Andrew Bynum is apparently off to a great start in L.A. After five games, Bynum is averaging 20.0 points and 10.6 rebounds per game. This is important because the Lakers chances to repeat as champions depend a great deal on the play of Bynum.
To see this point, let’s look back on last season. The Lakers won the NBA title in 2009, giving the world the impression that the Lakers were the best NBA team in 2008-09. Although it’s true the Lakers should have been favored to defeat each team they faced in the 2009 playoffs, some good fortune allowed the Lakers to miss both the Celtics and Cavaliers in the playoffs. Boston – because of Kevin Garnett’s injury – was defeated by the Orlando Magic. And Orlando also upset the Cleveland Cavaliers. As a consequence, the Lakers road to the title was made easier.
One would suspect that such good fortune wouldn’t be repeated in 2010. For the Lakers to expect to repeat, they should have to field an even better team in 2009-10. Unfortunately, the only significant move the Lakers made was essentially swapping Trevor Ariza for Ron Artest. And as noted before, this move probably didn’t make the Lakers any better.
Despite a failure to significantly alter their roster, many people still felt the Lakers were clearly the best team in the West and a good bet to repeat. This position was based on the play of both Bynum and Jordan Farmar (the team’s back-up point guard). The Lakers won a title in 2009 with both of these players offering substantially less than what they offered in 2007-08. If Bynum and Farmar could return to what we saw two years ago, then the Lakers would improve enough to contend with any team in the West; as well as the Cavaliers, Celtics, and Magic.
Just to review, here is what Bynum and Farmer did two years ago:
Andrew Bynum [2007-08]: 0.358 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes]
Jordan Farmar [2007-08]: 0.111 WP48
And here is what each player did last year:
Andrew Bynum [2008-09]: 0.158 WP48 in 1,446 minutes
Jordan Farmar [2008-09]: -0.035 WP48 in 1,192 minutes
Had each player maintained what he did in 2007-08, the Lakers – even without these two players logging any more time on the court – could have challenged the Chicago Bulls record of 72 regular season wins in 1995-96. So if these two players could return to form, then the Lakers in 2009-10 would be a very good team indeed.
Seven games have now been played in 2009-10 and the Lakers are now 6-1. The Lakers efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency), though, is only 5.4. To put that in perspective, last year the team’s differential was 7.8. So the Lakers – despite their record – haven’t looked as good as last year. In fact, their current mark is consistent with a team that will win about 55 games. Yes, this would be wonderful for the LA Clippers. But for the Lakers, 55 wins would be a great disappointment.
What about Bynum and Farmar? Well, both have improved. But despite the numbers reported at the start of this column, neither is back to what he was in 2007-08. After seven games here is what each player has done:
Andrew Bynum after seven games (okay five games) in 2009-10: 0.181 WP48 in 200 minutes
Jordan Farmar after seven games in 2009-10: 0.063 WP48 in 199 minutes
What of the other players on the Lakers?
Here is what these players did last year:
First String
PG: Derek Fisher [2.6Wins Produced, 0.051 WP48]
SG: Kobe Bryant [15.0 Wins Produced, 0.244 WP48]
SF: Ron Artest [4.6 Wins Produced, 0.089 WP48]
PF: Pau Gasol [15.6 Wins Produced, 0.250 WP48]
C: Andrew Bynum [4.8 Wins Produced, 0.158 WP48]
Second String
PG: Jordan Farmar [-0.9 Wins Produced, -0.035 WP48]
SG: Sasha Vujacic [2.7 Wins Produced, 0.099 WP48]
SF: Luke Walton [2.2 Wins Produced, 0.091 WP48]
PF: Lamar Odom [10.6 Wins Produced, 0.220 WP48]
C: D.J. Mbenga [-1.5 Wins Produced, -0.084 WP48 for career]
And here is what everyone is doing this year:
First String
PG: Derek Fisher [199 Minutes, -0.024 WP48]
SG: Kobe Bryant [275 Minutes, 0.225 WP48]
SF: Ron Artest [260 Minutes, 0.123 WP48]
PF: Pau Gasol [injured]
C: Andrew Bynum [200 Minutes, 0.181 WP48]
Second String
PG: Jordan Farmar [199 Minutes, 0.063 WP48]
SG: Sasha Vujacic [55 Minutes, 0.048 WP48]
SF: Luke Walton [80 Minutes, 0.229 WP48]
PF: Lamar Odom [261 Minutes, 0.160 WP48]
C: D.J. Mbenga [82 Minutes, 0.183 WP48]
When we look over this roster we see that Kobe is still Kobe. And Odom is still above average. When Gasol finally returns, this will be a very good team. But without Bynum returning to what we saw in 2007-08, I still don’t see how this team is much better than what we saw last year. And I don’t think what we saw last year is going to be good enough to win the title in 2010.
Let me close by noting that the analysis of 2009-10 is obviously based on a very small sample size. Bynum could change his overall performance with one great game (or decline quite a bit with one really bad performance). So we shouldn’t behave like Jeff Bower – GM of the Hornets – and reach any strong conclusions from such a small sample. All that’s being said at this point is that if people were hoping to see the Andrew Bynum from 2007-08, that Bynum hasn’t appeared yet (and of course, Bynum has already missed two games because of injury — which is a completely different story).
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
PJ
November 12, 2009
“So we shouldn’t behave like Jeff Bower – GM of the Hornets – and reach any strong conclusions from such a small sample.”
Is this a reference to Byron Scott being fired? Because it’s not like this season is the only sample there. If anything, that decision seems overdue.
tfrab
November 12, 2009
This is obviously a small sample, DJ Mbenga is probably not gonna be that good all season long.
I wonder if Artest is gonna keep those number: any method to estimate coaching ability?
What about Shannon Brown and J Powell?
dberri
November 12, 2009
PJ,
I think Bower is over-reacting to nine games. If the Hornets are 5-4 does he make the same decision? And if it is based on last season, why wait until now to fire the coach? Was he waiting for Tim Floyd (Tim Floyd?) to answer his phone?
I was going to comment on the Hornets, but the Bynum post was almost finished when I saw the news. Perhaps my next post is on the Hornets.
pablasso
November 12, 2009
It’s “Jordan Farmar” not “Jordan Farmer”
Tom
November 12, 2009
I always feel bad for basketball boxscore statisticians because they usually try pretty hard and they have such poor data to work with. Then they try to conclude stuff.
It’s like they are the littler much less talented brother of baseball boxscore statisticians trying to be just like their big bro.
Bill
November 12, 2009
Isn’t it a little early to be making predictions for the season?
Rocabatus
November 12, 2009
If you actually read what is written here, you would notice that basketball stats are much more consistent over time than baseball ones. But you probably just want stick to what you think, not to trouble yourself with something that just might be right.
Philip
November 12, 2009
Somewhat related — is Greg Oden finally here?
Italian Stallion
November 12, 2009
If Bynum is not playing back to his peak season right now, I can’t see how he’s going to do so when Gasol comes back.
I know the general feeling is that diminishing returns is not a huge factor, but when you are talking about 2 big men, I think Gasol simply IS going to get some of Bynum’s rebounds and points in the paint. There are only so many shots and rebounds inside.
todd2
November 13, 2009
There might just be more “gray” in baseball stats. A Gold Glove center fielder can lower a pitcher’s ERA. Or, having a great hitter in the lineup can improve everyone else’s hitting.
Duchess
November 13, 2009
Really todd2? More gray in baseball stats? Not like having a teammate set a screen, be a good enough shooter to prevent doubles, making good entry passes, creating off a drive, or any other numerous operations that happen on a given play affect the stats of each individual? Also Stallion makes a point unintentionally that needs to be said. It doesn’t matter if Bynum’s WP drops because Gasol grabs some of his rebounds, it’s total team rebound percentage that matters. What advanced stats people track is amount of rebounds in a players area go to his team.
Duchess
November 13, 2009
Really todd2? More gray in baseball stats? Not like having a teammate set a screen, be a good enough shooter to prevent doubles, making good entry passes, creating off a drive, or any other numerous operations that happen on a given play affect the stats of each individual? Also Stallion makes a point unintentionally that needs to be said. It doesn’t matter if Bynum’s WP drops because Gasol grabs some of his rebounds, it’s total team rebound percentage that matters. What advanced stats people track is amount of rebounds in a players area go to his team
Italian Stallion
November 13, 2009
>>It doesn’t matter if Bynum’s WP drops because Gasol grabs some of his rebounds, it’s total team rebound percentage that matters. What advanced stats people track is amount of rebounds in a players area go to his team.<<
Duchess,
I obviously agree that when Gasol comes back the Lakers will be a better team. I just think Bynum's own box score stats will be impacted negatively.
I don't think that kind of thing is always the case though. If great PG or SG comes back, that could have a positive impact on a big man's box score stats by creating more space and getting him the ball in better spots.
Jason
November 15, 2009
Hey David,
I love your work and this site is brilliant. Just a quick question regarding this article.
Did you calculate Farmars’ WP48 using 199 minutes coz after 9 games he only has 147 minutes played and I figure him to be closer to .110 than .065 which is pretty close to him returning back to his 07-08 numbers.