The Sacramento Kings are one of the worst teams in the NBA. That would have been the consensus of most NBA observers before the 2009-10 season began. In fact, I asked in October: Will the Kings be Crowned the Worst Team in 2009-10?
Explaining Expectations
Reviewing the Kings potential depth chart before the season began, it’s easy to see why someone (okay, me) would conclude this team would be so bad:
Potential First String
PG: Tyreke Evans [rookie]
SG: Kevin Martin [4.7 Wins Produced, 0.115 WP48]
SF: Andres Nocioni [-0.4 Wins Produced, -0.009 WP48]
PF: Jason Thompson [3.0 Wins Produced, 0.063 WP48]
C: Spencer Hawes [-1.0 Wins Produced, -0.021 WP48]
Potential Second String
PG: Beno Udrih [1.6 Wins Produced, 0.034 WP48]
SG: Desmond Mason [-0.3 Wins Produced, -0.014 WP48]
SF: Francisco Garcia [1.8 Wins Produced, 0.044 WP48]
PF: Sean May [-0.6 Wins Produced, -0.093 WP48]
C: John Brockman [rookie]
As noted in the post detailing this depth chart, the returning veterans produced less than nine wins last year. And only one player –Kevin Martin – was above average last year. These numbers suggest the Kings were going to struggle in 2009-10. After nine games, though, the Kings have already won five contests. Yes, the Kings have a winning record. And although it’s early, it doesn’t look like Sacramento will be the worst team in the NBA in 2009-10. So how did this happen?
Meeting Expectations
The obvious first place to look is the play of Kevin Martin. Thus far Martin is averaging 30.6 points per game and his WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] of 0.261 is clearly an improvement over what we saw last year (and closer to what we saw before 2008-09). Martin, though, has only played five games and the Kings lost four of these contests. So maybe it ain’t all about Martin.
Well, what about Tyreke Evans, the Kings lottery pick in 2009 (the reward for being so bad last year)? Thus far Evans is second on the team in scoring, averaging 16.8 points per game. Evans, though, is not a very efficient scorer so his WP48 is only 0.058 (average is 0.100).
What about Andres Nocioni, Spencer Hawes, Beno Udrih, Desmond Mason, or Sean May? These players were all below average last year. And this year — as the following list illustrates – all are still below average. In fact, Mason played so poorly that he went from the starting line-up to the unemployment line.
Spencer Hawes [266 minutes, -0.063 WP48]
Desmond Mason [66 minutes, 0.023 WP48]
Sean May [82 minutes, -0.184 WP48]
Andres Nocioni [239 minutes, 0.016 WP48]
Beno Udrih [237 minutes, 0.069 WP48]
Okay, let’s summarize. Martin did return to form (this was expected), but this apparently hasn’t helped much yet. Most veterans are playing as badly as they did last year (this was also expected). And Evans is not very productive yet (this was also somewhat expected). So thus far, most players on the Kings are who we thought they were (quoting Dennis Green). But the Kings as a team are much better. So what gives?
An Answer
There are three players who are part of Sacramento’s rotation who have not been mentioned. Omri Casspi [170 minutes, 0.126 WP48] and John Brockman [60 minutes, 0.133 WP48] are rookies, and each has been above average.
Although both Casspi and Brockman have helped, neither player is doing enough to transform the Kings. Last year the Kings had an efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) of -8.9. This year the Kings have a -0.5 differential. This difference in these differentials is worth about 22 wins across an 82 game season. To get all these wins, a major producer of wins had to be added to the roster. But none of the players we have reviewed so far is doing enough to produce such a large leap.
Fans of the Kings know there is one name that has been ignored so far. And fans of the Kings probably know who is responsible for Sacramento’s improvement. As a rookie, Jason Thompson was below average [3.0 Wins Produced, 0.063 WP48]. After 310 minutes this year, though, Thompson’s WP48 stands at 0.257. If Thompson continues to produce at this level – and he continues to play 34 minutes per game – when the season ends Thompson will produce about 15 wins. Last year the Kings only won 17 games. So Thompson’s dramatic improvement is enough to significantly change the fortunes of this team.
Forecasting Problems
This story highlights a problem anyone has forecasting the NBA. Relative to what we see in baseball and football, basketball players are far more consistent. Nevertheless, performance can change. Injuries – as we see with Kevin Martin – can cause performance to change dramatically. And age will cause players to get better early in their career (and cause declines later on). In general, the shape of the age profile is a gentle slope (we discuss this in our next book). But in Thompson’s case, we are seeing a dramatic leap; a leap that I don’t think we could have expected given his performance last year.
Hence we see the problem of forecasting. On average, we see gradual changes as people age. But sharp changes are possible (both upwards for young players and downward for the aged). Injuries – and recovery from injuries — are hard to forecast. And finally, the performance of rookies is hard to predict. Given all this, forecasts before the season are difficult. In sum, we can do a pretty good job explaining what happened after the fact. But the future – even with all the great numbers the NBA producers – will still be cloudy.
Of course, this is just a problem for people like me who like to play with numbers. For fans of the Kings, the important story is what has happened to this team. Assuming Jason Thompson is for real (it is early, so maybe he isn’t), the Kings now have two players (Martin & Thompson) who can be significant producer of wins. If Brockman and Casspi get minutes and keep producing, Sacramento is suddenly a team this isn’t horrible. If this story starts to be understood by fans in Sacramento, maybe attendance for this team can rebound. And then, just maybe, Sacramento – primarily because of the play (and rebounding) of Jason Thompson — can keep its NBA team.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
khandor
November 15, 2009
David,
Yes, Jason Thompson is contuining to improve as a highly regarded young player from the 2008 Draft; and, young Mr. Casspi is certainly off to a fine start in his NBA career … BUT, do not make the mistake of discounting the fact that the Kings have actually IMPROVED without Kevin Martin on the floor for big minutes, due to his recent injury, as he is most assuredly a defensive and rebounding liability for Sacramento.
A basic truth about the NBA game is this: Offensive efficiency that also comes with poorous defense and rebounding abilities is really not a very valuable commodity in this league.
As such, the Kings are much better off having to replace Mr. Martin’s points scored and assists on approximately 40% of their offensive possessions per game by committee from the other semi-potent players on their roster now … i.e. Evans, Thompson, Nocioni, Casspi, Hawes and Udrih … without constantly having to cover-up for his various short-comings on the opposite end of the floor for approximately 60% [or more] of their defensive possessions per game.
What the Kings now have in …
– Udrih is a solid, if unspectacular PG
– Evans is a natural OG
– Nocioni is a solid, if unspectacular SF
– Thompson is a very nice, mobile and skilled PF
– Hawes is a solid, mobile and skilled C
– Casspi is a highly versatile young player
none of whom is a sieve, in terms of Defense and Rebounding, at the position he is now playing major minutes at for Sacramento. In fact, each of these players is in a well-defined role that best-suits his specific skillset in the NBA.
Owen
November 15, 2009
Khandor – Martin was averaging 4.7 rebounds per 36 before he got hurt. And he has been above 4.4 every year in his career other than last year, when he played injured.
How exactly is he a rebounding liability?
And if Jason Thompson just needed Martin off the court to blossom, why didn’t it happen last year, when Martin missed 31 games?
ilikeflowers
November 15, 2009
Owen, the ‘khandor Basketball Acumen’ model says so, thus it must be.
khandor
November 15, 2009
Owen,
Did the Kings also have Evans and Nocioni and Casspi for those 31 games last season that Martin missed?
I don’t think they did.
What Martin’s average rebounding stats might happen to be do not mean that he should not be considered as a defensive and rebounding liability for the Kings … vs what their squad can put on the floor, in his absence, a the #1, #2, #3, #4 and #5 positions AND what those same players bring to the table for Sacramento, individually and collectively.
———————————————————
ilikeflowers,
re: the ‘khandor Basketball Acumen’ model
LOL, :-)
It’s important to have a good sense of humour.
Kevin
November 16, 2009
Actually, Win Score and Erich Doerr liked Thompson straight out of college, as I recall. The public didn’t understand his choice, and thought Sacramento’s management made an error. Didn’t people think Darrell Arthur would be the way to go, or Anthony Randolph (they were constantly in the lottery predictions of ESPN and many others)? No time to look it up…
Billy
November 16, 2009
True to my much disputed prediction, the Kings are winning due to a fresh infusion of toughness.
Drenoth
November 16, 2009
I’m a King’s faithful and I think what the statistics of an individual player many times over look is that the player is only as good as the roles the coaching staff assign. Sac has been without an effective concept on either defense or offense for the past 3 yrs.
I think the new coaching staff should be credited with clearly assigning roles to the players… so you can certainly have the same players producing at a much better level than in years past, i.e.: Beno is a good example. Any competitive sport is greatly mental and psychological. That confidence and trust factor is difficult to quantify in statistical numbers, but will add up to wins, by keeping the games close and winning it in the 4th quarter, rather than folding… mental toughness. The Kings had a lot of close games last year and won very few of those contests. It’s to early to tell, but it seems that mental block has been lifted from this year’s King’s team.
Brothersteve
November 17, 2009
Are the Kings doing this with smoke and mirrors?
I’d give them to the quarter poll before announcing they fooled us all.
But 5-4 who knew?
Johnny Y.
November 17, 2009
I’m Curious about something. On the surface, It appears that Tyreke Evans improved since Kevin Martin went down with injury. I’m wondering if this is true by your evaluations, or if its just a by product of him having the ball more often now.
Johnny Y.
November 17, 2009
Some quick Number crunching on Tyreke Evans:
5 Games With Kevin Martin
22/62 = 35.5% FG%
11/20 = 55% FT%
11.2 PPG
3 RPG
3.6 APG
1.6 SPG
O BPG
2.4 TO
~31 Min per game
4 Games Without Kevin Martin
29/63 = 46% FG%
32/38 = 84% FT%
23.75 PPG
6.25 RPG
5.25 APG
1.25 SPG
.25 BPG
2.5 TO
~36 Min per game
To me, the thing that stands out the most is that his FG% and FT% and FT attempts have shot up dramatically since Kevin Martin went down. Its a pretty small sample size, but the improvement seems rather dramatic to me at least.
khandor
November 17, 2009
1. It’s no coincidence at all.
——————-
brothersteve,
The only unforeseen aspect to the Kings improved play so far this season has been the injury to Kevin Martin … and the resulting domino effect it’s had on the rest of Sacramento’s line-up, in terms of creating better fit role definition for very useful players like Udrih, Evans, Nocioni, Casspi Thompson and Hawes.
As long as Martin’s out … and they don’t do anything really stupid from a personnel standpoint … the Kings should be able to continue to make gradual improvements for the balance of this season. Then, once Martin is healthy again, if the Kings use him off the bench, as a limited edition “role player” on the wing who can fill it up in bunches, if/when the individual match-ups are in his favour, they will have the makings of a solid rotation.
Chicago Tim
November 18, 2009
The Bulls (and particularly Noah) did a great job against Jason Thompson last night at both ends of the floor.