Before the season started Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated.com offered the following assessment of the Milwaukee Bucks: Milwaukee lost its second- and third-leading scorers (Richard Jefferson and Charlie Villanueva), while its No. 1 scorer (Michael Redd) and top rebounder (Andrew Bogut) are returning from major injuries. And it’s possible that part-time starting point guard Ramon Sessions could walk as a free agent. Coach Scott Skiles will keep the defense playing at a high level, but points will be hard to come by.
Mannix ranked the Bucks as the 28th best team in the NBA. In other words, Mannix thought that only two teams (the Nets and Kings) should be ranked below the Bucks.
Mannix was not alone in this assessment. In the NBA preview of ESPN the Magazine (insider access required), the Bucks were listed as the 14th best team in the Eastern Conference. Like Mannix, only the Nets were ranked lower by the experts at ESPN.
After 56 games, though, the Bucks’ record stands at 28-28. And Milwaukee’s efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) of 0.6 suggests that this team is slightly above average.
Certainly Milwaukee isn’t great. But why isn’t this team awful?
It’s easy to focus on Brandon Jennings, who currently leads Milwaukee in scoring and shot attempts. Jennings was selected with the 10th pick in the 2009 NBA draft. But it was unclear how good he would be as a rookie. Jennings skipped college and did not exactly post amazing numbers in his one year in Europe.
At the start of the season it looked like teams had a made a mistake in passing on Mr. Jennings. But after an amazing start his overall productivity has slipped quite a bit (despite ranking second among all rookies in scoring). As Table One reveals, after 56 games Jennings has posted a 0.059 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] and currently only ranks 6th on the team in Wins Produced. Although not bad for a rookie, it is not enough production to transform a bad team into the average squad that currently resides in Milwaukee. In sum, Mr. Jennings is not the answer.
Table One: The Milwaukee Bucks after 56 games in 2009-10
For an answer, let’s look at the five players who are producing more than Jennings. Of Milwaukee’s 29.2 Wins Produced, 24.3 can be traced to the play of Andrew Bogut, Carlos Delfino, Ersan Ilyasova, Luc Mbah a Moute, and Luke Ridnour. Of these four, the only surprise is Ilyasova. Back in 2005, the Bucks selected the 18-year old Ilyasova in the second round of the draft. He debuted in 2006-07, and as one can see, played quite poorly. In 2009-10 – at the age of 22 – Ilyasova is now an above average power forward. With the addition of Ilyasova the Bucks now have an impressive frontcourt. Bogut is clearly the most productive player on the team at center. And at the two forward spots the team has Ilyasova, Delfino, and Mbah a Moute.
At guard, though, Milwaukee has problems. The only above average performer is Ridnour. It’s possible for Salmons to offer something, although that hasn’t happened yet.
Obviously a team that is hovering around the average mark has weaknesses. But these weaknesses are not the focus on this discussion. What we wish to understand is why the Bucks were underestimated before the season started.
When we look at what this team’s veterans did in the past we see a team that could have expected to win 25 of their first 56 games. In other words, even if Ilyasova hadn’t improved this team wouldn’t have ranked among the league’s worse. Again we wonder why this wasn’t seen.
One suspects that the problem lies in the evaluation of players like Delfino, Ridnour, and Mbah a Moute. The former was quite productive – from a Wins Produced perspective — in both 2006-07 and 2007-08. And both Ridnour and Mbah a Moute were above average last season. None of these players, though, are scorers. Given the importance placed on scoring totals, we shouldn’t be surprised that the Bucks were undervalued.
For more on this topic – and anything else related to the Milwaukee Bucks — one should read the Courtside Analyst (formally Bucks Diary). Ty Willihnganz consistently offers NBA analysis that is well worth reading.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
jamin
February 25, 2010
It has to do with the great play of the big aussie Andrew Bogut!
Oh and Salmons is now their leading scorer (after 5 games) and is averaging over 6 and a half FT attempts per game, something the bucks have been severely lacking
GO BUCKS!
Johnny Y.
February 25, 2010
bogut has especially been on a tear in recent weeks
Italian Stallion
February 25, 2010
Yea, I agree that Bogut is the key. He is rapidly becoming one of the premier Cs in the league.
Italian Stallion
February 25, 2010
Also, their defense is very solid.
AK1984
February 25, 2010
So far this season, the combination of an efficient low-post scorer/defensive anchor in the pivot (i.e., Andrew Bogut) and a defensive-minded head coach (i.e., Scott Skiles) has done wonders for the Milwaukee Bucks.
Oh, and when watching 2010 NBA Draft prospects, Cole Aldrich has the potential to be strikingly similar to Bogut at the professional level. That’s a mighty lofty comparison, indeed.
Regarding front office executives and scouts who are working for soon to be lottery teams — particularly the ones that lack a two-way low-post presence — they should focus their attention heavily on Aldrich.
Bill
February 25, 2010
There is something I do not understand. Mbah a Moute is listed with a WP48 of .146. after 56 games. But in the mid season review, after 41 games, he was listed as having a WP48 of .088.
In just 15 game he raised his season average to .146? That would mean that over the last 15 games he has been producing at a clip of about .275, which puts him up with the elite players in the league. Is this possible?
todd2
February 26, 2010
Off topic, I know, the Celts have given up 100+ points in three straight games (Rondo played 45 minutes in last night’s blowout). Is this the beginning of a collapse?
Tom Mandel
February 26, 2010
Look forward to Dave’s response about Luc’s numbers, as many wp numbers have looked strange this year and seemed to be quite different depending on where I saw them quoted. E.g. Jamison is at .154 on the mid-season table but Dave called him at .108 somewhere else more recent (can’t put my finger on location, sorry)
dberri
February 26, 2010
Yes, Mbah a Moute has posted a 0.271 WP48 since the all-star break. Now his overall numbers this season are quite close to what they were last season.
dberri
February 26, 2010
BTW, Ty Willihnganz just addressed the play of Mbah a Moute at the Courtside Analyst.
Italian Stallion
February 26, 2010
Has anyone studied the impact of highly volatile play on wins?
If Mbah a Moute has played so much better since the All Star break, you have to wonder whether that produces more or less wins as playing at a steadier level throughout the season.
Westy
February 26, 2010
Speaking of the distinction between “scorers” and “non-scorers”, any thoughts on this article, Dave?
Random Thoughts on the Talent Pool
Italian Stallion
February 26, 2010
Westy,
I thought that article was spot on in many ways, but especially in highlighting the fact that the role players that can be valuable to a team need good scorers around them. Scorers are a requirement for successful basketball. That is the basic reason why multi-skilled, reasonably efficient, high usage scorers are so highly valued.
Sam Cohen
February 26, 2010
IS- I’m pretty sure that volatile play is more beneficial to players and teams that aren’t as good as their opponents.
Quick example at the team level: Team A scores 100 points every game. Team B scores 101 points every game. If they play each other, Team B will win every single game. But if Team A alternates scoring 90 or 110 points each game (thus keeping its average at 100 points) and plays Team B (which continues to score 101 points every game) multiple times, then Team A and Team B will split the games between them.
(If I’m remembering correctly, Dean Oliver briefly talks about this scenario in Basketball on Paper)
Ravenred
February 27, 2010
Thank you for this article. The improvement of Bogut and Ilyasova and the stabilisation (or as WP48 would have it, fairly massive improvement) of LRMAM have overcome a reasonably significant drop-off in the play of a premium WP producer during the first half in Luke Ridnour. Now if Brandon Jennings could just improve his shooting efficiency to slightly below average…
khandor
March 2, 2010
Reasons why the Bucks have been solid this season:
– Jennings has been better than originally advertised
– Jennings and Ridnour give them 48 min of fairly solid PG play
– losing a 1 dimensional Michael Redd has increased their overall athleticism, defense, and rebounding, at the OG position
– adding Delfino to their mix at the wing positions has been an “upgrade” overall, in comparison with M-Redd
– adding a sniper like Stack, who can also do other things on the court, is exactly what they needed, in comparison with M-Redd
– adding a solid two-way player like Salmons is exactly what they needed, in comparison with M-Redd
– recently shifting LRMAM to the PF position … at which he is best … has solidified their rotation
– adding an improved version of Ilyasova this season has given them a solid, two-way twosome at the PF position
– a relatively healthy Bogut has made a big difference
– using K-Thomas as Bogut’s primary back-up has solidified their rotation with a solid veteran
– the presence of a solid defensive-minded head coach like Skiles
John Hammond knows what he’s doing, when it comes to assessing NBA talent with a fairly high degree of accuracy.
Allen Mathis
March 17, 2010
No comment on the addition of rejuvenated Stackhouse off the bench. Delfino’s unheralded. Great notice of the rise of Illyosova!