The race in the Western Conference seems quite similar to many of the races we are seeing at the Winter Olympics. The Portland Trailblazers took the lead out of the gates. But injuries to both Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla (among others), knocked the Blazers from the list of contenders.
Meanwhile, after a slow start, Pau Gasol returned from injury and the Lakers surged into the lead. Heading into the All-Star break it seemed like no one was going to catch the Lakers in the West.
Then the Mavericks made a trade that allowed them to narrow the substantial distance between Dallas and LA. Now the Blazers – with the acquisition of Marcus Camby – are also posed to make a late-season charge. And we still haven’t reached the trade deadline.
To see why Camby allows the Blazers to start charging, let’s briefly look at where this team was at the All-Star break. After 55 games the Blazers had posted a 2.4 efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency). This is consistent with a team that wins between 31 and 32 games (out of 55). The team actually won 31 games, putting this team on pace to fall short of 50 victories across an entire season. In sum, the Blazers were not contenders.
Table One: The Portland Trail Blazers after 55 games in 2009-10
As often noted, Wins Produced is derived from efficiency differential. And when we review each player’s Wins Produced – as reported in Table One – we can see why Portland had fallen back to the pack. Of the four top players in WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes], two players (Oden and Przybilla) were lost for the season.
The player who took many of the minutes from Oden and Pryzbilla was Juwan Howard. Across his career, Howard has been paid more than $140 million. But as noted back in 2006, Howard has never been a very productive NBA player. And although he has played better in 2009-10 than he did in limited minutes last season, he’s still below average.
Now it’s possible that many of Howard’s minutes can be given to Camby. To understand the impact of this change, consider that…
- Howard has produced 1.5 wins in 1,067 minutes this season. Hence his WP48 is 0.067 (average is 0.100).
- Camby has posted a 0.431 WP48 this season. Such a mark across 1,067 minutes is worth 9.6 wins. In other words, if Portland had been able to switch from Camby to Howard when Oden and Przybilla left the scene, the Blazers would have already won about eight additional games.
So adding Camby to this roster – if he primarily takes the minutes of Howard – is enough to transform the Blazers back into contenders.
Now there’s a downside to this move. Steve Blake, who has been above average, is gone. And his minutes probably go to Jerryd Bayless. As one can see in Table One, Bayless is the least productive player on the Blazers. So losing Blake does hurt.
Then again, the team does have Nicolas Batum back, and that’s going to help. Consequently, I think I am going to stick with my story. Portland is once again a contender.
Of course, Portland is more than 10 games behind the Lakers and this move doesn’t really make Portland better than LA. It just means that the gap is not going to grow much anymore.
So although the Lakers will probably finish first in the regular season, the Western race to the NBA Finals suddenly looks very interesting. Entering the All-Star break the list of contenders that looked capable of surpassing 55 wins began and ended with the Lakers. Now the moves the Mavericks and Blazers have made – while too late to actually get either team to 55 wins – suddenly increases the quality of each team to the level of a 55-win team. So the road to the finals for the Lakers suddenly looks much more difficult. And again, hopefully the moves are not finished.
Let me close with a quick note on the Olympics. JC Bradbury – the Baseball Economist – is now working on Olympic research. He has started blogging at Olympic-Reference.com, and so far has already put up four posts on the Winter games (with two of these on the topic of aging and performance). Furthermore, he’s scheduled to present a paper on the Olympics at the Western Economic Association meetings this summer. JC is actually part of an entire session on the Olympics, so look for more research on this topic in the future.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
PJ
February 17, 2010
Thought of Wages of Wins as soon as the move was announced — WP48 likes Camby more than most other rubrics and observers. Will be interesting to see whether he makes the kind of difference that WP48 expects.
Alvy
February 17, 2010
What becomes of Brandon Roy?
dberri
February 17, 2010
If Roy doesn’t play then the Blazers fall back to the pack again. Roy obviously has to play and be productive.
Andrew
February 18, 2010
I have been reading this blog for a few years and it has felt to me like your data gives big men more credit for wins than to guards and small forwards. The data shows average big men putting up WP48 numbers that are much higher than superstar players at other positions. I realize the term superstar goes to the players who usually score the most points but it seems that centers and power forwards receive an over exaggerated amount credit in comparison to guards. Any thoughts?
mrparker
February 18, 2010
Prof,
How about a post on the best players in the NBA with some level of scoring prowess being a prerequisite? I’m sick of seeing Bean Bryant get credited with what he hasn’t done. I can’t watch the NBA on television anymore. Help a bball fanatic out.
mrparker
February 18, 2010
also,
Is anyone else frustrating by watching star player x hog the ball and shoot woefully in the first half thus putting his team in a hole. Then keep shooting himself back to an average level game and get credit for the comeback. Ummm…..the team was losing because of starplayer x to begin with. If only this method worked in high school. You could slack the first half of each semester only to pick it up once you realized you were about to fail and receive and A instead of a C.
I hate ESPN
mrparker
February 18, 2010
andrew,
This has been addressed a couple times in this blog. One of the posts is called “The Short Supply of Tall People”. I think(underlined think) the conclusion is that its easy to dominate a smaller sample size.
Michael
February 18, 2010
It’s just because bigs are more likely to take high percentage shots and grab rebounds, and less likely to turn the ball over, and those things tend to help teams win games.
It’s not a flaw in the system, more a fact of the game.
mrparker
February 18, 2010
Michael,
That explains why bigs have a higher Paws but not why they tend to get outrageous wins produced. Wins produced are adjusted for position.
dberri
February 18, 2010
And the higher WP48 marks are linked to the short supply of tall people. There is a limited population of big men and when population is limited, the very best will go well beyond average. As population grows the performance of the top athletes becomes closer to the mean.
khandor
February 18, 2010
Neither the Mavericks nor the Blazers helped themselves in the long term by the trades they’ve made approaching the deadline.
re: Dallas
The Mavs are a worse defensive team today than they were last week … especially at the wing positions … and, are now well in arrears of the Jazz, as the actual No. 2 team in the WC.
re: Portland
Possibly making the playoffs this season with the addition of Camby should not be equated with achieving the team’s long term goals.
As a versatile perimeter-based Power Forward who can also effectively check the SF position and make a 1-dribble jump-shot with the game on the line, Travis Outlaw was a terrific complementary player to LaMarcus Aldridge/PF-C and Greg Oden/C … looking down the road apiece for the Blazers.
As much as I like Nicolas Batum/SF-OG, Rudy Fernandez/SF-OG and Dante Cunningham/PF-SF, none of the three actually has what Travis Outlaw offerred to Portland, from a long term POV, as a “closer” to play beside Brandon Roy and one of either LA or GO.
mrparker
February 18, 2010
Khandor,
Doesn’t Camby make Portland’s defense elite? With Roy in the lineup isn’t this team capable of equaling what Camby’s Denver teams accomplished?
Long term I agree with you. But its not as if Camby has a ridiculous contract. Besides contract lengths team can do little to harm themselves as long as they acquire above average players
khandor
February 18, 2010
Mr. Parker,
1. It’s not that Marcus Camby’s contract is a long term burden.
2. It’s just that, IMO, Travis Outlaw should have been viewed as a solid piece to the long term puzzle of the Blazers’ continued development over the course of the next 3-5 years.
3. Although Kevin Pritchard still has all sorts of talented pieces to shift around the chess-board …
IMO, he made an error in this instance, by holding onto ALL of Portland’s smaller solid PGs, OGs and SFs … i.e. Miller, Bayless, Mills [?], Roy [no-brainer], Webster [no-brainer], Batum [no-brainer], and Fernandez [?] … and not trading 1 of them, rather than a bigger versatile [young veteran] player like Travis Outlaw [PF-SF].
4. Despite being a solid rebounder and team defender, Marcus Camby has always lacked [i] the type of physicality and [ii] centrifugal force personality needed at the Center position to help his team succeed in a major way at the highest level of the game.
There are good reasons why the Denver Nuggets have stepped up to a different [higher?] level of performance the last 2 years … in addition to the arrival of C-Bills, and the growing maturity of C-Anthony, etc. … e.g. by committing to a player/personality/person like Nene, as their main-frame Center, opposed to Marcus Camby.
leon
February 18, 2010
And obviously nothing to do with Chauncey?
Khandor you are worth it for a wee laugh sometimes big lad.
Portland pretty much traded away as little as they could. Maybe Bayless instead of Blake, but most people (i.e. not readers of this blog) will think that his age will mean he will be an above average player one day, in all honesty it doesn’t look likely.
Looking at the other players you mention, I’m pretty sure the clips wouldn’t take 2 point guards in a trade, they already have Baron, who is firstly a good player and two on a hefty contract. Rudy Fernandez is an above average performer, will stay an above average performer and looks set for big things in the nba. He was extremely good in his time over here in Europe.
mrparker
February 18, 2010
I guess we will have to see. These trades always go well for the better team. A good team that adds a really productive player without subtracting any usually gets better. The same cant be said for when a guy goes from a better team to a worse team.
khandor
February 19, 2010
leon,
1. Do you happen to know who C-Bills is?
2. If you think that Rudy Fernandez happens to be a better “NBA player” than Travis Outlaw, then, that is certainly your perogative. Personally, I do not share that specific take on those 2 players.
3. If you think that Steve Blake happens to be a better “NBA player” than Jerryd Bayless, then, that is certainly your perogative. Personally, I do not share that specific take on those 2 players.
Time will tell which one of our opinions is eventually proven to be more correct than the other.
———————————————
Mr. Parker,
1. When Travis Outlaw was healthy, he was a productive player for the Blazers.
2. There are several reasons why Portland is not winning as many of their close games this season compared to the last 2 years, and Travis Outlaw’s absence from their everyday line-up is a significant part of that equation. The Blazers have and will continue to miss his ability [at his size] to take and make big perimeter jump-shots with the game on the line.
3. Despite my appreciation for Travis Outlaw’s individual skill-set, I agree with your specific take on the reality of a good/productive player joining a dysfunctional organization like the Clippers. When the environment isn’t right there, in the first place, that player is unlikely to have a major impact.
mook
February 19, 2010
Portland really won’t miss Outlaw. Cunningham and Batum have both demonstrated similar proficiency at mid- and long-range shots, but without Outlaw’s penchant for getting completely lost within the offense or defense. The team is much, much smarter without Outlaw in there.
Cunningham has almost the exact same PER as Outlaw, but also gives you reasonably smart defense and the ability blend into an offense. Batum’s PER is much, much better than Outlaw’s.
So did Portland lose a guy who could make clutch shots? Yes. But they also lost a guy who wastes valuable seconds on the clock. Add that in to Outlaw’s annoying habit of passing up easy jumpers to drive into the lane and shoot Jordan fadeaways.
All told, Outlaw *created* far more clutch shot situations than he ever made.
khandor
February 22, 2010
NBA Hoops is a game of individual match-ups … and, unfortunately, this type of situation,
Boozer leads Utah comeback win over Portland
———————————————————-
Williams missed, but Boozer was there to clean up.
“He’s so strong. … You can’t take away from his physical gift he has out there, his knack for getting the basketball,” Camby said of Boozer.
———————————————————-
happens all too frequently for Marcus Camby.
Steven
February 24, 2010
Your article should be ‘should Portland have been able to switch from “Howard to Camby”‘ not “Camby to Howard” as it is now