Okay, I couldn’t resist commenting on the story that the Philadelphia 76ers might bring Iverson back. Here is how my latest at Huffington Post Sports begins:
The 2009-10 NBA season began with Allen Iverson – the Answer – playing for the Memphis Grizzlies. After coming off the bench for three games, though, Iverson and the Grizzlies decided to part ways. And then a few days ago, Iverson announced his retirement.
Iverson’s commitment to retirement, though, seems about as strong as his commitment to Memphis. On Saturday, ESPN.com reported that the Philadelphia 76ers are considering bringing the Answer out of retirement. But will Iverson help Philadelphia?
The answer to this question seems obvious. As of Saturday, Philadelphia was 5-11. The team’s efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) was -5.2; a mark that projects to only 28 wins across an entire season. So Philadelphia is bad.
And of course, Iverson is one of the greatest players to ever play the game.
Well, not really. Read the rest at Huffington Post Sports…
At Huffington Post Sports I primarily commented on the productivity of Iverson, Andre Iguodala, and Louis Williams. Let me add to this story with a brief comment on Elton Brand.
Across his first eight seasons, Elton Brand produced 104.1 wins and posted a 0.215 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes]. And then he got hurt. Since this initial injury, Brand has played 43 games in parts of 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10. In these games he has produced 2.3 wins and posted a 0.067 WP48. In 16 games in 2009-10 his WP48 is only 0.049.
Brand is now 30 years of age (as noted at Huffington Post, the early 30s are a young age for an economist but an old age for a basketball player). The Sixers still owe Brand $50 million after this season, and it’s beginning to look like this money is not going to generate the return hoped for when Brand arrived in Philadelphia.
Despite the problems with Brand, the Sixers do have some productive players. Andre Iguodala remains one of the better shooting guards in the NBA (his WP48 is not far from the mark posted by Kobe Byrant). And Louis Williams and Marreese Speights – two very young players – have also been above average this season.
Unfortunately, Brand, Samuel Dalembert, Willie Green, Jrue Holiday, Jason Kapono, Jason Smith, and Thaddeus Young have all been below average. Of the veteran players, only Dalembert was an above average performer in 2008-09. And Holiday was chosen before Ty Lawson (as expected, not a good choice).
In sum, mistakes have been made in building the Sixers. But it does look like this team has made a few good moves in building this roster. Adding Iverson, though, doesn’t look like a move that will fall under the heading of “a few good moves.” In other words, bringing Iverson home is not likely to bring the Sixers closer to the playoffs in 2010.
Update: Mark noted that L.Williams is out for two months (sorry I missed that). I have updated the Huffington Post column with this information. Thanks to Mark for noting this injury.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Robert
November 29, 2009
Thoughts on playing Iggy at the 3, in order to free up SG spot for AI? That way he can start, doesn’t take away minutes from the good Sixer players, and also takes minutes away from the real bad Sixer players? (Willie Green and Jrue Holiday)
The team isn’t really going anywhere but it seems like that version would likely produce a few more wins. I’m not sure if that’s the aim of the team this year, but in the short term probably slightly better.
Mark
November 29, 2009
The value of AI seems to be that he can shoulder a big enough scoring load so that low usage, efficient players can play alongside him. As Trevor Ariza and the Rockets seem to be showing us, someone has to take the shots when you’ve got a team of traditionally low-usage players. Houston is a good team because they get so many more shots than other teams, not because they make a good percentage. A good team can be built around Iverson, especially the Denver version of Iverson, in the same way.
Mark
November 29, 2009
Also, people seem to be forgetting that Lou Williams is out for nearly two months with a broken jaw.
dberri
November 29, 2009
Thanks Mark for noting the injury to L.Williams. I updated the posts with this information.
Ray
November 29, 2009
OMG no respect for Iverson??? The dude is one of the 20 greatest players of all time! Of all time!
Just kidding. Great post DB. The Sixers are a mess and I with Brand’s corpse on their payroll, it looks like they’re stuck.
kevin
November 30, 2009
Why a young team with a bad record would want Iverson is beyond me. He’s old. He’s not interested in contributing off the bench. He can’t play defense. He can’t help you win. He’s a poor example for young players to emulate.
Wait. I know. He’ll help the Sixers improve their lottery position. OK, if he signs of rhe minimum, I can see signing Iverson.
Keith
November 30, 2009
A year ago in https://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/07/13/the-brand-value/ you were saying signing Brand was a great move
Now you’re saying mistakes were made. Indeed!
Brand was hurt before Philly signed him. He played only 8 games for LAC in 07-08 but the Sixers gave him the long term big money deal anyway.
Bad idea. Also see Gilbert Arenas.
E Forsche
November 30, 2009
Wins = c + j*PTS/PE – k*DPTS/PA + e
differentiating with respect to PTS we get Marginal value of PTS = j/PE. j is the coefficient; what value of PE is used?
I see PE = FGA+0.47*FTA + TO – REBO. This can be calculated for each game. But if I am looking at seasons 2000/01 to 2007/08 what value of PE should I substitute in j/PE? Is it the (total PE for every game under consideration)/number of games under consideration?
Thanks
dberri
November 30, 2009
E Forsche,
In calculating the marginal values I use the average number of PE across the sample used to estimate the model. One could also get values for each specific season or for each specific team.
Ray
November 30, 2009
Is there a way somebody can post the WP48 for the Cavs this season? I’m interested to see who all is not playing up to the expectations that made Dberri predict the title. My guess would be Z, Parker, and the lack of Delonte. LeBron, Mo, Andy, and Moon are all probably where they were a year ago. I love Delonte and Moon, by the way. Hate Parker like the plague.
Bill
November 30, 2009
Would AI help New Jersey? They are lacking on the offensive end. Would AI be an improvement until someone else can be found?
ilikeflowers
November 30, 2009
Cavaliers EstWP48
LeBron James……….0.4
Mo Williams………..0.1
Anthony Parker……..0.08
J.J. Hickson……….0.01
Shaquille O’Neal……0.09
Daniel Gibson………0.02
Zydrunas Ilgauskas…-0.02
Anderson Varejao……0.23
Jamario Moon……….0.3
Delonte West……….0.03
Bron, Varejao, and Moon are all the same. Delonte is playing like one would expect given his off the court issues and Shaq and Z are old. Of course I’m sure that they primarily signed Shaq in order to defend Howard in the playoffs.
ilikeflowers
November 30, 2009
It’d be nice if they could get Moon some more playing time. Given that LeBron’s basically an over-sized point-forward anyway, playing him at the 2 with Moon at the 3 might work.