Jeff Van Gundy argued this weekend that adding LeBron to the Chicago Bulls wouldn’t be enough to transform the Bulls into a title contender. Kevin Ferrigan – who was asked to respond to this story – disagrees. Kevin is a third year law student at William & Mary Law School. He is originally from Maine, but has been a lifelong Bulls fan going back to the Jordan dynasty.
LeBron James and the Cavaliers were ousted from the playoffs just a few short days ago. Already, there has been a great deal of speculation about where the King will end up next season. In recent days, an increasing number of voices have pointed to my beloved Chicago Bulls as one of the best possible destinations for LeBron. At least Chicago is a preferred destination if winning is — as he claims — his number one priority. However, Jeff Van Gundy recently made some interesting comments about what LeBron could do for the Bulls. In short, Van Gundy claimed that LeBron alone would not make the Bulls a title contender. But is he right? Let’s take a look at the Bulls’ roster and the story told by Wins Produced.
The Bulls don’t have a full roster of players for next year. In fact, according to ShamSports.com’s Chicago salary page, the Bulls have just 6 players under contract for next year. Those players are Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich, Taj Gibson, and James Johnson. The Bulls will also have the 17th pick in this year’s draft (resulting from a pick swap with the Milwaukee Bucks). A mid-first round pick is unlikely to have much of an impact as a rookie. So, let’s take a look at the Wins Produced and WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] of the other six players and see what they can offer the King next year (Wins Produced numbers courtesy of Andres Alvarez).
- Joakim Noah: 10.9 Wins Produced, 0.272 WP48
- Luol Deng: 7.7 Wins Produced, 0.139 WP48
- Derrick Rose: 6.8 Wins Produced, 0.113 WP48
- Taj Gibson: 5.7 Wins Produced, 0.124 WP48
- Kirk Hinrich: 4.1 Wins Produced, 0.080 WP48
- James Johnson: -1.0 Wins Produced, -0.066 WP48
An average player posts a WP48 above 0.099. So of these six players, four are above average. It’s worth noting that the Bulls’ best player by WP48, Joakim Noah, was limited this year by injury trouble. Despite this limitation, Noah was still able to produce nearly 11 wins. Next year, if he’s able to remain healthy for more of the year — and keep his production at the level we saw this year — he could produce 14 or 15 wins.
Together these six players accounted for 34.2 Wins Produced. And that includes the negative production from James Johnson. Chicago’s Wins Produced in 2009-10 was only about 36.8, so the Bulls not under contract were generally unproductive.
Now let’s look at LeBron James’ MVP year. This year he produced a WP48 of .401 and produced 24.8 wins (if one thinks of LeBron as just a small forward, these numbers rise to 0.444 and 27.2). Adding 24.8 to the 34.2 Wins Produced from the six players listed above, and we see a team with 59 victories. And that means if LeBron and the remaining Bulls on the roster are able to match their production from the last year, the Bulls would already be near 60 wins before we even consider the contribution of the players who must fill out the remaining roster spots.
All of that assumes performance doesn’t change. Again, though, Noah should be healthier. Furthermore, Derrick Rose is still young. And that means Rose will probably get even better.
There is a potential downside to the move. The second most productive player on this team is Luol Deng, who happens to play the same position as LeBron. This suggests that Deng could be the odd man is LeBron comes to town. If Chicago is able to land an equally productive player at a position of need (like shooting guard where Hinrich is inadequate) for Deng via trade, this should not be an issue. However, if the Bulls trade Deng for an unproductive player simply to clear minutes for LeBron, they will have wasted an asset and hurt their chances at being a contender.
Despite the Deng issue, I think the numbers hint that Coach Van Gundy was probably incorrect in his assessment that the Bulls would not be a title contender if they added LeBron. They’d still need to fill out the roster, of course, but adding nearly 25 wins to a team that went to the playoffs this year would be a huge, huge upgrade. And this should be enough to vault the Bulls back into the contender conversation; a conversation they have not been a part of since the days of the guy who made the number 23 famous.
– Kevin Ferrigan
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Wages of Wins Journal 
John Giagnorio
May 17, 2010
I like the post and was actually running these numbers earlier today. The Bulls would certainly be a contender with Lebron, but not a particularly strong contender. It’s too bad the franchise is so in love with Hinrich. If we’d moved him for an expiring contract, the Bulls (assuming we got Lebron) could’ve put a 65-70 win team on the court next year. Wouldn’t worry too much about moving Deng; no one’s taking on that massive contract :)
Arturo
May 17, 2010
Kevin,
Good post.
The bulls need to go out and get good young players to fill out the roster if they get LBJ. That would be a good team for a very long time.
I think you can find a taker for Deng’s contract (like say a russian billionaire or a desperate team in the greatest city in the world) or maybe a sign and trade.
Kevin Ferrigan
May 17, 2010
I should note that it’s entirely possible that the Bulls could simply ask LeBron to play SG alongside Rose and slide Hinrich to the bench. LeBron isn’t as sharp a shooter as you might normally like from the SG position, but he’s certainly quick enough to defend shooting guards and he’s the best and probably most versatile player in the world, he could easily fit at SG if need be.
Rose, LeBron, Deng, Gibson, and Noah would be an unbelievably huge lineup in terms of length and it would be athletic as all get out. It’d also be filled with players who are all above average performers by WP48 and are all 26 years old and under. Scary.
robbieomalley
May 18, 2010
If LeBron decides he’s definitely heading to Chicago, the Bulls could offer Cleveland Luol Deng in a sign-and-trade. It gets LeBron 30 mil more, rids the Bulls of Dengs contract. It gives Cleveland a talented player in return so they aren’t left empty handed.
EJ
May 18, 2010
Kevin //
A lineup of Rose, LeBron, Deng, Gibson, and Noah would leave their only serious 3 point threat on the bench. I don’t think it would be such a great lineup as their WP/48 numbers would suggest.
And letting Lebron chase SG’s on defense all day might have serious consequences on his knees, considering his 6’9″, 250″ pound frame.
Kevin Ferrigan
May 18, 2010
robbie,
If the Cavaliers are really going to lose LeBron to the Bulls (or any other team really), I believe they are best served by stripping the team down and rebuilding with draft picks.
Getting the best odds of the best draft pick would involve not getting back productive players with big contracts like Deng. He would only lock them into mediocrity and maybe first round playoff exits. I can’t imagine that’s what they are really looking for in their future.
Additionally, refusing to take anyone back in a sign and trade would make the decision to leave that much more difficult for LeBron because he’d be leaving money on the table.
Daniel
May 18, 2010
It’s not exactly easy to “get good young players to fill out the roster”. They’re scarce, and every team is vying for them. It’s like saying they’d be a better team “if they could just win more games”. Not exactly a statement oozing with subtext.
The Cavs have Hickson, Varejao, West, and Williams, who are all 27 or under, Moon who is 29, and Jamison, who is 33. ALL of these players were between .116 and .191 WP48 this past season.
If LeBron left, the Cavs would replace LeBron’s .401 WP48 with some combination of Varejao, Jamison, Moon, and Hickson, with an average WP48 of about .175, dropping 7/16 of his win contribution. According to Arturo’s “Pomp and Circumstance” minute table, the Cavs lose 16 wins– meaning they could be as good as a 54-win team without James. The Bulls are a 41-win team without James and won’t have any room to improve the team any more if he signs there since they’ll have only $5m in cap space and no MLE. It will take many years of shrewd management or some super-lucky trades or picks for LeBron’s Bulls to get anywhere near the level of Jordan’s Bulls. Or LeBron’s Cavs. And the Bulls were very unlucky with Rose, because he’s a slightly above-average scoring guard who is considered a superstar (Iverson anyone?), and when paid like a superstar, will kill any chance of his team really becoming great.
Through this lens, LeBron would be insane to leave if his sole focus was winning a championship in the next few seasons.
Daniel
May 18, 2010
P.S.
The Cavs need to keep Mike Brown. He’s one of the best defensive and culture coaches in the league. Just get him an offensive coordinator– he knows his offense is unimaginative– do something about it!!!
ilikeflowers
May 18, 2010
Daniel,
As long as Mike Brown’s around it won’t matter that the Cavs have good players. He’s demonstrated that he won’t play them. That’s not an offensive issue. He’s detrimental to the team.
stephanieg
May 18, 2010
I guess it depends on what one means by contending. If you just mean winning a lot of games in the regular season and LeBron is really worth almost 30 wins, then any 20+ win team could be said to contend by acquiring his services. But I think we all know most of these teams wouldn’t actually threaten for the title if it’s LeBron and a bunch of lottery level players. Ask Cleveland and Mav fans about that hypothesis.
At least non-stats people think Rose is a budding superstar PG. But if WP says Rose is only a slightly better Mo Williams, their only good big is Noah, their best bench player would be Deng, and Cleveland has a deeper pool of talent and is one of the best defensive and 3 point shooting teams in the league, won 60+ games 2 seasons in a row and then gets dismantled in the playoffs…how could the Bulls contend again?
I don’t want to sound like a “lol stats” person, but I find it incredibly hard to fathom Noah of all people being the 2nd best player on a title team unless he gets waaaay better or their team is super stacked. Ditto Sideshow Bob (especially playing 28 minutes a game!).
Daniel says:
“Through this lens, LeBron would be insane to leave if his sole focus was winning a championship in the next few seasons.”
Even though his team has gotten totally exposed in the last two seasons? Mind, I’m not really sure what he should do. Orlando is gonna dominate the East for a few years it would seem.
todd2
May 18, 2010
Another intangibles rant; I thought the 38 point 4th quarter in the game 3 loss to the Bulls was telling. It looked as if they coasted for three quarters and tried to overcome a deficit too late. The great teams play hard from buzzer to buzzer and I don’t think we saw that from the Cavs this year. There were times they looked as if they were sleepwalking against the Celtics. Blame James or Mike Brown, not sure.
don
May 18, 2010
This analysis seemingly ignores the Law of Diminishing Returns. Attending to this law would mean not simply adding James prior contribution to the contributions of the Bulls’ contract players. As said in both of Berri’s books, there is only one basketball.
Chicago Tim
May 18, 2010
If the Bulls use Deng in a sign and trade for LeBron, doesn’t that free up enough money to sign a second free agent who is equal to or better than Deng and plays a different position than LeBron?
Marparker
May 18, 2010
I going to go out on a limb and state that most championship level teams are 50 win teams without their best player. Meaning if you take the teams best player off the roster and replace him with someone that “merely” above average you get a 50 win team.
The Cavs are certainly not that kind of team. Those kind of teams have at least one other .25+ type player. And also have another .2+ or so player. That team then needs to be filled with a roster of at least 3 other above average players.
Here is my list of teams that have 2 other .2 players not already playing small forward. These are true before the upcoming roster changes
Boston
Denver
Lakers
Miami
Phi
Por
SA
Utah
Now, I would say that Lebron has a 0% chance of going to any of those teams. I estimate that his best chance of winning a championship comes in Cleveland with them adding a young player capable of putting up .2+ numbers.
List of non small forwards who put up .2 in over 1000 minutes this season
Camby
Howard
Love
Kidd
Paul
Gasol
Duncan
Boozer
Nash
Wade
Rondo
Ginobili
Troy Murphy
Odom
Lee
Noah
Chris Andersen
Blair
Deron Williams
Garnett
Ben Wallace(bing bing bing)
Bogut
Bosh
Horford
Mike Miller(bing bing bing)
Kirilenko
Iguadala
Haywood(bing bing bing)
We all know that a team full of Wizards cast offs
will win you a championship. But in all seriousness wouldn’t those players be the easiest to acquire.
Cleveland does seem to at leats know how to keep from adding below average players to their roster. I’m hoping the can now excercise that acumen to accumulate some playoff players for Lebron to work with.
Either that or he signs for 1million a year and Portland and they dominate the league.
Marparker
May 18, 2010
Man my last post was gibberish. Translation- Lebron is already frozen off the rosters built to actually contend for a championship unless he takes some sort of tremendous pay cut.
Chicago Tim
May 18, 2010
Are we going to get a column about the NBA draft?
robbieomalley
May 18, 2010
Kevin,
I actually agree with you. As a Wizards fan, I know what it’s like when a team spends money to try to hold onto the dream of being mediocre. I definitely don’t think it’s the smart way to go. It is possible though for Ferry to want to do this. What makes sense to you and me is different than what makes sense to most NBA GMs.
Michael
May 18, 2010
I think Miami would be the best place for Lebron if he decides to leave Cleveland. Dwayne Wade + No income tax makes it much more attractive than Chicago.
Arturo
May 18, 2010
Marparker,
I actually went out and calculated this for all the teams in the 2nd round of the playoffs this year ( take the teams best player off the roster and replace him with someone that “merely” above average .100 WP48). Here’s the list:
Cavs 39
Orlando 43
Boston 38 (50 if I use my adjusted numbers)
Atlanta 41
Utah 44
Phoenix 43
San Antonio 43
Lakers 43
The Cavs/Celts (using the full season) were the worst of the bunch but the magic number seems to be 43 wins. The Bulls would be 3 wins short of this so they would have to move Deng (either for Lebron +quality free agent or for a quality player) to be in that range or greater. Seems doable but they have to upgrade from Deng as Kevin well points out.
John Giagnorio
May 18, 2010
The Nets/Knicks are going to be desperate for a guy who’s never made an all star team, isn’t considered a star by mainstream fans/analysts, and isn’t much better than average by advanced stats? Is there any basis for saying this other than wishful thinking?
Here’s the contract in question:
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/chicago.htm
It’d take a miracle to move that contract.
John Giagnorio
May 18, 2010
But on the plus side, Luol Deng is such a nice person :-\
Michael
May 18, 2010
Just saw this
http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=381195
Apparently Lebron called Rose after game 6 :-p
Joe
May 18, 2010
I repeat: can someone please explain to me why this purportedly “reliable” statistic is nowhere to be found on any reputable basketball statistics website?
Do you guys actually want to DEFEND your methodology?
jbrett
May 18, 2010
Hey, look, guys; Joe’s back! Clearly his time is way too important to pick up the book that lays out the logical basis for the metric, and shows any number of practical applications which demonstrate its accuracy. He can’t even look through the archives of a site he’s already visiting, and maybe learn something there. No, all he can be bothered to do is swing by and launch ill-considered broadsides at no one in particular. Gee, thanks for stopping by.
I’ll humor you just this much; since you are, as I mentioned, ALREADY HERE, go up to the ‘Search’ box and type in Iverson (or Billups, or Andre Miller). Read the predictions you find about both Iverson trades–then find anyone else on the planet who got it right. And once you’ve done that, either read up, or shut up.
diaryofatiredblackman
May 18, 2010
Great post. I see the Knicks scenario panning out more so than the Bulls. I really believe Bron’ll end up wherever Worldwide Wes tells him to go. What a goon.
http://diaryofatiredblackman.wordpress.com/2010/05/18/approach-cautiously-protein-race-and-rules/
Edmond
May 18, 2010
Well, Joe (I don’t know why I’m taking the bait):
This metric was created by a professor of economics and presumably vetted by his peers. His work was published by Stanford University Press.
Now, have your “reputable” websites ever subjected their statistics to rigorous academic peer review? If not, what exactly makes them reputable? Because they say so? Because you say so?
If you dig back through this website, you will find that there is a long, thorough discussion of what WP does and does not do, and considerable scrutiny of how it compares to other metrics.
The thing to remember is that WP is very descriptively accurate–you can take the box score data from a team and, using only WP, calculate how many games that team won to an amazingly accurate degree. The proof is in the pudding.
ilikeflowers
May 18, 2010
Joe,
Defend what exactly? Which chapter of book one or two do you dislike? Do you think that rebounding is overvalued? Do you think that Kobe Bryant is almost as good as Michael Jordan or that Melo and AI are superstars? Do you think that +/- is a better measure? Please be more specific.
Marparker
May 19, 2010
Arturo,
By merely above average I meant an above average starter. More along the lines of someone getting close to .15+.
But 43 still works if .1 is the replacement player we are using.
Italian Stallion
May 19, 2010
Enjoyed this analysis very much.
I want to add one thing. IMHO, it’s not going to be so easy to trade Deng’s contract. IMO, it’s a bad one and that is a fairly common view.