Ty Ahmad-Taylor is the CEO of FanFeedr, a real-time sports service, and tweets under @tyahma. He was a journalist at the New York Times at the beginning of his career, and has been involved in media and technology for the last 15 years in Silicon Valley, Comcast, and MTV. He is a San Francisco native, but lives in New York, and thus “supports” the Warriors and the Knicks.
Parts of New York might be set on fire if the Knicks don’t land LeBron James and some mix of Chris Bosh/Dwyane Wade/even David Lee.
There are several other teams who are looking to also add some blend of the above players, as well, and thus the opportunity for the Knicks isn’t just about who can pay the most, but which players want to come to New York.
Joe Johnson has openly spoken of his affection for Gotham, and Carlos Boozer may be another piece. The two of them together, however, will very much feel like a lost opportunity, as the city has been all LeBron, all the time.
Table One: Top 15 at Each Position in 2009-10
However, viewed through the lens of Wins Produced (see Table One), the opportunities for the Knicks beyond LeBron and Wade are actually quite excellent; counter to standard thinking that has focused on points scored to the detriment of offensive and defensive efficiency. What follows is a look at the most efficient choices for the Knicks (not named LBJ and Dwyane). For clarity, and economic reality, I am not looking at RFA (restricted free-agents), just UFAs (unrestricted free-agents.) RFAs usually command a premium or weird contracts to dissuade their current team from matching.
An additional bit of background: the Knicks are proposing Toney Douglas at the point, Wilson Chandler at the 2/3, Danilo Gallinari at the 3, and that is pretty much it. They are, more likely than not, going to part ways with David Lee, their most efficient player, leaving them with Omar-the-Tent-Maker-sized holes at the 4 and 5, and shakiness at the point.
On the point guard front, the appetizers — to torture the metaphor introduced in the headline — aren’t very appetizing. UFAs include Nate Robinson, Steve Blake and Luke Ridnour. Of those, the latter is the most efficient with 5.4 wins produced and a 0.148 WP48 last year. He is certainly not worth maximum dollars. Next.
Though Knicks’ fans in the Tri-state area may collectively groan at the tweener that is Joe Johnson, especially given his latent awareness that there was a series with the Magic taking place this past week. Still, he is actually quite efficient. Like #3-in-the-league efficient in terms of Wins Produced. Like this will inspire-hate-mail-better-than-Kobe-efficient (Please just use one of the arguments posted here under “jbrett codes”). Jesus Shuttlesworth is not that far off, with 7.6 wins produced last year, but at that point, the Knicks should keep Chandler at the 2 and call it a day.
Small forward: after the King, it is slim pickings and the first UFA is Travis Outlaw. Yep, well, okay. Gallinari is the starter. Move on, nothing to see here. Outlaw was good two years ago and then caught Eddy Curry disease.
Like the missing ozone above Australia, you have the 4/5 next. There is Marcus Camby, who actually plays the 5, not the four, but he is going back to Portland. And #2 on the depth chart is Carlos Boozer, with 16.2 Wins Produced. That is 6.1 better than Amare Stoudemire. (Please just use one of the arguments posted here under “jbrett codes”).
But it is only 0.7 better than David Lee, who only has a $10MM cap hold for the Knicks. That is to say, replacing Lee with Boozer might only generate an additional win, and Lee is younger than Boozer (most players peak around 24 or 25 years of age, as we know from Stumbling on Wins.) The two are not directly comparable because Lee played against centers most of the time, and thus had some drag because of the greater average WP in the center category. We will get back to this option shortly.
What the Knicks should not do, under any circumstance, is try for Stoudemire (RFA). He is a full five wins less productive than either Lee or Boozer.
In the center category, you have Chris Bosh, who is actually a four. And then people too wince-inducing to consider. The Knicks are sort of stuck here, and Earl Barron is not the answer. They could continue to play Lee or Boozer out of position, but it just doesn’t work against teams with height/strength, or, heaven help you, both. What we should be clear about: Boozer or Lee are more productive than Bosh.
What this boils down to: if the Knicks can sign Boozer and Joe Johnson for $22MM combined, they can go over the cap to sign Lee (including his $10MM cap hold) to keep him in the fold. They will get destroyed by Orlando and the Lakers, but generally speaking, they will be much more competitive than they have been. And that will be true immediately, even though neither new player looks nor plays like BronBron or Wade.
If we take the worse case scenario (Boozer and Johnson won’t take haircuts to that level), the best option, in terms of Wins Produced and long-term productivity, and given what the Knicks have already, is to sign Boozer (who generated 6.2 more wins than Johnson). This gives them someone at the five/four to pair with Lee, and allows Douglas, Chandler and Gallinari to play at their “natural” positions.
Your groans are noted, but when the season starts, this is the best opportunity for the Knicks if they cannot land either of the top-two free agents and to improve their win totals. In terms of wins produced, re-signing Lee is a better option than almost all of the non-Dwayne Wade/James free agents.
– Ty Ahmad-Taylor
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Wages of Wins Journal 
dberri
May 12, 2010
This is the first post from a member of the Wages of Wins network. Ty has volunteered to cover the Knicks. He presented an idea a few days ago that he thought he could write without the automated numbers (Andres says these will be up on Saturday).
I told all volunteers that I would be sending out an e-mail with some thoughts and instructions. That e-mail will go out tomorrow (I think). What Ty has done, though, gives everyone a good idea of what I think we are looking for in these posts.
One last note and this is for Ty. My e-mail at home let’s me see your e-mails. But it won’t let me respond. Not sure why that is.
Ty Ahmad-Taylor
May 12, 2010
Dr. Berri, thank you for the opportunity, and I look forward to the posts produced by ILikeFlowers and ItalianStallion, two of your top commenters.
Italian Stallion
May 12, 2010
Ty,
Great job.
I really enjoyed it.
As a Knicks addict, I’ll add my 2 cents. ;-)
1. I also think Lee will the best value among the PFs . He should be resigned in the event they can’t land both Wade/Lebron (lol). In fact, if they land one of the two they should still try to convince that player that Lee should be resigned.
2. If they do resign Lee, I don’t think they should sign another PF to a huge expensive long term contract (someone like Boozer). That’s not going to solve any long term problems and may create new ones.
What they really need is a long shot blocking defensive presence in the middle that will produce a lot more wins than Jeffries for a similar price (or a tad more).
Camby was the perfect option, but since he’s gone I’ve been thinking about Ty Thomas. He’s not an UFA and he’s not a C, but he might be available. He’ll provide what the Knicks need in the middle at an affordable price. They could always use someone like over the long haul too because he’s not going to be a bankroll buster.
3. I wouldn’t mind getting Joe Johnson. I think he would actually excel in D’Antoni’s system with other excellent outside shooters on the floor. But IMHO he’s nowhere near a max contract player. I’m tickled to death that he played so poorly in the Orlando series and created some problems with the Atlanta fans because now he may become available at a price that makes some sense (10m-12m)
4. The biggest question mark is PG. There aren’t any high quality PGs available and the Knicks blew some opportunties to get one in last year’s draft (not Jennings).
I think the Knicks need a specific type of PG.
D’Antoni’s offensive system is designed to spread the floor and play pick and roll. For the pick and roll to work, you need a PG that is a good outside shooter (including from beyond the arc in this system). Douglas appears to be a good enough shooter (and may get better), but he doesn’t seem to possess the other skills required to be a top PG yet. Let’s hope he’s the gym rat they say he is.
5. We should keep in mind that since the Knicks have all that cap space they could trade for a C or other players and take on more contract than they give up.
6. We should keep in mind that Curry comes off the cap next year. So his contract many become a trade asset at some point this year.
pkay
May 12, 2010
The Knicks are a model of Keynesian economics gone horribly wrong. Fiscal stimulus in the form trading draft picks for quick infusions of talent has not only mortgaged the franchise’s future, but sends a strong signal to the marketplace of talent that The Garden, despite its historical importance, is to be avoided at all costs.
Italian Stallion
May 12, 2010
pkay,
“The Knicks are a model of Keynesian economics gone horribly wrong. Fiscal stimulus in the form trading draft picks for quick infusions of talent has not only mortgaged the franchise’s future…”
LMAO!
As a fan of Ludwig von Mises and Austrian economics I tend to agree with you about that last Jeffries/picks trade.
That last trade may prove to have been very stupid. If they simply waited one year Jeffries would have come off the cap anyway, they’d still have Hill to develop or trade, they’d still have the 2012 pick, and they wouldn’t have to worry about the 2011 pick swap.
All we can do is hope that the Knicks land some big fish this summer that would not have been available in the future and needed all of that extra cap space NOW to pull it off.
James
May 12, 2010
Good post. It will be very interesting to see how the offseason will unfold for the knicks.
arturo
May 12, 2010
Ty,
Loved the article. Agree that Lee is the best value at PF but I don’t think there is any chance that the Knicks keep him. I’m betting he (and maybe T-mac??) will be the centerpiece for any sign and trade that D. Walsh might come up with.
We clearly know the MSG braintrust is not very savvy so I think they’d like Lebron, Wade & Bosh/Stoudemire (D.Lee sign & trade) but
they’ll wind up with something like Boozer (FA?), Jesus(Ray/Ray) or Joe J (sign & trade? or mid level) and maybe Bosh (D.Lee sign & trade).
Daniel
May 12, 2010
Lee is the best value for the Knicks IF he is signed LAST. Otherwise, he’s great value– just not the best. Signing Lee last allows the Knicks to go further over the cap than they otherwise would to sign free agents, as his cap hold number, rather than his actual salary, will determine how much room the Knicks have. They’d have to renounce his Bird Rights if they signed two players, though, meaning they would no longer be able to go over the cap to sign him.
However, if Donnie Walsh sets his sights too high and doesn’t go after Lee with at least a promise and an explanation, Lee will probably go to a team like the Thunder for a contract to the tune of 5 years/$70M.
Ben Guest
May 12, 2010
Good post Ty. Here is another alternative: Let’s say that LeBron resigns with the Cavs (or, at least, doesn’t sign with the Knicks). Does it not make the most sense to then re-sign Lee, play out another lost year, collect the high lottery pick, let Curry’s contract expire and try again for the marquee WP48 free agents in 2011? Bosh and Boozer are older than Lee and Johnson will likely soon approach the downside of his career…
John Giagnorio
May 13, 2010
I think the Knicks had to take the chance and clear the cap space for this year. Does anyone have a feel for how much lottery picks are typically worth (5 years of wins produced or something similar)?
Not sure what the Knicks should do if they strike out on Lebron. There will probably be massive amounts of pressure to fill the cap space, and the playoff revenue is probably tempting as well. I have a feeling Curry’s contract will be turned into someone useful, though.
Sportsfantic613
May 13, 2010
Because the Knicks are not going to be able to land the free agents that they had originally hoped to get(Lebron, Wade), their best option is as mentioned to sign some free agents this year and still have room for the 2011 year when Eddy Curry comes off the books. In the meantime, they could use some of the this years cap space for Raymond Felton who will probably command around $8 million per season and use another $8million for Brandon Haywood. Then signing David Lee for about $12million per season. This leaves them with enough room for a one max player for 2011. (If Felton or Haywood are asking for more than that, then the Knicks aught to simply wait for 2011. ) A starting line up of Felton, Chandler, Galinari, Lee and Haywood is better than a lot of teams and better than anything they’ve had anytime in the recent past. The two worst mistakes that the Knicks could make are 1) letting Lee go and instead signing Boozer or Bosh who cost you too much in terms of what they bring compared to what Lee brings 2) signing a not so good player to more money than he is worth such as signing a Rudy Gay for $10million a year.
Leon
May 13, 2010
There are a lot of decent, low-ish wage producers out there. It’s entirely possible they could nab quite a few of these and build a pretty strong roster. And then when Curry goes, have a little over to buy a bigger name. To name a few:
Mike Miller, Brad Miller, Amir Johnson, Haywood, Nate Robinson, Felton, Tyrus Thomas (restricted) and possibly even Josh Childress (although you are probably starting to go expensive there).
There certainly an option to not waste a season for the knicks.
Tommy_Grand
May 13, 2010
Hey Ty, good articel. But what does this mean?
“UFAs include Nate Robinson, Steve Blake and Luke Ridnour. Of those, the latter is the most efficient with 5.4 wins produced and a 0.148 WP48 last year.”
Tommy_Grand
May 13, 2010
i.e. Do you mean Blake or Ridnour?
James
May 13, 2010
Ridnour
dan fitz
May 13, 2010
the problem with the knicks is donnie walsh. he is a dinosaur and hasnt adjusted to the new realities of the game. that there are statistical ways to determine the best players. and it doesnt involve looking at a game. walsh made no play last year for trevor ariza or rmon sessions, two good players that good of been locked up for small amount. both are about a .2 wp48 i believe. and this year in the draft he passes on ty lawson, when they need a point. the best point in the draft. i give him a pass on jennings cause he was hard to quantify. Walsh signed jermaine o’neill to a max contract. he is average.. the knicks should make a run at kyle lowery. he is restricted but at a couple of million. at least he can make the rockets pay up . the knicks got creamed by morey in that trade. 4 no. 1’s. jeffereies was, jordan hill, 2012, and the right to swap. all for cap space. i guarantee he messes it up with david lee. and boozer WILL NOT fit with d’antoni’s style
John Giagnorio
May 13, 2010
The Knicks didn’t get creamed. The trade must be viewed in light of the mess that Isiah Thomas created and Walsh’s need to get out of the mess to get a shot at Lebron, Wade, etc. Houston definitely made the Knicks pay dearly to clear the cap space, but I think it had to be done.
This is a league where 20% of the players produce 80% of the wins. The best player in the league has no peers (Lebron produced 27 wins, the next highest guy under 20!). The guys available in 2010 will only be available now, and the Knicks have a very real chance of landing 2 of them. It’s a game dominated by extremes, and I have a hard time believing there’s any analysis that would make the trade with Houston look like anything other than a must do for the Knicks. How much would those picks have to be worth to offset the 10% chance of Lebron and Wade, etc?
Ty Ahmad-Taylor
May 13, 2010
@Italian Stallion: you are correct, they could trade Curry in-season or before the season starts, and pull off a sign-and-trade, but that would be for a player who is good but has a terrible contract. I was trying to constrain myself to the realm of the possible with respect to the UFA crop. But certainly a possibility.
@Ben Guest: my feelings about the 2011 class is that Carmelo isn’t worth max money, and he is looking for max money. He is occasionally an efficient shooter, but his overall efficiency doesn’t speak to max money, and I would rather get value for the money spent. Furthermore, I don’t think that Knicks management can wait another season, from a fan perspective (which has nothing to do with WPA.)
I don’t think that they should overreach, but what they do has to be done this year.
Mad Man
May 13, 2010
Let’s not forget about the draft. Although the Knicks don’t have a first round pick, they have two second rounders- and with such a deep draft, they could possibly come away with a solid player or two.
Just something to gnaw on. But given Walsh’s history of sub-par drafting skills, it’s unlikely that they will find at least a productive role player.
Tommy_Grand
May 13, 2010
“Ridnour”
Really? I would have guessed he meant Blake. I’d estimate Blake produced about 5.4 wins last season. Were both players in that range?
Blake might be a nice FA add for a team needing a quality backup (at a reasonable price). Maybe San Antonio?
Tommy_Grand
May 13, 2010
“and with such a deep draft”
Is it an unusually deep draft this year?
Rob O'Malley
May 13, 2010
I personally think last years draft is much deeper than this years
palamida
May 13, 2010
It’s deep with reserves :)
Tommy_Grand
May 13, 2010
I do not think this year’s class of U.S. college players is unusually good. But there may be a bunch of awesome international players available. I have no idea about them. I know there’s at least one 7 footer from Lithuania.
Mad Man
May 13, 2010
it’s not unusually deep, but guys like Jarvis Varnado, Sherron Collins, Jerome Jordan, Darrington Hobson, etc. will be gems in the 2nd. Mark it down!
palamida
May 14, 2010
Mad man, I don’t really get what you’re saying here. Every year some players will be underrated and thus “second round gems”, that alone does not make a draft deep: How many so called “gems” are there? how are they projected as pros? and when speaking of “depth” – how does it all compare to an average season’s talent?
This year’s crop seems to be particularly weak .
Sherron Collins, really? A classic example of a guy who’ll get drafted (mocks put him at around the 40 range) just because he played in a major college. He’s 5’11 which of the bat puts him the defensive liability land – his peripheral numbers suggest that would be the case indeed. While he’s a decent to good 3 pt shooter, his rebounding is abysmal, his blocks are non existent and he doesn’t even do a good job of using his relative strength, meaning – quickness, to come up with steals. While his passing is ok, and so is his Ast\to ratio, his totals are unimpressive for a college senior. -especially one who needs to bring something very unique to the table considering he’s short. An Aaron Brooks type player, for whom the average mark is probably a ceiling and even that is a long shot. The good news for him is that he might get a MIP award somewhere down the line :), but seriously, a 3rd string PG at best who will probably be playing overseas sooner rather than later.
Jerome Jordan can be given a bit more leeway perhaps seeing as he only started to play basketball 5 years ago. Nevertheless, in all likelihood he will never be more than a useful backup. He rebounds and can block some shots but that’s about it. His low steal numbers and his Ast\to ratio (though as I said, he gets some benefit of the doubt seeing as he’s only played the game 5 years) probably do not bode well for him, and probably put him more in 3rd string territory than 2nd.
If that’s depth, I guess I don’t know what depth is.
Varnado is a nice pickup. Anyone who rebounds and blocks this well has a place in any NBA roster, especially considering he’s done it consistently. The rest is rubbish, but hey if it weren’t he’d be a top 10 pick and rightfully so.
Don’t really know Hobson. He’s numbers are solid, but he’s played vs. inferior competition.
don’t have the data to adjust to that atm, so i’m on the fence when it comes to him.
Mark it down: Collins and Jordan will not be “gems” and with Varnado I kinda think everyone knows what you’re gonna get from him. He’ll be a solid win producer, and to me he’s even worth a mid-late first round pick in this poor draft (if the team has a need for his specific skills). Bottom line is – if you call getting a somewhat above average (not by much) win producer early in the second round – a gem, that I guess we use different terminology.
M
May 16, 2010
No D ‘Antoni is a pretty big issue and will likely be part of the reason the very best avoid NY.
Betting Agents
May 31, 2010
Last years draft is much deeper than this years.