Editor’s Note: The recent trade between the Kings and Sixers has already been discussed from the Sacremento perspective by Mike Madden (a fan of the Kings). Now we have the perspective of Sam Cohen, a fan of the Sixers. One should note, this was submitted before the NBA draft.
Sam Cohen grew up just outside of Philadelphia and is a life-long 76’ers fan. He maintains his allegiances to the Philly sports teams despite having lived over the last 14 years in Boston, Anchorage, and now Washington, D.C. Perhaps foreshadowing his interest in using Wins Produced as a tool to evaluate basketball players, Sam’s favorite players on the 76’er teams of the early 2000s were Eric Snow and George Lynch. In his real life, Sam is a health care regulatory lawyer.
In 2009-10, the Philadelphia 76’ers won 27 games. In 2008-09, the Sixers won 41 games. Not exactly the big step forward that Sixer fans were looking for. But it also wasn’t unexpected.
In the 2008-09 season, the Sixers were led in Wins Produced by Andre Igoudala (12.46 WP), Andre Miller (12.03 WP), and Samuel Dalembert (7.13 WP). And the season before that (2007-08), the Sixers were led in Wins Produced by the same trio (Igoudala: 11.14 WP, Miller: 10.18 WP, Dalembert: 9.31 WP). Continuing a pattern, the same trio also led the Sixers in Wins Produced in 2006-07 (Igoudala: 11.61, Dalembert: 8.34, Miller: 7.41). So when the Sixers didn’t resign Miller before the 2009-10 season and didn’t make any significant roster additions, Sixer fans could have taken a quick look at Wins Produced and resigned themselves to a long (and unproductive) season. And that was even before the Allen Iverson and Eddie Jordan soap operas took center stage.
When we look at Table 1, we can see that this long and unproductive season is exactly what the Sixers provided.
As shown in Table 1, the Sixers could have expected the players on their roster to produce 26.60 wins this year based on their production in 2008-09 (and the minutes they played this season). Instead, they produced 30.87 wins (although they only actually won 27 games).
The most straightforward story we could tell about this result is the story we began with- the Sixers let Andre Miller, a player who had produced 12 wins the previous season, leave. And, not surprisingly, the Sixers lost about 12 more games than they did the season before. But the numbers in Table 1 actually tell a slightly more complicated story.
Andre Miller and Louis Williams produced about 13 wins for the Sixers in 2008-09, primarily from the point guard position. Thanks to the improved play of Louis Williams and the play of rookie Jrue Holiday, the Sixers received about 9 wins from the point guard position in 2009-10. So trading away Miller was a big blow to the Sixers, but not nearly as big a blow as might have been expected going into the season.
The bigger blow was the play of the Sixers’ frontcourt players. Elton Brand, Thaddeus Young , and Marreese Speights all played worse in 2009-10 than they had in 2008-09. And, not shown in Table 1, was the loss during the off-season of Reggie Evans and his 3.59 Wins Produced from 2008-09. All told, the declining play of the three returning players, coupled with the absence of Evans, resulted in 10.5 fewer wins in 2009-10.
For Sixers fans, the drop off in production from Brand, Young, and Speights is troubling for the future. Brand’s poor showing in 2009-10 put the nail in the coffin to any thoughts that Brand’s diminished play in 2008-09 was the lingering result of his injury and that he would return to his formerly productive ways. And after a promising rookie year, Young has now seen a decrease in his productivity for two straight seasons (at a time in his career when his productivity should be improving). And while Speights only has experienced a small one-year decline, his failure to show improvement from his rookie season to his second season does not bode well for the future.
But not everything was bad news for the Sixers in 2009-10. Andre Igoudala continued his stellar (and mostly unappreciated) play. And noticeably absent from the discussion of disappointing Sixer frontcourt players was Samuel Dalembert. Dalembert has been one of the Sixers three most productive players for the last few seasons. With the departure of Miller, Dalembert continued his strong play and was the second most productive Sixer in 2009-10. In fact, 2009-10 was arguably Dalembert’s best season as a Sixer (at least since 2006 when the WP numbers provided by Andres Alvarez begin). From 2005-06 to 2008-09, Dalembert had a WP48 between .158 and .168 every season. But in 2009-10, Dalembert posted an impressive .241 WP48 (and 10.75 WP).
Unfortunately, this stellar production by Dalembert seems not to have been noticed by the Sixers’ coaches or front office. The coaches played Dalembert almost the exact same number of minutes in 2009-10 as in 2008-09, which also happened to be fewer minutes than the much less productive Elton Brand and Thaddeus Young. And now the Sixers’ front office has compounded the problem by trading Dalembert to the Sacramento Kings.
Since getting rid of their second most productive player before the season didn’t improve the team in 2009-10, apparently the Sixers have now decided to double-down on this tactic for 2010-11. Given the career year that Dalembert had in 2009-10, trading him at presumably the “height” of his trade value could have made sense. But that clearly is not what the Sixers were doing. Rather, they appear to have been trying to give Dalembert away, as evidenced by the fact that they traded him for a bag of chips. Technically, they traded him for Andres Nocioni and Spencer Hawes, but given that both of these players had negative WP48 in 2009-10, I’m not sure that there’s a big difference. In fact, the bag of chips would probably be more exciting. At least I could eat the bag of chips. (For a slightly more nuanced evaluation of the trade (with which I agree), you can see the discussion offered by Robbie O’Malley.
Hope springs eternal that new coach Doug Collins and the front office have a plan, but the early indications look no more promising than the season that the Sixers just finished.
– Sam Cohen
Wages of Wins Journal 
Shawn Ryan
June 25, 2010
Yeah, tough being a Sixers fan for the foreseeable future. I’ve got to think it’s hard for a team to win when their Center Produces in the negative range, no matter how good their wings (Iggy, and now Turner) are.
Also, Brand is 31, so his odds of him returning to a WP48 of .280 are remote.
Shawn Ryan
June 25, 2010
Good post Sam, I liked how you kicked it off with the win totals of the top three over the last 3 years. It’s kind of a subtle detail, but it struck me as a really good place to start.
reservoirgod
June 26, 2010
What I wonder is… Why does everyone talk about the 76ers future backcourt as Jrue Holiday & Evan Turner as if Lou Williams is chopped liver? Sam – what’s the word in Philly about Lou Williams’ place in Collins’ system?
brgulker
June 26, 2010
It will be interesting to see how the draft impacts Philly. I look forward to reading that article.
Sam Cohen
June 26, 2010
Reservoirgod- since I don’t live in Philly these days, I don’t get to listen to any Philly sports radio, etc. So it’s hard for me to know what the current thinking is about Lou Williams.
That said, I think some of the talk about Jrue Holiday is the general fascination with the “new” player. The Sixers had a pretty disappointing (if not unexpected) season, so I think people latched on to Holiday as an indication of a better future. And Lou Williams, even though he’s still pretty young, has been around for a number of years now. Plus, Holiday did play pretty well for a rookie.
khandor
June 26, 2010
If the 76ers line-up next season ends up looking something like this:
PG: Holiday, Williams [OG] and Green [OG]
OG: Iguodala [SF], Turner [SF] and Meeks
SF: Nocioni, Carney and Kapono
PF: Young [SF], Brand and Elson
C: Hawes, Speights and Smith
—————————————
HC: Doug Collins
it would be a mistake in judgment for anyone to assume that their team would not show marked improvement over this past season and be incapable of challenging for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
robbieomalley
June 26, 2010
Hahahaha, Yes! Khandor is back!
dberri
June 26, 2010
Not sure Khandor will be back for long.
reservoirgod
June 27, 2010
Khandor, if the 76ers enter the season w/ the roster you listed, then I hope you don’t bet too much money on the over.
khandor
June 27, 2010
reservoirgod,
In general, I am not someone who wagers on seasonal win-loss over/unders. What I will do, however, is advise others on whether or not their prospective wager … one way or the other … is a sound investment, given the relative strength of the teams in the NBA at a specific point of the off/pre-season. In which case, what’s really most important isn’t just the overall quality of the roster for the team in question but, also, what the specific over/under is. If you’re interested in this type of assessment from me, then, I’d be more than happy to provide it … once the total wins number is published for the 76ers. If you’re interested in what my “best guess” advice would be at this stage, however … given the early perceptions of the 76ers’ relative lack of strength from sources like Prof. Berri, and select others … then, yes, I would actually be leaning toward the “over,” 4 months prior to the start of next season, given that [i] their wins total over/under number might well be quite low and [ii] they could be in “rebound” mode from last season’s disappointing performance.
tgt
June 28, 2010
Rebound mode? Is the AI going to step in and make them all better?
Brandon
June 28, 2010
I’d say the 20-25 win range sounds about right for the sixers next year. Lose 10 from Sammy gain back 3-5 from Turner coupled with the improvement from the young guys. Early mocks are showing alot of good big men in the top 5 next year…
marparker
June 29, 2010
Lets assume that Turner is already better than Iguadala and is going to play major minutes. That way we are going to be in the upper ranges of Philly’s capabilities.
Iguadala produced 13.5 wins in 3000+ minutes last year. Lets just give Turner 15.5 wins(I’ll get into why in a bit). That already puts Philly at 29 wins. Just from the wings.
Now lets assume that Lou Williams and Jrue Holiday play only as well as they did last year even though they are young players who are likely to still be improving. That is another 9 wins. Now we are up to 38 wins.
If the other guys can just combine to win 0 games Philly is going to hit the over. That assuming Turner is legit and the young guards can keep up the good work.
IMO, Turner is the most productive player I’ve seen leave college since 2005 which is far back as my numbers go. If Turner turns out to be a .3 player, or close,and plays anywhere near 2500 minutes at either wing position along with Iguadala then Philly is in prime position. Of all the players who produced 15 wins only David Lee’s Knicks did not make the playoffs. And of the other subgroup only Gerald Wallace’s Bobcats did not win 50 games.
Philly screwed up by trading Dalembert for nothing but that doesn’t mean that Philly is completely up against it.
Also, lets not forget that good players help the players around them(hence the need for the team adjustment in the formula). We could be looking at a non lottery team in Philly.
Brandon
June 30, 2010
Sorry but mrparker, your smoking something if you think Evan Turner will come in and be a .300 player his rookie season. Chris Paul did it and he’s the best pg I’ve seen play since Magic in my lifetime. I will be content with a .100 season from him next year which puts him at about 4-5 wins depending on his minutes. Certainly for him to obtain .300 at some point in his career is quite possible, to say for him to do it his rookie year is quite insane.
marparker
June 30, 2010
Brandon,
I guess we will have to see. I think he is sure to develop into a .3 player and likely to be at least a .2 player this season.
Brandon
June 30, 2010
Indeed. As a disgruntled Sixers fan, I sure hope your right.
marparker
July 1, 2010
Try being a Wizards fan for a day. There is nothing in the pipeline for us to get excited about. I’m just sitting around waiting for Arenas’ contract to expire. Only about 2000 more days to go.