The Wall Street Journal reported the top five starting line-ups – in terms of average WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] – since 1981-82. Here are the top 25 across the same time period:
1. Utah Jazz [1996-97]: 0.238 WP48, 9.39 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 6]
2. Chicago Bulls [1995-96]: 0.236 WP48, 13.00 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 1]
3. Chicago Bulls [1996-97]: 0.221 WP48, 11.61 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 2]
4. LA Lakers [1984-85]: 0.219 WP48, 6.90 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 53]
5. Boston Celtics [1986-87]: 0.217 WP48, 6.50 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 68]
6. Utah Jazz [1998-99]: 0.216 WP48, 7.15 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 44]
7. Phoenix Suns [1992-93]: 0.216 WP48, 6.46 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 69]
8. Boston Celtics [2007-08]: 0.215 WP48, 10.95 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 3]
9. Boston Celtics [2008-09]: 0.214 WP48, 8.02 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 23]
10. Portland Trail Blazers [1990-91]: 0.213 WP48, 8.26 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 18]
11. Orlando Magic [1995-96]: 0.211 WP48, 5.82 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 92]
12. Boston Celtics [1987-88]: 0.210 WP48, 5.86 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 90]
13. LA Lakers [1985-86]: 0.208 WP48, 7.25 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 39]
14. Boston Celtics [1985-86]: 0.208 WP48, 8.94 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 10]
15. San Antonio Spurs [1993-94]: 0.206 WP48, 5.62 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 100]
16. LA Lakers [1986-87]: 0.205 WP48, 8.85 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 11]
17. San Antonio Spurs [1991-92]: 0.204 WP48, 3.32 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 200]
18. LA Lakers [1999-00]: 0.204 WP48, 8.84 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 12]
19. Seattle Super Sonics [1995-96]: 0.203 WP48, 8.01 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 24]
20. Orlando Magic [1994-95]: 0.203 WP48, 7.10 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 45]
21. Dallas Mavericks [2006-07]: 0.203 WP48, 7.81 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 28]
22. Chicago Bulls [1990-91]: 0.203 WP48, 9.20 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 8]
23. Houston Rockets [1996-97]: 0.202 WP48, 4.69 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 130]
24. Phoenix Suns [1989-90]: 0.200 WP48, 6.78 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 58]
25. Phoenix Suns [2007-08]: 0.200 WP48, 5.09 Eff. Dif. [Rank: 115]
The above list reports both the starter’s (top five players in games started) average WP48 as well as the team’s efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency). Across the 759 teams that have played from 1981-82 to 2008-09, these two numbers have a 0.88 correlation. So the quality of your starter’s isn’t everything, but it’s something.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the starters for the Boston Celtics in 2009-10 [Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett] would rank 9th on this list (with a mark of 0.214). What about some other teams this year?
So far the Cleveland Cavaliers have primarily started the following quintet: Maurice Williams, Anthony Parker, LeBron James, Anderson Varejao, Shaquille O’Neal. Last year these five players had an average WP48 of 0.201. And if you replace Parker with Delonte West, the average rises to 0.211 (a mark that ranks in the top 15th).
As noted, it was the LA Lakers that inspired this story. The Lakers starting line-up of Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant, Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum only averaged a 0.153 WP48. If you replace Odom with Pau Gasol this average rises to 0.159. And if Bynum returns to what we saw in 2007-08 [0.358 WP48], then the average rises to 0.199 WP48.
So it’s possible that the Celtics, Cavaliers, and Lakers could field starting line-ups that will crack the top 25 (or come close). Of course, all of this is based on last year’s numbers. And although last year’s numbers are linked to what we see this year, player performance is not constant. So these starting line-ups may be better — or worse — than what is reported above; and we won’t have enough data to see where each team is at for a few more weeks.
The NBA often says it cares. But if it really cared, the NBA would solve our data shortage by scheduling games a bit faster at the start of the season. How about double-headers? They do it in baseball. And if they had a few of these at the start of the NBA season we could get the data we need to answer our questions so much quicker.
Until something like that happens (as if it would), we are left with the limited data we see in November. So look for a few more “Lawson” posts until this season really gets going.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Daniel
November 8, 2009
How about sprinkling in some Blair posts? Maybe compare him and his college win score to Kevin Love, who was also a very productive rookie. DaBeast is averaging about 20-20 per-48 minutes with 66% shooting and he ranked as the best college prospect in the win score projections. Maybe you could talk about how NCAA rebounding numbers really do translate to the NBA, or maybe it can be a post about opportunity-cost/risk taking and the NBA draft.
Arturo
November 8, 2009
Prof.,
Thank you. This is fascinating data. Would it be fair to say that the main difference between the ranks (WP48 v. Eff diff) is due to quality of the bench?
dberri
November 8, 2009
Arturo,
Yes, that is the key difference.
Daniel,
I will get to Blair (eventually).
ilikeflowers
November 9, 2009
Professor,
This is off-topic, but I was just looking at the career numbers for KG and I noticed that he didn’t stop improving until his 8th season. This got me to wondering about the 10 year rule with regards to expertise. Have you taken a systematic look at how long it takes player improvement to plateau based on age? If not could you?
dberri
November 9, 2009
ilikeflowers,
This is discussed in the next book.
ilikeflowers
November 9, 2009
Using KG as a template by giving 2 years of ‘expert credit’ for high school and full credit for each year in college and the NBA this is what I get for a few players:
PY = Plateau Year in NBA
Player – Expected PY – Actual PY
KG – 8 – 8
Melo – 7 – ?
Duncan – 4 – 5
Bron – 8 – ?
TMac – 8 – 6 (injuries)
Kobe – 8 – 4
CP3 – 6 – ?
Dwight Howard – 8 – ?
The interesting thing is that we can expect LeBron, CP3, and Dwight Howard to improve. Although I’m certain that diminishing returns applies, it’s not unreasonable to think that one of these three can approach the rarely attained 0.500 wp.
ilikeflowers
November 9, 2009
Prof,
thanks – can’t wait.
Bump
November 9, 2009
So the greatest team of all time didn’t even win a championship?
ilikeflowers
November 9, 2009
Bump,
I think you’re confusing the greatest starting 5 with the greatest team (since 81-82). The 96-97 Jazz had the best starting 5 but ‘only’ the 6th best team.
brgulker
November 9, 2009
Dr. Berri,
How about a Ben Wallace post?
Talk about an absolute steal for the Pistons this season. He has to be the most productive (or among the top) for the money in the Association, I would think.
Mike G
November 9, 2009
Having watched the Celts first 8 games, I predict we’ll see KG’s WP fall this year. Fewer blocks and lower FG as he struggles to finish strong around the hoop.
Bump
November 9, 2009
Ugh. Careful reading for the win er lose.
Sam Cohen
November 9, 2009
I was surprised not to see any of the Duncan/Robinson or Duncan/Ginobili/Parker Spur’s teams make it onto this list since my recollection is that some of them had very good efficiency differentials. Especially since some of the early 90’s teams did make it onto the list and popular perception is that those early Robinson teams weren’t as good. If you include Ginobili as part of the starting five, does that change the picture for these later Spur’s teams?
Italian Stallion
November 9, 2009
ilikeflowers,
Is that the same as saying they peak around 26-27?
Andrew
November 10, 2009
I want to see something on Trevor Ariza. He’s scoring a lot more this year, but is he still as valuable as he’s been in years past?
ilikeflowers
November 10, 2009
IS,
Yeah, at first glance it looks like that by age 27 most players will have reached their peak basketball expertise and no more improvement is to be expected.
Sean D.
November 10, 2009
The Magic are playing well without Rashard, and Dwight Howard is a man possessed. Watch out East!