Carmelo Anthony got off to a very fast start this season. His performance across his first two games led Henry Abbott – of TrueHoop – to post the following: Carmelo Anthony’s trainer on his MVP-caliber client. Abbott’s interview with Melo’s trainer explained how Anthony’s game has changed and why he was the league’s MVP (in the view of his trainer).
The words MVP and Carmelo once again were heard when Melo scored 50 points – including two clinching free throws — against the New York Knicks towards the end of November. After this game, Chauncey Billups – the starting point guard on the Denver Nuggets – noted the following: “‘Melo is one of the best players in the world. If you’ve got him going like that, then you’ve got to ride him.”
Anthony entered the league in 2003. Across his first six seasons he has not exactly been part of the MVP conversations. Last season he received no votes for the award. And in 2007-08 he only received one 4th place vote – and this was his best career finish.
This season, though, seems different. Melo currently leads the NBA in scoring. And the Nuggets – as Table One reports – currently ranks 3rd in the NBA in efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency). In fact, Denver is one of only three teams (after Boston and the LA Lakers) who are on pace to win 60 games this season.
Table One: Efficiency Differentials after 25% of the 2009-10 Season
There are two factors that appear to dominate voting for the MVP award: Scoring and Team Wins. Since Melo leads in scoring – and he plays for one of the league’s top teams – he must be part of the conversation. Right?
Well, maybe not. For Melo to be MVP in 2009-10 he should – at the very least – be clearly better than LeBron James (the 2009 MVP). We know Carmelo is scoring more points. And as Table One reports, the Nuggets are doing better than the Cavaliers (a story for another day). So in terms of scoring and team wins, Anthony is the better player. But when we look at all the individual statistics – reported in Table Two – we see that King James is clearly doing more than Melo this season.
Table Two: Comparing LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony in 2009-10
The key differences can be seen with respect to shooting efficiency, rebounds, and assists. When we turn to Wins Produced and WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] we can see the size of the difference. As of the games played on December 8, LeBron has posted a 0.396 WP48 and is on pace to produce 25.4 wins. Meanwhile, Melo is posting a 0.188 WP48 – and if this performance continues – will produce 10.4 wins by the time the season ends. Yes, Anthony is above average. But when we look at everything it’s clear that King James is still King (at least in a kingdom of James and Anthony).
Okay, what if we shift our focus to the Nuggets? Denver currently is posting a 7.36 efficiency differential. If this mark continues it will be the best the Nuggets have ever done as an NBA team. So the Nuggets – who reached the conference finals last season – have clearly improved. But can we attribute this change to Melo?
For an answer we turn to Table Three (wow, three tables in one post).
Table Three: The Denver Nuggets in 2009-10 After 22 Games
Table Three reports what Denver’s players have done this season. It also reports what the Nuggets could have expected given what their players did in 2008-09. As one can see, Denver has improved by about seven wins. Most of this improvement can be tied to the play of Nene Hilario. Although Hilario is scoring less (due to declines in shot attempts and shooting efficiency), he has improved with respect to rebounds, steals, assists, turnovers, and personal fouls. And this means Hilario is on pace to produce about five more wins than his performance last year would suggest.
Not only is Hilario the most improved on this team, he is currently leading the Nuggets in Wins Produced. Second on the team – although just barely – is Chauncey Billups. And that means, Melo – the player some think is the best player in the league (and the player Billups thinks is one of the best in the world) – is currently only third on the Nuggets in Wins Produced.
So is Melo MVP? If we define this award in terms of scoring and team wins, Anthony has a case. But if we define this in terms of a player’s contribution to wins, Anthony isn’t even MVP on his own team.
Let me close by noting the play of Ty Lawson. Currently Lawson is posting a 0.189 WP48 and is on pace to 6.9 wins. Such production surpasses what we see from Jonny Flynn, Brandon Jennings (yes, Jennings had dropped off quite a bit), and Jrue Holiday (all point guards taken before Lawson). But all of this is also a story for another day.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Johnny Y.
December 9, 2009
How is Lawson vs Tyreke Evans shaping up?
Lior
December 10, 2009
I’d like to propose an easy improvement to early-season efficiency differential predictions — taking into account home court advantage.
Say home court advantage is P points / 100 possessions. Then a team with “average efficiency” E which played h home games and a away games would actually score about E + (h-a)*p/2 points per 100 possessions [I’m assuming here that home and away pace are about the same].
I seem to remember the home court advantage being 3.5 points/100 possessions. If so, then the efficiency of the Lakers is probably closer to 6.34.
Michael
December 10, 2009
How are the players on the Lakers doing? Kobe seems to be having one of his best seasons so far, does his wp48 support this?
kevin
December 10, 2009
I’m astonished Lawson is shooting so well from outside. He reallystruggled with that when he was with Carolina.
If his FG% and 3-point FG% is legit, he’s going to be a monster.
kevin
December 10, 2009
Speaking of Michael’s comment, Dave, why don’t you have a link for easy reference that contains the current WP40 and WP stats? It seems like a no-brainer.
dberri
December 10, 2009
Kevin,
You are free to set this up.
Westy
December 10, 2009
I’m definitely looking forward to the post on the rookie point guards. Certainly a strong class, and it will be interesting to see who rises to the top (in addition to Lawson). I think it could be argued the point position is the toughest to adapt to at the NBA level, and so any rookie who is already close to average or above impresses me.
kevin
December 10, 2009
OK, give me the keys.
dberri
December 10, 2009
Kevin,
Seriously… if you want to set up a website that calculate Wins Produced numbers as we go through the season, I would be glad to help. But I don’t know how to do that myself.
kevin
December 10, 2009
Neither do I but I’m willing to learn.
kevin
December 10, 2009
Email me your phone # and we can talk about it.
Confused
December 10, 2009
My quick calculations put melo after 22 games at .223 WS/min and thus as a SF .071 PAWSmin (the subtraction here is .152 there right?). Using that to estimate WP48 gets me .219 (PAWSmin * 1.621 + .104 though that formula’s obviously a bit strange as if the PAWSmin average 0 then WP will have an average of .104 not .100- but then again this formula’s probably just a best fit line for actual WP). Billups on the other hand gets .183 WS/min, .051 PAWSmin (-.132 for PG) and a final score .186 WP48. Am I doing something wrong? It doesn’t seem like Billups is second, nor does it seem a close difference between him and Melo.
Worth noting that while Melo is nowhere near MVP, he’s doing very well and has improved.
dberri
December 10, 2009
Confused,
Two points… the WP48 from PAWSmin is just an estimate. Perhaps more importantly… I think Melo is playing some time at power forward (which I think is also true for LeBron).
Andres
December 10, 2009
I propose a term for players like Melo: Canaries. Very similar to canaries in mines they look pretty and are indicative of the situation. Melo has gotten credit(I admit guilt in this) of turning the Nuggets around/getting them to finals. However, he came in right with Miller and Camby(real reason we turned around) and has had Billups, Birdman and healthy Nene recently.
Still happy the Nuggets are doing well, just wish we could have kept Camby AND gotten Billups and Birdman.
Confused
December 10, 2009
Thanks for the response, I realized it was an estimate- just the results seemed so very different I was wondering if there was something else going on, the PF thing really helps to explain that.
I’d be interested in seeing the top few people for MVP purely by WP48. I’d suspect paul, duncan, gasol would lead, but for players that have played more, james and howard (with kidd up there too). Maybe in a post about all star voting? But I’m happy to see whatever posts you put up, they’re always interesting and informative.
Italian Stallion
December 10, 2009
The thing that makes these conversations about MVP so frustrating to me is that there’s no standard definition for the term.
For some people, MVP is the “best player”, for others it’s the “most valuable player” (which can encompass things other than being the best player), for some being on a very good team is a requirement, etc…
Horse racing is going through a very similar heated debate about Horse of the Year between Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra.
Should it be the greatest performance in the biggest race of the year, the horse that “accomplished the most”, the best horse etc….
Until we define what we are voting for, it’s hard to discuss the matter.
To me, most valuable means “Most Valuable” not “best”. In many cases the best and most valuable will be the same person, but IMO not always.
For example:
IMO Steve Nash was never the best player in the NBA, but I also think he was OBVIOUSLY FAR AND AWAY the most valuable player for his team for a couple of years.
He was a terrific player based on stats, but on top of that the Suns were often absolutely horrible when he didn’t play. He was the life and soul of that Suns team. So even though many people disapproved of those MVP votes, I thought they got it right.
Otherwise, they should rename the award “Best Player of the Year” and give it to Lebron for the next 10 years.
khandor
December 11, 2009
When a bomb explodes what part of it is actually the most important?
A. The detonation device.
B. The explosive charge.
C. The timer.
D. All three.
E. None of the three [i.e. some other part]
F. Each part of the ENTIRE bomb is important.
Once you determine the correct answer to this question, then, you can decide for yourself into which specific roles you think C-Bills, Nene, Birdman, JR Smith, K-Mart, Melo, and the rest of Nuggets should be slotted.
Dan
December 11, 2009
Personally, I find the MVP conversation in standard NBA media pretty frustrating, and the conversation about Melo as MVP seems more like baiting and overreaction than a real debate . At the same time, Melo has traditionally been rated nothing more than mediocre through Win Score, and I would love to hear more about his improvement. Nene’s has obviously been huge (talk about a good story), but Melo’s seems pretty significant seven years into his career.
I’ve always been a big fan of his (as a Syracuse native) but also not unrealistic with regards to his contributions to his team’s success. This season, it seems like his biggest improvement has come in terms of eFG% by making shots close to the basket that he used to miss or have blocked. That, along with cutting down on TOs. Are those the main areas of improvement, or is there more to it?