Unemployment is a pressing concern in this nation. And the New Jersey Nets aren’t helping. After starting the season with 16 consecutive losses the Nets have decided to let Lawrence Frank join the ranks of the unemployed. But is the head coach the reason this team is winless? As always, let’s look at the numbers.
The first numbers we want to consider is efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency). After 16 games (I am ignoring the first game after Frank departed), the Nets mark was -11.1. Such a mark is consistent with a team that will win 12 games across an 82 game season. So after 16 games, the Nets – given their efficiency differential – should have won 2.4 games. In sum, the team was truly awful, although not quite as awful as their winless record indicated.
To see if the problem was the coach we can consider how many wins the team would have had if its players maintained what they did last year. Here is each veteran player’s WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] in 2008-09 and after 16 games this season:
Brook Lopez: 575 minutes, 0.104 WP48 (last season), 0.060 WP48 (this season)
Rafer Alston: 534 minutes, 0.087 WP48 (last season), -0.049 WP48 (this season)
Chris Douglas-Roberts: 469 minutes, 0.002 WP48 (last season), 0.135 WP48 (this season)
Trenton Hassell: 435 minutes, 0.053 WP48 (last season), 0.049 WP48 (this season)
Josh Boone: 291 minutes, 0.091 WP48 (last season), 0.149 WP48 (this season)
Bobby Simmons: 257 minutes, 0.041 WP48 (last season), -0.106 WP48 (this season)
Courtney Lee: 251 minutes, 0.067 WP48 (last season), 0.014 WP48 (this season)
Devin Harris: 182 minutes, 0.154 WP48 (last season), 0.011 WP48 (this season)
Sean Williams: 155 minutes, -0.044 WP48 (last season), -0.085 WP48 (this season)
Eduardo Najera: 133 minutes, -0.038 WP48 (last season), 0.069 WP48 (this season)
Yi Jianlian: 119 minutes, 0.001 WP48 (last season), 0.070 WP48 (this season)
Okay, that’s a mess of numbers. We need to remember one more number. An average player posts a 0.100 WP48. When we look at last season’s numbers we see only two players – Brook Lopez and Devin Harris – were above average. And Lopez was only barely above average.
This season Harris has been hurt (and less productive) and Lopez has declined slightly. But Boone and Douglas-Roberts are now above average.
None of these players, though, is truly outstanding. Last season 259 players played at least 1,000 minutes. Of these, 67 posted WP48 marks beyond what Harris did in 2008-09. So the Nets have a collection of players who were below average last year. And even the “good” players weren’t very good.
Nevertheless (given the minutes each player has played this season) had these players maintained the WP48 marks seen last year the Nets would be predicted to win four of their first 16 games.
Let’s review.
The team’s record when Frank was fired was 0-16.
The team’s current efficiency differential predicts a record of 2-14.
And the team’s players – given what they did last year – should have posted a 4-12 record.
So will changing the coach make that much difference? Well, the Nets – even given their current levels of productivity – were not likely to go 0-82. That means the Nets are going to win a bit more than they were under Frank.
But I am not sure Frank is to blame for this team’s dreadful start. The players the Nets have assembled are simply not very good (by NBA standards). So the people who picked these players are the ones who are truly responsible for the Nets start. And changing the coach — even to Kiki Vandeweghe (one person responsible for this roster) — is not going to change that fact.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Italian Stallion
November 30, 2009
I don’t have a strong opinion about Frank as a coach, but it’s obvious the Nets are rebuilding and looking towards the draft and free agent market over the next couple of years.
They are actually not in such a bad position.
They have a few young pieces that could improve, will likely get a great draft pick in what’s expected to be a strong draft next year, and will also be well under the cap for next year. If they draft well and don’t overpay for free agents, this team will be very good in 2-3 years.
Ray
November 30, 2009
Does anybody read the Basketball Prospectus? It sounds fantastic. I’m the kind of person who wants to read about Keith Bogans’ defense. Fans?
Lior
November 30, 2009
The real (and hard) question is whether Frank had any effect: what part, if any, of the difference in production between last year and this year is explained by things Frank did.
Zach
December 1, 2009
Wayne Winston needs to start talking about sample size on HuffPo. This article was absurd: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/wayne-winston/the-numbers-say-dirk-for_b_365039.html
TBall
December 1, 2009
Hard to ask whether the coach is responsible if the basketball coach is generally not expected to influence player performance (deck chair comparisons come to mind). All you can really ask is, is the coach giving minutes to the players that contribute the most toward winning and is he able to keep his players from getting in bar fights at 3AM on the road.
Tommy_Grand
December 1, 2009
I don’t see anyone arguing that Frank did a great job this season.
Ray
December 1, 2009
Frank did a great job this season.
mrparker
December 1, 2009
I’m waiting on the Carmelo Anthony article. He’s at career highs in ts%, usg, and assists. Where is this coming from? Is he actually playing according to his size? With guys like Josh Smith and Carmelo elevating there games(maximizing talents, minimizing deficiencies) the league could be near an all time high in average efficiency if not for those stinkers that are being put together in Minnesota and New Jersey.
ilikeflowers
December 1, 2009
Nuggets EstWP48
Carmelo Anthony….0.28
Chauncey Billups…0.16
Nene Hilario…….0.31
Kenyon Martin……0.07
J.R. Smith………0.07
Ty Lawson……….0.2
Arron Afflalo……0.12
Chris Andersen…..0.27
Joey Graham……..0.03
Anthony Carter…..0
Anthony’s only 25 so he might improve some still over the next two years. I’m sorry to see Billups’ continuing decline, but Ty Lawson looks good for the future. Also good to see Afflalo’s improving.
Matt Walters
December 1, 2009
I second the motion to declare Winston’s article absurd. On the other hand, it does inspire me to create my own “model” wherein players are credited or penalized at random for other players’ performances, because apparently it’s easy enough to make a living offering vague ex post facto allusions to “the little things” to explain away any and all noise.
A.S.
December 1, 2009
As I commented on the lest Nets post, the Nets appear to have quite a few veteran players who are playing significantly worse this season as compared to last season – in particular Alston, Simmons, Harris have all played much, much worse this year (more than 0.1 WP48 worse this year than last).
Is this variation in play normal (especially for veterans)? My impression is that players are usually fairly consistent in WP48 from year-to-year. Perhaps this impression is wrong, or this is just a small sample size.
I can also well understand young players getting better (such as CDR and Yi), but less so young players getting worse (Lopez and Lee) – although the in those cases generally the effect is less than that for the veterans mentioned above.
I am interested in Prof. Berri’s thoughts on whether the decline in these players’ WP48 is abnormal.
Ray
December 1, 2009
What shooting percentage does WoW weigh the most? Adjusted, or True Shooting %?
Sam
December 2, 2009
Hey ilikeflowers, thanks for keeping us updated on the WP48 numbers, I love that stuff. I hope it’s not too much to ask to see the Raptor’s Wp48 numbers, I’m very curious to see them.
I wish there was a website that automatically updated WP48 for each player after each game.
Italian Stallion
December 2, 2009
Is the new book going to be available in time for Christmas or is it going to be my birthday present? :)
ilikeflowers
December 2, 2009
No prob Sam. From what I can tell most of them are pretty close (within about 15%) to the actual numbers that dberri posts, but occasionally I’ll notice one that’s way off
EstWP48
Chris Bosh………0.36
Andrea Bargnani….0.11
Hedo Turkoglu……0.1
Jose Calderon……0.13
Jarrett Jack…….0.05
Marco Belinelli….0.06
DeMar DeRozan……0.02
Amir Johnson…….0.31
Antoine Wright….-0.17
Rasho Nesterovic…0.36
Sonny Weems…….-0.09
ilikeflowers
December 2, 2009
Ray,
WOW just looks at possessions used (Shot Attempts and Free Throw Attempts) and points scored. I think that Points Per Shot is the same or similar (I’m not sure about how FTA’s are incorporated into PPS). ESPN has PPS as part of their ‘Per 48 Minutes’ stat collection.
Look at the ‘Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics’ at the end of the post for details.
dberri
December 2, 2009
PPS = (PTS-FTM)/FGA
This is the same as adjusted field goal percentage times two.
Free throws made also count in the evaluation of players.
Italian Stallion
December 2, 2009
When I think of “Points Per Shot” I am more inclined to include FTs in order to capture the value of drawing a lot of shooting fouls (which presumably will lead to more FTM and points)
I don’t see the purpose of of PPS in any other format when we already have eFG%/Adj FG% and TS% to give us information about shooting efficiency.
You could argue that PPS my way is not a very useful stat because it doesn’t consider the efficiency of the FT shooting, but I find it useful as a quick way to look at a night’s performance when I am too lazy to calculate the TS% for each player. Plus I think drawing a lot of fouls has it’s own value.
stephanie
December 2, 2009
This article seems a bit odd since I kinda thought it was an axiom around here that coaches don’t do jack except for a select few over all of NBA history. And IIRC PJ Carlesimo was the only one who made his players worse.
So if the Net’s ED said they should have won 10 games or something instead of 2 would that mean you would have said the coach is potentially responsible?
If a bunch of players on a team suddenly decrease in WP for no good reason from one year to the next would that be a sign that the coach is doing something wrong? Like the players gave up on him or the coach changed a system for the worse for example.