Who is the best team in the West? If we consider preseason hype, it’s the Lakers. If we consider won-loss record, it’s the surprising Phoenix Suns. But if we consider efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency), the top team is the Portland Trail Blazers. Yes, the Phoenix Suns have the best record (9-2). The Suns’ differential, though, is only 3.90 (the Lakers without Pau Gasol have a 2.02 mark). The Trail Blazers, with a mark of 7.89, clearly lead the conference (second is the Dallas Mavericks with a mark of 6.76).
So why are the Blazers doing so well? Last year the Blazers finished second in the conference in efficiency differential with a 5.93 mark. In the off-season, the team added Andre Miller and let Channing Frye and Sergio Rodriguez depart. These moves left the Blazers with the following depth chart (Wins Produced and WP48 numbers from 2008-09):
Potential First String
Steve Blake: 2,188 min., 5.3 Wins Produced, 0.117 WP48
Brandon Roy: 2,903 min., 15.3 Wins Produced, 0.253 WP48
Nicolas Batum: 1,454 min., 3.7 Wins Produced, 0.123 WP48
LaMarcus Aldridge: 3,004 min., 6.7 Wins Produced, 0.107 WP48
Greg Oden: 1,314 min., 4.2 Wins Produced, 0.154 WP48
Potential Bench
Andre Miller: 2,976 min., 11.1 Wins Produced, 0.178 WP48
Rudy Fernandez: 1,993 min., 6.9 Wins Produced, 0.167 WP48
Travis Outlaw: 2,246 min., 2.6 Wins Produced, 0.055 WP48
Joel Przybilla: 1,952 min., 11.7 Wins Produced, 0.288 WP48
Average WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minute] is 0.100. So last year, eight of the nine players the Blazers were planning on employing in their regular rotation in 2009-10 were above average.
Before this season started, Nicolas Batum was hurt. His replacement – Martell Webster – only played five minutes last year; and in 2007-08 he only posted a 0.057 WP48 (that was his best season ever). So losing Batum hurts, although not too much. In fact, as noted, the Blazers are better this year. And when we look at the team’s depth chart, we can see who is responsible for Portland’s early success.
Potential First String
Steve Blake: 354 min., 0.053 WP48
Brandon Roy: 441 min., 0.192 WP48
Martell Webster: 246 min., 0.091 WP48
LaMarcus Aldridge: 390 min., 0.171 WP48
Greg Oden: 291 min., 0.271 WP48
Potential Bench
Andre Miller: 348 min., 0.087 WP48
Rudy Fernandez: 262 min., 0.270 WP48
Travis Outlaw: 231 min., 0.015 WP48
Joel Przybilla: 232 min., 0.231 WP48
These numbers are from the first 12 games of the season. So once again we need to remember that the sample is still small. In other words, forecasting from this sample for each player is not advised (although that won’t stop me from talking about the future). But we can say who is responsible for the outcomes observed across the first 12 games.
Of the nine players listed above, only five are above average. But these five – Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, and Joel Przybilla — have played very well. Judging by past performance, we should not be surprised by the productivity of Roy, Fernandez, and Przybilla. And it looks like Oden is finally becoming the dominant player people expected to see when he was taken with the first pick in the 2007 NBA draft. The only real surprise is the play of Aldridge. At least, given that Aldridge has been called “overrated” in this forum, readers of The Wages of Wins Journal might be surprised.
Then again, maybe this isn’t a shock. Here is what Aldridge has done across his first three seasons:
2006-07: age 21, 0.055 WP48
2007-08: age 22, 0.078 WP48
2008-09: age 23, 0.107 WP48
Perhaps what we are seeing from Aldridge is just the standard progression we generally see with young players. If this is true, then a) Aldridge won’t be considered overrated in 2009-10, and b) the Blazers have one more extremely productive player.
Before the season started it was argued that the addition of Andre Miller was important. As the above numbers indicate, though, Miller has been below average. However, one should note that Miller was inserted into the starting line-up after Portland’s first five games. And he has been above average since this move was made (so that would give the Blazers six above average players).
With so many productive players on the roster, it seems like Portland is probably going to remain one of the top teams – if not the top team – in the West. So, all those people who expect the Lakers to automatically return to the NBA Finals might want to think again. The Blazers are a legitimate contender to win the West. And given the age of many of their most productive players, Portland should (barring injury) remain a contender beyond 2009-10.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Brothersteve
November 17, 2009
The Blazers are looking good – just like they finished off last year strong!
At 8-4 they proving they are a “contender” – but I’ll wait until the 20 game mark to see how this holds up under a little adversity.
Austin
November 17, 2009
I am a huge Blazers homer, and pretty optimistic about the year. A few things that are of note though:
1. our strength of schedule has been pretty abysmal. Minnesota twice, Memphis and New Orleans minus Chris Paul? Those 4 games certainly contributed to the efficiency differential.
2. Batum being out does hurt quite a bit, because now Travis Outlaw is out as well – and though Travis isn’t particularly productive, and it does lead to playing Rudy Fernandez more, it also means more Brandon Roy at SF and Juwan Howard playing some backup PF, both of which are inferior replacements.
Still, it’s definitely encouraging that Miller’s play has been better since he’s started – although again versus weaker teams – in addition to what has been heard from Philly fans about him being a ‘slow starter’.
Italian Stallion
November 17, 2009
Could you take a look at the Suns?
I am curious about Channing Frye.
My guess is that rated as a C (which IMO he clearly isn’t) he’s not going to rate very well because he doesn’t rebound much, doesn’t block shots at all etc… In fact, he’s not even a typical PF.
IMO he’s a SF in a PF’s body playing C for a team that likes to run and space the floor.
Whatever that means, I think he has been pretty valuable to them with his excellent 3 point shooting so far this year even if it doesn’t show up in the stats because he’s rated as a C.
Philip
November 17, 2009
Good to see Rip City getting some notice.
I agree with Austin though, our schedule has been relatively easy. The injuries worry me too. It will take a few more game before I really start believing we’re #1.
Bannon
November 17, 2009
Dave,
Your boy Malcolm Gladwell is fighting over you in The New York Times. Time to get his back with a long post knocking down Steven Pinker’s silly position!
dberri
November 17, 2009
Bannon,
I will try and have something on Pinker up tomorrow. Not sure it is going to be that long. But I will offer a comment.
simulator
November 17, 2009
Wait, I thought that Berri used to say that playoffs are too small of a sample size to determine who’s the best? And now here he is giving all the props to Portland after 12 games!
Bannon
November 17, 2009
Excellent. You’re right, a long post is probably unnecessary to convey your point.
It’s Allen Iverson all over again. “That statement defies my expectation….it MUST be wrong!”
khandor
November 17, 2009
re: Portland’s performance, thus far
As I’ve said before …
It’s always interesting when David’s “numbers” and my “acumen” seem to converge at the same intersection; and, in this case, specifically, when his “numbers” seem to converge with some of the same raw “numbers” which I use myself to evaluate the relative performance of different NBA teams. FYI, re: Portland’s current placing at the Top of the WC.
Johnny Y.
November 17, 2009
Any chance of a post about Phoenix?
Rob
November 18, 2009
My opinion on Phoenix
Huge improvement from Jason Richardson, Jared Dudley, and Channing Frye. Nash stellar as always. Maybe even a little bit improved. Barbosa and Stoudemire actually hurting have regressed and are hurting efficiency. Still have more wins than would be predicted by efficiency metric.
Tball
November 18, 2009
And only one team has swept (or completed) a season series against Portland this year. To plan or not to plan a post on the ‘no plan’ plan, that is my question.
The Hoops Freak
November 18, 2009
dberri, you keep mentioning “all those people” when referencing Lakers supporters. Whom do you mean?
There are a lot of great teams and the Lakers have yet to play at full strength. Nothing is guaranteed.
Chicago Tim
November 18, 2009
I notice you did not mention that Atlanta is the best in the East. How do we explain that, will it last, and when will Atlanta fans realize what they have and show up to their games? I’m tempted to move to Georgia and buy season tickets!
Troy
November 18, 2009
10 of the Blazers first 22 games will be against the Wolves, Grizzlies, Hornets, Bobcats, Warriors, Nets and Knicks. Their signature win is beating the Rockets on opening night. (the only win they have against a +500 team) They lost to the Nuggets on their home floor, when the Nuggets were on the second night of a back to back and were missing JR Smith due to suspension.
I’m not saying the Blazers aren’t a championship contender. I do expect them to actually beat some quality teams before I actually believe it.
ilikeflowers
November 18, 2009
professor, can we get a post on the Hawks?
From my rough calculations it looks like the Hawks are getting superstar-level production out of Smith and Horford (0.300+ each). With 7 of their 9 wins attributable to just these two players. This is great for the Hawks assuming they can keep it up (and that my calculations are correct). At this rate, since they are only 21 and 23 respectively it’s not out of the question for them to both exceed 0.400 by the time they hit their primes (around age 27). If that happens all the Hawks would have to do is surround them with average players to be a championship caliber team. Of course it’s still just a small sample.
Michael
November 18, 2009
If both those guys hit 0.400 then the Hawks would contend no matter who played alongside them. Picture James and Paul on the same team.
I think diminishing returns would make that scenario unlikely however.
ilikeflowers
November 18, 2009
Michael,
If they average 0.400 taken together then assuming 36 minutes a game that’s only 49 wins. I’m assuming that you mean contend for a title in the sense that they would be favored to make it to the championship. A team that wins 49 games probably isn’t going to be championship caliber. An average supporting case get’s them another 16 wins and probably a ring.
I’d really like to see the actual numbers though. I just estimated wp48 from PAWSmin using the 2005 weights.
BTW I’m getting 0.360 for Smith and 0.310 for Horford. Horford had 0.201 last year so 0.250-0.300 for this year sounds reasonable. I’m thinking that Smith will probably regress down to 0.200 or so given that he finished last year at 0.116. He is extremely young though so maybe a large jump isn’t uncommon at his age.
khandor
November 18, 2009
ilikeflowers,
This one is just for you … FYI. :-)
ilikeflowers
November 18, 2009
khandor, I like Horford, Love, and Jefferson based upon proven production and age. All three will likely break 0.300 in their prime. Smith and Randolph are intriguing and Griffin may end up the best of the bunch, but if Griffin ends up around 0.400 and the guy I pick is ‘only’ around 0.330 I’ll be happy with my risk-averse decision. Jefferson is injured and 24 so I’ll eliminate him. This leaves Horford and his complete overall skillset (using my personal eyeball model) vs. Love and his serious production (0.234) at age 21. I think I’m going to choose Love since he has more years of improvement left and he’s likely to be cheaper. This will allow me to keep my team together long-term even after we give Wade or LeBron a max contract.
ilikeflowers
November 18, 2009
I forget the ;^)
Michael
November 19, 2009
I could be wrong but I believe Paul and James produced more than 49 wins last year.
Isaac
November 19, 2009
The increases in Josh Smith’s rebounding and fg% came because he moved closer to the basket. Smith has eliminated the 3 point shot from his game. Smith is not a very good 3 point shooter (career 26.9%) and removing that shot from his arsenal has done wonders for his fg%. That is not to say that just removing the shot accounts for his increase in production. He is waiting for better shots, making more passes, and playing patient basketball. The addition of Crawford (not a WoW favorite I know) has taken a lot of the scoring pressure (and 3pt shots) away of Josh Smith and allowed him to settle into a role that better suits his skill set.
ilikeflowers
November 19, 2009
Michael, they produced 56 wins between them last year, but CP3 is in Magic and MJ territory at 0.470 and LBJ was at 0.426. They’d still need a productive (though not above average) supporting cast to win a championship.
khandor
November 19, 2009
ilikeflowers,
Unfortunately for your preferred choice, Al Horford wasn’t amoung the options in that poll because he is the Starting Center for the Atlanta Hawks, alongside of Josh Smith [PF].
While there are other fine young PFs in the NBA today, I do believe that I might be the ONLY analyst who identified Josh Smith prior to the start of this season as being THE ONE who he would choose above all the others, if given that exact choice.
As the remainder of this season unfolds, it will be very interesting to see if Josh can maintain his current level of performance. :-)