Back to Stumbling on Wins Promotion Week

Posted on April 15, 2010 by


Okay, the third contest didn’t work out so well.  To refresh everyone’s memory this was the contest: The season ends on Wednesday.  Which player — from all the games that will be played — will post the highest Position Adjusted Win Score on Wednesday?  Please give the name and your guess for Position Adjusted Win Score.   The person who guesses the name and comes the closest to guessing the correct PAWS will win a signed copy of Stumbling on Wins.

Here were the guesses with the corresponding PAWS from Wednesday’s game:

  • Stephen Curry: 18.2
  • Kevin Durant: 12.7
  • Joakim Noah: 6.5
  • Dwight Howard: 6.4
  • Jason Kidd: 5.7
  • Deron Williams: 5.7
  • David Lee: 1.4
  • Dirk Nowitzki: -3.6
  • Marcus Camby: DNP
  • Manu Ginobili: DNP
  • Chris Paul: DNP
  • Dwyane Wade: DNP

Of these guesses, Stephen Curry was the top player.  But although this was an amazing guess, Curry was not the winning guess.  To win this contest you needed to guess… DeJuan Blair.  Blair posted a 19.6 PAWS on Wednesday night. 

So unlike the first two contests – where a winner was found very quickly – our third contest will not have a winner.   This means we need another contest.  And here it is:   

There are four NBA playoff games on Sunday involving Orlando, Charlotte, Oklahoma City, LA Lakers, San Antonio, Dallas, Portland, and Phoenix.  Which player – in these games – will post the highest PAWS?  Please give a name and also your guess for the player’s PAWS in Sunday’s game.  Here is a hint:  It is not going to be Brandon Roy.

Whoever get this right (assuming somebody does) will get an autographed copy of Stumbling on Wins.   

In addition to this contest, let me remind everyone that Financial Times Press – the publisher of Stumbling on Wins – has essentially declared this week “Stumbling on Wins Promotion Week.”   When you purchase Stumbling on Wins from 4/12 – 4/18, you’re entitled to access to a free bonus article – more than 2,000 words in length — on the NBA Draft.  Simply forward a copy of your dated receipt to  A PDF version of the article will be forwarded to your inbox.

And for those looking to more chances to win a free copy, let me remind everyone that each of the following blogs – via a variety of contests – are scheduled to give away multiple copies of our book this week. Some of these contests are certainly still going on, so click around and see if you can win.  

48 Minutes of Hell

8 Points, 9 Seconds

Advanced NFL Stats from Brian Burke

At the Hive


Cavs the Blog

Celtics Hub


Courtside Analyst

Cowbell Kingdom

Daily Thunder

Denver Stiffs

Hardwood Paroxysm

Harvard Sports Analysis Collective



Hot Hot Hoops

Howlin’ T-Wolf







Shades of Blue

The Painted Area

The Two Man Game


Truth About It

Valley of the Suns

Warriors World

And once again, we would like to thank all of these blogs for participating in this promotion.  Its been interesting to see all the contests people have created to give away copies of our book.

– DJ

 The WoW Journal Comments Policy

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.