreke Evans. Relative to players who are drafted out of college, Evans was a below average college performer last season. So although it’s possible Evans will be an outstanding performer in 2009-10, the data that exists suggests otherwise.
After Evans the Kings added Desmond Mason [-0.014 W48], Sean May [-0.093 WP48], and Sergio Rodriguez [0.087 WP48]. If all we consider is last year’s performance, Rodriguez – despite being a below average performer – is currently the second most productive player on the Kings. And according to both Yahoo.com and ESPN.com, Rodriguez may not even be part Sacramento’s first and second string.
Potential First String
PG: Tyreke Evans [rookie]
SG: Kevin Martin [4.7 Wins Produced, 0.115 WP48]
SF: Andres Nocioni [-0.4 Wins Produced, -0.009 WP48]
PF: Jason Thompson [3.0 Wins Produced, 0.063 WP48]
C: Spencer Hawes [-1.0 Wins Produced, -0.021 WP48]
Potential Second String
PG: Beno Udrih [1.6 Wins Produced, 0.034 WP48]
SG: Desmond Mason [-0.3 Wins Produced, -0.014 WP48]
SF: Francisco Garcia [1.8 Wins Produced, 0.044 WP48]
PF: Sean May [-0.6 Wins Produced, -0.093 WP48]
C: John Brockman [rookie]
In addition to these ten players, the Kings also have Rodriguez [2.2 Wins Produced, 0.087 WP48] and Donte Green [-2.4 Wins Produced, -0.161 WP48].
If add together the Wins Produced of each veteran player, all you get is 8.9. That’s it. The veterans the Kings will employ in 2009-10 collectively produced fewer than nine wins last season. So even if Tyreke Evans is as productive as Kobe Bryant (15.0 Wins Produced in 2008-09), the Kings – if these veterans hold form – are going to struggle.
Now there is some hope some of these veterans will not hold form. Kevin Martin in 2007-08 posted a 0.192 WP48 and produced 8.8 wins. In 2006-07, he produced 11.7 wins with a 0.199 WP48. So Martin, if healthy, can produce more than 4.7 wins. Sean May is also capable of doing much better. In 2007-08, May posted a 0.192 WP48. May’s teammate in the Kings second string frontcourt, John Brockman, was also above average in college last season. So the Kings do have two big men on the bench who might help (unfortunately, the Kings have one big man –Spencer Hawes – who has yet to produce as an NBA player).
Because Martin will likely be more productive in 2009-10, we can safely predict that the Kings will reach double digits in wins. But clearly this team is far from contention.
What’s interesting is how little this team did in the off-season. The Kings were a very bad team last year. But the Kings didn’t make much effort to rebuild in the off-season. At least, it seems unlikely that anyone believes Desmond Mason and Sergio Rodriguez are the players this team needs to return to the playoffs.
Why did the Kings do so little? One suspects that this is related to the Kings desire to either a) improve its arena in Sacramento or b) depart Sacramento. If it’s the latter, the Kings argument to the NBA would be strengthened if the Kings continue to have problems drawing fans (think the movie Major League). Last year the Kings finished in last place in average attendance. But back in 2005-06 – the last time the Kings had a winning record – the Kings finished 14th in average attendance. So Sacramento – like fans everywhere – will show up to support a winner.
It appears the attendance problems in Sacramento are really not about the quality of the local market. No, it appears the problem is with the product the Kings are putting on the floor. And that product has been predictably bad, a trend will continue in 2009-10. One hopes that if the Kings become good again, the fans of Sacramento will still get to see this team.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Lior
October 17, 2009
Regarding “below average”:
The average minute played by an NBA player produces 0.100/48 wins, more-or-less by definition (48 minutes by 10 players produce exactly 1 win). In this sense, the average WP48 is 0.100. However, averaging over minutes played is not the same as averaging over the players — due to the talent distribution (the 80-20 rule), we should expect the median player to have WP48 well below 0.100.
With that in mind, I decided it would be instructive to see what the “average WP48” is. Using the mid-season table gives an average of 0.058 and median of 0.060. In other words, the average player (e.g. Jason Thompson) can only give 60% of the average per-minute production in the league.
This shows even more why the Kings are so bad: Kevin Martin is the only above-median player on the team!
dberri
October 17, 2009
Lior,
In the comment section on something I posted recently (not sure which post), I noted the average and median values since 1977-78. It came out around 0.080. You are correct. The 80-20 rule does mean there is a difference between the definition of average and the average across the players.
simon
October 17, 2009
While it’s true that people tend to think of an “average” player being a “median” player, I don’t think it’s that relevant in the context of this blog’s theme since a team full of median players will win less than half of its game. A collection average players, by its definition, should make a team win half of its games, so IMHO it’s better to use .100 as the line of “average.”
Billy
October 17, 2009
I disagree, actually think the Kings will be pretty good with the the players they’ve added. The team will show toughness, which should earn them wins.
Billy
October 17, 2009
I disagree, actually think the Kings will be pretty good with the players they’ve added. The team will show toughness, which will earn them some wins.
Someguy
October 17, 2009
I disagree. If the Kings play tough (i.e. play above their statistical expectations calculated by dr Berri), it will reflect as a statistical improvement. I think that this is very unlikely given the fact that the message coming from ownership and management is far closer to Major League than Hoosiers.
Adam
October 18, 2009
“…while the Kings differential was -8.9 (the 30th worst mark since 2008-09).” A mistake? Then, the Kings were the best team last season..
Billy
October 18, 2009
Adam, no one has written here that the Kings were the best team last season–an irrational inference you’ve taken from my very brief comments, apparently. And I think it’s silly to be stuck on differentials as predictors of performance in following years–it completely disregards the human elements in sports, and I wonder if you have any understanding of what new energy, leadership and chemistry can bring to a team–it can and does often alter a team’s performance, and I think you’ll see a big difference in the Kings this season.
You have also disregarded the fact of a completely overmade roster. Have you even watched their new players–especially Evans and Brockman–and the contagious emotion and toughness they have brought to the team? I predict that guys like Nocioni, Mason and Hawes will all be much better. You may not know that Brockman and Hawes are best buddies, and you’ll see a much more fired up and effective Hawes. This and more translates into wins.
Billy
October 18, 2009
“made over” roster, not “overmade.”
dberri
October 18, 2009
Thanks Adam,
I fixed the typo.
Italian Stallion
October 18, 2009
I’m not sure sure the Kings will be the worst team, but I’m pretty sure if the Knicks play the Nets 82 times this year, they have “a shot” at the playoffs.
Billy
October 18, 2009
Expect 30+ wins from the Kings.
brgulker
October 19, 2009
Man, Billy is cracking me up.
Billy, how does one develop the skill of toughness? How do you envision toughness translating onto the basketball court?
Billy
October 19, 2009
Toughness is about focus, desire, determination, attitude, and emotion. Toughness wins. Toughness as in kicking the other teams butt–rebounding, scrapping on defense, attacking the basket, making free throws. Enough toughness for the Kings to get at least 30 wins this year. Nuf said.
brgulker
October 19, 2009
If I’m reading you correctly, you’re saying that if the Kings develop these qualities:
Toughness is about focus, desire, determination, attitude, and emotion.
then they will do the following things better:
rebounding, scrapping on defense, attacking the basket, making free throws..
In other words, if the Kings play better, they will win more games. I don’t think anyone would disagree with you.
But throwing around meaningless, undefined terms (like toughness and chemistry) won’t go very far to backing up your prediction.
Personally, I have no idea how their current personnel wins 30+ games, but I wouldn’t dispute the point that if they play better defense, improve their rebounding, draw more fouls, and make more free throws, then they will win more games.
Billy
October 19, 2009
What is with you? Can’t you find another way to vent, if that’s what you really need to do? Such real and apparent qualities like toughness, chemistry and the other terms I used are about as “meaningless and undefined” as RESPECT, about which you are clearly unschooled. Get a life.
brgulker
October 19, 2009
I’m not venting. I’m just pressing you and challenging your (unspoken) assumptions.
“Chemistry” has as many meanings as the people who use the term.
“Toughness” has a more obvious meaning, but it’s not necessarily measurable without a specific point of reference — you did not provide that point of reference in your first comments, but you did after I asked (rebounding, defense, attacking the basket). All of those points of reference can be measured, which gives a very specific and concrete definition to the term.
As far as respect goes, well, I never disrespected you; I merely indicated that your posts were entertaining me, which they were.
Billy
October 19, 2009
Why would I need to provide definitions for a punky-ass dumbshit like you? Any intelligent person knows what toughness and chemistry mean and recognize them when he sees them. Intelligent you are not.
brgulker
October 20, 2009
Keep it up, Billy. I’m still laughing :)
reservoirgod
October 24, 2009
I’ve just created an ESPN NBA.COM Fantasy League based on Win Score. You can check out the scoring settings for the league at http://games.espn.go.com/fba/tools/leaguesettings?leagueId=133748. I’m looking for other members to join the league before the season starts. If you’re interested, send your email address to reservoirgod at hotmail dot com.