As noted yesterday, Rose currently has an 0.053 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes]. Such a mark is well below average (average WP48 is 0.100). Of all the players selected for the sophomores in the Rookie Challenge, Rose was the least productive. And now he has been promoted to the actual All-Star game. On the surface, this seems like a bizarre choice. But if we delve a bit deeper, this choice by the NBA coaches can be defended (at least, I am going to offer a defense).
The WP48 Case for Rose
In the discussion of the Rookie Challenge it was noted that NBA coaches can’t just pick the best players. These players are going to play a game, so there needs to be players selected who can play each position. And at point guard in the Eastern Conference, the pickings are quite slim.
Here is a list of the top 10 points guards – ranked by WP48 [minimum 800 minutes played] – in the Eastern Conference.
- Rajon Rondo: 0.276 WP48 (started all games)
- Luke Ridnour: 0.167 WP48 (41 non-starts)
- Jose Calderon: 0.149 WP48 (7 non-starts)
- Jason Williams: 0.139 WP48 (24 non-starts)
- Louis Williams: 0.111 WP48 (2 non-starts)
- Mike Bibby: 0.098 WP48 (started all games)
- Mo Williams: 0.091 WP48 (started all games)
- Chris Duhon: 0.071 WP48 (started all games)
- Mario Chalmers: 0.070 WP48 (19 non-starts)
- Gilbert Arenas: 0.066 (started all games)
Rondo was selected by the coaches. But after Rondo, what other point guard should be going to an All-Star game? One would suspect that an All-Star should at least start for his team (only Tim Duncan and Allen Iverson have not started every game they played this year). And after Rondo, every other point guard listed above who started all his team’s games is also below average.
In addition, Rose has gotten better as the season has progressed. Here are his month-by-month WP48 marks:
November: -0.028
December: 0.022
January: 0.134
So if we focus strictly on January, then one could argue that in the Eastern Conference, Rose is one of the top point guards.
WP48 numbers for each star
All that being said, we should be clear that among the players in the All-Star, Rose is one of the least productive players (so Rose is not really a “star player” yet). Here are the WP48 marks for each player who will play in this game (after 41 games this season).
Western Conference All-Stars
- Chris Paul: 0.372
- Pau Gasol: 0.359
- Tim Duncan: 0.357
- Steve Nash: 0.296
- Zach Randolph: 0.255
- Kevin Durant: 0.240
- Deron Williams: 0.216
- Brandon Roy: 0.202
- Kobe Bryant: 0.184
- Carmelo Anthony: 0.160
- Dirk Nowitzki: 0.150
- Amare Stoudemire: 0.144
Eastern Conference
- LeBron James: 0.420
- Gerald Wallace: 0.344
- Dwight Howard: 0.341
- Rajon Rondo: 0.276
- Kevin Garnett: 0.266
- Chris Bosh: 0.264
- Dwyane Wade: 0.245
- Al Horford: 0.242
- Paul Pierce: 0.209
- Joe Johnson: 0.157
- Derrick Rose: 0.053
- Allen Iverson: 0.036
Looking for Snubs
Of course, once we note who is in we need to mention some players whose productivity was ignored by the coaches and the fans. Here is the productivity of a few players who Henry Abbott of TrueHoop thinks were snubbed:
Western Conference Snubs?
- Chauncey Billups: 0.214
- Chris Kaman: 0.027
- Marc Gasol: 0.199
- Carlos Boozer: 0.243
- Nene: 0.198
- Carl Landry: 0.161
- Andrew Bynum: 0.161
Eastern Conference Snubs?
- Josh Smith: 0.272
- David Lee: 0.247
- Antawn Jamison: 0.152
- Andre Iguodala: 0.234
- Ray Allen: 0.092
- Andrew Bogut: 0.192
- Joakim Noah: 0.279
- Anderson Varejao: 0.175
If we look at the Western Conference stars, I don’t think Chauncey Billups is a better choice than Deron Williams. But Jason Kidd [0.314 WP48] could have been considered. And it looks likeDirk Nowitzki and Amare Stoudemire could be replaced by Marc Gasol and Carlos Boozer [or Marcus Camby or Kevin Love].
In the East, one might think Josh Smith and David Lee should be in. But the productivity of Smith and Lee is not much different from what we see from Garnett and Bosh. So I am not sure Smith and Lee are truly snubs. On the other hand, I think Andre Iguodala should have been chosen over Joe Johnson (and certainly over Allen Iverson).
One last note… the average WP48 in the West is 0.245. In the East the average mark is 0.238. And if we calculate the East average without Iverson, this team’s average mark rises to 0.256. So the East with Iverson on the bench might be slightly better (just thought I would mention that point).
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Bump
January 29, 2010
Great piece, thanks for sharing.
Italian Stallion
January 29, 2010
Rose was hurting early in the season and since he got healthy started playing at a new level. Plus, this is another of those “future star” marketing moves. Rose is already a big name kid because he was selected so high in the draft. He’s almost obviously going to be an elite PG in a couple of years. The same cannot be said for any of the other guards in the east. So Rose has a political edge in the selection process.
John Giagnorio
January 29, 2010
I haven’t looked too carefully, but it sounds like Rose’s “improvement” in January has been from hitting a ton of mid range jump shots. I’d love to believe it’s sustainable, but…
Dan
January 29, 2010
Hey Dave – Good stuff.
The word around the rumor mill is that the 76ers are trying to pawn off Iguodala and Dalembert together, and that the cavaliers are possible suitors. Conventional wisdom says this would be a bad match for Cleveland because Iguodala is a small forward (umm, not the Cavs’ position of need). Furthermore, the Cavs seem to be looking for a stretch power forward, not another center.
According to WoWs, however, Iggy and Dalambert are quite productive players. Would they’d still be productive in Cleveland, though? Specifically, do you think Iguodala is quick enough to play shooting guard and would his lack of a consistent outside shot hamper the offense?
Peter
January 30, 2010
Other notable asides:
Seven of the All-Star players (Randolph, Durant, Williams, Wallace, Rondo, Rose, and Horford) are appearing in their first game. The average WP of the newbies is .232, compared to .245 for the returnees. Overall, the average newbie, from a productivity standpoint, doesn’t compare too shabbily to a returnee. Note that the average of the latter group climbs to .258 without Iverson.
The average WP48 of the players chosen by fans (the starters) is .245, while those of the reserves is .239. But the fans’ choices run the gamut from Iverson to LeBron James. And one can make the argument that, say, Chris Paul “deserves” the starting spot more than Steve Nash on the basis of WP48, or Durant over Anthony.
No first-timers are All-Star starters.
Don’t forget that Tracy McGrady was close to getting a nod.