Arturo Galletti – who has contributed two stories to the WoW Journal (see HERE and HERE) – and Andres Alvarez (who has created the automated Wins Produced website and posted this column) have been looking at my calculation of Wins Produced from 1977-78 to 2009-10. Soon (not sure how “soon” is defined but I guess before the end of summer) this data will be posted on-line. And we are already discussing various studies we can do with this data (beyond what I have published with my fellow economists).
Andres got this work off with the following question: How many “game-changing” players have been selected in the NBA draft?
The answer to this question depends on the definition of “game-changing”. For Andres a “game-changing” pick is defined as a player who posted a 0.250 WP48 as a rookie and also produced 15 or more wins. In other words, he was a “star” player who actually played.
Since 1977-78, there have been hundreds of players drafted into the NBA. And of all these players, these nine players were the only “game-changing” draft picks.
To put these numbers in perspective, only 343 times – of the 12,773 player-seasons since 1977-78 – has a player posted a 0.250 WP48 and 15 Wins Produced. So less than 3% of the time does a player do this well.
Rookies tend to play worse than average, so we should not be surprised that few rookies can step in and have this kind of impact in his first season. What is interesting is that since the turn of the century (at least, I thought this was interesting), Chris Paul is the only game-changing rookie.
All of this is but one more piece of evidence that rookies – despite what you will hear during the broadcast of the NBA draft next month – are not going to immediately transform the fortunes of the NBA team who becomes their new employer. And for most of these rookies, they will never transform their team’s fortunes (and that is a good story for another day).
In the coming weeks and months, look for more of the stories told by all these numbers (via the incredible work of Arturo and Andres).
Another Radio Appearance…
On Tuesday night was I was a guest on Last Call, a program on Hardcore Sports Radio. On the blog associated with the show my appearance was described as follows:
– Talks about the economics in sports
– Chats about some of the stories in his book
– Book has stories ranging from a variety of sports in North America and the economics
– Talks about player/coach relationships and the effects
– Chats about LeBron James and former coach of the Cavaliers Mike Brown
– Believes the Cavs are in panic mode this off-season
– Talks about the value of head coaches and Phil Jackson
– States that players get better being coached by Phil Jackson
– Brings up similarities between Phil Jackson and Red Auerbach
– Talks about Phil Jackson and his contract with the Lakers
– Believes Phil Jackson has a huge impact coaching the Lakers
– Discusses rating NBA players from his research
– Chats about specific baseball stats
– Talks about basketball stats, specifically scoring stats
– Believes the NBA has a problem with statistics and how players are signed to contracts
– States that NBA players care more about scoring points to gain a high value contract
– Chats about evaluating the NBA free agent class of 2010
– Talks about the differences between David Lee and Chris Bosh
– Chats about superstar’s on a team shooting the ball rather than having another player shoot in clutch situations
– Talks about the best head coaches available
If you wish to hear the actual broadcast, a podcast is available at the Hardcore Sports Radio website (look under Last Call). The interview was live, and it was 10:30pm in Utah (and after midnight Eastern time). Although it was late, the questions were great. I can’t say the same for my answers. Again, it was pretty late for a 40-year old professor.
By the way, if you choose to download the interview and listen, I come on 30 minutes into the broadcast. The interview starts with a discussion of teaching, sports, and economics (where I note that some stuff in economics is not interesting). From there we eventually get around to the list of topics seen above.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Wages of Wins Journal 
James
May 27, 2010
Very fascinating story told by these numbers. What’s particularly interesting is that, for the most part, these are the players someone would expect to see there. In fact, with the exception of Marques Johnson (and Magic because he was rookie the same year as Bird), all these players won Rookie of the Year.
James
May 27, 2010
Also, I wonder if the more recent trend of players not going to college (or in today’s case, going one and done) can explain the lower frequency since the turn of the century. All of these 9 played at least two years in college. And aside from Magic and CP3, they all went at least three.
Arturo
May 27, 2010
Actually, the Full list including those who played more than 1000 minutes is
Name Year Pick Team Minutes Played WP48
David Robinson 1987 1 SAS 3002 0.394
Michael Jordan 1984 3 CHI 3144 0.355
Magic Johnson 1979 1 LAL 2795 0.353
Buck Williams 1981 3 NJN 2825 0.327
Cedric Maxwell 1977 12 BOS 1213 0.324
Shaquille O’Neal 1992 1 ORL 3071 0.324
Marques Johnson 1977 3 MIL 2765 0.316
Nate McMillan 1986 30 SEA 1972 0.314
Larry Bird 1978 6 BOS 2955 0.311
Chris Paul 2005 4 NOH 2809 0.305
Poor Cedric & Nate were forgotten! :-)
Larry Smith (80 24th Pick GSW .299 WP48 just misses the cut).
Jordan,Bird and Robinson were more than 6 std dev. from the mean in wins for rookies.
James
May 27, 2010
Well, forget what I said about the players being the ones expected to be there. I’m really surprised to see both Nate McMillan and Cedric Maxwell there, wouldn’t have guessed that. Still, Nate and Cedric played 2 and 4 years in college, respectively.
robbieomalley
May 27, 2010
I think Blake Griffin has a chance to be on this list next year if he can get fully healthy.
jbrett
May 28, 2010
Great stuff, guys. I’m really looking forward to the historical numbers; I wonder how many more surprises there will be. McMillan is a mind-blower for me; I’m not sure you can look at his stat lines and see that coming. Maxwell didn’t surprise me; I have often wondered if, had Bird ended up elsewhere, would we be discussing the Big Three of Parish, McHale, and Maxwell–or would he not have been flashy enough?
Lastly, I am simply stunned by two names that didn’t make the list–Ralph Sampson and Hakeem Olajuwon. I know Houston didn’t win much in Ralph’s rookie year, but I thought it was a case of tanking, by playing guys like a 60-year-old Elvin Hayes 48 minutes a game, and that Ralph would have had the lion’s share of the Wins Produced; clearly that was not the case. I’m more surprised Hakeem isn’t there; the Rockets leaped ahead in wins his first year. Even with a finite number of wins to go around, I expected him to have had this kind of season.
Keep it coming, fellows; fascinating stuff!
todd2
May 28, 2010
Beautiful! Cedric Maxwell was a stat sheet filler—pretty good defender and rebounder and lived at the free throw line. His was probably a case of not enough basketballs to go around. Marques Johnson was the prototype small forward; speed, strength and grace. My favorite Buck Williams memory is him chasing Dennis Rodman into the stands during a game. Williams was also an answer to a great trivia question some years ago: the top three rebounders one year were all named Charles.
kevin
May 28, 2010
Equally so though, I think the list points our rather dramatically that, if you DO draft someone who you expect to be a game-changer, you should have some pretty strong evidence of that right away. I can’t think of one player who isn’t on that list who developed into a game changer.
kevin
May 28, 2010
“Lastly, I am simply stunned by two names that didn’t make the list–Ralph Sampson and Hakeem Olajuwon. ”
Hakeem maybe but it doesn’t surprise me at all that Sampson didn’t make it. The guy who really surprises me is McMillen. I always thought he was very underrated but never as superstar material.
Evan
May 28, 2010
kevin…
kevin durant?
kevin
May 28, 2010
“Beautiful! Cedric Maxwell was a stat sheet filler—pretty good defender and rebounder and lived at the free throw line.”
The kicker for him were his ridiculously high FG%’s.
Maxwell was one of the most unusual players I ever saw, with a very odd mix of skills. He had gigantic hands and absurdly long arms, even by NBA standards. He was too skinny to be a truly great rebounder and had no jumpshot at all. The few outside shots he took were set shots from around 15-16 feet.
But he was an incredible ballhandler for someone of his size and build and he was phenomenal at the old fashioned three-point play. He played center in college for UNC-Charlotte and, during the NCAA tournament in 1977 when UNCC nearly won it all (they lost in the semis to eventual winner Marquette on an amazing last second basket by Jerome Whitehead where both offensive and defensive fouls or interference could have been called with equal and uniform plausibility), opposing teams tried to press them and it was Maxwell who was chosen by coach Lee Rose to be the ballhandler to break the press. Which he did with astounding success. He could go behind his back with a dribble as well as Magic. And he was an excellent shot blocker and defender, both near and away from the basket.
What hurt his reputation most was, as good as he was, for a good part of his career he was the THIRD best forward on the team, behind Bird and McHale. That and the unfortunate fact he played for the Clippers for a little while. The Clippers, the final resting place for many a potential star.
kevin
May 28, 2010
Let’s let Durant win something first, Evan. He looks good now but you could have said the same thing about Bernard King, Michael Ray Richardson, Phil Ford, Roy Tarpley…
I hear you though. He looks like the real deal from here.
P-Dawg
May 28, 2010
This is interesting and I think it helps manage expectations for the draft. But I think few GMs–or fans for that matter–expect a player to have a transformational impact on a team right out of the gate. I’d be more interested in knowing about college performance as a predictor of career success and how long it takes players to develop.
So, I’m a GM. I’m looking to draft a player. How well does college win score predict success in the pros? How long should I hold on to a player in the hope that he will fulfill his potential? Finally, if I’m a terrible team–say the Timberwolves or the Clippers–should I try to build a winner through the draft or should I trade my picks for above average pros and also try to sign star free agents?
Robbo
May 28, 2010
Yes, interesting none of the modern stars (think LBJ, Wade, Kobe…anyone besides CP3) make the list.
BTW, sorry to nitpik but shouldn’t it read that Jordan, Johnson and Robinson were more than 6 std dev. from the mean in wins for rookies.
Arturo
May 28, 2010
Evan,
This looks at year 1 and KD was not very good year one (there may be an age correlation there but I cannot elaborate).
jbrett,
Here’s Mcmillan career numbers:
Player Year Age POS MP WINS WP48
Nate McMillan 1987 22 1.6 1972 12.9 0.314
Nate McMillan 1988 23 1.6 2453 15.9 0.311
Nate McMillan 1989 24 1.0 2341 11.0 0.225
Nate McMillan 1990 25 2.0 2338 15.0 0.308
Nate McMillan 1991 26 2.0 1434 8.4 0.280
Nate McMillan 1992 27 2.3 1652 8.6 0.250
Nate McMillan 1993 28 2.0 1977 12.2 0.296
Nate McMillan 1994 29 1.6 1887 12.7 0.322
Nate McMillan 1995 30 1.8 2070 9.5 0.219
Nate McMillan 1996 31 1.7 1261 6.7 0.254
Nate McMillan 1997 32 2.0 798 4.8 0.290
Nate McMillan 1998 33 2.0 279 1.2 0.206
He was fantastic but never averaged more than 30 minutes a game. He was the best guard according to WP48 for all those seattle teams and his coach didn’t start him. I guess I have to take back my defense of George Karl.
We should adopt as the WP48 poster child.
Arturo
May 28, 2010
Robbo,
No I was looking at wins vs expected wins at the draft position. Earvin was picked 1 and Bird at 6. I’ll expand on this in a future post hopefully.
Evan
May 28, 2010
right, neither was lebron. i guess we’re only calling someone a gamechanger if they have a good rookie year? i know that’s what the post was about, but that didn’t really seem to be the case in the comment i was replying to
Dre
May 28, 2010
Arturo,
So funny stuff with your draft position point. Bird was picked lower than expected because teams didn’t know if he was going to complete school or come to the NBA!
Second, some of the teams that didn’t pick him did so because they wanted an “immediate impact” (I believe that is what Golden State said). No player picked in front of him generated 10 wins their rookie year, and Golden State’s went negative in wins :)
kevin
May 28, 2010
“I guess I have to take back my defense of George Karl. ”
How else did you expect a Carolina guy to handle a State guy?
Michael
May 28, 2010
Yo you forget about Melo you HATERRZ!!
Da Nuggets won 26 more games in his rookie year you fooooolllls!!!!!!!!!!!
That means his better then any1 on this list..TWENTY SIX wins produced on his rookie season!!!!
Go Melo & F U Haterrzz!!!!!!!!!!
Oh yeah BTW the Lakerz had 3 more wins in Kobe’s rookie season…and the year before that MAGIC was still on the team!
That meanz Kobe wuz THREE WINS BETTER THAN MAGIC on his rookie year!!!
Kobes the best EVA!!!
kevin
May 28, 2010
Ummm… anybody have any extra Ritalin lying around?
Evan
May 28, 2010
i’m pretty sure michael was levelling. nice job.
todd2
May 28, 2010
Bird was drafted a year early and was a 5th year senior when he came out. Magic came out after his soph season. They were separated by three years age-wise.
todd2
May 28, 2010
Great Clippers reference! Ron Harper and Derek (The Rock) Smith both blew out their knees playing for the Clips.
kevin
May 28, 2010
“Great Clippers reference! Ron Harper and Derek (The Rock) Smith both blew out their knees playing for the Clips.”
And Danny Manning. And Danny Ferry (Ok, he didn’t blow out his knee. But he played like he did).
If I were Lloyd’s of London and a Clippers player came to me wanting knee unjury insurance, I think I would take a pass. The Clippers are like typhoid Mary of catastrophic knee injuries.