The Miami Heat began the season with a three game winning streak. After losing a game, the Heat won another three in a row. Since that 6-1 start, though, the team has only won six of seventeen games. After one of their latest losses – a 28 point defeat at the hands of the Memphis Grizzlies – the Heat began searching for answers. (HT True Hoop)
“I didn’t say a word. I let the guys talk. Sometimes, as a leader, you have to listen,” (Dwyane) Wade said of a postgame powwow led by veterans Jermaine O’Neal and Udonis Haslem. “I won’t say what any guy said. Just know that there was communication back and forth.”
Haslem insisted that there was no finger-pointing or animosity, although there was plenty of blame to share for the disappointing play at home. Instead, Haslem’s message was on all-inclusive accountability.
Sunday was for soul-searching.
“It’s not just about one person or two people,” Haslem said. “It’s on all of us. We definitely have to dig deep and find out what type of team we are.
“We need to get that chip back on our shoulder we had earlier.”
The words of Haslem suggest that if the Heat simply change their attitude, or try just a bit harder, the Heat will become a winning team. Furthermore, this is a team issue. Blame cannot be assigned to any one player or person. The numbers, though, seem to tell a different story.
Pointing at the Supporting Cast
Last year Miami was led by Dwyane Wade. Of the team’s 43 wins, about 22 were linked to the productivity of Wade. This means that without Wade, the Heat were not a very good team.
This year – as Table One illustrates – the Heat are once again led by Wade. And after Wade, Miami – once again — doesn’t have much. The Heat are currently on pace to win about 40 games this year (the team’s efficiency differential is -0.7).
Table One: The Miami Heat after 24 games in 2009-10
Of these 40 wins, about 26 of these projected wins can be linked to players not nicknamed Flash. About four of these wins can be linked to the play of Dorell Wright. Last year, Wright only played 73 minutes. So his production (which is quite similar per 48 minutes to what he did in 2007-08) is somewhat surprising. In fact, Wright and Wade are the only players to surpass the WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] mark of 0.200 (twice the average mark). And only Udonis Haslem and Quentin Richardson (of those who have played 100 minutes) surpass the average mark. Yes, much of this roster is below average.
One player who comes close to average – although still falls short – is Jermaine O’Neal. And like the play of Wright, this is also somewhat surprising. Last year O’Neal posted a -0.037 WP48. This year he’s still below average, but his ability to approach the average mark – something he hasn’t done since 2006-07 — is worth about four additional wins to the Heat across an entire season (or about six more wins than this team could have expected O’Neal to produce).
Without the play of Wright and O’Neal the Heat would not be as close to the 0.500 mark. So clearly one can point a finger at whoever assembled Wade’s supporting cast. But one can also point the finger of accusation at Wade.
Pointing at Flash
In 2008-09, Wade posted a WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] mark in excess of 0.300. This season, Wade’s WP48 is 0.207. In other words, last year Wade’s productivity went beyond what we see from Kobe Bryant [WP48 of 0.244 in 2008-09). This season, Wade’s production lags behind Kobe. And for the Heat to be a team that goes well beyond 41 wins (at least, more than one or two games beyond), Flash really has to do more than Kobe.
This year, though, that’s not happening. And the big reason why Flash has dimmed is Wade’s shooting efficiency. Last season Wade posted a 51.6% adjusted field goal percentage. This season this mark has fallen to 44.8%. If Wade could return to the level of efficiency seen last year – and the same happened with respect to assists (which are also a bit down) – the Heat would see the team’s projected wins rise by about nine.
One should note, though, that even if Wade returned to form – and Wright and O’Neal kept doing what we have seen thus far –the Heat would probably fall short of 50 victories. And that mark is not quite what Miami envisioned when it started 6-1.
The problem for Miami is that this start was a bit of an illusion. As Dean Oliver noted in Basketball on Paper, there is a 90% chance that a team that ultimately wins 30% of its games – or about 25 games – will win three in a row at some point in an NBA season. So when the Heat – a team that will probably win 50% of its games – started with a three game winning streak (and followed it with another three game winning streak after a loss); the expectations for the Heat shouldn’t have changed immediately. At least, we shouldn’t be surprised that Miami has fallen short of the promise of these early streaks.
Pointing All the Fingers
At the end of the day, Miami doesn’t have much beyond Wade. So a finger of blame needs to be pointed at the person (or persons) who assembled this roster. And as noted, a second finger can be pointed at Wade himself. The Heat would not be one of the top teams in the league if Wade reverted to form. But they could be a bigger threat to surpass the mark of an average team and perhaps come closer to 50 wins.
Unfortunately for Miami, “approaching 50 wins” is probably the ceiling for this team; and struggling to stay above .500 is closer to reality. One suspects that this will not be enough for Miami to keep Wade when the season ends. And if Wade does depart, we can expect the finger of blame to be frequently pointed next summer in Miami.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Fred
December 17, 2009
Professor Berri, I’d really enjoy seeing a piece on Trevor Ariza. His shooting efficiency is down but his attempts are way up. Is he still an efficient player when he’s asked to take 17 shots instead of 7?
Lior
December 17, 2009
Does the prediction take into account the games already played? That is, did you take the 24 games as given and predict the results of the remaining 58 from the efficiency differential of -0.7, or is the 40-game figure the prediction for a team playing 82 games at a -0.7 differential?
todd2
December 17, 2009
Wade is playing like he’s more concerned about a new contract than winning games. He’s forcing a lot of bad shots and not looking for teammates. Someone on ESPN felt the Heat should trade him now rather than lose him over the summer and get nothing in return. Probably a good idea.
Man of Steele
December 17, 2009
I’ll second the request for a piece on Ariza
Tball
December 17, 2009
Merry Christmas Miami.
The trick for Miami, the reason not to trade him, is the belief that they can bring in a Bosh or a Joe Johnson or someone of that ilk and put him alongside Wade. I don’t know what their cap space situation is, but I thought they had some reason to believe they could sign a big name free agent and retain Wade.
Cleveland has to count on the returns from this season to retain James, but I don’t think Miami is in that same boat with Wade.
khandor
December 17, 2009
David,
re: “One should note, though, that even if Wade returned to form – and Wright and O’Neal kept doing what we have seen thus far –the Heat would probably fall short of 50 victories. And that mark is not quite what Miami envisioned when it started 6-1.”
What would make you think that this year’s Miami Heat team … which only won 45 games last season … had designs on amassing 50 wins in 2009-2010?
IMO, this year’s Heat team had no such intention.
Much like the Atlanta Hawks … whose incremental goal you also seemed to mis-read this past summer … the primary goal of this year’s version of the Heat was to solidify their core group of players … working effectively around their lone superstar … in a gradual effort to get only marginally better [i.e. 44-47 W’s?], while at least maintaining their current place in the EC standings [i.e. the 5th seed], through the internal maturation of those youngsters on their current roster … and, biding their time, astutely, in arrears of the NOVA otherwise known as the KG-PP-RA-led Boston Celtics, when operating at full throttle.
Then, in Miami’s case, during the coming summer, when they will have the cap room to add a meaningful UFA to their team, and fresh on the heels of a season in which Flash basically took a well-deserved breather … from continually over-extending his own gargantuan reach … to begin anew Pat Riley’s next assault on the rest of the league, in earnest, with a multi-pronged version of the Heat, driven by Flash, Beasley and Player X.
IMO, the pointing of fingers at D-Wade, this particular season, in fact, completely misses “the point” of this season, for the team in South Beach.
khandor
December 17, 2009
Two things have now worked to define who exactly Trevor Ariza is, at the moment.
#1. His decision to forego an opportunity to capture multiple NBA championships as an integral part of the LA Lakers, running beside Kobe, Pau, Lamar and Drew for [perhaps?] the next decade.
#2. The blatantly cheap shot elbow he threw … i.e. in a wayward attempt to separate DeMar Derozan’s head from the rest of his body … in a moment of absolute frustration, against the Raptors on Sunday, in the midst of his 0-9 performance.
Despite the meaningful promise he showed lst season, working under Phil Jackson & Co., I would now contend that we have already seen both ‘the best’ [i.e. 2008-2009] and ‘the worst’ [i.e. his actions this past Sunday] of T-Ariza, in the NBA.
Character of that sort will not stand the test of time, as a main-frame player who is capable of leading his team to an eventual championship in this league.
brgulker
December 17, 2009
Miami has enough money to give D Wade a new max contract AND offer another max contract: http://nbaroundtable.wordpress.com/2009/11/27/2010-cap-space-miami/
#1. His decision to forego an opportunity to capture multiple NBA championships as an integral part of the LA Lakers, running beside Kobe, Pau, Lamar and Drew for [perhaps?] the next decade.
I highly doubt that any of us here would have passed at the chance to go play for a team like Houston (with a healthy Yao, they’re a contender) in a larger role for more money rather than stay in LA and “play for championships.” As if championships were some moral good to aspire to.
Character of that sort will not stand the test of time, as a main-frame player who is capable of leading his team to an eventual championship in this league.
Honestly, you’re making a character judgment on the guy because he took a chance at a career opportunity? So he got frustrated on the basketball court — I’m not going to justify it because I didn’t see it. But let’s be real. Anyone who’s ever played basketball has gotten mad and done something stupid. We’d all be damned if you were the judge, apparently.
Ariza was given a chance to be a key feature of a perennial playoff team, all while making more money than he would have in LA.
My thoughts on Ariza:
When Yao returns, Trevor will not have to take as many shots, and his shots will be easier to get given the defensive adjustments teams will have to make to account for Yao. Ariza is a complementary player; because of injuries, he’s been asked to shoulder an offensive load that he’s not equipped to carry. He may never produce on a per minute basis like he did with LA, but even so, when Houston is healthy, I fully expect his offensive efficiency to go up (and hence his overall productivity).
That may take 1-2 years, but it’s far too early to write the kid off just yet. Yes, he’s performing worse this year than last year, but it’s literally his first opportunity to be anything more than low-usage role player. Let him learn for a while.
mrparker
December 17, 2009
Expecting Ariza to come close to his .2+ wp48 of last year would show a lack of understanding of how that number is arrived at. A considerable portion of it comes from a team adjustment. With the Lakers being a better team than Houston, the team adjustment will not be as good for Ariza. Also, there are other players who around the league with atrocious off efficiency stats right now who haven’t been asked to carry a higher workload(Caron Butler from the top of my head) so using Ariza as an example of the higher usage lower fg% argument could be a case of barking up the wrong tree
khandor
December 17, 2009
brgulker,
1. If I was in Trevor Ariza shoes, I would have chosen to stay with the Lakers.
What choice would you have made?
2. IMO, making an assumption that Yao Ming is ever going to be healthy enough to play the game again at a high level, is an example of faulty judgment on Ariza’s part, if that is indeed part of what factored into his decision to reject the Lakers’ contract offer and sign with the Rockets … which, to this point, I have neither seen nor heard was, in fact, part of his reasoning.
3. Getting frustrated on a basketball court is one thing. Lashing out, at your opponent with the force that Trevor behind that swing of his elbow, on Sunday … without thought towards the possible consequences for himself, and DeRozan, of actually connecting … apparently without any external provocation, is another thing altogether.
Until such time that I see Trevor Ariza respond to such circumstances in a different way, and therefore choose to conduct himself in a different way, under the strain of such a situation, I will stand by my original observation above, regarding the suitability of his character, as a main-frame player on another NBA championship-winning team.
Hopefully, he is able to prove me wrong.
khandor
December 17, 2009
brgulker,
In addition, please be careful not to misinterpret my use of the word “character”, in the comment above, as I did not use the word “morals” in what I had to say originally concerning Trevor Ariza.
brgulker
December 17, 2009
1. If I was in Trevor Ariza shoes, I would have chosen to stay with the Lakers.
What choice would you have made?
That’s just the thing — I don’t know. I’ve never had either of those two options available to me.
But, something analagous: In High School, I was a decent ball player. I was recruited by a handful of small, local colleges. Most of them were NCAA D. III, meaning they couldn’t offer athletic scholarships. I was recruited by one NAIA school, which could offer me a partial athletic scholarship.
I chose the latter.
The money wasn’t the only factor, of course, but it was a very important one.
To make my decision even more similar, the school I chose did not have as strong a history of winning as the school that I did not choose.
In addition, please be careful not to misinterpret my use of the word “character”, in the comment above, as I did not use the word “morals” in what I had to say originally concerning Trevor Ariza.
Well, I’m certainly not trying to put words in your mouth; I’m not that kind of guy. I understand character and morals to be inseperably intertwined, as in, a person of character is someone who makes a habit of making sound moral choices.
Your words read:
As I read you, you have arrived at a judgment as to Trevor’s character based on two events. 1) Leaving the Lakers for Houston and 2) The elbow.
I didn’t see the latter, so I can’t have an opinion on that specifically. I offered a word of caution based on my experience — we’ve all done stupid things on the basketball court.
But the substance of my objection is about your arguments to the former — I don’t think leaving the Lakers is a negative indicator of Trevor’s “character,” regardless of how that’s defined.
A winning franchise offered Trevor a larger contract and a larger role than the Lakers were offering.
My reading of your comments could be summed as “Trevor took money over the chance to win.” And while I would agree that he had the chance to win more championships in LA than in Houston, I reject the notion that his decision could be reduced to only that.
I think a better reading of Trevor’s decision is simply that he’s a competitor (and thus desired a larger role, not selfishly, but out of competitive instinct) who jumped at the chance to expand his career, both monetarily and in terms of playing time and role.
In other words, I think you’re making a non sequitur. It does not follow from Trevor’s decision to leave the Lakers that he is not made of the character necessary to compete in the NBA.
Ray
December 17, 2009
First off, this was a terrific post. I dunno why, but it was just a very nice read.
Secondly, I thought Ariza took the same amount of money from Houston as he did from LA’s offer. I do know that he and Artest have the same contract, so LA had the money for him. I think Ariza walked away because LA didn’t initially try to sign him. That rubbed him the wrong way, so he went elsewhere. Like I said, I don’t think HOU gave him anymore than LA would have.
khandor
December 17, 2009
brgulker,
I wasn’t trying to suggest that you were attempting to put words into my mouth. I was only cautioning against interpreting my words in a way that wasn’t conveyed in the context which I used them.
In an effort to clarify this further …
I wasn’t speaking about Trevor’s “charactacter” in a morals/moralistic sense but only insofar as what specific attributes are necessary for a player to have, if he’s going to be one of the few main-frame players on a championship winning NBA team.
i.e. IMO, there are a range of character attributes that those types of players need to have in order to accomplish this specific goal, some of which might be perceived by the general populace as being laudatory, and others which might be perceived as being rather reprehensible.
e.g. Without Dennis Rodman, IMO, the Bulls do not go 72-10. Without Bill Russell, the great Celtics teams do not win 11 NBA championships. Without Isiah Thomas the Detroit Pistons do not win their back-2-back NBA titles. IMO, however, each of these men had/have the character it takes to be a main-frame player on a championship-winning NBA team, despite being quite dissimilar to one another from a “morals” perspective. What was paramount to them, wasn’t the amount of money they could make by playing basketball … or, the amount of playing time they received from their coach, or, the size of their individual role within the group, etc. What was fundamentally most important to them, when they stepped between the four lines to compete on a basketball court, was whether or not their team was going to leave with the championship trophy in their possession, at the end of the day.
The type of character I am speaking about here is the “character” associated with doing what’s necessary in order to win it all, at the professional level.
In that context, I will stand by what I wrote originally, concerning the character of Trevor Ariza … who does not prioritize having a legitimate chance to win it all in the same way that other main-frame competitors in the NBA seem to on an annual basis.
As I said, hopefully, he will prove me wrong, in the years to come.
Michael
December 17, 2009
If Wade is less productive than Kobe then what’s Kobe’s WP48?
Italian Stallion
December 17, 2009
mrparker,
I can’t believe anyone thinks that asking Ariza to shoulder a much bigger part of the offense while simultaneously losing the small advantage of a couple of wide open looks per game because of Kobe double teams has not had a impact on his efficiency.
I’m not an extremist on this issue. My view is that usage is fairly flexible without much change in efficiency. Obviously, as skill improves usage can also rise without a negative impact.
But it seems that common sense should rule when it comes to large shifts in usage. That is especially true with a guy like Ariza who has historically not been a very good outside shooter. If he permanently improved his outside shot, sure he could expand. By how many slashes and dunks is he going to get?
If a statistical study suggests otherwise, it must be be missing something
IMO anyone that has ever played any basketball at all knows that your own skill set limits the # of points you can score while retaining the desired efficiency.
Italian Stallion
December 17, 2009
I haven’t looked at any of Wade’s detailed shooting stats.
Historically I believe he has done a lot of his scoring driving to the basket. That’s one of the things that made him so efficient. However, I’ve long been reading articles about how that kind of thing would eventually catch up with him because his body takes a beating.
Perhaps his scoring efficiency is down because he’s beginning to adjust his style to enhance the longevity of his career?????
Anyone?
Ray
December 17, 2009
Italian Stallion, these stats aren’t up the minute, but they should be at most a week behind. Last year Wade took jumpers 66% of the time where he had an eFG of 44%. This year he’s shooting 65% of the time, on 36% eFG. And he’s going to the line 1 more time a game. So Wade is playing pretty much the same way. The shot just isn’t falling. Maybe it’s random, wear and tear, who knows, but there you go.
Man of Steele
December 18, 2009
Well, I don’t know about Kobe making everybody else wide open, but it is possible for shooting efficiency to change when players make radical role changes. I haven’t done the research on this, but my ideas are as follows: if the Pareto principle is as consistent across the board in basketball as it seems to be, then 3 of a team’s players would score the majority of the teams points (or take the majority of the team’s shots, more accurately). The other players are complimentary scorers (I would also guess that this is true for rebounds, assists, etc.). If a player goes from being a complimentary scorer to a #1 scorer in one season, it is possible for the player’s efficiency to change. This is an extreme situation, and rarely happens, as far as I can tell. The reverse of this situation would be the year where Wilt Chamberlain became a complimentary scorer, taking like 6 shots per game, and shot 72%. This is not the same as saying, “Kobe could shoot (whatever)% if he only took 5 shots a game” or “Rajon Rondo wouldn’t shoot nearly as well if he didn’t have so many open looks.” A player is who he is. What makes a player good is how well or how poorly he fills that role. The ability to take a lot of shots at a high level of efficiency is what makes Kobe or Brandon Roy or Dwayne Wade very good players. Shooting less would actually hurt them (as in Dr. Berri’s article on Devin Harris).
One last note: this sort of shift could probably still be possible if the player is eased into it. Ariza went from being a complimentary scorer to #1 scorer in one season. If he had become #2 or #3 scorer and then become the #1 scorer in another season or two, it might be a smoother transition.
brgulker
December 18, 2009
khandor, thanks for the clarification. That makes a lot more sense.
Italian Stallion
December 18, 2009
Man if Steele,
I don’t disagree with anything you said.
Thanks.
Kevin G
December 20, 2009
Nash destroyed Arenas last night and the Wizards got crushed by Phoenix. I think it’s time Flip Saunders concedes his mistake of trying to make a point guard out of Arenas. he can’t handle the position, neither offensively nor defensively.
khandor
December 20, 2009
If you have a player like Gilbert Arenas and use him in an offensive system like the one which Flip Saunders is trying to implement this season with the Wizards, its a basic error in basketball judgment to “think” that he is going to respond in a similar way to how he performed while working under the offensive system that Eddie Jordan used in Washington.
Arenas was terrific on Friday night, in the victory over Golden State … because the Warriors are an easy individual match-up for him to abuse.
Conversely, Gilbert really struggled last night against Phoenix … because he wasn’t in an easier physical match-up to begin with, was playing in a back-2-back situation, against a rested opponent that had lost their previous game on the road, and that matched-up very well against the Wizards at the other 4 positions on the floor, as well:
PG – Arenas vs Nash
SG – Stevenson/Young vs Richardson
SF – Butler vs Hill
PF – Jamison vs Frye
C – Haywood vs Stoudemire
Fundamentally, basketball is predicated on the strength or weaknesses of individual match-ups.
Statistical-based evaluations which fail to account for this reality usually fall short of being able to provide a comprehensive analysis/understanding of what actually happened in a specific NBA game.