Last August I referred to the NBA franchise in Memphis as the Memphis Lions. Essentially I argued that the Memphis Grizzlies and Detroit Lions are quite similar. Both teams have an owner that claims winning is important. And most seasons, the team finishes with a losing record.
The Detroit Lions have once again followed this pattern. The 2009 season has now concluded and the Lions 2-14 record means fans of this team are now looking forward to the NFL draft (we actually started thinking of the draft in September).
The Memphis Lions Vanish
Meanwhile the Memphis Lions… demolished the Phoenix Suns on Saturday night. And now the Grizzlies have a 16-16 record. So it appears the Memphis Lions have gone away.
And of course we wonder: How did this happen?
A glance at Table One reveals who is responsible for this change.
Table One: The Memphis Grizzlies after 32 Games in 2009-10
Table One indicates that the Grizzlies are on pace to win 40 games this season (and if that happens this will be the fourth best mark in franchise history). Nearly 30 of these wins can be tied to the production of two players: Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Based on last year’s performance each player was expected to be among the leading producers of wins on the Grizzlies. This year, though, each is doing much more.
Relative to last year, Randolph has improved with respect to shooting efficiency and rebounds (the improved shooting efficiency can be partially explained by Randolph taking fewer three point shots). The same story (minus the three-pointer story) can be seen with respect to Gasol.
The Benefit of the NBA Draft?
One of the supposed benefits of losing is that a team gets a top draft choice. After years of losing the Grizzlies have certainly accumulated a few top picks. What is interesting (at least to me) – as the following list illustrates — is the size of the benefit these top draft picks have provided.
- Rudy Gay (8th pick in 2006): 5.4 projected wins in 2009-10
- Mike Conley (4th pick in 2007): 1.1 projected wins in 2009-10
- O.J. Mayo (3rd pick in 2008): 4.5 projected wins in 2009-10
- Hasheem Thabeet (2nd pick in 2009): 2.4 projected wins in 2009-10
If we add the projections together we only see 13.5 wins. So if the Grizzlies were depending on their top draft picks they would still be the Memphis Lions. Rather than depending on the draft, the Grizzlies have improved because of a second round choice in the 2007 draft (Gasol) and a high-priced power forward the L.A. Clippers essentially gave away this past summer (Randolph).
Lucky or Good?
One could argue that the performance of both Gasol and Randolph was not expected when Memphis acquired these players. And had these players performed as they did last year, Memphis would be on pace to win fewer than 30 games again. So it looks like the Grizzlies have essentially stumbled on wins (sounds something like a great title for a great book). The teams high draft picks have yet to produce significant quantities of wins (although Thabeet is already above average very early in his career). And the team’s top producers of wins had not done this in the past.
Of course, it’s better to be lucky than good (or at least, that is how the saying goes). But in evaluating decisions – and learning how to make better choices – it’s important to know why success (or failure) was achieved. And when we look at the Grizzlies, it looks like at least some of this team’s success is tied to simple good fortune (as opposed to simply great decisions).
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
123
January 4, 2010
He’s not Zach Richardson and you mixed up Grizzlies and Lions somewhere too
dberri
January 4, 2010
Not sure how Randolph became Richardson. I think I fixed all the places I did that.
Andrew
January 4, 2010
What would Rudy Gay’s WP48 be if he played only small forward?
He’s actually playing really well this year. He draws a lot of fouls, he’s shooting a career-high (and objectively good) percentage despite taking a career high in shots per game, he’s rebounding more from the SF spot, and he has even improved his microscopic assist rate.
One of the more interesting things about Gay’s game is that a ridiculous percentage of his shots are dunks (13%), and nearly half of them (46%) are unassisted (according to 82games.com). He averages exactly one unassisted dunk per game, which has to be among the highest in the league, if not the highest.
Nick
January 4, 2010
I think the fact that Memphis gave Gasol a 3 year 9.72M dollar contract (more or less equivalent to the first three years of what Johnny Flynn got at the sixth pick this year) indicates that they had a fair idea of Gasol’s caliber.
Also regarding Gasol’s performance last year: I do not think that Memphis counting on the improvement of their 24 year old center who had only played one year in the NBA is all that unreasonable or remarkable.
TRad
January 4, 2010
Gasol was acquired in the trade with Lakers (for another Gasol). I think Grizzlies have an idea he could be quite good.
stephanieg
January 4, 2010
Is Z-Bo confused? His contract year is next year, not this year.
Italian Stallion
January 4, 2010
I’m of the view that when your PF has a good outside shoot it’s a plus because it extends the defense and brings a big man away from the basket. That in turn is a net positive for slashers and/or good offensive rebounders.
The problem is that some PFs start relying on those less efficient shots too much and in turn hurt the team more than extending the floor helps.
I think Z-Bo has been a classic example of a guy with very good skills that played foolishly.
I didn’t see him much in Portland, but I watched him in NY. It was clear that he was a below average 3P shooter, but he was given the green light to shot them in fairly high volumes (also outside shots that were inside the arc) . That was obviously a mistake. Every sophisticated fan knew it. Now he seems to be playing a lot smarter.
If you want another example of this but in reverse look at the NY Knicks since December.
David Lee is now successfully shooting mid range and other outside shots in much higher volumes than before. That has had a positive impact on him and the rest of team. When the defense gives him room, now he knocks the shot down. When they come out, he either drives past and uses his always excellent finishing skills or finds a finisher that takes it inside.
That finisher has been Wilson Chandler.
WC has always been viewed as talented guy with horrible shot selection. His efficiency has been atrocious. But two things changed about a month ago. Lee started helping space the floor and Wilson finally learned how to play basketball.
Similar to Randolph, WC stopped shooting as many 3s and other jump shots and started using his athletic gifts to get to the hoop. Now his efficiency is soaring.
Given these two examples and the example of Josh Smith, I think we can see that there are players that can change their efficiency by either playing smarter or by being teamed with players that allow them to use their skills better.
benamery21
January 4, 2010
Me (last week): What would XXX WP be if he were listed as a small forward?
Everyone else: it’s not, and it doesn’t matter, and besides you know nothing about basketball.
Me: but, but, but …?
Other Fan (this week): What would XXX WP be if he were listed as a small forward?
Me: Oy.
todd2
January 5, 2010
Memphis is 10-5 at home and 6-11 away. Why is there such a discrepancy and what makes some teams better on the road?
TBall
January 5, 2010
The w-l record for Memphis home/away split is not that unusual. Only a handful of teams each season manage a winning record on the road and those are typically the teams that play ball in June and/or have the type of team that wins 32+ at home and 55+ on the season. Last year, every team with a winning road record, aside from the Spurs, had 32+ wins at home and 54+ overall.
The gut answer to that question is “leadership,” “veteran-laden roster,” “experience,” etc. The Spurs split this season is similar to Memphis and lets just say they have every intangible you could want.
Michael
January 5, 2010
Interestingly every team in the southwest division is now at 0.500 or better.
Russell
January 8, 2010
The Grizzlies outperformed my expectations. My formula is sound. Therefore, the Grizzlies are lucky.
You literally can’t beat that logic.
todd2
January 10, 2010
Detroit is a veteran squad. Most of Memphis’ squad is under 25 years old. There’s still a lot of room for improvement. Draft busts are a frequent topic, but how do we explain players who dramatically improve after they enter the league? Physical/emotional maturity, better coaching, a style of play that’s more conducive to their ability?
khandor
January 28, 2010
IS,
re: “Given these two examples and the example of Josh Smith, I think we can see that there are players that can change their efficiency by either playing smarter or by being teamed with players that allow them to use their skills better.”
… and, I would also add, by being exposed to and learning to adapt to a type of elite level coaching which is a better fit for their unique skill-set and appropriately maximizes their individual strengths while minimizing their individual weaknesses.