Feeling Lawson Regrets Yet?

Posted on October 30, 2009 by

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Yes, it has only been two games (so this is a very small sample).  And yes, Brandon Jennings and Ricky Rubio have to play in an NBA game.  But look at what Ty Lawson has done (reported in Table One) across his first two games.

Table One: Ty Lawson after Two Games

These numbers weren’t generated against the Memphis Grizzlies (sorry, Chip).  Lawson’s first two games were at home against the Utah Jazz and on the road against Portland.  As one can see, against these two opponents, Lawson was well above average with respect to every statistic except assists and blocked shots.

Again, it’s early.  But do you think decision-makers in Minnesota, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia – the three teams that took a different point guard than Lawson last summer – are regretting their decision?  If I understand human behavior, I would say no.  And even if Lawson continues to produce, the answer will still be no (people have amazing powers of rationalization when it comes to their own choices).  But I think the fans of these teams – who might have questioned this choice last summer — should start feeling the pangs of regret.  And if not yet, I suspect those pangs will begin soon.

– DJ

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Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.

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