There are a few submissions that I should edit. And I want to say something about all that happened at the Western Economic Association meetings. But how about we have a conversation about the Rob Parker story that the Nets are pursuing Joe Dumars.
The decisions Dumars has made recently haven’t really worked out in Detroit. And there isn’t an abundance of evidence that the Pistons have a real plan to get better in the near future. Of course, can Detroit do better than Dumars? I am not sure.
– DJ
Posted in: Basketball Stories
Wages of Wins Journal 
brgulker
July 5, 2010
Dumars has been Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde. Personally, I’m one more bad move away from believing that Dumars hast lost it.
Pritchard is available. He’s assembled a nice team in Portland but has a bad reputation. I’m still hoping (against hope?) that Dumars can turn one of our unproductive scorers into some useful big man. We’ll see.
PM
July 5, 2010
Something changed in Detroit, something ownership-related. Dumars is not allowed to be the same person anymore, starting with the Gordon/Villaneuva summer. Before that, he was allowed to be a real GM, and he was great. After that, maybe the goal has been solely to make the team more marketable in some weird non-winning sense, and that’s been his benchmark, rather than the Rip/Tay/CB/BW/RW etc. slam dunks of his past.
arturogalletti
July 5, 2010
I was going to say Pritchard too. Better for everyone else if it’s Detroit and not the Russian that gets him.
marparker
July 6, 2010
I’m for anything that keeps the Lakers from winning another championship.
There championships are based on swindles. Kobe for Vlade and Pau for his fat brother. I cannot route for these Mensa assholes. They just run circles around the rest of the league in every way, shape, and form.
reservoirgod
July 6, 2010
I do not understand the love Pritchard gets from stat geeks that don’t work for Portland or live in the Pacific Northwest. No playoffs series won & he passed on Durant – probably the team’s only legit shot to get a .300 player until CP3 decides to leave New Orleans. What is so great about Pritchard?
marparker
July 6, 2010
resoirvoir,
Oden has outproduced Durant per minute. Now, the guy is always injured but he outproduced Durant by every metric per minute.
marparker
July 6, 2010
Thats not to say that Durant doesn’t have the higher ceiling. I was wrong about him just being a little above average as a pro. Really wrong.
brgulker
July 6, 2010
Josh Smith might be available? http://nba.fanhouse.com/2010/07/05/shaq-weighing-offer-from-hawks-to-join-johnson/
Potentially one of the biggest moves (from a WoW perspective) of the summer if he gets moved in favor of Shaq.
PM,
Karen Davidson is on record as of last week saying that she hasn’t restricted Dumars ability to spend money in any way, and he’s on record (since last season even) saying that he plans to spend the MLE and biannual exception. It’s a nice conspiracy theory, but there’s not a lot of evidence for it.
arturogalletti
July 6, 2010
Duhon to Orlando. Pretty good move. Looks like the rumor about CP3,Posey & Okafor for Nelson,Carter and Lewis might have some legs.
It would be highway robbery if it happens. I’d put money on orlando winning the championship.
coachbean
July 6, 2010
Presti should jump on Josh Smith being available. Say Josh Smith to OKC, with Green (the name), Harden(the talent), and Mullens (the cap filler) to Atlanta might work. Atlanta gets some young talent, some salary felxibility (short term contacts), while OKC gets to contend for an NBA championship. If I were Atlanta’s GM I wouldn’t be stupid enough to fall for this trade, but then again if I were Atlantas GM I wouldn’t be stupid enough to get rid of a stud like Smith to make room for a broken down Shaq.
Russell
July 6, 2010
As to Oden vs. Durant, according to automated WOW, Oden had a better WP48 than Durant when putting his 500 minutes last season up against Durant’s 39.5 minutes per game over 82 games (most minutes played in the NBA). Even when Oden was healthy, he was only playing 23 minutes a game. I know WOW seems to disparage this line of thinking (maybe I’m misunderstanding that), but can’t everyone agree that it is more difficult to play at a high level for almost 40 minutes a game for 82 games than for 24 minutes a game for 21 games? The fastest marathon run on record’s per mile time is significantly slower than the world record set for fastest single mile run in 1865 and much, much slower to the more recent world record.
If a player’s production does not start dropping off at some time (probably depending on the player) for playing nonstop without rest during a 48 minute game, then every coach in modern professional basketball has made a huge mistake for subbing out their best players. Every player who has asked to come out has been playing selfishly, and the theory that seemed to gain popular support on this board that the Celtics had greater than predicted success in the playoffs was not because they were misjudged by WP48, but because they had rested adequately so they could replicate their early season production, is totally erroneous.
If a player’s stats really remain the same regardless of usage and fatigue, the Celtics could likely go 82-0 next season if Kendrick Perkins plays 48 minutes a game and takes 75 shots.
All that being said, last season, when Oden played more than 1000 minutes (with Durant still playing well over 1/3 more minutes per game), Oden’s WP48 was lower than Durant’s 2008-2009 WP48 according to automated wins produced.
Durant played over twice as many minutes at a very high level this season than Oden has simply played in his entire career. That doesn’t really have anything to do with the statement about Oden’s metrics vs. Durant’s metrics, but I think it is worth pointing out.
I think it is silly to blast Portland’s old GM for not being able to predict that Oden would have so, so many injury problems. However, I also think that even when comparing Durant and Oden at their healthiest, the absolute best case you can make for Oden is that there is not enough evidence available in box scores to determine which one of them is better.
If you are nice enough to read this entire ramble and wish to respond, if you start it with “define ‘high level,'” I won’t return your favor.
I feel like Big Fan’s Paul from Staten Island.
marparker
July 6, 2010
I think Durant is better than Oden. I’m just not going to take it to Pritchard for drafting Oden when he’s been very good when healthy.
Durant has had a very steep curve upon entering the NBA. Oden has been very useful the minute he stepped on the court. He just can’t stay on the court.
I still would have taken Noah over both but thats just me.
nerdnumbers
July 6, 2010
Russell,
“there is not enough evidence available in box scores to determine which one of them is better.”
Very diplomatic. I actually hope most people here wouldn’t disagree with a line of saying “I’d rather have had Durant on my team and currently would rather have him on my team”. His second half last year was frightening and OKC is obviously expected to do great things next year.
From a WoW perspective I think the important part is something you pointed out. As a WP48 user I do not consider Oden a draft bust or a mistake. Adam Morrison was a draft mistake.
Bowie and Oden were good picks that had some hardships. Both had prior injuries and some may argue management should have known better. Looking back through time though Bird (3 Champs), Walton (2 Champs) had prior injuries and Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson both missed most of their second seasons with injuries. So even that logic can be hard to use. Basically you can get unlucky with good players(Yao and T-Mac) and lucky with bad players (Morrison has a title!)
Anyway if both Oden and Durant come back and play at their current levels next year and Oden stays healthy it will be a sad day for other teams in the Northwest division (like my Nuggets who want to resign Melo and Kleiza)
bduran
July 6, 2010
Total Wins Produced is of course very important. WP48 is often used when comparing players because the minutes a player plays often isn’t determined by a players ability to play those minutes. Sometimes it seems that a coach seems to play an inferior player more often. It really depends on the situation whether or not WP48 of Wins Produced is better.
For example, if there is a healthy bench player getting 15 minutes behind a starting getting 30+, you’d want to use WP48 to see if the coach is making the right decision on who to start.
Clearly in the Oden vs Durant case you would want to look at Wins Prdocued since Oden has been unable to play more minutes, regardless what his coach and team want.
I think the reason otheres are bringing up Oden’s WP48 is to say that he’s not such a bad pick and would likely be producing at a very high level right now if only he had been able to stay healthy. Not that Oden is better than Durant.
coachbean
July 6, 2010
I agree WP48 is great for comparing how minutes are allocated to players on the same team, and for predicting future performance. But Wins Produced is a much better metric for comparing players on different teams who play different positions.
arturogalletti
July 6, 2010
I hate repeating myself but durability is a skill. Oden is a flubbed pick because he can’t stay on the court. I do think that he was a homerun try and I can understand the logic of the pick.
Shawn Ryan
July 6, 2010
-Arturo
On draft day 2007, I think I would have pegged Durant as the more likely to have an injury plagued career.
Durant had Shaun Livingston’s body, the year that Livingston injured his knee.
Shawn Ryan
July 6, 2010
*Durant had Shaun Livingston’s body, and 2007 was the year that Livingston injured his knee.
brgulker
July 6, 2010
I’m not convinced that durability is solely a skill. Certainly, biology plays a role. However, freak things happen in athletics; sometimes, accidents ruin careers.
reservoirgod
July 6, 2010
My point w/ bringing up Oden/Durant in the context of Pritchard is that he’s no different than the rest of the GMs in the league yet he’s treated differently by the media. Oden hasn’t played an entire season since high school… if Portland had Durant the last 3 years, then they’re a 60-win team last season (w/ home court advantage in the first round) and would more than likely have advanced to the 2nd round in AT LEAST one of the last 2 seasons.
Shawn Ryan
July 6, 2010
-Arturo
I do agree that durability is a skill to a degree. A player can condition his body to minimize the risk of injury should a potentially injury causing event occur, and he can avoid high injury risk situations like jumping in a crowd. I would put these qualities under the “Durability Skill” category. Still, injuries can happen to even the best prepared. I believe that events that are both unavoidable and potentially injury causing occur randomly, and that no players are completely impervious to them.
That being said, on the whole, it’s hard to say which players have sustained injuries that they could have avoided, and which have sustained injuries that were unavoidable.
On the whole I agree with you from a before-the-fact point of view, a player has to work to minimize his risk of getting injured. After the fact though, in many cases, I have trouble condemning a player who has been injured as injury prone. These matters are rarely black and white.
Again in the case of Oden and Durant, on draft day, I don’t think there was anything to indicate that Oden would have his current of injuries (he had been injured in college, but it was his left hand, if I recall correctly, and not a lower extremity, which would be of special concern for a man that size). Similarly, I don’t think that there was any particular reason to predict that Durant would play 96% of the games his first 3 seasons.
Alvy
July 6, 2010
How is durability a skill? I mean, I think I understand if you mean a players’ ability to stay healthy and find ways to continue to be productive even after their athletic ability has diminished (Grant Hill, Kobe, MJ, Camby, Nash, Kidd, etc.) but I don’t know how much Bynum or Oden’s injuries correlate with how much they perfected their durability skill. There may some truth to this skill when one considers how poorly Elton Brand now plays, or to what play Manu and KG exhibited in 2010, but if durability is a skill why the hell aren’t qualities like leadership and mental toughness skills?
bduran
July 6, 2010
When people say durability is a skill, I take it to mean that some players are better able to stay healthy. Not necessarily just because of something they are doing to minimize injury, but because of genetics and such as well. I guess we should say durability has value, and it does.
Oden is likely a bust, although he still has a chance, but I’m not gonna rag on Prtichard for drafting such a talented player.
brgulker
July 6, 2010
I would agree with this, as far as it goes. The problem is, freak things happen; there’s no way to predict a freak accident.
It seems to me that the durability component in hindsight, i.e., when one is evaluating the value of a player’s career as it winds down, the GOAT, etc. Bill Walton would be a great example. Had he managed to stay healthy, how great would he have been?
However, it’s hardly useful when trying to predict how good a prospect will be. Who could have known Greg Oden would have been crippled by injuries? Had we known, his per minute value would have been near meaningless, no matter how amazing it is/would be.
To call it a skill seems to overstate it, at least to me. Certainly, durability has value. Kobe’s “ability” to play so many minutes over the course of his career only enhances his value. Wade’s “inability” to stay healthy mitigates his fantastic per minute production.
An interesting research question might be: are players who have sustained a major injury more likely to have another one in the future? That answer might have some bearing on whether or not durability is actually a “skill” or simply just luck of the draw.
brgulker
July 6, 2010
*durability component is valuable in hindsight…
todd2
July 6, 2010
Too early too tell with Oden. He’s definitely not earning his keep now, but that can change. The early part of Ilgauskas’ career was a nightmare due to injuries.
arturogalletti
July 6, 2010
All,
My point on durability has to do with the fact that some players have an ability to stay on the court and play through injuries (Kobe, Malone and Dirk are three names that come to mind) and others can’t. Yes Oden has the basketball ability to be a great player but his body has not allowed him to stay on the court. In hindsight, taking him over Durant is an understandable decision and not even in the top ten of bad draft day calls.
As for the study on injuries, I think it would be fascinating but a pain to build. Might be something to do when I have some time.
reservoirgod
July 6, 2010
Brgulker – I think this whole blog is based on gleaning insight from hindsight and I’m pretty sure Paul Allen evaluated Pritchard’s past performance using hindsight. I just don’t see a bright future in POR w/ or w/out Pritchard. Five of their best 7 players are injury-prone and/or coming off debilitating injuries, they’ve had to start trading off their younger players to stay competitive and players are starting to become disenchanted w/ their roles (i.e. Fernandez, Miller). As the great Michael Ray Richardson said, “the ship be sinkin’.”