According to the NY Post, Al Harrington wants to join the New Jersey Nets next season. (HT: ESPN Rumor Central)
Knicks forward Al Harrington often wears a ballcap with a scripted “NJ.”
The former star at St. Patrick’s High in Elizabeth, who lives in Edgewater, said he’s not trying to send out any subliminal messages — but told The Post he definitely would be interested in signing with his hometown Nets this summer, especially since they will play in Newark, 10 miles from Elizabeth, the next two seasons.
“If they had interest in me, I’d take a strong look at that,” Harrington, a free-agent-to-be, told The Post.
“It’s still the city. It’s still home. I’d rather play at the Garden, but I’d play in Newark, too.”
According to a source, the Wizards, Blazers and Bulls are expected to have interest in Harrington this summer.
And the NY Post also reports that the feeling is mutual:
Team president Rod Thorn admits the Nets will have to look everywhere to find players after this nightmare season concludes and at least six player contracts expire.
And current Knicks forward Al Harrington hopes they look his way.
Of course – as the article indicates — the Nets would prefer LeBron James. But as the article notes, LeBron is likely to look elsewhere. Therefore (continuing with the story)…
maybe the Nets, with $23.3 million to spend, will get lucky with the second tier-type free agents that include Harrington, 6-foot-9, a 14.1 career scorer who stated he would be open to signing with the Nets.
The notion is not far-fetched. Multiple team sources agreed Harrington “would be someone to consider” during this summer’s free agency.
Thorn declined comment — teams are not permitted to discuss players under contract to other teams. But he didn’t do anything to squash the idea.
“We’ll look at everyone. At the end of the day, we’ll have six or seven players under contract,” Thorn said. “We’re going to have to fill out our roster. We’re going to have to get players somewhere.”
So if we are following the logic of the NY Post, the Nets will first look at LeBron. If LeBron passes, then the Nets might get “lucky” and land Al Harrington? Really?
Okay, let’s look at what Al Harrington has done this year.
Table One: The New York Knicks after 68 games in 2009-10
As Table One reports, Harrington’s WP48 mark is currently in the negative range. And his performance last year was also in the negative range. In fact, Harrington was the “Most Overrated” performer last year.
The story that Harrington is not a very productive player was originally told in this forum back in 2006 (see HERE and HERE and HERE and HERE). But Harrington can score so he keeps finding work in the NBA.
One would think, though, that there would be quite a few players on New Jersey’s wish list between LeBron and Harrington. For example, David Lee – the most productive player on the Knicks — might want to stay in the area. In fact one wonders, what are the odds that
a. Lee departs the New York area and
b. both the Nets and Knicks fail to land a free agent as productive as Lee?
The odds on (a) are not clear. But if (a) happens, the odds on (b) don’t look bad. Especially if the Nets are serious about Harrington.
One last note on the Knicks. Looking back on Table One we see that the Knicks are just about where we would think given the numbers posted by the team’s veterans last year. Players in the NBA tend to be consistent, but the Knicks players seem to be taking this to an extreme. And this is surprising given how much turnover there has been on the team’s roster.
Such consistency highlights the basic strategy both the Knicks and Nets should pursue this summer. If either team wants to improve it needs to bring in more productive players. Although it’s possible for players to improve, this is not something a team should count on.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Italian Stallion
March 19, 2010
Most serious Knicks fans are counting the days until Harrington is out of NY.
The Knicks are badly lacking in rebounding, shot blocking, interior defense, and high efficiency inside scoring like many traditional PFs tend to give a team.
Harrington is on the perimeter a lot, kills ball movement as soon as he touches it, makes a lot of horrible decisions, and doesn’t give a team any of the things the Knicks need.
I can’t see how he can help any team playing as a PF and don’t think he can cover SFs.
The Nets would be insane to take him given that they have a few young pieces, a lot of cap room, and an almost certain high pick. IMO the Nets have been managed very well through this painful rebuild process (way better than the Knicks) and they aren’t going to get stupid now.
jbrett
March 19, 2010
One could argue that a player in your lineup with a WP48 of -.0009 is almost, but not quite, as good as playing 4-on-5. Whether the Knicks would do as well if they just left Harrington on the bench and played a man short is questionable, but the idea alone makes his impending free-agency windfall hysterically funny. Anyone want to predict which idiot GM wins this prize? Dr. Berri, has Dumars come to his senses in time?
jbrett
March 19, 2010
Can’t believe I missed the numbers for Eddie House! It’s a really small sample, but whaaaaa…? I’ll throw out some theories:
A. A strong argument for team chemistry
B. Some coaches DO affect production
C. “I play for the Knicks now; just shoot me in the head”
Robert O'Malley
March 19, 2010
Stories like this make fans of teams with a lot of cap room tremble. Being a Wizards fan, I can completely see us signing Al Harrington, along with Josh Howard. Even though it makes no basketball sense.
On another top, I’ve been noticing Jrue Holiday has been ballin’ recently. At the end of the season a story comparing all the rookie point guards would be really interesting.
Robert O'Malley
March 19, 2010
another topic*
Italian Stallion
March 20, 2010
>>On another top, I’ve been noticing Jrue Holiday has been ballin’ recently. At the end of the season a story comparing all the rookie point guards would be really interesting.<<
That would be a good idea, but the season should probably be broken up into 2-3 pieces in addition to overall because some players are developing at different rates.
Even Toney Douglas for the Knicks has been playing excellent ball at both ends of the floor since he started getting a lot of minutes.
Mark
March 20, 2010
>>One could argue that a player in your lineup with a WP48 of -.0009 is almost, but not quite, as good as playing 4-on-5.<<
I think this is a misconception of what a negative WP48 means. Not playing a small forward would mean that your small forward is posting a raw win score of zero. I picked small forward because this table (http://www.wagesofwins.com/DurantMelo03030910.html) from a few weeks ago has the average small forward PAWS48. So the PAWS48 for not playing a small forward this season would be -7.3. I'm pretty sure that would be a WP48 of a much larger negative number than -0.009.
Now if a player is posting a negative raw win score, which could be done if the player never scores, never rebounds, misses some shots, commits some fouls and commits some turnovers, then perhaps the team would be better off playing 4-on-5.
Josh Smith
March 20, 2010
Mark,
I think you are quite mistaken. I’m with you that an average small forward posts a win score of 7.3, and that choosing not to play a small forward will generate a win score of 7.3 below AVERAGE. However, average WP is 0.100, not 0. I am fairly certain that a player who avoided all stats would have a WP of 0 (before team adjustment, if such a player, or lack of player really hurt team defense then the team adjustment would push him to the negative range.
In summary, you confused average level and zero level. Dr. Berri’s model, in a somewhat concerning result, does suggest that some teams would be better off playing 4-on-5. Many models break down on extreme cases though this one seems to rate an awful lot of players as making the team worse in absolute (not just relative) terms.
Mark
March 20, 2010
Take a look at this post:
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/10/22/
Notice in “Table One: Toronto Raptors in 2008-09” linked in that post that Andrea Bargnani had a -0.006 WP48.
Notice later in the article under the section “More on Bosh and Bargnani” where it talks about Bargnani’s WS48. It says
“Fans of Bargnani, though, have argued that he played much better in the second half of the 2008-09 season. If we compare Bargnani in the first 41 games of 2008-09 to the second 41 games (i.e. split the season exactly in half), then it doesn’t appear Bargnani got any better. In the first half his Wins Score per 48 minutes [WS48] was 8.1. In the second half he posted a 7.6 WS48. To put that in perspective, an average power forward posts a 10.4 WS48; so Bargnani was very below average in both the first and second half of the 2008-09 season (for a power forward).”
Notice that the WS48 is way above zero, but Bargnani has a negative WP48. If the raptors had removed Bargnani in 2008-2009 and replaced him with “Bob the statless” who collected no stats (so posted a WS48 of zero), then the WP48 for Bob’s WP48 would be much more negative than -0.006.
mrparker
March 20, 2010
Looking forward to the profs answer on this comment debate
dberri
March 20, 2010
I would encourage everyone to read Appendix A of Stumbling on Wins (yes, I am encouraging people to buy the book). I think once this is read (and understood) you will see that a player who does nothing on the court is really, really negative.
The real issue is how badly a team will lose. A team of negative players can expect to lose every game. A team of players who do nothing can expect to lose every game by a very wide margin.
Italian Stallion
March 21, 2010
Guys,
Not sure if I’m misunderstanding the conversation a bit, but Harrington plays a lot more PF than SF for the Knicks. He has even been playing some C lately because the Knicks are so depleted in the middle.
His offensive game actually resembles a SF more than a PF, but he can’t guard quicker SFs.
Filipe Furtado
March 21, 2010
I can’t see Harrington receiving any kind of big money contract this summer. He is a scorer, alright, but his reputation at this point is just to negative. He is a backup in a 30 win team. The Knicks fans hate him. The notion that he is not a good player is known around league fans. I can’t see a team showing him as consolation prize on the FA market (Rudy Gay will get big money that way this summer not Harrington). I question wether Harrington even demands the full MLE at this point, I don’t think he has more market valuie than Travis Outlaw or Udonis Haslem anymore.