It was announced today (or maybe last night) that the Rockets and Kings have a deal involving Tracy McGrady and Kevin Martin. Here is my first impression of this move (and I am ignoring completely what the Knicks might do today).
Once upon a time, McGrady was one of the most productive players in the game. From 2000-01 to 2002-03 he posted the following WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] marks.
2000-01: 0.279
2001-02: 0.303
2002-03: 0.325
But after peaking in 2003 (around the age of 23), McGrady’s production has tumbled. In 2003-04 and 2004-05 his WP48 mark barely surpassed 0.200. And while McGrady has been consistently above average (average WP48 is 0.100), his marks the past four years have been below 0.200.
2005-06: 0.152
2006-07: 0.186
2007-08: 0.110
2008-09: 0.163
Of course this year he has only played 46 minutes. So at this point, McGrady was offering essentially nothing to the Rockets on the court.
Today, though, it was announced that McGrady’s nothing has been traded for Kevin Martin. Here is what Martin has done [with respect to WP48] across the past four year.
2005-06: 0.160
2006-07: 0.199
2007-08: 0.192
2008-09: 0.115
In three of the past four years, Martin has offered more than McGrady. Plus Martin is four years younger. So it looks like the Rockets have turned a nothing into quite a something.
There are, though, some issues to consider. Martin was only barely above average last year. And this season, after just 22 games (he missed more than 30 due to injury), his WP48 stands at 0.100. Obviously these numbers are not quite what we saw the last time Martin played 80 games in a season (2006-07).
Beyond questions about Martin’s ability to produce and stay healthy is the additional players included to make this trade happen. The Rockets are sending Carl Landry and Joey Dorsey (plus cash) to the Kings for Kenny Thomas, Hilton Armstrong, and Sergio Rodriguez. At the moment, Landry’s Wins Produced of 4.7 represents the third highest mark on the Rockets (Luis Scola and Kyle Lowry have eached produced 5.1 wins this season). And Dorsey – in just 54 minutes – has posted a 0.304 WP48. The loss of these two players leave the Rockets with Scola and Chuck Hayes as the only above average performers at power forward and center. So although the transformation of McGrady into Martin could be quite a feat, the loss of Landry in the frontcourt is going to limit the positive effects of this trade.
As for the Kings…Landry is already the most productive big man on the roster. And with Tyreke Evans and Omri Casspi, it looks like the Kings now have a trio of productive players to build upon.
Putting the whole picture together… it looks like the Kings are now a better team and Houston – Martin can return to form – could be somewhat better. And now that I see this, I wish I had spent more of this quick post on the Kings (but that’s what you get when you write before you finish thinking about something).
Quick Update: The pieces added to this trade from the Knicks don’t really change the story. Jordan Hill, Jared Jeffries, and Larry Hughes are all below average performers this year. Hill, though, is a rookie. So he might develop into something (although his college numbers weren’t encouraging).
Another quick update: Forgot to note the draft picks. If the Knicks continue to make poor choices (a real possibility) and therefore do not build a winner in the near future, this could be a very good deal for the Rockets.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
khandor
February 18, 2010
The Kings getting Landry in return for Martin is a coup.
The Rockets getting Martin in return for McGrady is a wasted opportunity for Morey/Houston.
Martin is not going to make the Rockets a legitimate long term contender in the WC. He’s a marginal-to-average NBA player who is capable of putting up good offensive numbers while playing for a bad team.
For an already “good” team like the Rockets, adding a non-physical wing player like Martin is a non-factor in terms of being able to move closer to the other top teams in the WC.
Daniel
February 18, 2010
If Yao returns to form, he is more productive than Landry, and the Rockets have indeed turned something into nothing.
Daniel
February 18, 2010
*Nothing into something.
dberri
February 18, 2010
Daniel,
Yes if you consider Yao coming back and all those draft picks, this could be a very good move. Notice how my impression of the trade evolves as I think about this. Maybe I should think first and write second.
Kevin
February 18, 2010
Landry is a big injury risk as well. He’s never been able to log true starter minutes because of his legs (his knees, specifically, I think). His productivity will likely be limited by that in the long run.
Having Martin in the starting lineup is good enough reason to put Brooks on the bench and start Lowry, but that’s speculative. But having Martin should at least keep Ariza from shooting so much, which is primarily why Ariza’s productivity is down this year relative to past seasons. My hope is that Martin will soak up shots from the Rockets’ otherwise abysmal backcourt and wing shooters, primarily Brooks and Ariza, who are clearly over their heads as a group trying to score points from long range.
Martin is probably one of the few players in the NBA whose productivity would be greater if he shot more (assuming the shots are 3s, and he still manages to frequently get to the line).
mrparker
February 18, 2010
I’m wondering how fiscally driven this move by Morrey is. I expect him to get the best of other gms in the league and at first site it doesn’t seem he did on this one.
diehardNFFLbarnone
February 18, 2010
What do you think of Antawn Jamison to the Cavs?
Alien Human Hybrid
February 18, 2010
The Knicks made this move primarily for salary cap purposes. I think it is pretty evident that they do not have a roster worthy of drawing a major star. However, if they had the cap room they could sign 2 free agents. This could happen if they do not re-sign Lee. I think their hope is to sign Wade and LeBron, or Bosh and Wade, or LeBron and Bosh. From a productivity perspective, this would be a very good return for McGrady’s $22mil salary this year.
From a marketing perspective, I would guess that Wade and LeBron Knick jerseys would be top sellers. I think it would be fair to expect MSG to sell out every single game, as well.
diehardNFFLbarnone
February 18, 2010
@ Alien Human Hybrid – WHY would LeBron want to go to New York? The Cavs are winning the championship this year and MB (Mike Brown) is getting a 5-year extension for “services rendered”. The Knicks MAY get back to the Finals … in 2029/2030 – by which point LeBron will have RETIRED.
Alien Human Hybrid
February 18, 2010
Well, one school of thought: If LeBron wins a championship now, then he will feel able to leave Cleveland with a clear conscience, erasing the demons of losing that have been swirling over the heads of fans for the last 60 years. He then goes to rescue another ailing franchise, this time on the biggest stage/the largest media market in North America, making untold millions in domestic and international branding.
However, it is only a theory. :)
Palamida
February 18, 2010
The real kicker here is Dorsey. His college numbers boded extremely well and never should have been drafted that low.
He dominated in the D-League, dominated in the very little Pt he got in the NBA and quite frankly is a better Big man than most starters in the league.
Potentially he’s a top 5 Center if only he’d get a run for once. lest not forget the Kings get all that production for 900k or so.
If they’ll just have the smarts to get rid of Donte Green, and allocate PT to their productive guys they’re a decent team.
I’d like to see a “wild” experiment with the Kings going big:
Evans\Casspi\Landry\Thompson\Dorsey
I’d be interested to see how that lineup fares.
In summation, Morey disappoints and the Kings… “Stumble on wins”.
Nreisch
February 18, 2010
I love this site, but I notice some inconsistencies. You say that Martin only as a WP48 of 100, but you list him as having over 200 in your midpoint chart.
Similar thing with Hill, you say he is below average, but have him at a WP48 of above average on your midpoint chart.
Methinks one set of your calculations must be wrong.
dberri
February 18, 2010
Nreisch,
I noticed the same thing about Martin. If you look at his game-by-game stats, though, you will see that across the past 10 to 15 games he has played very poorly in a number of contests.
Martin really didn’t play many minutes across the first 41 games. So a few games can really change his WP48 score.
khandor
February 20, 2010
Expect the Knicks to use a principal rotation which is similar to the one they played with this evening … i.e. Knicks vs Thunder Boxscore. If T-Mac can actually remain healthy, there’s at least a decent possiblity they will be a competitive team for the balance of the season.