Dwyane Wade sent his team a message during All-Star weekend:
“I’m in Miami,” he told a gaggle of reporters at All-Star weekend. “This is where I want to be.”
But he did not just leave it there. “I want to make sure,” he added, “that we do everything we can to make sure we build a winning program. We do that … I’m satisfied.”
In case there was any misinterpretation, a reporter asked if the Heat needed to add some pieces to entice him to stay.
“Yeah, we need to add pieces!” Wade said, busting into laughter at the obviousness of the situation. “Aint’ no question about that!”
Wade says the Heat have not had an elite roster in years. “We’re not one of the top teams in the League,” he explains. “You want to have an opportunity every year. You’re not Magic, you’re not Michael, you’re not Larry. You’re not going to win the championship every year. But you do want to have an opportunity to compete for that. I feel like we haven’t had the opportunity since ’06. I feel like, while I’m in my prime, before my prime leaves me in about four or five years, I want to make sure that I can give my all to the organization.”
So Wade’s message is…
- he wants to play in Miami.
- Miami needs help if it’s going to contend
- he is currently in his prime, and he expects that prime to last four or five years.
It’s not possible to comment on Wade’s desire to stay or leave Miami. But the other two contentions can be addressed.
After 57 games the Heat have posted a 29-28 record. If we turn to efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency), we see a mark of 1.5. That mark is consistent with a team that would win about 31 of their first 57 games. So the Heat’s record underestimates slightly the quality of this team. If this team was a serious contender, though, it would need to be on pace to surpass 50 wins; and whether we look at won-loss record of the team’s differential it is clear that the Heat are not a serious contender.
When we turn to the productivity of the individual players – reported in Table One – we can see where the Heat come up short.
Table One: The Miami Heat after 57 games in 2009-10
The top player on the Heat is obviously Wade. Wade has already produced 11.2 wins this season, or about one-third of the team’s totals. After Wade, though, there isn’t much. Quentin Richardson, Udonis Haslem, and Dorell Wright are each above average; and combined they have produced one more win than Wade. After this trio, the remainder of the team is posting WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] marks below 0.100 (the mark of an average player). That list of below average players include Rafer Alston, who is putting up numbers as a starter for the Heat similar to what he did in New Jersey. Alston is now 33 years of age, so despite the willingness of teams to place him in the starting line-up, it looks like the end is near for him.
When we look at all these numbers, it appears Wade’s argument has support. Prior to the trade deadline there was much talk that help was on the way, and one player that was mentioned was Amare Stoudemire. The addition of Stoudemire would have given the Heat two starting All-Stars. But it doesn’t look like that move would have transformed the Heat into title contenders.
To see this point, let’s imagine the Heat replaced their current starting power forward – Michael Beasley – with Stoudemire. Currently Stoudemire is posting a 0.142 WP48. If the Heat had received this level of production from Beasley (current WP48 of 0.087), Miami could have expected to win about two more games at this point in the season. Yes, Stoudemire is above average. But he’s not one of the top players in the game and therefore he wouldn’t have provided Wade with the help he desires.
What about Antawn Jamison? Jamison posted a 0.108 WP48 [and he is very old]. That’s slightly more than Beasley and somewhat less than Stoudemire (the difference between Stoudemire and Jamison is not quite as great as some might think). So again, this move doesn’t help much.
Okay, what about Carlos Boozer? Boozer’ sWP48 is above 0.250. Replacing Beasley with Boozer would net the Heat 6.1 additional wins after 57 games. And that would be enough to transform the Heat into a 53 win team across an 82 game schedule. So Boozer would have helped quite a bit, although the Heat still wouldn’t have been as good as LeBron James and the Cavaliers.
Now salary cap restrictions prevented the Heat from swapping Beasley directly for Stoudemire, Jamison, or Boozer. This exercise, though, reveals that replacing one below average starter with an All-Star is not enough to transform the Heat into title contenders. At least, that’s true if the All-Star isn’t named LeBron or CP3.
So the Heat – as currently assembled – definitely are not as good as Wade would like. And it’s probably going to take more than one move to change that reality.
Let me close by commenting on Wade’s last point. Wade argues that he is currently in his prime, and his prime-time is going to last another four or five years. Right now Wade is 28 years old. In general, we start to see noticable declines in player performance when an NBA player approaches 30 years of age. And by the time a player is 32 or 33 – as we see with Rafer Alston — typically their performance is not close to what we saw when a player was in his prime. Of course, any individual player can defy these trends for a period of time (although not forever). So it’s possible that Wade is correct. But in general, one should expect a 28 year-old basketball player to offer less and less as he ages (BTW the peak is around 24 and 25, but the performance at 28 is not much different from the peak).
And Wade’s history suggests some red flags. In three of his first six seasons he failed to play more than 61 games. Plus, he has never played 80 games in a season (and he is currently hurt again). Given this injury history and his age, perhaps the Heat should be thinking about whether they want to commit significant dollars to Wade. Yes, Wade is the most productive shooting guard in the game. But this is probably not going to be true throughout his next contract, a contract that will pay Wade like he is still the very best shooting guard. So for the Heat – or any other team looking to sign Wade to a new contract – his age and injury history should be something to think about. Again, it’s possible for Wade to defy these trends. The history of the league – and his own history – suggests that Wade’s primetime might not be as long as he thinks.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
khandor
February 23, 2010
“Peak Performance” which is measured on an individual basis according to a statistical metric that includes only GP, GS, MP, FGM-FGA, 3FGM-3FGA, FTM-FTA, OR, DR, TR, Ast, St, TO, BS, PF, Pts, and a host of other “advanced stats” … all of which are predicated on the former list of categories, as well … will always fall well short of being able to determine with accuracy when a basketball player actually reaches his Zenith of Productivity, and for what specific period of time he [or she] is able to sustain that highest level of Individual AND Team Performance.
Take a look at this all-time great’s individual record of achievement … and, then, try to assert again that he was, somehow, NOT at the Peak Of His Performance Abilities during the middle stage of his athletic career, i.e. 1990-1991 [27], 1991-1992 [28], 1992-1993 [29], 1995-1996 [32], 1996-1997 [33] and 1997-1998 [34] seasons? … as opposed to the 19985-1986 [22], 1986-1987 [23] and 1987-1988 [24] seasons, when he was in a younger age bracket and a far less polished player/person.
bags fly free
February 23, 2010
wow didn’t realize wade is this old….perhaps pat raley should start thinking about miami’s future without wade, making things worse is wade committing to US basketball team for Olympics and other international games, meaning less rest in the off season
Dre
February 23, 2010
http://www.wagesofwins.com/MJCareer.html
If you look there, we do see Jordan “Peaked” in his mid 20s, he just happened to be amazing almost all of his career. Also the point is that generally a player peaks in their mid 20s and slowly declines, one counter example does not disprove a trend. Also Magic Johnson is a much better counter example as he had his best season at 29 http://www.wagesofwins.com/MagicCareer.html
kevin
February 23, 2010
Beasley should be better than he is. With his talent, there is no way he shouldbe a below average player.
I realize he’s young and is still on the forward slope of the learning curve but still…
preston
February 23, 2010
he’s glenn robinson jr, maybe the odom 1.5 … he’s clearly high during games
Italian Stallion
February 23, 2010
I think Stoudemire would improve the team by more than suggested. He started off the season poorly as he recovered from all his health issues and seems to be playing closer to his “peak” level right now. I think that partly explains why the Suns reversed course and felt the offers were inadequate.
Beasley still has plenty of upside if he can keep his head on straight.
Italian Stallion
February 23, 2010
DBerri,
A lot of your readers might be interested in why the Lakers have continued to play well without Kobe. :)
f19ure
February 23, 2010
DBerri,
Wade seems to have gotten better through the progression of the season.
He shouldn’t be nearly as productive as he was in 08-09, but perhaps not too far off from the mark (set last year) by regular-season’s end.
And while no one expects Wade to be around at 40 (like Stockton), Wade should still be fairly productive at 33.
Of course, I would be skeptical of building around Wade past 1 contract extension.
All three of these guys, (LeBron) James, (Chris) Paul, and Wade don’t seem destined for careers spanning beyond 15 years. At most Wade and Paul should only play 13 seasons in the NBA.
AQ
February 23, 2010
Saying Amare would have helped less than boozer based on wins produced, discounts the fact that this number could change based on how the players fits into the new system. remember both players do not have a wade type player in their respective teams, that too would change the dynamic of their game. Furthermore, the addition of such a player would improve miami’s fringe players as well, since they would have another top player to play off of. Think of the lakers for example…just one player in Pau Gasol changed the whole team dynamic, it made them champions, before him they were first round knockouts.
the statistics fail to impress once again.
A players Peak cannot be 24-25 (unless in terms of athleticism) performance and skills wise as far as having aquired a complete game for maximum effect on the game i would say the PEAK is 27-30 yrs of age bracket.
Leon
February 24, 2010
Anecdotal evidence doesn’t trump empirical evidence. Besides, I think taking some of the best players ever as counter-examples is perhaps tenuous. Either way the peak age doesn’t surprise me; injuries and age must catch up with you regardless of how good you are.
But perhaps a reason for the skew we see between “observed” peak age and empirical peak age could be explained by rational expectations. When a player has a one-off good season, his stock obviously rises, (i.e. the apparent big improvement of Brooks, Big Baby etc.) but true All-star players, and those seen as the best in the game have to be productive over a period of years for somebody to believe it isn’t just a one off. This has economical rationale behind it. And so although a player may have a break out season when they are 23-26, it’s after 3 or so top seasons that we start to believe they are one of the best in the game.
Ok now I know I shot down singlular examples earlier, but: how about Stoudemire, Nash, Marion, Billups, Joe Johnson. I know that this is a small sample size, but these are ones that spring to mind.
Andres
February 24, 2010
SGs like Wade, like Kobe, like MJ, do not regress like everyone else because they evolve their games to match their declining physical abilities. Unlike MJ and Kobe, though, Wade has had more injuries, likely due to his smaller frame (6’4 as opposed to 6’6, 6’7). Another thing that hurts Wade is that while all three have had to carry the load, Wade has had to carry more load at more points in his career. Jordan played with Pippen for the majority of his career. Kobe had Shaq, a few seasons with no one, and now he has Pau Gasol. Wade’s first 2.5 years, he had plenty of support. But by the playoffs of 2006, he was dragging Shaq on his back, and hasn’t looked back. That puts an additional toll on his body. It may have already put an irreversible strain on the length of his career, which is why he has 5 more years, instead of say 8 or 9, which Kobe would have at this point in his career.
New York
February 24, 2010
This is a bit speculative but your comments about a player’s age and his prime make me wonder: lets say the Knicks get both Lebron and Bosh next season, keep Gallinari and Chandler, and fill out the roster with minimum players, which will produce on average an 0.50 WP48. Will they be a favorite to win a championship? What would be their window of opportunity? My gut says No to the first question, and 2-3 years at most to the second. And another question: is there a calculator out there for doing the WP48 for a player? I’d think it should plug into (scrape) one of the sites that keeps stats on a regular basis, and than do the simple math. Not a difficult thing to write for a good software developer.
John Giagnorio
February 24, 2010
Using the “all players at midseason” post:
Lebron James is on pace to produce 27.7 wins.
Chris Bosh is on pace to produce 16 wins.
Gallinari and Chandler a combined 12 wins.
It looks like that alone would make the Knicks one of the top 3-4 teams. I would also imagine the Knicks will turn Eddy Curry’s expiring contract into a strong player or two.
mrparker
February 24, 2010
Why does everyone insist that Kobe is taller than an nba 6’6(i.e 6’4.5)?
Michael
February 24, 2010
Especially when he has admitted he is 6’4.75.
People also don’t realise Wades 6’4 measurement was barefoot, while most players list their height in their sneakers. MJ, Wade and Kobe are all about the same height.
I also have no idea where you get the notion that Kobe will be around another 8 or 9 years. 2 or 3 is realistic but 9?
Italian Stallion
February 24, 2010
Wade’s style has caused him to get beat up a lot by aggressively going to the hoop. That’s why he gets hurt so often. That’s going to catch up with him eventually (if it hasn’t begun already).
John,
Not to mention that Gallo and Chandler are 21 and 22 respectively and everyone agrees that’s a below peak age. So if they improved, the Knicks would have a terrific starting 5. After that, they have to tap the “D” league for a few warm bodies. lol
antony
February 25, 2010
dberri,
whenever discussing PER you always mention its similarity to gamescore. I was wondering what the correlation between PER and wp is?
glamour123
February 25, 2010
yep you can check those measurements on draftexpress.com.
6.475 212 and 6.7 percent body fat.
Guy built like that shouldn’t get hurt so much
diehardNFFLbarnone
February 25, 2010
@ glamour123 – That has to do with his style of play.
diehardNFFLbarnone
February 25, 2010
I was wondering if you would do a post on why the Nets are still struggling to win?