There is one certainty in sports. For every athlete, a day will come when a player’s production declines. The decline doesn’t always happen in a consistent pattern (i.e. ups and downs are still possible at an advanced age). And significant drop-offs don’t happen at the same age for every player. All we know is that someday, every athlete stops helping.*
To illustrated, consider the WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] marks Kareem Abdul-Jabbar posted after the age of 30.
30: 0.394
31: 0.348
32: 0.340
33: 0.274
34: 0.206
35: 0.182
36: 0.143
37: 0.225
38: 0.145
39: 0.115
40: 0.045
41: -0.056
An average player posts a WP48 of 0.100. Kareem was three times the average player prior to 33 years of age. He was still twice the average player before age 35. At the age of 36 his WP48 numbers were still above average, but clearly Kareem was no longer outstanding.
But then at age 37, Kareem was suddenly twice the average again. This spike, though, was temporary. His performance at age 38 looked quite similar to what we saw at age 36. And at age 39 he was just barely above average. In his last season – at age 41 – Kareem’s performance dipped into the negative range. Yes, one of the greatest centers to play the game was suddenly reduced to Spencer Hawes (Hawes posted a -0.021 WP48 last season) once he passed 40 years of age.
Now let’s consider the WP48 numbers of Shaquille O’Neal after the age of 30.
30: 0.321
31: 0.287
32: 0.292
33: 0.220
34: 0.106
35: 0.116
36: 0.167
Like Kareem, Shaq entered his 30s as a player producing at a rate well beyond what we see from an average player. By his mid-30s, though, Shaq was no longer the same player. Yes, he was still above average. But the 20-something Shaq that dominated the NBA had vanished.
Although Shaq has clearly declined, the Cleveland Cavaliers still took a chance on acquiring his services. This chance was motivated by the age and health-status of Ben Wallace. Last season Big Ben posted a 0.159 WP48. But his health limited his availability in the regular season and his production in the playoffs.
So this past summer, Wallace was sent to the Phoenix Suns for Shaq. It was suspected that Big Ben would retire. But after being released by Phoenix, Big Ben signed with the Pistons and is now leading Detroit in Wins Produced.
Meanwhile, the Cavaliers decided to take a chance on Shaq. Yes, it’s likely that people in Cleveland knew that “someday” O’Neal would stop helping. But it was hoped that “someday” would happen after the 2009-10 season (and after a championship parade in Cleveland).
Unfortunately, there’s evidence that “someday” is happening in Cleveland.
Table One: The Cleveland Cavaliers after 22 games in 2009-10
Table One reports the Wins Produced of the Cleveland Cavaliers after 22 games. In addition, it reports what we could have expected from this team had player performance not changed from what we saw last season. With respect to most players, the assumption of constant performance doesn’t lead us too far astray. There are, though, two notable exceptions.
Before getting to Shaq, let’s talk about Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Last year, Ilgauskas posted a 0.093 WP48 [a mark very close to average]. This season – at the age of 34 – Ilgauskas is posting a -0.051 WP48. Yes, Ilgauskas is now a 41 year-old Kareem. Consequently, Ilgauskas is on pace to produce 5.5 fewer wins than what his performance last year would suggest.
For much of his career, Ilgauskas has been an above average (i.e. WP48 in excess of 0.100) but not outstanding performer (i.e. WP48 less than 0.200). As noted above, though, Shaq has often been amazing. And even as age has taken its toll, he has still maintained an above average WP48 mark.
At least, until the 2009-10 season began. Shaq’s WP48 mark this season has only been 0.017. So at the age of 37, Shaq is a bit worse than the 40-year old Kareem.
Again, the impact of age is not constant. So it’s possible Shaq – and Ilgauskas – will bounce back. But if they don’t, the Cavaliers are simply not going to be what I envisioned before the season started.
As Table One notes, had everyone maintained what we saw last year, the Cavs would currently be on pace to win 69.3 wins. Such a record would make the Cavs a clear contender to win a title (which is what I suggested before the season started). The declines we see with respect to Shaq and Ilgauskas, though, takes 10 wins off of the Cavs projected totals. And that clearly drops the Cavs behind the Celtics and Lakers.
Let me close with two observations. First – as Table Two suggests – the problems for O’Neal and Ilgauskas are primarily related to shooting efficiency. Most other numbers for these players haven’t changed from last year. But shooting efficiency from the field – and for Shaq, also from the line – has declined for both players. And consequently, overall productivity has declined considerably.
Table Two: Shaquille O’Neal and Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Secondly, some people might remember that I have already commented on the Cavaliers troubles. This first comment, though, came after just seven games (so the sample was even smaller than what we have today). And at that time, Shaq was playing better (although Ilgauskas was still very bad). Since that time, though, Shaq has missed time due to injury. Of course, injuries are part of the problem of age. But if Shaq can recover and start producing at the level we saw last year, Cleveland can get better. If not, a season of promise in Cleveland may end up a very big disappointment.
– DJ
* – we talk about age and performance in the NBA in more detail in our next book.
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Italian Stallion
December 10, 2009
I wonder how much of an impact leaving the Suns training and medical staff is having on Shaq?
Those guys are “supposed” to be great.
They turned Shaq around off what appeared to be the end of the road in Miami.
Grant Hill is healthier than he has been in years since going to the Suns.
Nash is still playing like a young man.
Michael
December 11, 2009
Sucks that Shaq had to get old. Especially the way a lot of people seem to have forgotten how dominant he was for the Lakers. The amount of times people have claimed that Kobe is the best player of this generation because of his ‘four titles’ is just ridiculous.
Shaq never seems to get his due, they forget that the league literally changed the rules to slow the guy down. I don’t think the league will be the same for me once Shaq retires.
Man of Steele
December 11, 2009
It seems that the Cavs could still be at the level you predicted if they played Varejao and Moon more and Hickson and Ilgauskas less. Both Varejao and Moon are playing quite well, but are getting insufficient minutes off the bench. Stashing Hickson and Ilgauskas would allow the Cavs to play about 10 minutes with a very productive small lineup with Varejao at C, LeBron at PF, and Moon at SF.
todd2
December 11, 2009
There’s still the possibility Leon Powe will be able to carry some of the load in late January/early February. Can’t help but think he was an insurance policy for their aging big guys.
khandor
December 11, 2009
1. As a dominant force in the NBA, Shaq was done prior to his championship season with the Miami Heat. It was Dwyane Wade who carried that team to the title that season, not Shaquille O’Neal, who … when push came to shove … was usually on the bench cheering on his “more effective” teammates in the 2nd halves of their playoff games when the Heat would separate from their opponents using a smaller line-up that was a superior defensive group, overall, compared with what could be produced by a combination with a Big Aristotle in rapid decline.
It’s the injuries which he’s sustained over the years that have robbed the Diesel of his lateral mobility and vertical explosiveness … which once made him a dominant force in the annals of the league.
Once this occurs to a player, there is no going back in time.
That said …
2. What is going on this season with the Cavaliers, however, is NOT tied to the “further” erosion of his skill-set.
3. JJ Hickson and Big Z are not a drain on the Cleveland’s overall productivity.
4. Unfortunately, the fault lies with [A] Danny Ferry, [B] Mike Brown, and [C] Delonte West, each of whom has not done his own job properly, to this point, in terms of mixing and matching the Cav’s personnel properly, [A] on the roster overall, [B] in their everyday rotation [including what systems and plays are being used to emphasize the strengths of specific players and minimize the weaknesses of others], and [C] dealing with the ramifications of his personal life circumstances.
There are productive players who the Cavs could have signed this off-season, but simply chose not to go in that direction; highly productive players on their current roster that have not yet been used properly; and, a series of plays/systems which could easily produce better results than what Cleveland has been able to generate, thus far.
The frustration you saw from Mike Brown, when he was kicked out of the game vs Houston, is reflective of the problems which the Cavs have at the moment … and, unfortunately, this is not going to change for Cleveland until they go in a different direction with their head coach position and make the decision to play Shaq LESS, Z and Hickson MORE, and eliminate West from their roster altogether.
psych432crossculturalblog
December 11, 2009
Hey Khandor you clearly follow basketball a lot and have a lot to say. That’s all well and good. But this is the wages of wins blog. A statistics based blog. You never really seem to comment on Prof Berri’s methods or really on specific statistics. You some times refer to your “acumen” or whatever it is. Which is kind of pointless because no one else really knows what that is. If it is an effective method and an interesting thing to look at maybe you should go into a little bit more on your own blog.
The comment above really had no specific statistics at all and was a huge wall of text, worthy of its own blog post. On a blog of which you already maintain. You said a lot, but you also asserted a lot. I think it would be more appropriate for you to make your own blog post and maybe expand a little bit on your theories there. I have no problem with what you said, I don’t agree or disagree. I’m just suggesting that you have a lot to say and that this blog is for commenting on Berri’s work, not an appropriate place to put your own blog post.
romalley
December 11, 2009
Sorry I was signed in under another name I was doing for a school assignment.
brgulker
December 11, 2009
khandor,
So age has absolutely nothing to do with Shaq’s declined productivity?
I mean, even if one thinks WoW is rubbish, one cannot deny the decline in Shaq’s FG% — the man is missing more shots, there’s got to be a reason, right?
khandor
December 11, 2009
brgulker,
That’s correct. IMO, “age” has nothing to do with the decline in Shaq’s productivity.
The series of injuries which he sustained during his final seasons with the Lakers, and then when he was with the Heat, as well, have robbed him of his greatest assets as an All-Time Great Center in the NBA.
Although the training staff for the Suns was able to re-activate some of his body parts … that had long since started to malfunction … it’s not possible to reverse that specific process fully once it’s set in with an athlete like the Big Aristotle … was at one time, i.e. The single greatest physical specimen yet to walk the earth on 2 feet with the ability to also play basketball, based on his unique combination of height, size, weight, explosive quickness, girth, and power.
As he has gradually lost more and more of his mobility [lateral and vertical], his production numbers have decreased. End of story.
PS. Can his physical limitations still be masked effectively by a crafty GM and Head Coach, who really knows what he’s doing, when it comes to putting a roster together and designing a team’s systems of play? You bet … because he is a still a weapon that is very difficult to counter, if used properly. Alas, that’s a different type of comment/blog post entirely … but, it seems to these eyes, as if neither Danny Ferry nor Mike Brown have that type of ability.
psych432 …,
IMO, proper contextual analysis is an important part of any thorough stats-based evaluation of effectiveness.
Italian Stallion
December 11, 2009
khandor,
Injuries can occur no matter how old you are, but there is clearly a correlation between age and the accumulation of injuries among athletes like basketball players. Shaq didn’t fall, take a really bad step etc… and cause an injury. He got old.
L. Ship
December 11, 2009
brgulker…
the declining FG% is pretty simple to figure out
khandor touched on it in that mini book above.
Shaq is being played out of position. If you look at shot charts for the games that he’s approached last year’s ppg, 90% of his shots were at the rim. In most of the games he’s been asked to play in the high post or at the elbow…completely unnatural sets for him…Unfortunately Dr. Berri’s calculations can’t take into account variables such as this. Put Shaq back in the low post exclusively and he gains 4-6 ppg
khandor
December 11, 2009
L. Ship,
Along the lines of proper usage with the Cavaliers, IMO, they would be far better off making the decision to employ:
* Lebron James, as their POINT GUARD
* Shaquille O’Neal, as their Center
* JJ Hickson, as their PF
* Anthony Parker, as their OG
* Jamario Moon, as their SF
————————————-
* One of Mo Williams, or Daniel Gibson, or Delonte West, as their back-up PG
* Danny Green, as their back-up OG-SF
* Anderson Varejao, as their back-up PF
* Zydrunas Ilgauskas, as their back-up C
in an everyday 9-man rotation.
IMO, used that way, the Cavs would become a legitimate contender to reach the NBA Finals this season.
russell
December 11, 2009
Maybe I misread and need to read it again, but I’m a little surprised that someone would write an article about Shaq’s decline in production and not discuss the fact that he has missed 7 of 23 games this season is trying to adjust to a new system.
Michael
December 12, 2009
You did misread it:
“Secondly, some people might remember that I have already commented on the Cavaliers troubles. This first comment, though, came after just seven games (so the sample was even smaller than what we have today). And at that time, Shaq was playing better (although Ilgauskas was still very bad). Since that time, though, Shaq has missed time due to injury. Of course, injuries are part of the problem of age. But if Shaq can recover and start producing at the level we saw last year, Cleveland can get better. “
Russell
December 12, 2009
Michael,
I see the problem, I had a typo.
I meant to write, “I’m a little surprised that someone would write an article about Shaq’s decline in production and not discuss the fact that he has missed 7 of 23 games this season and is trying to adjust to a new system.”
But instead, I left out an “and” between “season” and “is”. Again, I find it kind of surprising that this article doesn’t discuss how the change in his performance could be attributed to the fact that he has changed teams and systems. I think the fact that he has missed time due to injury at the beginning of the season (as opposed to playing with the team for a while and then getting hurt) exacerbates the problem.
The text you posted doesn’t address that.
Italian Stallion
December 13, 2009
Russell,
I don’t follow Cleveland closely enough to offer an opinion on the problem with Shaq’s production, but I think you are highlighting an issue with stats.
Stats tell you what happened, but they don’t always tell you why things happened.
Basketball is a game where players on the same team can impact each others’ performances because of the system, individual style, player chemistry etc..
There is a lot of the consistency among basketball players from season to season, but IMHO one of the reasons they are consistent is that coaches and GM’s generally do a decent job of identifying what their team needs and who will fit well. So they avoid those issues.
When it doesn’t work, the players are benched except in certain situations or shipped out. That hides the fact that sometimes players do not fit or take time to adjust to a new system.
Shaq was highly productive for the Suns, but they are a better team now.
Chicago Tim
December 13, 2009
Hi, Professor.
You predicted that the Miami Heat would win less than 40 games and struggle to make the playoffs unless one or more of the players surpassed his past performance level:
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/09/16/miami-fails-to-build-on-flash/
Hollinger now predicts that the Miami Heat will win 43 games and the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs:
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds
Granted, the Heat won’t contend for the championship, but at this rate the team might retain Wade and attract a major free agent to play by his side. Which of the players is responsible? Who is playing better than you expected?
todd2
December 13, 2009
Abdul-Jabbar was a fitness fanatic throughout his career. You could make the argument that Shaq has carried too much weight through his. He’s had back and leg problems since his time with the Lakers. He’s also never had a game away from the basket, which has negatively effected teammates who like to take it the rack. BTW, it’s going to be interesting watching Duncan over the next 2 or 3 years. He’s kept his weight down and taken less of a beating because of his face-up game.
Michael
December 13, 2009
Russell if you followed professor Berri’s work you would know that he has done studies which suggest that in the nba player performance is pretty consistant apart from the improvements and then declines players see with aging, or the effects of injuries. I suspect that the reason he doesnt address your point about ‘systems’ is because, like coaches, they are largely irrelevant to individual player performance.
todd2
December 13, 2009
I can’t agree with the comment about systems. Parker and Ginobili clearly benefit from the time Duncan spends in the high post. It doesn’t necessarily show up in box scores. Shot charts and fg% would probably be better indicators.
mrparker
December 13, 2009
Hypothetically,
Wouldn’t a great basket player who can’t shoot 15 ft from the basket not shoot the ball 15 feet from the basket? If Shaq is being played out of position shouldn’t he be smart enough to attempt a shot he can’t make?
Italian Stallion
December 13, 2009
I can’t agree either with the comment about systems being almost irrelevant either.
In fact, I think I addressed WHY it APPEARS like systems and player combinations don’t matter when you study the consistency of players from year to year.
To understand the concept, first think of the extremes.
If you put together a team of the 5 most productive Cs of all time would they win 60-70 games?
Obviously not.
Well the same things are going on at less extreme levels with teams that choose to run, play half court, play SSOL, play the Triangle etc…
The reason you don’t notice the impact is because the job of the GM and the coach is to not only find productive players, but to also find players that will fit the system and the needs of the individual team.
The better job they do, the more irrelevant things like “system”, player combos, player chemistry etc.. SEEM.
brgulker
December 14, 2009
@ khandor and L. Ship:
I don’t disagree that Coach Brown is mismanaging the Cavs. Heck, any coach who thinks you can play Z and Shaq together can’t see the forest from the trees.
But, I think this overstates it:
As he has gradually lost more and more of his mobility [lateral and vertical], his production numbers have decreased. End of story.
IMO, this is 100% right, but it needs qualifying. Injuries are not the only reason (nor are they the primary reason?) that Shaq has lost his mobility. As IS said, Age and Injuries are correlated. And as Dr. Berri demonstrated above, even the greatest Centers who have ever played the game become less productive as they age — because not only are age and injuries correlated, age and mobility are correlated.
todd2
December 15, 2009
Players take longer to physically recover as they age from the physical exertion and bumps and bruises that come with the game—using oxygen less efficiently and taking longer to heal. There can be a noticeable difference in the performance of players between November and March. Having said that, the Celtics have an aging lineup up but have been pretty good at distributing shots and minutes to date. If they can keep it up they should be in pretty good shape come March and April.
khandor
December 15, 2009
brgulker,
Shaq’s debilitating injuries began to set in long before he reached the customary expiration date for a player with his capacity for physical dominance.
yr-01, 92-93, 20, Orl, 81 G/98.8%
yr-02, 93-94, 21, Orl, 81 G/98.8%
yr-03, 94-95, 22, Orl, 79 G/96.3%
yr-04, 95-96, 23, Orl, 54 G/65.9% [1]
yr-05, 96-97, 24, Lal, 51 G/62.2% [2]
yr-07, 97-98, 25, Lal, 60 G/73.2% [3]
yr-08, 98-99, 26, Lal, 49 G/59.8% [4]
yr-09, 99-00, 27, Lal, 79 G/96.3%
yr-10, 00-01, 28, Lal, 74 G/90.2%
yr-11, 01-02, 29, Lal, 67 G/81.7%
yr-12, 02-03, 30, Lal, 67 G/81.7%
yr-13, 03-04, 31, Lal, 67 G/81.7%
yr-14, 04-05, 32, Mia, 73 G/89.0%
yr-15, 05-06, 33, Mia, 59 G/72.0% [5]
yr-16, 06-07, 34, Mia, 40 G/48.8% [6]
yr-17, 07-08, 35, Mia-Pho, 61 G/74.4% [7]
yr-18, 08-09, 36, Pho, 75 G/91.5%
As I said earlier, and as David’s figures can attest, Shaq’s lack of effectiveness can be traced directly to his numerous injuries over the course of his illustrious career, during which he has played in less than 75% of his team’s regular season games on 7 occasions, the first 4 of which occurred when he was just 23, 24, 25 and 26 years of age, and the last 3 of which have occurred in the last 4 seasons, following his trade to Miami at 33 years of age.
basketball analysis
December 21, 2009
all i can say is kobe is the best of all… thats period.