Jerry Sloan – as noted back in October of 2008 – often tells the players on his team to focus on something besides their own scoring. And players who go against this advice often suffer Sloan’s wrath.
Although a number of players have resisted such advice, Ronnie Brewer seemed to take it to heart. Across his career Brewer has taken a below average number of shots from the field. Consequently, Brewer hasn’t been much of a scorer. But when we look at his overall production, we see that Brewer is consistently above average with respect to shooting efficiency, steals, and turnovers. And when we put all these numbers together in terms of Wins Produced, we see in 2008-09 – as the following list of top shooting guards from that season reveals – Brewer ranked among the best in the game.
Dwyane Wade: 22.3 Wins Produced
Brandon Roy: 15.3 Wins Produced
Kobe Bryant: 15.0 Wins Produced
Mike Miller: 13.9 Wins Produced
Joe Johnson: 8.6 Wins Produced
Ronnie Brewer: 8.5 Wins Produced
Last season Brewer posted a 0.156 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes], a mark that actually exceeded what we saw from Joe Johnson. This season Brewer is still posting above average numbers. As Table One reveals, after 53 games Brewer had 4.9 wins and posted a 0.141 WP48. Such production ranked fifth on the Jazz, and suggested it was wise for this team to employ Brewer as Utah’s starting shooting guard.
Table One: The Utah Jazz after 53 games in 2009-10
Despite such wisdom for 53 games, though, the Jazz decided to go in a very diferent direction. After defeating the New Orleans Hornets on Wednesday night (the team’s 11th victory in 12 games), Brewer was sent the next day to the Memphis Grizzlies. In return, the Jazz received a protected first round pick in 2011. Here is how this trade was justified by Kevin O’Connor (Utah’s general manager).
O’Connor says the Jazz have some depth at Brewer’s position, so they could afford to trade Brewer, their first-round pick from the 2006 draft. Brewer is making $2.7 million this season and will be a restricted free agent this summer.
“We felt like we gain an asset for drafts coming up,” Jazz general manager Kevin O’Connor said Thursday. “We felt like we had a lot of players that were similar.”
So according to O’Connor, Utah already had players like Brewer. And if we focus on scoring, this appears to be true. Per 48 minutes, Brewer was scoring 14.8 points this season. The other potential shooting guards on the team – Wes Matthews and C.J. Miles – were scoring 18.2 and 20.4 points per 48 minutes. Of course, part of the difference is that these players were taking more shots per 48 minutes. If we focus on all that these players do – in other words, look beyond scoring — it’s clear that Miles and Matthews are not going to make up for the loss of Brewer. Both players are below average this season, and the combined productivity of these players is in the negative range.
One suspects that Brewer’s contributions were simply not evaluated correctly by O’Connor. Scoring is easy to see and appreciate in a basketball game. The object of the game is to put the ball in the hoop, so we tend to undervalue the people who are not doing this often. But for the ball to go into the hoop, other stuff has to happen. Steals and turnovers are important. And when it comes to shooting, it’s efficiency that matters. In other words, not making mistakes (committing turnovers and missing shots) is important. But it is hard to see a player not make mistakes. Consequently, Brewer is now going to avoiding mistakes for the Memphis Grizzlies.
It’s unlikely that Memphis will make the playoffs this season. And furthermore, it’s unlikely that Memphis is going to start Brewer. The Grizzlies starting shooting guard is O.J. Mayo, a player who scores 17.7 points per game (with a 0.075 WP48 after 54 games). Yes, Brewer offers more production overall, but again, scoring is what dominates perceptions in the NBA (again we see this when we look at the free agent salaries, the NBA draft, the allocation of minutes, and the assignment of awards).
So Brewer has learned a valuable lesson. Don’t listen to everything your coach says. When he recovers from his injury he will find himself coming off the bench for an inferior (although improving) team. In essence, Brewer has been demoted. All of this because he helped his team win by doing something other than scoring.
Let me close by noting that I obviously agree with Deron Williams. Here is how it was reported he reacted to the trade in the Salt Lake City Tribune (one of the papers delivered to my house each morning).
A day after the Jazz traded his self-described “little brother,” Deron Williams sharply questioned Friday the direction the team was going after the deal that sent Ronnie Brewer to Memphis for a protected first-round draft pick.
“I think if we’d make a trade it would be something a little different than that,” Williams said at the pregame shootaround. “You look at all the teams that are getting better around the West and we essentially get worse, if you ask me.”
Williams didn’t hide his frustration in talking to reporters and broadcasts, starting out by saying, “I really ain’t got nothing much good to say about the trade,” and declaring it was “pretty safe to say” his feelings were shared among the team.
Asked whether the Brewer trade affected his thinking about his long-term future in Utah, Williams uttered words that could reverberate in the team’s front office: “That’s why I signed a three-year deal.”
So apparently Williams doesn’t think Brewer will be easy to replace. And it’s safe to say, if Williams departs the Jazz, he won’t be easy to replace either.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Kevin
February 21, 2010
Unbelievable, and sort of depressing. I wonder why the GM didn’t try harder to move either Boozer or Millsap. Either of them have would have been happy to play 30+ minutes elsewhere. It would have saved the Jazz more money, and he may have gotten an even better pick, and someone more appropriate to bring off the bench (U. Haslem?). Brewer is cheap too. What a waste.
Robert
February 21, 2010
Why did you ignore the fact Korver can replace all of Brewer’s minutes? He’s putting up nearly identical WP48 – reason his minutes have been so limited is because he’s been recovering from an injury all year. If he does replace Brewer’s minutes, the Jazz suffer nearly no net loss and still save money + get the 1st round pick in 2011.
JChan
February 21, 2010
I think the problem wasn’t the trade, but the signing of C.J. Miles over the summer. Oklahoma City signed him as a restricted free agent, but the Jazz chose to match. If they let him go, then they wouldn’t have had the logjam at the position and they wouldn’t have needed to save the $5 million or so that the trade will save them.
dberri
February 21, 2010
Korver has not historically played as well as Brewer. Plus, Brewer is thought of as a shooting guard while Korver plays small forward.
And I agree with JChan. I think the Jazz made their choice last summer when they matched the offer for C.J. Miles. Miles has yet to show he is a productive NBA player.
diehardNFFLbarnone
February 21, 2010
What do you think of the Antawn Jamison trade?
GGrantham
February 21, 2010
From a ‘pure’ basketball perspective, Berri and Deron W are right. I don’t think that Sloan approved the trade. But from the GM’s perspective, it was a good move. Utah is at or above the salary cap and couldn’t afford to re-sign or match an offer for Brewer this summer. So it was better to trade him now for a 1st rounder, rather than lose him without compensation this summer.
Utah buried itself when it signed Kirilenko, Boozer and Okur to large contracts. Then, it had to pay D Will, and match offers on Milsap and Miles. The latter contracts were not in its plans. Brewer paid the price.
Palamida
February 21, 2010
GG, Why did Utah “have” to match the offer on Miles?
He’s simply a bad player, with the production he’s exhibiting this season he shouldn’t even be employed in the NBA let alone be paid 4M a year,
GGrantham
February 22, 2010
Palamida
If C.J. Miles is such a ‘bad’ player, why did Presti, a fairly astute GM, make him the offer? C.J. Miles is still only 22 years old and he is in his 5th NBA season. He is 6’6″ and 220 lbs. – a good sized 2 or a small 3. Last year his WP48 was .038 and he had 1.3 wins produced. This year he was injured and hasn’t been as good. For last season and this season he averages 20 minutes per game, 9 points, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, 1/2 steal. His efficiency is not good because misses shots and he average as many turnovers as he does assists. These proble may be correctable with time and good coaching. For the first four years of his career the Jazz paid him peanuts. When they matched, they didn’t know what they had in Wes Matthews. C.J. Miles can be a good backup 2 guard. He does not suck by any stretch of the imagination. Maybe you should talk to Sam Presti and Kevin O’Connor – both think he is a pretty good backup at age 22. (He will be 23 in one month).
Anon
February 22, 2010
But if signing the prospect with potential means you have to trade the player who is already a productive contributor to your team, wouldn’t it make more sense to keep the player who already contributes and was fairly young himself?
Chris
February 22, 2010
I generally respect WP and the analysis that flows from the numbers. One issue that I see with WP is that it cannot numerically capture the damage caused by a poor shooter with discipline, since that player can usually be efficient by mostly shooting dunks and layups.
Brewer’s numbers paint him in an exceedingly positive light. His outside shooting is just abysmal. His lack of shooting has just killed the Jazz the past couple years, especially in the playoffs. Kobe Bryant has essentially played a zone and dared Brewer to shoot. That he has remained an efficient scorer despite this glaring weakness is a testament to his skill, but it is a huge weakness that can be exploited by either 1) him refusing to shoot (with no corresponding decrease in efficiency) or 2) shooting and thus decreasing his efficiency.
While lack of outside shooting might be acceptable for a center such as Ben Wallace (although Cleveland would argue that he similarly killed them last year) it is a significant issue for a shooting guard, especially when your main small forward (AK) has exhibited the same lack of shooting throughout his career.
Of course, as was mentioned above, if the Jazz hadn’t made the mistake of paying C.J. 4 million then they probably wouldn’t have had to trade Ronnie in the first place. This trade was mostly financially motivated, after all.
Here’s to hoping he recovers quickly from his injury.
khandor
February 22, 2010
Although Ronnie Brewer/SF-OG is a solid back-up player … the combination of [i] Kirilenko/SF-PF, [ii] Miles/SF-OG, [iii] Korver/SF-OG and [iv] Matthews/SF-OG is what eventually made him expendable for the Jazz. Given the upside which Miles has … including the ability to shoot the ball from range … and his relative youth, moving Brewer in exchange for a future asset was a reasonable decision by Kevin O’Connor.
Kirilenko’s unfortunate history of injury woes is the only caveat in this situation.
Leon
February 22, 2010
Brewer is a an efficient shooter, who makes it to rim and knocks down his FT more often than not. He’s a good defensive stop, he rebounds well, is a reasonable passer and doesn’t turnover the ball. As far as I can see, with 3 0.200 starters, I don’t think you can ask for much more. Booze, AK and Deron will always fill it up, so I dunno what the beef is to be honest.
A.S.
February 22, 2010
Looks to me, based on the two games of evidence so far, that while Miles, Matthews and Korver will all gain minutes, the biggest beneficiary of minutes will be Korver (who has only averaged 13 minutes so far this year). Based on the Golden State game (2/19), Korver looks to be the 2-guard (coming in for Matthews) while Miles is the backup small forward. (Last night’s game doesn’t provide much evidence, since AK47 got hurt, messing up the rotations.)
Italian Stallion
February 22, 2010
Chris,
I tend to agree with you.
It seems as though it’s harder to measure the impact of one player’s skill set (or lack thereof) on other players.
I guess the theory in this case is that good outside shooters provide better spacing for big men to operate in the post and slashers to get into the paint.
Without that outside threat, opposing defenses can make subtle adjustments that make it more difficult for those players to get those highly efficient inside baskets.
That’s why the Cavs were so hot to sign Jamison (a so called stretch PF). They hope he will help create space for Shaq and Lebron and contribute in ways over and above what he contributes on his own.
I find it hard to believe that all these coaches and players are wrong about what’s happening on the court with various combinations of player types when they experience it every day.
J R Stewart
February 23, 2010
You’re disregarding the Jazz’ 2010-11 salary structure and Ronnie’s agent demanding $8m, which would have put the Jazz in luxury tax purgatory next year and prohibited resigning Korver and possibly Boozer. Matthews plays better defense and shoots better, for only $.5m.
The Jazz were going to lose Brewer next summer anyway, why not get a $2.7 TPE, a decent 1st round pick, save $4m this year and $4m-$16m next year, including tax?
Brewer’s lack of outside shooting allows defenses to collapse, see Kobe not even bothering to guard him! The other three demand coverage, because they CAN shoot, opening the floor for DWil, Booz and AK.
Jazzaholic
Paul
February 23, 2010
J R Stewart,
Isn’t Matthews also a free agent this offseason? Won’t his agent demand even more money, what with his better defence and shooting?
MC Welk
February 23, 2010
“Plus, Brewer is thought of as a shooting guard while Korver plays small forward.”
Where’s the spreadsheet on the perceived positionality of swingmen?
MC Welk
February 23, 2010
Actually Brewer is in part a casualty of Okur’s decreased effectiveness from the perimeter as they need Korver, Miles or Matthews out there more to spread the floor.
J R Stewart
February 23, 2010
Paul:
Matthews is a restricted FA and has a qualifying offer of $932,175.
Brewer’s qualifying is $3.7m. Big difference!
Brewer’s agent demanded $8m.
Hard to tell what they will end up getting, but Brewer was starting at $3.7m, wanting $8m.
I doubt the Jazz were willing to offer Brewer a qualifying. Why not get something, instead of nothing?
MC:
Both Korver and CJ can play small forward, since the Jazz wing players, 2-3, are essentially the same position, but their true position is Shooting Guard, because they can actually shoot, as opposed to Brewer, who allowed Kobe to roam and not bother to guard in the last 2 playoff series.
Memo has had a poor year, which happens every time Boozer has a good stretch. If Booz gets resigned, unlikely, Memo’s game will probably continue below par. If Booz goes, you can look for Memo to play better. Pairing up with Millsap or Fes, seems to work better.
Brewer is a causality of an undrafted Matthews having a better basketball IQ, defense and shooting, which make one of the wings expendable.
Brewer had a contract which fit under the Grizz cap, for salary/tax savings, now and next year, plus a draft pick and a TPE.
The Jazz covet Korver and want to resign him, CJ’s contract was too high to fit the Grizz cap space and too long. AK-47 is playing too well to let go and too large/long a contract to trade.
Brewer = odd man out.
It’s an emotional loss, because Ronnie was a great guy, but the Jazz really do play better without him, at least the last couple of games without him.
If the “best player” for the Knicks pick is a wing player, which has a large supply, the Jazz need space.
When the Jazz get to the playoffs, we should be able to make a better evaluation.
While this trade has some short term rational, you have to look long term to see what Kevin is trying to accomplish.
Jazzaholic
khandor
March 5, 2010
If the combination of Miles, Matthews and Korver can continue to perform like this, and the tandem of Kirilenko and Okur actually play to their capacity, there is no reason whatsoever this collection of players for the Jazz will miss Ronnie Brewer and fall short of reaching the WC Finals this season against the LA Lakers … provided that Utah is, in fact, able to catch Denver for the top spot in the Northwest Division.