If the Cavaliers lose to Boston, does that mean LeBron goes to New York? The New York Daily News says yes. Darren Rovell – of CNBC – disagrees. Although no one knows what LeBron is really thinking about his impending free agency (at least, no one who is willing to talk to the media), Rovell’s arguments about the money involved has considerable merits. As Rovell notes
- LeBron will get maximum NBA money in New York or Cleveland
- LeBron and the Cavaliers appear on TV far more often than the Knicks. Why? The Cavaliers win and the Knicks are losers.
- Endorsement deals are not just driven by market-size but by winning.
Yes, the Knicks will win more with LeBron (a point made in the Wall Street Journal a few days ago). But right now, the Cavaliers supporting cast trumps what the Knicks can offer (in other words, LeBron wins even more often in Cleveland). And if that doesn’t change, Rovell argues (and I agree) LeBron is better off playing for someone besides the Knicks. Certainly in terms of the emerging Chinese market (a point Rovell also makes), the money is probably going to flow to an NBA champion. It will not flow to a really good player toiling away for a less-than-great team in New York.
So maybe Knicks fans shouldn’t root for the Celtics. At this point, it looks like New Yorkers are sacrificing their beliefs as sports fans for a very unlikely potential return.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
Alien Human Hybrid
May 12, 2010
“Kobe is huge in China. LeBron? Not so much. It’s why Nike unveiled its Hyperdunk shoe at the Beijing Games on Kobe. Why do they revere Kobe so much more than LeBron? Championships.” -Darren Rovell
It is this kind of circular argument that is the very antithesis of the empirically-based, reasoned discourse we expect from this blog in general, and the good professor in particular. In effect, it is like saying the reason Kobe is better than Lebron is championships, and using the conclusion as evidence. In other words, we need evidence to evaluate his assertion
In sum, if you are going to mention “the merits”, please also be as forthcoming with the faults, particularly when they are so glaring.
dberri
May 12, 2010
Not sure I agree Rovell’s argument is incorrect. He is arguing that endorsements in China are driven by a player winning an NBA championship. Kobe had done this. LeBron has not.
Now you could argue that is not what is driving Chinese endorsements. But the argument does seem plausible.
I would also add… Rovell is not arguing that Kobe is better than LeBron. He is just arguing that people perceive Kobe is better because he has been on teams that won a title.
Dre
May 12, 2010
Dr. Berri,
Missing from your list of common attacks is the “Mental Toughness” or “Wins when it matters” argument. I.E Kobe is better than Lebron because he wins when it matters and The Celtics are beating the Cavs because they have more mental toughness.
Obviously these crop up a lot in the playoffs. I don’t ever hear mention of Boston’s second round exit, 7 game series with the Hawks their championship year or Kobe’s two defeats in the finals by the same people saying the above argument.
Alvy
May 12, 2010
Just about every good player has had a terrible performance in an important playoff game. It happens, but the manner in which LeBron played in game five was just very unusual, almost on purpose it seemed. The box score says something, but the performance itself was just difficult to understand.
Ignore Knicks fans, and consider Heat fans instead.
John Giagnorio
May 12, 2010
I do not like the article linked at all. Rovell’s “analysis” is beyond lazy. First, the Knicks will definitely win with Lebron. That alone negates almost every point Rovell makes. Second, if China is so important – and it very well may be – how about providing some, any evidence? Not that it matters much, since Lebron will almost certainly win no matter where he goes.
On a somewhat related note, the building backlash against Lebron seems oh so familiar – isn’t it what got the Yankees one of the best players in baseball for free? All these sportswriters supposedly want him to stay in Cleveland, and yet they’ll gladly write the “he’s not a winner” and the “he doesn’t care” articles that make it more likely he’ll bail for NY.
John Giagnorio
May 12, 2010
Here’s hoping Lebron James ends up in New York and that Chris Paul joins him after a similarly stupid backlash in the next few years.
Brian Lauvray
May 12, 2010
I can vouch for the veracity of Chicago sports media barfing out ludicrous ideas of ‘Bron bolting to Chi. It’s hysterical (in the most literal sense).
Anon
May 12, 2010
As someone who lives in China, I can assure you that Lebron and Kobe are both extremely popular here. No one cares that Lebron hasn’t won a championship.
So I would tend to dismiss any argument that says Lebron isn’t huge in China as uninformed.
palamida
May 12, 2010
Alvy, from a subjective point of view Lebron didn’t appear to be himself. The “tanking” he has been accused of today seems like a stretch.
There has been a report about a week ago that Lebron and the Cavs are actually downplaying his elbow injury – “can’t lift anything heavier than a basketball”.
Today, there was a report in Realgm that stated that LBJ actually suffers from a torn ligament in his elbow and he elected not to go the surgery path but rather attempt to play through the pain. That item further reported that he couldn’t get a shot (shot to the muscle) to ease his sufferings since he can only get one every ten days. If those reports are even partially true that would explain his performance (especially him just wandering around the court at times, not even looking to attack), and would certainly be a more “respectable” explanation for his lack of effort.
If that’s the case, I commend him for attempting to play through the pain, especially since it’s my personal opinion that Lebron has decided he was leaving the Cavs for some time now, regardless of the current Playoff run, meaning- with or without a ring, making this playoffs his last chance of bringing the championship to his home state.
However if that is the case I think it’s outrageous that the Cavs are not going public about the extent of this injury and that the NBA is allowing them to do so. It’s similar to KG last season, and that whole funky “knee sprain” business, whereas everyone knew that in fact,KG had a torn knee ligament.
I can see why Boston, and the NBA elected to hide that information: Hard to market the C’s attempt to repeat without KG, but that’s dishonest and isn’t just an ethics issue – consumers are buying tickets, sometimes- in advance; It’s downright fraudulent!
pmpballer
May 12, 2010
Having been born in taiwan and frequently visiting asia, i think its more a matter of what games are being broadcasted internationally. Obviously teams like the lakers and knicks because of the media markets are more likely to be broadcasted.
On a side note, I have a question. For example, Carlos Boozer is an extremely efficient player and his stats reflect this. Is there some sort of correlation with him having a hard time with a player like Pau Gasol who dominated him in this past matchup and how poorly he performed relative to how he usually does? I see this all over the nba, especially in the playoffs. Other examples include rajon rondo dominating mo williams, vince carter vs joe johnson. In all these matchups one player significantly outplayed the other. Wonder if there was any way to forcast this kind of increase or decrease in productivity. I know the sample size is small though.
John Giagnorio
May 12, 2010
I’m not surprised Rovell is wrong about Lebron James not being popular in China. Seems likely nothing in that article is correct.
palamida
May 12, 2010
John, I have no idea what’s the extent of LBJ’s popularity in China. If your comment is based on Anon’s comment : “As someone who lives in China, I can assure you that Lebron and Kobe are both extremely popular here. No one cares that Lebron hasn’t won a championship”, with all due respect, that’s not exactly evidence.
Popularity is one thing, but we’re talking about revenues, and those can be tracked and measured. Who sells more Jerseys? Which teams attract higher TV ratings? other merchandise?
And what are these numbers in China compared to the States?
I’m sure that data is available (at least in part) somewhere, and perhaps adequate research preceded the writing of the article?
Maybe not, but one man’s “testimony” and “assurances” surely aren’t enough to dub the basic notion as wrong.
No disrespect, Anon, and like I said I have no idea “whose right”, but perhaps the man did his homework?
Innocent till proven guilty :P
Phil
May 12, 2010
T-Mac is popular is China; winning can’t be that important.
Alien Human Hybrid
May 12, 2010
Many of the posters have hit upon the critical point- Rovell gives no data with which to back up his assertions, yet he feels totally comfortable in stating his opinion as fact.
It does not measure up to the standards of this blog, nor does it substantively aid Prof. Berri’s meta narrative regarding data driving one’s conclusions. Instead it is yet another example of the phenomenon we critique, and as such it is exactly the kind of article that should never have been praised, much less linked to.
John Giagnorio
May 13, 2010
Wow palamida, you sure like typing :)
I don’t think someone writing under a banner that says “Sports Biz” deserves the benefit of the doubt on much of anything.
palamida
May 13, 2010
John, a point well stated :p
brett
May 13, 2010
pmpballer- Success in NBA basketball is highly dependent on a team’s ability to find mismatches and exploit them. That’s why pick-and-roll and isolation are probably the two most popular plays in the NBA. In a playoff series, well-coached teams with smart players will repeatedly exploit these mismatches until the opposing team makes adjustments. In this case, the teams simply didn’t make adjustments (Hawks) or they didn’t have the personnel to make the right adjustments (Jazz). I’d say that’s the main reason why Gasol and Carter dominated Boozer and Johnson game after game. Both players also struggled against these teams to some degree in the regular season, but there are many other situational factors to account for regular season performance. Also, there just isn’t enough time or knowledge to make major strategic or tactical adjustments between regular season games, so mismatches are often not properly exploited until the playoffs.
kevin
May 13, 2010
If I were an NBA superstar, I’d avoid the Knicks like the plague. That franchise has to be the biggest underachiever in professional sports. They can never, ever get it right. Even when they get it right in the short term, like lucking into Ewing, they get it wrong longterm- failing to build an adequate supporting cast.
If you want to play for an F-up, play for the Knicks.
Erin
May 19, 2010
http://weljon.wordpress.com