With 30% of the regular season complete, the Boston Celtics lead the Eastern Conference with a 10.3 efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency). And the LA Lakers lead the Western Conference with an 8.3 mark. Although it’s still early, such numbers suggest that for the 12th time in NBA history the Celtics and Lakers will meet in the NBA Finals.
Again, it’s early. But if these numbers hold up people will be asking the following until next summer: Who is better, Boston or LA?
The Celtic Argument
Let’s start with a look at the Boston Celtics after 24 games. Table One reports each player’s Wins Produced and WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] this season, as well as what Boston could have expected given what these players did last season. As one can see, given what these players did last season Boston should be on pace to win 72 games this year. After 24 games, though, the pace is only 66.4 victories.
Table One: The Boston Celtics after 24 games in 2009-10
When we look at the performance of the individual players we see that Rasheed Wallace, Ray Allen, and Eddie House have declined the most. What do these players have in common? All three are on the wrong side of 30 years of age. And that illustrates the problem facing the Celtics. Six of the Celtics are more than 30 years of age and these players have played 60% of the team’s minutes. And of these six, only Paul Pierce is offering more this season (relative to last season).
Although basketball players may like to think they age like fine wine, the general pattern is that players age like milk. So as the season progresses, the Celtics might slip some more. At this point in time, though, the Celtics are a very good team. And this is because of the performance of Rajon Rondo, Kevin Garnett, Pierce, Kendrick Perkins, Ray Allen, and Shelden Williams. These six players are on pace to produce nearly 68 wins this year.
There are two surprises on this list. First, Shelden Williams has been very productive and should (but may not) make fans of the Celtics forget about Glenn Davis. The other surprise is Rasheed Wallace, who is really not offering much at all. Once again, given his age this shouldn’t be a surprise.
The Lakers Argument
Okay, the Celtics are good, but not quite as good as their past numbers suggest. The story of the Lakers is the opposite.
Table Two: The LA Lakers after 24 games in 2009-10
As Table Two illustrates, what the Lakers did last season suggests that this team should only be on pace to win 52 games this year. When we look at production this season, though, the Lakers are on pace to win 63 games.
Both of these numbers are deflated because of the early season injury to Pau Gasol. In projecting wins I am taking the easy way out. Projections are simply what has happened across 24 games multiplied by 82/24. So for Gasol, his projected minutes are only 1,596 (which essentially assumes Gasol will keep missing eleven out of each 24 game segment). Currently, though, Gasol is averaging 36 minutes per game. At this pace, Gasol will play about 2,550 minutes this season. Given what he did last season [WP48 of 0.256], projections based on last year’s number would increase by 5.5 wins (so the Lakers should have expected about 57 wins).
After 13 games, though, Gasol has posted a 0.465 WP48. Such a mark bests – by a wide margin – anything Gasol has done in his career. And it also tops anything anyone did last season. If Gasol can keep this up, the Lakers can expect to win about 72 games this season.
But can Gasol maintain this pace? Again, he has never produced at this level before. When we look at the individual numbers we see that Gasol is posting career highs with respect to free throw percentage and rebounds. As noted in the past, rebounding tends to be very consistent across time. So one wonders if Gasol will keep grabbing 16.9 rebounds per 48 minutes (his previous high was 13.1 in 2006-07).
If this happens, Gasol and the Lakers will probably finish with a better record than the Celtics. And the subsequent home-court advantage – assuming the playoffs hold to form – will give the Lakers an advantage in the NBA Finals.
Then Again…
But if Gasol slips, then the Celtics will have the advantage. Then again, if the aged Celtics keep aging, maybe the Lakers will be better. Of course, Kobe is both aged and hurt. So maybe Boston will still finish with the best record.
Okay, here is what we know. Right now, the season numbers favor the Celtics. But there is evidence that the Lakers are better right now and could finish with better season numbers.
And all of this ignores the other teams in the NBA. I still believe it’s possible that the Cleveland Cavaliers can come back (although I recognize the distinct possibility that won’t happen). And the Atlanta Hawks and Josh Smith continue to be amazing (9.0 efficiency differential).
In sum, it’s still early (have I said this?). But if you are looking at the Celtics and Lakers, we can clearly see that the Celtics are better. Or is it the Lakers? Or… how ‘bout that Pau Gasol?
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
TRad
December 18, 2009
“In basketball there is no ignorabimus. We must know. We will know.” How much better it sounds in original: “Wir müssen wissen. Wir werden wissen” :)
V. Money
December 18, 2009
Don’t forget Andrew Bynum, if he can stay healthy.
Zach
December 18, 2009
Worth noting, there is also a pretty decent possibility that Doc will assign Shelden Williams’ minutes to Big Baby Davis will Davis returns from his (self-inflicted) injury. That would pretty significantly hurt the Celtics’ effectiveness.
Oddly enough, the Boston bloggers (@CelticsHub and @CelticsBlog) haven’t noticed that Williams is a lot better than Davis, even though his eFG% on jumpers (their assessment tool of choice) is quite a bit higher than Davis’ was last year (.421 to .369).
Go Green! -Zach
123
December 18, 2009
please realize that pure point differential is pretty useless if you’re not adjusting for home/away games
Michael
December 18, 2009
I’m suprised Kobe is basically the same as last year, I thought he was looking better. Gasol does look impressive but I doubt he can remain over 0.4…remember Ariza was over 0.4 at one point last year, so I guess it happens for stretches. Nice post, the milk line was classic.
brgulker
December 18, 2009
I like the milk line as well … but refine milk the right way, and you get delicacy cheese ;)
kevin
December 18, 2009
Yeah, 123 mentions the advantageous early schedule of the lakers. I think they’ll deflate a bit at the road games begin to equalize.
dberri
December 18, 2009
Jeff Dunham — the ventriloquist — provided the line about aging like milk. At least, I think that is where I heard it.
Kevin G
December 19, 2009
Well, the Celtics blew a 15 point lead at home last night. Rivers had this inexplicable lineup in the game in the fourth quarter, in a close game, mind you:
House
R. Allen
T. Allen
Scalabrine
Williams
Now granted, Rasheed Wallace was tossed in the second quarter but still… what in heck was he trying to prove there, that if the starters didn’t play harder, he was going to lose the game for them?
todd2
December 19, 2009
Boston’s big three all played poorly last nite. Maybe Doc was trying to wake them up.
Mark
December 19, 2009
Dr. Berri, what do you think of what Agent Zero says here about how Wizards would be much better if he shot the ball more? http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=mc-afterthebuzzer121809&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
Kevin G
December 19, 2009
if he wants to shoot more, he can start by making his free throws. Two games in a row, Arenas lost games at the foul line that he could have put away. One game was a staggering home loss to the Pacers, one of th3 worst blown wins I have ever seen.
The Wizards were up 6 with less than 1:15 left. Hansbrough scored to draw within 4. Then the Wizards turned it over on a 24 second violation. They traded hoops and with 13.5 seconds left, Hansbrough was fouled, made the first and missed the second on purpose. The ball went out of bounds off the Wizards. On the ensuing play, Dunleavy was fouled and made both to draw within 1. Arenas was then fouled with 6.6 seconds left and could have avoided a loss by making the freebies but missed both. TJ Ford got the rebound and drove the length of the floor and was fouled with 1/2 second on the clock. He drained both and put the game away.
This followed a game against the Celtics when Arenas again missed both free throws with 26.7 seconds left in a game the3 Wizards were down 2. They ended up losing by 2.
I’m wondering if the Zero in Agent Zero stands for his free throw percentage in the last two minutes of close games.
Kevin G
December 19, 2009
Check that. Dunleavy made the last 2 free throws, not Ford. Whatever. Brutal loss.
kerem
December 20, 2009
sleepin on the magic…
erik
December 21, 2009
the celtics are aging quickly and their bench has questionable spots. the lakers are younger but their bench can’t keep leads.
mrparker
December 21, 2009
I need a place to vent.
I’ve been reading articles on the diminishing returns of rebounds and how this methodology overrates rebounds and I can’t believe this many smart people can’t see the forest for the trees(or however that saying goes).
Tangent….
I’m a bartender and I’ve been trying to explain how Wow rates players. I’ve recently taken to the roommate corollary. A basketball team can be compared to 5 people renting a house together. The higher a guys wp48 is the more awesome a roommate he would make.
.1wp48 always pays the rent on time doesn’t
clean up after himself
.2wp48 pays rent on time cleans up after himself
.3wp48 pays rent on time and always
cleans up after himself and some
times cleans up after others
.4wp48 pays everyone elses rent and bills on
time and cleans up after everyone else
the bench guys are summer sub letters.
Obviously, someone who always cleans up after others won’t have anyone else to take care of if everyone else takes care of themselves. That would be an awesome roommate situation. Except, those in the diminishing returns camp want us to believe that in this situation the landlord would end up looking for new leasees.
That is a crock.
dberri, I’m glad your research has been so fruitful. I’m doubly glad that this whole thing hasn’t become the moneyball of basketball. Baseball has been become a little boring with everyone trying to outsmart each other when they all have the same idea which devalues the whole idea of outsmarting the competition. If anything I’ve written makes sense.
Mo
December 21, 2009
Even though the Lakers have had more home games, their SoS is significantly higher. According to Hollinger, the Lakers’ opponents are .489 and the Celtics’ opponents are .432. The 0.057 difference more than makes up for the 4 home game difference.
Also, is efficiency differential the right measurement? When the Lakers are up 20 in the 4th, they put in their garbage* unit of Vujabric, Powell, Mbenga, Morrison and Farmar/Brown. So 20 point leads get whittled down to 10 or so. That unit is worse than the Celtics’ garbage unit, but neither is really germane to the conversation of which team is better. Only a couple of those guys would be in a playoff rotation and none of them would top 10 minutes in a non-blowout playoff game. Excluding garbage time for both teams would probably make the differential numbers more meaningful.
* Note, this describes the time they play and the quality of their play.
mrparker
December 21, 2009
boston’s avg starter approx .23
lakers avg starter approx .22
Wouldn’t that make them about equal as far as starters go with Boston having the much superior bench which coincidentally will probably prove to be useful when a player inevitably gets hurt
Mo
December 21, 2009
But the much superior bench doesn’t matter beyond the top 3 bench players. Odom is a starter level talent and would step in in case of injury to one of the bigs. Wheras replacing one of the C’s bigs for Sheed makes the team markedly worse*. Teams generally use 8 man rotations throughout the playoffs. That means Walton, who should be healthy by then, Farmar/Brown, better than Fisher in WP48, and Odom will be the vast majority of the Lakers’ bench in the playoffs. Those 3 are better than Williams, Daniels and Sheed. The merits of Tony Allen and Eddie House over Morrison and Vujacic are interesting to talk about now, but they’ll be largely academic come playoff time.
* Not to mention, the Celtics’ key players, minus Rondo, are all on the wrong side of 30 and are more likely to get injured.
mrparker
December 21, 2009
I counted Odom as a starter. My definition of starter was 5 most productive guys. If you sub fisher for Odom then Lakers starting 5 production goes down to .19approx. I did the math quick in my head it could be up or down a tick or so.
Shahe
December 21, 2009
Don’t forget that Bynum was a 20/10 player while Pau was gone, but he has melted away like a candle since Pau has returned. Same goes for Lamar Odom.
Since returning to the bench, he hasn’t done much.
Perhaps its better to measure both teams since Pau returned.
P-Dawg
December 22, 2009
I been waiting for this post all season. Couple things:
As has been said, a bunch of Shelden Williams’ minutes will likely go to Big Baby when he returns. Which brings me to an important question: would Davis’ PAWS be significantly better if he played a different position–say, small forward?
Rasheed Wallace was a disaster waiting to happen. This is the schizophrenic nature of Danny Ainge. There’s good Danny. He’s the guy who values rebounding, high shooting percentages and low turn overs. Then there’s Danny’s evil twin. That’s the former shooting guard who salivates when he sees seven footers shoot three pointers because it will “open up the middle.”
That said, it’s unlikely that Wallace will continue to be this bad, in the same way that it’s unlikely Gasol will continue to be this good.
So, to me, the future looks like this: If the Celts stay healthy, minimize Davis’ minutes, Williams continues to play well and Wallace reverts to something like his mean, Boston has a good shot at the best record and another banner. But it would help if they could add some more rebounding at the trade deadline!
kevin
December 22, 2009
“Rasheed Wallace was a disaster waiting to happen. This is the schizophrenic nature of Danny Ainge. There’s good Danny. He’s the guy who values rebounding, high shooting percentages and low turn overs. Then there’s Danny’s evil twin. That’s the former shooting guard who salivates when he sees seven footers shoot three pointers because it will “open up the middle.”
If case you’ve missed it, Wallace has been spotting up more. And you talk as if opening up the middle is a bad thing. What, you object to Perkins leading the league in FG%?
Wallace is a good player. He just can’t carry too many minutes and has to be deployed carefully.
P-Dawg
December 23, 2009
As if on cue, Wallace racked up 13 boards, 3 steals and a block last night on no turnovers. He was 3-8 from the field, but 2-4 from inside the arc. Wallace is shooting under 30% from 3-point land. So, Dave, what kind of PAWS would ‘Sheed have if he backed off the 3s?
WoW Pets
January 9, 2010
Have you considered that the LA Lakers’ initial schedule into this analysis. I think that plays a much bigger impact than some of these other things you mention here.