Editor’s Note: The recent trade between the Kings and Sixers will be discussed from two perspectives. The following is from Mike Madden, a fan of the Kings. An upcoming post – from Sam Cohen – will discuss this trade from the perspective of the Sixers.
Mike Madden is a noble man living in the slums of Cincinnati. He follows the Kings because they used to be the Cincinnati Royals, and they’re the closest thing Cincinnati has to a basketball team. One day, if he’s up to it, Mike will buy the Kings from the Maloofs and relocate them back to da ‘nati. Until then, he’s stuck hoping Vlade Divac will come back and resurrect the Kings.
The Sacramento Kings recently traded Andres Nocioni and Spencer Hawes to the Sixers for Samuel Dalembert. Seems like a harmless trade on paper- two tall men are swapped, and the Sixers get a solid bench player. Philly also sheds about $3 million in net salary. One would think that the Sixers got the better end of the deal, right?
Wrong.
According to the production posted by each player involved in the trade this past season, it appears as though the Kings got the better end of the deal:
Hawes: -.007 WP48
Nocioni: -.015 WP48
Dalembert: .243 WP48
Hawes and Nocioni combined for -.74 wins, while Dalembert produced 10.75 victories. From 2006-10, Slammin’ Sammy D has been an above average player in terms of Wins Produced, averaging between 7-10 wins per season (with this past year being his best). This is due primarily to his rebounds and blocked shots, as well as his relatively high field goal percentage.
The Kings were eager to get rid of both Nocioni and Hawes. Nocioni demanded a trade out of Sacramento, and is due $13 million over the next two years. His best year was 2006 when he produced 9.38 wins, but his production has dwindled tremendously since then. Hawes was drafted 10th overall in 2007, has been in the negatives in terms of WP48 since then, and doesn’t show many signs of improvement. Once again, the Kings were happy to rid themselves of these two players.
With this trade, this is what the Kings’ roster looks like for next year:
Starting:
PG: Tyreke Evans: .158*
SG: Francisco Garcia: .097
SF: Omri Casspi: .069
PF: Jason Thompson: .044
C: Samuel Dalembert: .243
Bench:
PG: Beno Udrih: .136
SG: Ime Udoka: .132
SF: Donte Green: -.063
PF: Carl Landry: .026
C: Jon Brockman: .252
Projection: 36 wins.
*Evans played the majority of his time at SG, but the team is looking to move him to PG next season.
The Kings also have the fifth pick in the upcoming draft, and with the recent success of Evans, I’m expecting a player who will be an above average rookie and produce between 2-3 wins.
In conclusion, this may not be the trade of the century, but Sacramento did take a step in the right direction. Their record next year will be dependant upon a number of variables; particularly Evans success at point guard, Beno Udrih’s decreased playing time, Dalembert’s consistent production, the rookie, and the development of younger players such as Casspi, Thompson, and Brockman (and Evans, of course). And if the Maloof’s can lure a quality free agent (Joe Johnson?) for next season, don’t be surprised to see the Kings finish above .500.
– Mike Madden
Wages of Wins Journal 
Joe
June 21, 2010
Wait, you think Joe Johnson might come to Sacramento? I mean, really?
Are you and the rest of Berri’s cult so divorced from reality you cannot think rationally about anything non-statistical?
Evan
June 21, 2010
considering that this was written from the viewpoint of a fan dreaming, i think you’re the one who looks silly
Greg
June 21, 2010
I’d make these changes in your starting lineup. Start Carl Landry at small forward over Casspi, (historically a player well above .100). Draft Wesley Johnson and start him at shooting guard. That would be a very tall, strong rebounding team at every position which would compete with the Lakers and the Thunder.
Lior
June 21, 2010
Projecting Casspi is difficult. He started the season strong (about 0.150 WP48) and then faded over the second half. Probably the adjustment from a 45-game season to a 82-game season was taking its toll. I’m curious to see how much Casspi will be able to produce next year.
robbieomalley
June 22, 2010
Actually it looks a little better for the Kings than this points out. Dre’s number formula thinks Casspi spent about 560 minutes at PF while Jon Brockman spent all of his 654 minutes at SF. Obviously neither of these things happened. If you switch them you would get Casspi with about .108 WP48 and Brockman with about .155, which is more accurate.
If Landry returns to normal, that would be a starting lineup with 5 at least .100 players (based solely on them would be more than a .500 team).
robbieomalley
June 22, 2010
Joe,
What’s with all the trolling? We get it, you don’t agree with our “cult.” Unless you have something constructive to say, please just mind your own business. You are the Spencer Hawes of this comment section (not productive but you are offensive).
I would bet many of us do not agree with you. But you don’t see many of us trolling around your “cult” website @ http://www.theflatearthsociety.org/forum/.
marparker
June 22, 2010
I keep looking at that small number next to Landry and thinking its gonna change. However, I have no idea what kind of number should be used to make these projection.
brgulker
June 22, 2010
I will be shocked if Landry doesn’t return to career averages next season. I he does, Sacramento is probably going to be fighting for a playoff berth.
dberri
June 22, 2010
I think we shouldn’t be too quick to dismiss the “cult” idea. If I understand how cults work, the followers have to give everything they have to the cult leader.
So I think Joe is right. This is most definitely a cult.
Dre
June 22, 2010
“You are the Spencer Hawes of this comment section (not productive but you are offensive.”
Oh man Robbie, that’s awesome. It’s also cool as you can just update it by team (e.g. you are the Nick Young. . .) or by era (e.g. you are the Allen Iverson. . .)
Shawn Ryan
June 22, 2010
“Oh man Robbie, that’s awesome. It’s also cool as you can just update it by team (e.g. you are the Nick Young. . .) or by era (e.g. you are the Allen Iverson. . .)”
Seconded.
Shawn Ryan
June 22, 2010
dberri:
I’m fine with relinquishing all of my personal effects as long as matching Snuggies™ are part of the deal!
marparker
June 22, 2010
I hope this can inspire Berri or one of the new bloggers to investigate.
I was pouring through Arturo’s numbers and found something kind of interesting.
The Lakers were the only team with 4 players who booked 1900+ minutes with higher than a .15wp48.
Lots of teams have 4 .15wp48 players but can’t figure out how to get them to play that many minutes or else are plagued by injuries.
This caused me to realize that not many teams have 4 guys who book 2000 minutes. And also those that do can’t figure out how to do it with production.
Now this is one example but looked at OKC last year and they had only 3 guys play 1900 minutes and only two of them did it productively. Now, this year they had 4 2000 minute guys. Westbrook improved(.16) to above average and Sefalosa joined the team and played very solid for over 200o minutes(.163).
Now, we can see a problem for the rest of the league if Harden improves from .100 of his rookie season and can play more than the 1700 minutes we saw him play. Then, and this might be the bigger if, Ibaka plays significant minutes this year(only 1300 last year) and the Thunder reduce Jeff Green’s minutes from 3200 to give Ibaka more minutes this could spell trouble for the rest of the league. The Thunder have alot of players who have not reached the magic prime age yet.
Sorry for the longwindedness. I was thinking about the tradeoff between Hawes terrible 1900 minutes being swapped for probably more minutes out of a much more productive Dalembert.
marparker
June 22, 2010
Now the Rockets have the very real potential of having 4 2000 minute guy who produce over .15 next year.
C- yao ming .2 career
PF-Scola .17 career
Sf- Ariza .15 career
sg- Martin .17 career
bench maybe 200 minutes Battier .14 career
Now there is also that pesky no team has won
without a player getting really close to .3wp48 but it seems like the Rockets could very close to 60 wins with the return of Ming.
marparker
June 22, 2010
note- career numbers taken from the script thingamajig for espn.com
Joe
June 22, 2010
Sixers are the big losers were obviously. This move was made to get under the luxury tax. The team wasn’t going to resign Dalembert and management probably thinks Delfino/Hawes aren’t useless.
Just all around bad things for the Sixers. The future is bleak and the fans, and ownership, will completely turn on Iguodala soon enough.
Watching Sammy, Iguodala, and Andre Miller for those 2 1/2 years is something I missed last year and will continue to miss for the next 4 or so I’m sure.
Dre
June 22, 2010
He Joe,
Denver seemed willing to trade good players to Philly in exchange for questionable things. See if you can pawn off Hawes and Noccioni to Denver for Balkman and Birdman. I’m hoping we can fleece Iggy, but my other hypothetical situation may be just as likely. . . .
JazzFan
June 22, 2010
I haven’t looked very hard, but has anyone done a win score comparison of the first round prospects for thursday’s draft? I am more curious than normal because the Jazz are picking in the Top 10, and I don’t want them to pick an unproductive college player with a lot of “upside”
robbieomalley
June 22, 2010
chadfordinsider (via twitter)
“Apparently wings are the new bigs in the NBA Draft RT @sportsguy33 If Favors/Cousins go 4-5 this is the dumbest league ever.”
I’d agree with Bill Simmons. Also, is it weird I have a shrine of Berri made of bubble gum in my closet?
Evan
June 22, 2010
DJ — what flavor koolaid have you gotten for us?
Shawn Ryan
June 22, 2010
JazzFan:
Here’s a quick ranking that I worked up based on DraftExpess’ WS/40 rankings. I hope the order is relatively self explanatory, but I didn’t really intend for anyone else to see it.
On first page, I’ve ranked each player by their WS/40 minus the average WS/40 for the rest of the players at the same position in the draft.
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/724072/NBA%20Draft%20Win%20Score%20Rankings.xls
dberri
June 22, 2010
Hey Shawn,
Why not write up a post on this? I can put it up before the draft.
dberri
June 22, 2010
Shawn,
Actually, you need the average performance at each position. If you send me an e-mail I can give you those numbers. Then you can write a post on the draft.
Shawn Ryan
June 22, 2010
dberri:
Done.
Alvy
June 22, 2010
“Breaking News: Warriors trade Corey Maggette to the Bucks for Dan Gadzuric and Charlie Bell.”
Another trade of the century.
jbrett
June 22, 2010
Robbie,
A gem! Wish I’d thought of it. You are the Chris Paul of the comments section–fast and productive.
Mr. Madden,
Nice post. Not a lot of Cincinnati Royals loyalists left; do you hail from the days of The Big O and Lucas?
chibi
June 22, 2010
suggestion for a post:
ranking free agents by win score.
Arturo
June 22, 2010
Chibi,
It’s a great idea but we gotta wait for the deadline or stern will fine us. As I am a poor fan, I have to strongly deny any possibility that such a table may exist on my hard drive. :-)
robbieomalley
June 22, 2010
Hey guys I wrote a post on DeMarcus Cousins if you’re interested.
http://robbieomalley.wordpress.com/2010/06/22/demarcus-cousins-benoit-benjamin-2-0/
Jbrett,
Thanks. I was thinking “man, his comments are really not productive…wait a minute.”
reservoirgod
June 22, 2010
I like Shawn Ryan (cuz he’s in my fantasy league) – but no Erich Doerr post for this draft?
Blake
June 22, 2010
marparker:
If you further examine the roster for the Rockets, nine players could possibly be .150+ players next year, and at almost 2 deep every position.
PG: Kyle Lowry (.170 in Houston so far)
SG/SF: Kevin Martin (.178 career), Trevor Ariza (.157 career), Chase Budinger (.155 as a rookie), Shane Battier (.146 career)
PF/C: Chuck Hayes (.174 career), Jordan Hill (.171 as a rookie, .235 as a Rocket!), Yao Ming (.226 career), Luis Scola (.179 career)
Imagine being able to play .150 players at every position for nearly every minute of every game. If the Rockets can maintain historical production, avoid injuries, and add another .150+ PG, they are poised to win 60+ games without a single superstar.
Filipe
June 23, 2010
Blake, and they re trying hard to trade for Cousins.
dbt
June 28, 2010
As a longtime fan of the Chicago Bulls, let me just apologize to everyone for Andres Nocioni and his stupid stupid stupid contract.