As David Biderman noted in the Wall Street Journal, King James, Flash, and Chris Bosh (who needs a nickname) are maybe one of the best trios in NBA history. Last season, James, Wade, and Bosh produced 56.7 wins [James 27.2, Wade 17.8, Bosh 11.7]. That mark – as the following table indicates — would have ranked 5th all-time for the top three players on a team since 1977.
Player performance is impacted by age. If we factor in the impact of age – and how many games these players have played across their respective careers – we would expect this trio to produce 54.5 wins next season [LeBron 27.9, Wade 14.4, Bosh 12.2]. That would also be the 5th best mark for a trio.
One might think that having a top trip guarantees a team a title (and certainly I am inclined to favor the Heat in 2010-11, although we still don’t know everyone’s roster). Only six of the top 20 trios, though, actually won a title. All but one of these (the Lakers in 1980) employed Michael Jordan. Five additional teams lost in the NBA Finals. So having a top trio does seem to lead to playoff success, although perhaps not as much as fans of Miami might like.
That being said, this trio is much better than anything we saw last year. The top trio from last year was employed by the Cavaliers (James, Varejao, Mo Williams). This trio combined for 40.1 wins. The Lakers — who won the title — were led by Gasol, Odom, and Kobe. This trio produced 40.0 wins (ranked 2nd in the league).
And here is one more observation, that may or may not be applicable (but I like histoy, so I am throwing this out there). As I noted in the comments just moments before we learned of LeBron’s destination, the construction of the 2010-11 Heat reminds me of the 1996-97 Houston Rockets. For those who don’t remember, the Rockets allocated a bit more than $19 million to Hakeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler, and Charles Barkley. The remaining eleven players were paid about $7 million, with eight players earning the NBA minimum. In 1995-96, Hakeem, Drexler, and Sir Charles combined to produce 45.2 wins. And Drexler only played 52 games in 1995-96. If you believed Drexler could play an entire season in 1996-97 – and maintain his per-minute performance – then one would expect this trio to combine for 50 wins.
Unfortunately, that’s not what happened. In 1996-97 this trio produced only 38.9 wins (Barkley 16.4, Drexler 12.4, and Olajuwon 10.0). The remaining members of the team only produced 14.2 additional wins. And the Rockets eventually fell to the Utah Jazz in the Western Conference finals.
It is important to note that Houston’s trio were all at least 33 years old. So unlike the Heat’s trio, age was a very big factor back in 1996 for the Rockets. So perhaps what we saw in Houston 15 years ago is not entirely applicable. Still, I thought I would just toss that historical episode out there for discussion.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
Statement
July 8, 2010
As a raptors fan, I gotta say that it kind of sucks that we paved the way for this by giving Miami the cap flexibility via the JO trade to pull this off.
Time for a rebuild in Raptors land, given that I don’t think they will be able to beat this young trio at least for the next 5 years.
Realistically though, I don’t think the Raptors were going to win anything in the next 5 years anyways.
kevin
July 8, 2010
FWIW, the Heat are going to be unbelievably hard to beat.
marparker
July 8, 2010
I think you asked the wrong question prof. How many teams have ever employed a .4, and a .3 player at the same time.
I can only remember the Bulls doing that. But I could be forgetting some other players. Is there any chance you know the answer prof?
kevin
July 8, 2010
I’m pretty sure that Chamberlain and West on the 69 Lakers would qualify. Baylor was up there then too.
marparker
July 8, 2010
Also the league offensive rating is 107.
Bosh is a career 113(117 high) being the first banana.
Lebron is a career 113(122 high) being a first banana.
Wade is a career 111(115) being a first banana.
The best team in the league had a 115 rating last year with zero good defenders on their team(Phoenix).
I think we might see Miami already be better than Phoenix offensively and at least and above average offensive team.
How many teams have a lead guy with a 120 offensive rating with two other guys who are capable of being highly efficient without help?
I think we are severely under estimating what we might see.
Jimbo
July 8, 2010
Poor Cleveland
ilikeflowers
July 8, 2010
First of all, kudos to Pat Riley. Secondly, Mike Brown’s inability to play his best players, in addition to likely costing the city of Cleveland a championship this year, has now cost them multiple future championships. It’d be interesting to see coaches rated on how well their minute allocation by position agrees with wp48. This is more important than whether or not they improve player performance IMO.
Assuming 36 minutes from each of these players (optimistic for Wade), an average of 0.050 everywhere else, and ignoring diminishing returns and age (optimistic again) gives a likely ceiling of 67 games. If they can up the supporting cast roster to around 0.075 then they’re essentially a lock for the title barring injury of course.
arturogalletti
July 8, 2010
I already went over this but we need to see how they fill out the roster.
The espn projection of 66 wins is annoying me.
As currently configured (Chalmers,Wade, LBJ,Beasley,Bosh) they’re a 50 win team. If they can get a couple of other guys they may have something (and if the cap filler doesn’t kill them).
ilikeflowers
July 8, 2010
Anybody know if Mike Miller can play small forward? Of course between LBJ and Wade you have all the ball handling and assists that you need, so they could still play Miller and Wade at the same time. Is there any way that they get Miller too?
55
July 8, 2010
“essentially a lock for the title barring injury of course.”
I would imagine that their title odds even in an optimistic scenario max out around 40%. You always take the field.
ilikeflowers
July 8, 2010
If they somehow get a supporting cast of 0.075 (not gonna happen) then you go ahead and take the field and I’ll take the Heat.
marparker
July 8, 2010
Can’t you play Wade at PG and Miller at SG and then LBJ at SF
Dino Gunners
July 8, 2010
I think i figured out the new nickname for Chris Bosh…
The Third Wheel
marparker
July 8, 2010
This trio will be called
3 live crew. You can guarantee it.
Shawn Ryan
July 8, 2010
As a fan of basketball, I love this. Wade and James play tremendously with each other for team USA. Bosh is also a very good player, perhaps not the third best player in the league, but undoubtedly very solid.
I would love to see them add Mike Miller, but he will undoubtedly be able to get paid more elsewhere. If they do happen to get him, I really don’t think that position matters. You would have three extremely good ball handlers in your back court, it wouldn’t really matter who brings the ball up which two play the wings.
jbrett
July 8, 2010
In the NY Mets’ expansion draft, Casey Stengel’s first pick was catcher Hobie Landrith. “You gotta have a catcher,” Stengel explained when queried by the press. “If you don’t have a catcher, you’re gonna have a lot of passed balls.”
I don’t have a point, so much as I have a lot of trivia trapped in my brain–but if I did have a point, it would be that someone has to play the other two positions. It is also helpful if they don’t make you worse. And I’m sticking with my ‘matchups matter’ theory I lifted from Billy Beane; if someone can hold their own with the new Big Three, while severely outplaying the supporting cast, anything can happen in the playoffs.
That said, I think the only way the Lakers can compete is if Bynum becomes the kind of player we’ve seen in spurts–and healthier, so an unlikely scenario. Boston will win the PG slot, but you take Wade over Allen, LBJ over Pierce, and at this point Bosh over KG (maybe a push–this year). Perkins over anybody isn’t enough to make the difference.
Chicago? Rose and Noah get better, Deng returns to his best form, Boozer is better than Bosh overall but NOT a good matchup–I don’t see it happening. Orlando is better at C and maybe PG, but they have a pair of lemon-asses at SG and PF (and I may be insulting lemon-asses everywhere).
I have to believe that it will take bad luck AND bad decisions to keep the Heat from making the Finals at a minimum.
arturogalletti
July 8, 2010
I just did the wp48 analysis with the current heat lineup (Chalmers,Wade, Lebron,Beasley & Bosh) and filled out the roster with the average value for 9th or 10th men on the rotation by Minutes Played from 2006 to 2010 (click my name for the full version & tables). 63 Wins (I was totally surprised).
Even if they don’t get Mike Miller or trade Beasley for something. These guys will be going to the finals multiple times in the next 5 years.
Michael
July 8, 2010
Dan Gilbert is pissed.
http://www.nba.com/cavaliers/news/gilbert_letter_100708.html
realsupergirl
July 8, 2010
Heat won’t even make it to the Finals. Bosh is a poor defender who didn’t like playing C in Toronto and will now be guarding the other team’s C night in and night out. Can’t wait for Howard to abuse him.
Wade is good, and Lebron is phenomenal, but these guys are demanding big money and will leave the Heat with no money for anyone else. Lakers, Bulls, Spurs…these teams won because they had role players and a TEAM. Lakers tried the 4 Hall of Fame team that was better than this trio on paper…and FAILED.
This trade makes me sick. The NBA has become all about money, and players don’t understand the value of their leadership and their team to a community. The NBA needs more players like Tim Duncan and Paul Pierce…not more like Lebron James.
Also – making a big drama on national TV so you can dump the city that paved the way for your ass for so many years? – total asshole move.
Alvy
July 8, 2010
This is incredible, I think all of the wp/48 assessment might just underestimate how great this team will be (i could already imagine stats like assists and fg% increasing while turnovers decreasing). On another note, it’s going to feel pretty good rooting for, what already appears, the lesser evil of the two teams.
ae
July 8, 2010
how rational from a wins projection model was LBJ’s decision to chose MIA over the other suitors? can we get a post comparing win projections for the LBJ sweepstakes? for example what’s the win projection of LBJ @ CHI vs LBJ @ MIA vs LBJ @ NY etc. thanks!
reservoirgod
July 8, 2010
I agree w/ jbrett but will add one caveat – if KG can outplay Bosh then BOS has a chance to beat MIA. But he’s their only chance. MIA will need Bosh to be the wolf he talked about on ESPN in order to beat BOS & LAL for the title.
jbrett
July 8, 2010
realsupergirl,
Can’t argue with the hubris of the TV show (hey, Cavs’ fans, here’s a bowl of crap and a spoon; enjoy!), but not sure about the rest. LA had 4 HOFers AND a bench, and might have been a Mailman injury from a title. Can’t see as it’s about money, either; 2 guys left money on the table by NOT staying at home. Bosh may get toasted in specific matchups but, even as a PF playing C, he’s still an upper-echelon C–and maybe one or both of the rookie C’s becomes serviceable. I’d really like to agree with you–right, Alvy?–but these guys have a shot at a scary run.
robbieomalley
July 8, 2010
Mike Miller and Miami Heat agree to 5 year 30 million.
So the heat have locked up Wade, Bosh, James, Miller for the next five seasons. WoW, indeed.
nerdnumbers
July 8, 2010
Ae,
Robbie O’Malley is so cool he predicted your request and did it:
http://robbieomalley.wordpress.com/2010/07/07/lebrons-lechoices/
Alvy,
If Miami gets the same WP48 from last year (unlikely) AND plays the new big three all 48 minutes of each game(also unlikely) then they would win over 70 games on their own!
Also anyone want to take this bet with Dan Gilbert?
“I PERSONALLY GUARANTEE THAT THE CLEVELAND CAVALIERS WILL WIN AN NBA CHAMPIONSHIP BEFORE THE SELF-TITLED FORMER ‘KING’ WINS ONE”
robbieomalley
July 8, 2010
source is jalen rose so i could be wrong
Alvy
July 8, 2010
Apparently, Miller will sign with the Heat. LOL, good thing I’m going off to college, right?
jbrett
July 8, 2010
Yeah, WoW. Essentially Beasley for Miller, plus a second-round pick, PLUS a first-round swap WITH THE T-WOLVES? Hope for Minnesota’s sake it’s top-three protected.
Not sure any one person is calling all the shots here, but there’s ample credit to go around. I’ll throw another potential parallel out there: the Indianapolis Olympians–maybe the last time a group of players decided they wanted to play together, and made it happen. That one ended in tears because of the college game-fixing scandals; before they were banned, Groza and Beard were serious stars.
Alex
July 8, 2010
Let’s say this Miami super-team puts up a great point differential, like an 8. Then let’s say that they have home court against the 8 seed in the East with a differential of 0, the 4 seed with a 1.5, and the 2 seed with a 5.5 (roughly how things have gone recently, and similar to what Cleveland went through last year if you ignore that they lost to Orlando). In the Finals they face a Western team with a differential of 6. The model that I’ve used with pretty decent success would give Miami the following chances of winning each series: 97%, 95%, 79%, and 76%. Overall they’d have about a 55% chance of winning the championship; the number would be lower if they face stronger opponents. So you’d have to pick them to win it all, but it certainly isn’t a guarantee.
ilikeflowers
July 8, 2010
I’m seeing many sites reporting the Mike Miller to the Heat news, of course they could all be using the same incorrect source. I hope it’s for real, that’s a 400, 300 and 2 x 200. That leaves open C or PF for a non-scoring rebound specialist – AKA cheap production. It won’t happen, but it’d be hilarious if Ben Wallace signed just for another ring and the weather.
bags fly free
July 8, 2010
so with Miller signed is it almost guaranteed the rest of the roster will be total shit due to almost zero money left? i could see this trio playing a lot of mins and out of position just to compensate for lack of support. i hope pat riley knows what hes doing
robbieomalley
July 9, 2010
My BFF,
They can sign veterans to the minimum and exceed the cap. So it is reasonable to believe someone like Ben Wallace would be an option.
tk
July 9, 2010
i really hoped mike miller would take the money and sign in NY, but alas its not going to happen.
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
If their wp48’s hold, isn’t this the best starting 4 of all time already? To add someone like Wallace who’ll be expected to be around 150+ would be ridiculous.
robbieomalley
July 9, 2010
The source everyone is citing is that some South Dakota news source interviewed Mike Millers dad and he said Miller would sign with Heat.
Semi-questionable.
robbieomalley
July 9, 2010
WoW. Dan Gilbert’s letter actually made Mel Gibson uncomfortable.
Italian Stallion
July 9, 2010
I have to say, I think this whole process was kind of despicable.
It’s bad enough to leave your hometown team, but to torture them for several weeks and then hold a one hour nationally televised “decision” more or less maximized their pain in some kind of twisted effort to advance a personal agenda.
It’s hard to image someone could be this much of an asshole.
From a basketball point of view, I’m sure I’m going to get trashed by someone for going outside statistics to the intangibles of greatness , but this decision diminishes James in my eyes.
I think in “great player terms” (not mere mortal terms) he is psychologically flawed.
Virtually every single “alpha level” great player wants to be “the man” to LEAD THEIR TEAM to a championship. They actually seem to be attracted to the risk and challenge because it makes the reward so great. They all know they need a great supporting cast, but there’s little doubt whose team it is.
Those that try and fail eventually leave and search for titles only AFTER they have aged and know they can no longer be “the guy” to do it.
By leaving at his peak to join forces with Wade (another Alpha that already won his ring), Lebron seems to be putting winning ahead of proving the kind of greatness that other great players respect.
It would have been tough to win in Cleveland without a couple of changes, but they weren’t that far away.
On NBA TV Reggie Miller, Charles Barkley, Kevin McHale and several other players all but called him a pussy (although in a very professional manner) for going this route. I tend to agree with them.
They more or less said he’s the best player in the NBA but these championships will be worth less in their eyes than had he won a single one for the Cavs by being the lead dog surrounded by quality players.
Many questioned his performance in the Celtics series. It wasn’t so much missing shots etc… (they all miss) but the heart he demonstrated and the way he played. People were dumbfounded.
I think that was the first glimpse of a truly great talent that’s missing one of the less tangible elements of true greatness. Tonight he revealed it in spades by taking the easy way out at the peak of physical talents instead of staying with the Cavs or even going to the Bulls.
robbieomalley
July 9, 2010
IS,
I agree with you that “The Decision” on ESPN was wayyy over the top. It was very bad taste, IMO. But other than that I feel like he’s getting wayyyyyyy too much criticism. I’m currently writing a post about it that should be up by tomorrow.
Edmond
July 9, 2010
Pat Riley better sell some of those fancy suits and invest in a super-world-class training staff. With such a top-heavy roster, two of whose members are Mike Miller and D. Wade–yikes.
robbieomalley
July 9, 2010
http://robbieomalley.wordpress.com/2010/07/09/lebrons-going-to-need-more-fingers-for-all-those-rings/
Alvy
July 9, 2010
IS,
you’re probably one of the few who is actually viewing this event from a different perspective. as weird as this sounds, basically most forums wherein stats are the focus, every player is discussed as a producer, not really a person, so it’s always very interesting to see results one would build in a science lab, as oppose to consider the psyche of the subject, but i wonder, what do several of you genuinely think about lebron james after making this decision? what does it say that the best players in the NBA truly believe that superstars are the key to championships (Boston Celtics) as opposed to “cores” that a team farmed (Spurs, maybe OKC in a few years)? I guess WoW really won’t be able to differential this perspective (much less care), but then again, less than half the basketball world is probably aware of Wins Produced, so an opinion, however personal, is still asked.
kevin
July 9, 2010
Does it really matter, Alvy, whether a player is drafted or comes over as a free agent? Why are people upset with James for doing this? To me, it shows he’s more interested in winning than being “The Man”, as IS put it. I respect that. It’s a bitter pill to swallow for the Cavs but it is what it is. Professional sports is a brutal, dog-eat-dog Darwinian business.
Of course, as good as Wade is, he’s going to have to understand that LeBron will be “The Man”.
And I think he will. I see no reason why the 3 of them won’t play beautifully together. Winning cures all ills.
Chicago Tim
July 9, 2010
Why couldn’t Chicago get Mike Miller! Arrgh!
kevin
July 9, 2010
The joys of Schadenfreude:
My ex-wife is from Cleveland.
Thanks, LeBron. Thanks, man. You made my day, amigo. If you’re ever in town, give me a ring and I’ll throw a shrimp on the barbie for ya.
marparker
July 9, 2010
So it’s ok to luck into playing with amazing players but if you make your own luck and choose to play with amazing players there is something wrong with that? People are amazing. I’m trying to understand where this logic that this guy is supposed to just play the hand that is dealt to him is coming from.
For those who think some kind of diminishing returns are going to happen these aren’t your typical high wow players who grab loads of rebounds and never shoot. These are guys who are superior in multiple categories.
Bosh was the leading rebounder on the 08′ olympic team. Wade and James were the two leading scorers. They shot 67 and 60 percent respectively. James was second in assists. These guys are not going to get in each other’s way, they are going to exacerbate each other’s best abilities.
Finally, for those who forget their recent NBA history.
Kobe demanded a trade in 07 before the memphis faux paus while calling Bynum a bum who couldnt play. Where were his alpha male instincts? Now we are all praising him for his alpha male instincts? The guy was trying everything possible to get out of LA, he just couldn’t do it. Let’s all forget that though.
Larry Bird was drafted by a very good team.
Magic Johnson was drafted by a very good team.
Tim Duncan was drafted by a very good team.
Kobe Bryant was drafted by a very good team.
Hakeem Olajuwon was drafted by a very good team.
Only Jordan(the GOAT) started with a sorry team and went on to win championships. Please top criticizing the man for not trying to reinvent the wheel.
kevin
July 9, 2010
“Kobe demanded a trade in 07 before the memphis faux paus while calling Bynum a bum who couldnt play. Where were his alpha male instincts? Now we are all praising him for his alpha male instincts? The guy was trying everything possible to get out of LA, he just couldn’t do it. Let’s all forget that though.”
This quote by marparker encapsulates the sins of Kobe, IMO. He puts himself before the team. In basketball, there is no bigger transgression.
Well, maybe killing the coach would be a bigger transgression. But what Kobe does comes in second.
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
Just updated my analysis with Mike Miller and assuming typical 9th or 1oth guys by MP. (click my name for table goodness)
66.5 Wins.
It’s over man, it’s freakin over.
God help everyone else in the league if a veteran Center decides to take the minimum to get one more ring than Kobe (no points for guessing who I mean).
Alvy
July 9, 2010
The reason why I asked such a question was because NBA culture, for how …terrible it is, finds LeBron James, a player considered among Magic and Jordan, to be a “failure” because he decided to not stay with the team that originally drafted him before ever winning a title. I doubt I understand how “loyalty” works or is perceived, but several NBA figures are somehow offended by this particular move. I suspect because Magic, Jordan, Hakeem, Kobe, Bird, Miller, and so forth either won a title with the team that drafted them, were from a small market, or retired with the same team. To add, Bird Rights, and the philosophy of “building around your star” somehow agree with this culture.
Personally, I don’t care where LeBron James went, I’m sure that I’ve stated how great this Heat team will be and am looking forward to watch this freak team execute. I’ve never been a “fan,” nor do I intend to, so it’s fair to say I haven’t bothered to outwardly judged him for his decision, although I would agree with marparker.
I do share a more populace view of the NBA, but let’s get serious, not every NBA player, as illustrated by WoW, is created equal. Unfortunately, some can place themselves before their team, and as we’ve seen, maybe their fans also.
marparker
July 9, 2010
Alvy just wrote the most appropriate post apocalypse comment I’ve read.
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
Now after it happnend, I think Lebron got it right.
The more moves the Miami brain-trust does the more they look like they know exactly what they’re doing. Riley is dancing rings around the competition.According to my free agent tables (previously posted here) here’s the top eight FA:
LeBron James
David Lee
Dwyane Wade
Carlos Boozer
Mike Miller
Dirk Nowitzki
Yao Ming
Chris Bosh
Dirk & Yao weren’t going anywhere, so he got four of the remaining six to sign in Miami. That’s just unfair. He signed 59 wins a year at an average age of 26.75. He dumped Beasley and get’s to trade 1st round picks with David Khan. You can bet he’s going to take advantage of market inefficiencies to get undervalued bench guys to come to South Beach.
Surrender now for Riley is coming.
marparker
July 9, 2010
Woke up this morning with a Heat Jersey on.
Shawn Ryan
July 9, 2010
I don’t understand why anyone thinks that players should be loyal to teams. Teams certainly ARE NOT loyal to players!
Generally, as soon as a player (or coach, or less often a GM, for that matter) underperforms expectations, even if it’s completely due to injury (see Pritchard, Kevin), bye bye, he’s shipped off to who knows where, or fired, or cut.
And as for the “poor” Cavaliers fans, aren’t these the fans who somewhat recently booed the best player that they’ve ever had, at a home game, because he missed a lot of free throws? Last night Lebron talked about his true fans staying with him, and seem to be implying that Akron was a very important city to him, while Cleveland really wasn’t.
Anyway, I guess my point is that if the Cleveland fans saw a player combination that the team could trade Lebron for that would make the Cavs more likely to win a championship, they would do it in a heartbeat (same for any fans of any team), and really the only reason they were “loyal” to Lebron to any degree is that he is the best player in the league. If that’s the case, why should Lebron be expected not to have the very same mentality. He looked at his opportunities in each city, and decided that Miami gave him the best chance at winning multiple titles. And that’s ok.
Plus, he gave them three extra years, which Cleveland fans should be grateful for. The management certainly was not putting together a competent team at that time, if you recall. Really, of the 7 seasons he spent in Cleveland, the front office only gave him a decent supporting cast those last two years. He’s pulled produced half the wins for Cleveland for years, and not gotten to the finals. Why on earth would he not move on?
V
July 9, 2010
Can someone do an analysis on what the expected wins would have been if Lebron had gone to Chicago?
I would think that would have been the smarter move (especially given Wade’s injury history)…
Robbo
July 9, 2010
Dan Gilbert probably just alienated many NBA players. Dumping on your star player like that is not the right response to give. Showing your true colours Dan? LBJ gave your club 7 great years, show a little respect, gratitude and dignity.
Yeah, it’s hugely disappointing that he left, we get that, but you and CL aren’t entitled to him for life. Life’s like that, get over it and get on with the next.
Anyone believe that CL will win a title before LBJ? Nope, thought not. And after his rant today it’ll be even more difficult. He just created even more reasons for players to choose elsewhere.
Shawn Ryan
July 9, 2010
Oh wow, and I just now read Dan Gilbert’s open letter after writing the above comment. That really pisses me off.
Where does he get off calling the man without whom his team would have averaged 30 wins a season over the last decade a back stabber? You know, if you would have tried harder sooner, then maybe this never would have happened! I mean, his first act with the Cavaliers was to bring in Donyell Marshall, Damon Jones, and Larry Huges! He failed. He bought the team because it had Lebron James and coasted on Lebron’s greatness. He has no business blaming anyone but himself.
Be a man and take responsibility for the huge role you played in forcing Lebron to leave.
ae
July 9, 2010
@nerdnumbers-thanks for the link!
@V- I asked for a similar request and nerdnumbers posted a link to your request. Scroll up to find it.
Peter
July 9, 2010
From what I’m hearing around the news, it appears that Mike Miller is going to sign with Miami, basically with the space the team got for Beasley.
So that 55-win trio? It’s now a 65-win quartet.
Epic win for Miami.
Shawn Ryan
July 9, 2010
Oh, and hey everybody. Chris Bosh will not play center for this team, just rest your little heads. You know he doesn’t want to play Center, and he’s now on a team who’s primary occupation for the next 5+ years will be kissing superstar butt.
The Heat front office will find SOMEONE to start at center. Luckily it won’t be Jermaine O’Neal.
Shawn Ryan
July 9, 2010
Yeah, Magic Johnson has a right to criticize Lebron for leaving his team because his supporting cast wasn’t good enough. Magic had to endure all of those years with players like Kareem, and James Worthy.
Kareem & Worth = Varejao & Larry Huges right?
dberri
July 9, 2010
Here is an interesting thought experiment… are there available free agents who could sink the ship in Miami? In other words, could Miami hire a collection of negative wins producers and ruin the entire show?
Assuming Riley doesn’t do this (and I doubt that he will) does this make Riley one of the game’s best GMs? A certain book argues he is not of the game’s great coaches. But maybe there is a winner within something in Miami.
Michael
July 9, 2010
According to Hollinger, the Heat project to win about 56 games even if the rest of the roster is filled with replacement level guys.
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
Dave,
Is that a request? :-)
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
Michael,
66.5 as of now even with fodder (.049 WP48) filling the rest of the roster, click my name for the detail.
Shawn Ryan
July 9, 2010
Honestly, I don’t see the Heat signing a huge negative producer. Mostly negative producers tend to be volume shooters, and also tend to be valued relatively highly, and presumably wouldn’t be affordable to the Heat.
Basically, I think the lack of cap space may be a good thing.
Michael
July 9, 2010
Arturo, Hollinger didn’t include Miller in his assessment….is he definitely going there?
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
Great city for rich folk – check
Awesome night life – check
Awesome winter weather – check
Almost naked chicks on beaches – check
Championship caliber basketball team – check
Unselfish alpha-dogs – check
No state income tax – check
Remember wow draft darling Richard Hendrix from a few drafts ago? He dominated the D-League in rebounding and now he’s dominating his euro-league in rebounding. If Miami could get him on the cheap, it’d be awesome. After Sheldon William’s dreadful couple of minutes in game 3 that (literally) cost the Celtics the game, he might be available cheap as well – he’s also just 26. Any other cheap rebounders/big bodies to be had other than Ben Wallace?
Anyone else recall Riles talking about the super-secret stat analysis that they do in Miami a few years ago?
nerdnumbers
July 9, 2010
Arturo + DJ,
If the Heat lose 10 games from Arturo’s estimate (diminishing returns e.g.) AND they hire the worst players that played significant minutes for the remaining 7K minutes they need to fill. . . they could drop to a 40 game season from my rough estimates. That would be the single most impressive GM feat to assemble arguably the greatest starting 5 from FA and the worst bench from FA in the same season.
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
Hendrix is 6’8″, 250 and 23.
marparker
July 9, 2010
Can someone please make a thread with all the season predictions at the beginning of the season please?
You can put me down for
“Heat will win 70 games easily as long as the big 3 win play at least 70 games each”-Marparker July 9,2010
Shawn Ryan
July 9, 2010
I guess, if for some reason the heat signed Malik Allen as a starter, that could have pretty devastating consequences, and not entirely impossible given Miami’s situation.
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
prof,
Here’s something from TrueHoop:
Meanwhile, Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference calculates that statistical plus/minus suggests the Heat could win 68 games by filling the roster with scrubs.
But he points out that the performance of big three in Boston when Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen first arrived was underestimated by every model except one: adjusted plus/minus.
Now, a broken clock’s right twice a day, but I still have trouble believing this. Although the details aren’t given so ultimately that statement could mean many things.
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
DJ,
Posted (click above). The Brutal Five (the worst possible free agents:Jannero Pargo,Bobby Brown
Mark Blount,Jason Kapono,Jared Jeffries) knock em down to 48. But that’s just not happening.
ILF,
Miami is now the official team of WoW. Hello Mr. Riley, I hope you’re having a nice day. :-).
If they get Shelden Williams they might not lose ten games.
Chicago Tim
July 9, 2010
arturogalletti
I agree with you that LeBron got it right, even if on paper Chicago seemed the better bet. But if Chicago had gotten Mike Miller, I’m not sure I would agree. I still don’t understand why the Bulls couldn’t double the salary offered by the Heat. And if they didn’t recognize the need to do so, well, then LeBron really got it right, much as it pains me to say so.
The Heat are still overpaying for Bosh and slightly overpaying for Wade, but LeBron and Miller more than make up the difference.
DR
July 9, 2010
Bosh’s nickname is CB4, which is a Chris Rock movie reference.
todd2
July 9, 2010
Maybe it’s a typo prof, but that appears to be the case with the ’05-’06 Nets in the table above. As far as Riley goes, he’s had an abysmal draft record (he gutted the team a few years ago to get Beasly) and seems to be successful only at throwing money at free agents. Who should get credit for recent events, the GM or the players who colluded? I just noticed the Blazers team with a team WP of 69.9. Holy smokes! Rick Adelman? I felt James coming to MIA was a no-brainer; the weather, Wade, no state tax and high-end houses and condos within 10 minutes of AAA in every direction. Kobe takes a helicopter to Staples to avoid a 2 hour commute!
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
Even assuming that the Lakers win the west – this assumes that Portland remains injury prone and SA continues to underutilize Blair – there’s no way that they beat this team. Kobe’s gonna go crazy trying to outshine Wade and LBJ. As a result Gasol is going to be under-utilized even more than usual.
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
If Duncan and Ginobili can come close to their performances last year – if SA plays them and Blair 36 minutes a game and has a scrub average of 0.050 for the rest of the minutes, I have them with a reasonable ceiling of 64 games. They already have Hill who’s average and may improve some.
Chicago Tim
July 9, 2010
arturogalletti
The Bulls will probably resign Pargo. They love him. :-(
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
todd2,
Beasley was a good pick. Players with his college numbers usually turn into great players. Beasley just happens to be one of those who didn’t.
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
Giving LA 36 a game for Gasol, Odom, Bryant and 24 for Bynum + a scrub average of 0.05 for the rest of the minutes gives 62 games.
Chicago Tim
July 9, 2010
There’s still hope!
“There’s no agreement for Mike Miller in Miami, his agent, Bob Myers says. The Heat are still frontrunners over CHI and NY other sources say.”
–WojYahooNBA (twitter account for Adrian Wojnarowski, NBA writer for Yahoo! Sports)
And by the way, professor, when are you getting a twitter account? I’ll subscribe.
brgulker
July 9, 2010
If you guys haven’t seen it yet, Ty, over at The Courtside Analyst, has some great analysis of what these three did together during the Olympics. Scary for the rest of the NBA.
brgulker
July 9, 2010
I like Dr. Berri’s thought experiment. Veteran FAs who could be had for the minimum that could contribute or at least not contribute negative wins.
Ben Wallace comes to mind and would be the perfect fit, because he’s incredibly productive without scoring (or even needing the ball on offense at all).
Other guys I can think of that might be available for that price:
Shelden Williams
Jason Williams
Leon Powe (I think he is, right?)
Carlos Arroyo
Who else?
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
brbulker,
Wallace and Arroyo (who are both >.1 WP48) would be unfair (and Arroyo is realistic). Wallace would let Bosh not play C. 72 wins would be in play.
Scondren
July 9, 2010
Powe is under contract with the Cavs still, unless they cut him for some reason. He signed a two year deal last off season.
brgulker
July 9, 2010
Stumbled into a list of potential minimum players here: http://nbaroundtable.wordpress.com/2010/07/08/lebron-joins-miami-heat/
Guards — Carlos Arroyo (played with Miami last season), Roger Mason Jr, Eddie House (former Heat player), Anthony Carter (former Heat player), Flip Murray, Larry Hughes
Wings — Raja Bell, Rasual Butler (former Heat player), Keith Bogans, Quentin Richardson (played with Miami last season), Bobby Simmons, James Jones (played with Miami last season), Rodney Carney, Sasha Pavlovic, Trenton Hassell, Matt Barnes, Michael Finley, Antoine Wright
Big Men — Ben Wallace, Kwame Brown, James Singleton, Kurt Thomas (began career with Miami), Al Harrington, Shelden Williams, Rasho Nesterovic, Josh Powell, Etan Thomas, Adonal Foyle, Sean Marks, Jamaal Magloire (played with Miami last season), Theo Ratliff, Johan Petro, Brian Cardinal, Brian Scalabrine, Matt Bonner, Brian Skinner
Obviously this list doesn’t speak to Wins Produced (and I don’t have the time to look at the numbers), but it’s an interesting launching pad for discussion.
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
Miller’s the key now. Chicago should give him more money just to keep him from Miami. I have Chicago with Miller and 0.050 scrubs + no diminishing returns and Rose at 0.150 as a 65 win team. They have more money to give guys like Ben Wallace as well and they are the most likely to have a better than scrub average for the rest of the squad. If they get Miller I think that they become the favs for the title.
Brandon
July 9, 2010
Wow imagine if Lebron would have gone to the Bulls. It would have been like a 70-75 win team. I’m surprised no one has wrote a post on that.
Evan
July 9, 2010
I grew up during the age of Jordan, so I tend to compare players to that.
Jordan was pretty heavily criticized for not being able to beat the Pistons and win championships. People talked about how he wasn’t that good in the playoffs and lacked heart and blah blah blah. He just lacked a supporting cast. But he stuck around, kept playing and retired after winning his 6th championship.
23 also didn’t talk about his brand. He avoided controversy, didn’t make political endorsements, had no tattoos, and generally projected humility. He even took less money at one point to stay with the Bulls. He seemed like a nice guy who everyone could see a bit of himself in.
Lebron is abandoning his home city, which hasn’t won a major sports championship in multiples of Lebron’s lifetime. He holds a big “look at me! recruit me! tour. Then he has a one hour TV. Then he chooses a team where a championship is just about a foregone conclusion. I’m supposed to be impressed that a megalomaniac can win a championship like that?
I think it’s exceedingly bad form to indulge attentionwhoring while stabbing your hometown in the back (especially after numerous comments about how he does it all for Ohio, his heart will always be in Akron, blah blah blah)
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
Cleveland fans should be mad at the owner and the coach. They squandered their chances. If LeBron really wanted to stab Cleveland in the back he would’ve signed with Chicago to add to the heartbreak. If LBJ screwed up as a player like the Cavs did as an organization they would’ve traded LeBron away a while back. Even Bill Simmons could allocate minutes better and sign better players than the Cav’s did. The owner’s just being pissy because he knows he just lost a ton of money. The Cavs are getting what they deserve.
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
By the way a local source tells me that arroyo has a min offer from Miami , wants a ring and doesn’t want to move his family from Miami.
Add another 3 to 5 wins.
Italian Stallion
July 9, 2010
Mr Parker,
Only Magic Johnson and Kobe were really drafted to ready made great teams.
The others were drafted to either terrible teams they helped turn around or very good teams they eventually took over the top.
In case everyone is forgetting, the Cavs were the favorites to win it all the last 2 years.
He is not leaving a bad team looking for a ring.
He is leaving a team that won over 60 games two years in a row looking for an easy ring with Wade.
Kobe may have whined when he had a terrible team to lead in LA, but he never actually wanted to leave. He wanted help and they gave it to him (just as the Cavs did everything they could to appease Lebron).
Wade has been on a horrible team for a lot of years (especially the last few). He also understandably whined for help, but he never actually considered leaving this year and would have been thrilled to simply add Bosh and some role players.
This kid was exposed in the Celtics series, shied away from the bright lights of NY (referred to by both Donnie Walsh and Mike D’Antoni when they signed Amare), and now has run with tail between legs from his hometown at the age of 25 to Wade because he wants easy titles where most of the pressure will not be on him.
Sorry to knock a truly great talent, but stats or not he has been exposed.
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
Brandon, click on robbieomalley’s name for the Bulls and other team projections and add 25 wins from LBJ.
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
By the way Miami’s four possible min guys from brbulker’s list who played with them last Year (over last three seasons):
Player Team Proj Min Avg WP48 Proj Wins
Quentin Richardson MIA 1939 0.109 4.39
Carlos Arroyo MIA 1427 0.100 2.97
James Jones MIA 803 0.022 0.36
Jamaal Magloire MIA 451 0.008 0.07
Just Re-signing these guys to the minimum is worth 8 wins. Add some scrubs (.049 Wp48) and we get roughly 70 wins.
marparker
July 9, 2010
Firstly, Cleveland is not his hometown. I think the real backlash stems from our own line of thinking which states that athletes can’t choose to win, they must make the best of the hand that has been dealt to them. I look at him as a pioneer. He is the first bball player to jump ship while taking less money in order “make history”(his words via Twitter). I think we will see more of this. Because the League is on lock for the next 5 years unless some other guys also band together and take less money. Who can Chris Paul convince next off season? The Lakers threw down the gambit with their Gasol fleecing. Now everyone is going to have to follow suit.
FWIW, I think this might single help the NBA financials. Isn’t much of baseball kept afloat by the Red Sox and Yankees barnstorming tour excuse me road schedule.
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
No way IS. LeBron played great overall even while injured, that was a coaching fail all the way.
Evan
July 9, 2010
btw, espn is reporting that the Heat are giving away Beasley to the TWolves in exchange for a future 2nd round pick
brgulker
July 9, 2010
Evan,
Cleveland is not his hometown. Akron is. My wife grew up in Akron, and her whole family is there. People who live in Akron don’t feel any attachment to Cleveland as “home” in any way, shape, or form. “Abandonment” is not a fair argument from those who are making it (least of all, Gilbert).
I hope so. This FA bonanza set some scary precedents in my mind. I’m hoping that the only one that lasts is big name players pursuing wins over max contracts.
Italian Stallion
July 9, 2010
I should also add that this conversation should not be limited to Wade, Kobe, Jordan etc…
Barkley didn’t leave looking for a championship until he was crippled.
Malone stayed with Stockton until they were both shot.
Reggie Miller never left.
Patrick Ewing never left until he was a shell and wanted out for other reasons.
Gary Payton was done.
The list of great players that stayed the course as “the man” and either never got the ring or got it as a diminished player later on is very long. The list of those that left a great team at age 25 looking for an even better team contains only one name.
Italian Stallion
July 9, 2010
It’s technically not his hometown, but it would be like a kid from Long Island leaving the Knicks. It’s the same thing.
szr
July 9, 2010
Hey, Lee just signed with Golden State. We need to take a look at what that does for them.
Evan
July 9, 2010
Who do Akron NBA fans root for, brgulker?
I grew up in a different state than the closest NBA franchise. but we still rooted for them.
marparker
July 9, 2010
IS,
Why should Lebron lump himself in with Malone, Barkley, etc just because Cleveland management cant seem to understand that you need a shooting guard(one who can shoot or is very productive wow style or both) to win a championship.
Look where loyalty almost got KG. We need to stop expecting loyalties from players who are too good for the franchises that employ them.
All these other great players were part of an assembled team from one sided trades or unfair high draft choices except for Jordan. Noone is Michael Jordan, we just go through learning that with Kobe. Lebron is not Michael either. Noone is.
marparker
July 9, 2010
So because his “home team” lucked into the 1st pick the exact year he came out Lebron is now held to higher standard than every other player in the league ever. Give me a break
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
IS, so that’s a list of the greatest losers that you respect?
KG’s gotta be thinking about how many championships he would’ve won if only he’d left before age diminished him.
Employee’s should be as loyal as the corporations that employ them – i.e. not at all.
You can chalk all the player criticism up to fear and jealousy. Those who didn’t win a championship want to at least have the consolation that they won something by staying and they don’t want to be reminded that maybe they made a mistake by staying – they want to be able to keep the regrets at bay with some (any) plausible reason. And the champs don’t want to lose their status as the greatest this or that’s.
Italian Stallion
July 9, 2010
brgulker,
So tell me, what percentage of huge basketball fans from Akron do not root for the Cavs even though they supposedly feel no attachment to Cleveland?
What percentage of sports fans don’t get an incremental thrill if the star on their team is a local hero even if not from their own little town?
It’s not just the leaving that is at issue here. Sometimes people have to move on.
It’s that he dragged this process on for weeks and culminated it in a one hour TV slot that maximized the pain and disappointment for a lot of people.
That’s sort of like breaking the heart of a girl that you know loves you passionately by telling her shes not worthy and doing it in front of the whole world on the wedding day.
That makes you a douche.
What makes matters worse is that she was bright, funny, caring, beautiful girl that won over 60 games two years in a row.
I’m going to leave this and get back to basketball stats etc…, but to me he’s a clear cut asshole and diminished star. I can understand why some that are totally geared toward stats don’t understand the latter point, but the former is a no brainer.
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
And if I’m James the reaction of the owner let’s me know that I definitely made the right decision.
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
And we can dismiss IS’s criticism since he’s just mad that James didn’t sign with the Knicks.
Who care’s if he’s an asshole. So was Jordan. Heck Kobe might be a rapist, Malone got a 13 year old pregnant when he was in college – give them more of your hate, they’re more deserving of it.
55
July 9, 2010
“The list of great players that stayed the course as “the man” and either never got the ring or got it as a diminished player later on is very long. The list of those that left a great team at age 25 looking for an even better team contains only one name.”
Someone said this before, but WHY should LeBron want to join this list? As opposed to joining Magic, MJ, Kobe, Shaq, etc. as those who won multiple rings as one of the stars on extremely talented teams?
It’s free agency. They had 7 years to pair him with another star and they failed. He moved on, they should too.
nerdnumbers
July 9, 2010
55,
Magic got his coach fired for demanding a trade, and was hated by fans until he kept winning.
Jordan left his team in his prime to go play baseball, had extramarital affairs, paid off said affairs and had gambling problems.
Kobe had the rape charge, demanded trade.
Shaq ditched his team for more money+contender, and demanded a trade off another team.
Sounds like Bron will fit right in.
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
Back to Miller though, Chicago has a lot of incentive to overpay Miller. Not only should they pay for his production, but they need to pay him for the championships that they won’t win if he signs with Miami. I think that Chicago is going to offer him so much more than Miami that he’ll sign with them – assuming that they realize how good of a player that he is.
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
Anyone else feel like a “Heat” shirt aping the Red on Black NWO wolfpack shirts would be a huge seller? I’d buy one.
marparker
July 9, 2010
Miami is going to win regardless. I am going to scream this until my head explodes
Noone can beat Dwade, Manu, Kobe(in that order) if they have a proper team assembled around them.
Lebron was going to lose to Miami once they signed Bosh unless he joined them. Its clear that Miami knows exactly what its doing.
And the hate will cease. Bosh and Wade are likeable guys and they are going to be having a great time playing with Lebron who is going to make them look ridiculous.
Italian Stallion
July 9, 2010
ilikeflowers,
I realize I am in hostile territory on this blog when it comes to this issue, but IMO you can’t think about this in terms of the average person.
Champions are unique.
Not only are they blessed with extraordinary talents that they work incredibly hard to develop, they have personalty qualities that we mere mortals aren’t all blessed with either that enable them to achieve extraordinary things.
Some people are more or less competitive, like or dislike the spotlight, can or cannot perform under pressure, can or cannot lead others, have more or less courage, want the big stage or want to avoid it, want the big shot or would rather defer, are attracted to risk with a huge upside or seek the safety of a surer bet but with lower return etc….
Those that are lucky enough to be great (and many fans) look beyond just the stats to the personality traits that help define greatness and allow some to achieve so much.
Though they prefer the warrior that lead and became champion, they respect the warrior that failed.
They admire the talents of all great players, but if he wasn’t the leader and shied away from the true test, he’s simply going to take heat no matter what his stats look like.
Lebron left a 60+ win team and a favorite to win it all for greener and easier pastures where he could share the burden and risk of failure with an already successful great warrior (Wade) and another high level player .
He’s going to take heat for that move no matter what his stats are because most people define greatness as mostly stats but PLUS other things. That’s the simple reality and I don’t disagree with it.
Seriously, this time I am out of here.
When we start another thread I’ll jump back in and talk about how I think some of these moves will impact various teams.
Italian Stallion
July 9, 2010
ilikeness,
I am not mad he didn’t sign with the Knicks.
By last night I was hoping for the fairytale ending with the Cavs. I was already calling him an asshole on other blogs and on twitter if he didn’t anything other than staying with the Cavs.
As a player, it would have been tolerable if he accepted the lead role on the Bulls, Nyets, or Knicks, but not Miami.
marparker
July 9, 2010
IS,
Lets say he averages 25, 10, 10( I know this pretty unlikely). In that case I don’t think anyone is going to have anything negative left to say about the move. Performance and results trump all else.
Italian Stallion
July 9, 2010
marparker,
If you listened to all the great players that have been interviewed in the last few hours you would know how they feel.
What they say later for the benefit of the sport is another matter. He is permanently diminished unless Wade gets hurt and he leads the team to a championship.
Italian Stallion
July 9, 2010
I don’t think I’ve ever agreed with Frank Isola about anything related to basketball, but he’s spot on here.
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/knicks/2010/07/09/2010-07-09_lewimp_james_just_cant_carry_team.html
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
I want to win more than be perceived as the alpha dog – asshole! coward! diminished!
I just went to the team that would pay me the most – selfish! mercenary!
I stayed with the team where I was the undisputed alpha and they don’t play their best players – brave! (and in the end) loser!
I made a team championship calibur for 3 years despite an incompentent coach and left after seven years – asshole! burn his jersey!
marparker
July 9, 2010
IS,
I’m sorry that LBJ didn’t have to run your obstacle course of greatness.
marparker
July 9, 2010
I’m sorry I can’t get over that. Name me one other player who could have average 32 pts, 9reb, 7ast while shooting 50% over a 2 year playoff run and be blamed for losing. How many guys ever are even capable of that in a losing effort. He’s the only guy I ever saw score 27pts, 19 reb, 10 ast and people said he wasn’t trying hard enough.
Kobe had 24 and 15 against the same team and half the country named their next born after him.
brgulker
July 9, 2010
IS and Evan,
I think you’re misunderstanding my argument, or I’m not making myself clear.
The argument from Gilbert (which I took Evan to be referencing, even if vaguely) is that LBJ is “abandoning” his “hometown.” What I am suggesting is that LBJ doesn’t think of Cleveland as his hometown.
Yes, Akron fans cheer for Cleveland, and yes, LBJ is “abandoning” those fans (I’d rather use a different word, but for the sake of conversation). But that’s quite a different thing than abandoning one’s hometown.
I think you’re confusing what I’m trying to say. Of course the fans have every right to be disappointed and upset. How could they not be? I’m not saying they don’t have the right to feel that way.
What I am saying is that he’s not abandoning his hometown. He’s from Akron, not Cleveland, and people from Akron don’t think of Cleveland as their hometown. I don’t think it’s particularly fair to label LBJ as abandoning his hometown when that’s simply not the case.
————————-
As to the larger conversation: if this team manages to stay together and adjust their roles accordingly, I bet you in ten years, NBA fans will be praising these decisions (Wade, Bosh, James). Whether it’s actually true or not, if this experiment works, these three will be praised for sacrificing individual numbers for the sake of the team.
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
IS,
Re: Great player winning a championship by himself
Kobe,Gasol,Artest,Odom
Kobe,Gasol,Odom
Garnett,Pierce,Allen,Rondo
Duncan,Ginobli,Parker
Wade,Shaq
Duncan,Ginobli,Parker
Wallace,Chauncey,Hamilton,Prince,Sheed
Duncan,Ginobli,Parker
Shaq,Kobe,Horry times 3
Duncan & Robinson
Jordan,Pippen,Rodman times 3
Hakeem,Drexler,Horry
Hakeem,Horry
I could keep going.
Chicago Tim
July 9, 2010
We need a new thread. Professor, can you just write a one-sentence post?
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
Well, IS is just talking about the perceptions and of course the fairytale of LBJ saving Cleveland from it’s own incompe- uh, I mean bad luck.
Maybe LeBron just likes playing with Wade and Bosh – he did play with them a lot with Team USA. LBJ is more than willing to be unselfish – he’s gonna rack up some serious assists. He could conceivably average a triple double for the season if he turns some of his shot attempts into assists and rebounds. And if the Heat win a bunch of championships they get to say to all of those other players – yeah whatever, our TEAM would’ve kicked all of your jealous hating asses – yours too Jordan (probably not but they can still plausibly claim it).
DKH
July 9, 2010
I respect all of the WoW analysis around this situation. This team will be phenomenal, and I’m cool with that. That said, I’m going to make some comments, not necessarily related to on-court productivity.
My main problem with LeBron’s actions is twofold:
1. LeBron dumped on a Cavs organization that really did everything (Mike Brown excepted) it could to get him a title, and dumped on his teammates as incapable of winning a title, despite the fact that they are above average and some of them were very productive.
2. LeBron followed that up by doing more for Miami (off-court) than he ever did for Cleveland, by signing a long-term deal for a lower-than-max salary (ostensibly).
I can respect his pursuit for a title, and that he’s willing to sacrifice to some extent personally for that. I don’t care about his arrogance and the self-aggrandizing way he went about things. But his treatment of the two organizations gets to me for some reason.
Alvy
July 9, 2010
DKH,
it’s hard to take you serious when all I see is wp/48 of .400 and 3100 minutes (lol j/k).
Joe
July 9, 2010
The inability of the WoW devotees to think beyond numbers rears its ugly head once again.
Understand that among NBA legends – the type of guys whose success you would be lucky to sniff – LeCon is perceived as a coward and traitor, a front-runner who joined the team for which he had to expend the least effort to win. Had he joined even the Bulls, the backlash wouldn’t be nearly as severe.
He lacks the genetic makeup and competitive fire to be an all-time great. You think Jordan would have joined the Pistons in 1990? Oh, I forgot, you people have no real knowledge of NBA history, only the numbers your computer spouts.
Luckily, to real fans, James will never be considered an all-time great, let alone the greatest ever. And no, you’re not among them.
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
Joe,
Shaq to LA
Garnett,Pierce & Allen to Boston
Drexler to Houston
oh and Magic had Kareem
Jordan had Pippen
Bird had McHale and Parish
Lebron had??
brgulker
July 9, 2010
Joe,
How did you get access to LeBron’s genetic makeup?
Out of curiosity, how much greatness have you sniffed?
The argument amongst the insults is puzzling to me. Miami currently has 1 player under contract, and that player is a middling PG. Bosh, Wade, and LBJ will have to play major minutes, and they will have to play brilliantly for the overwhelming majority of those minutes in order to be successful.
In fact, I think a strong case can be made that the situation is precisely the opposite of how you described it. LBJ, Wade, and Bosh might have to “lead” a team of players who could/should be retired and D-Leaguers. How is that easy?
DKH
July 9, 2010
Cripes, my opinion sounds closer to Joe than to WoW.
Alvy, as a Cleveland fan, I don’t appreciate your sarcasm. ;)
I don’t really expect any particular loyalty out of sports stars, though. I do think LeBron showed some immaturity, and will deserve all of the hatred he gets. But he will still be statistically great and turn in some amazing stat lines. Legacy does depend to some extent on the adversity a star faces, though. Winning a title by gradually improving a terrible team is going to be more respected then joining an all-star team and taking an “easier” win. I don’t think that’s unreasonable.
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
DKH,
He did the right thing for him the wrong way. He chose the course that made him happiest (which I can understand) but he was a douchebag while doing it.
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
In other words, great players may never go to a team that already has lesser great players in order to defeat other groups of great players who were added in the correct order. If they do their legacy is tainted since they are cowards who don’t have enough desire to hog the lion’s share of the credit. The lesser players must come to the greater players, no complexity is allowed. It’s kind of like cliques in middle school, high school, or a troop of chimps.
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
Had Wade signed with Cleveland somehow, then it would’ve been ok. Wade would now be Pippen or Rodman and LBJ is still the king because the prince has merely joined his army.
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
ILS,
Except why in the world would you go to Cleveland to play for the Cavs?
DKH
July 9, 2010
Arturo,
Completely agreed.
===
ilikeflowers,
Keep beating that strawman.
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
Arturo,
Yet another example of the diminishment of LBJ. If he was more of a warrior and the leader that he needs to be then his aura would’ve enticed players to come to a declining rust belt city with a history of sports failure where they also get to pay a state income tax.
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
ILS,
If he was half the player Kobe was, he would have won eleventy rings in Cleveland. Blindfolded. With Ricky Davis and Allen Iverson on the Team.
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
Only ELEVENTY!!! Why do you hate Kobe so much?
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
Sorry DKH, didn’t know that you were a Cleveland fan. I’ll leave you alone.
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
ILS,
Hate him? I just recognize the greatness of willfully going 6 for 24 in a game 7 and willing your team to a victory.
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
Hater! Those were at the end of the shot clock AND the defense was entirely focused on him AND he was tired from shutting down Rondo AND Allen AND 5 RINGS AND just stop! la la la la la – I can’t hear you – la la la la la!
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
I’m doing the Kobe duckface at you right now.
jbrett
July 9, 2010
Hey, are you guys making fun of Kobephiles? I’m not sure how I feel about that…oh, wait; I am.:-)
b
July 9, 2010
Still kinda new to the WP formula, but shouldn’t we expect each player’s wp48 to go down a bit as a result of them stealing rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals from each other? It seems much easier to have a .400 when you must do all of these things for your team, like Lebron and D-Wade have in the past. Percentage and ratio stats will probably stay about the same, but these volume stats should decrease some, right?
Shawn Ryan
July 9, 2010
-Itallian Stallion
Isn’t Lebron on record as having been a Bulls fan growing up? He was 9 years old when Jordan came back from retirement the first time (I know this because that’s how old I was, and Lebron and I are a couple months apart age-wise).
I mean, Chicago is 6 hours away from Akron according to google maps. It’s still a nearby team, not hard to imagine someone from Ohio caring more about the Bulls. I mean, I was from Texas, and everyone in my class cared more about the Bulls than the Spurs or Rockets, the only Texas team that everyone cared about more than the Bulls in 1996 was the Mavericks… just kidding.
Alvy
July 9, 2010
Sup b,
a players productivity only goes down marginally with better teammates.
Oh, and I’d like to join you guys!!
Remember that time when your city had a parade and stuff? When like when you felt good about your team and totally not some bandwagon one, like, won championships and stuff?? I’ve been to five of them in my life, shit is awesome!!!
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
Alvy,
I’m totally giving you the Kobe duckface
Alvy
July 9, 2010
NOO!!!!!!!!!!!!
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
And watch out or I’ll give the Gasol euro stinkrub as well.
kevin
July 10, 2010
It’s funny that Magic would trash LeBron for moving (legitimately thought the free agent option) because his elder teammate Kareem did exactly the same thing AFTER winning a championship in Milwaukee. And Kareem is totally unabashed about saying “Yeah, Milwaukee was an OK town but LA had way better pussy. So I forced a trade”.
Nick
July 10, 2010
It’s ridiculous to call LeBron a coward.
He signed for a discount to a team that was probably headed on its way to be 3-4 seed. Its LeBron that makes them the favourites.
I’m a Celtic lifer….and I love this result. Players looking to win above their own wealth and self status.
When the Celtics did it…everyone said Garnett was finally doing the smart thing. Why should LeBron have to wait another 6 years in order to not be called a traitor.
It’s free agency. Unrestricted status is earned. Let LeBron have what he has earned. The right to choose where to play.
Greg Dickenson
July 13, 2010
As a Rockets fan I have two thoughts on this article: (1) The Rcokets had an unusual number of injuries (to Hakeem, Barkley and Drexler) that season; and (2) Rocktes management and coaching staff unwisely turned to Matt Maloney (sometimes in key moments).
Joe
July 17, 2010
@Italian Stallion,
LeBron left a 60+ win team that was NOT designed to handle matchup problems in the playoffs. Hence, an early exit in ’09.
And while the Cavs were rolling in the regular season this past year, the Celtics were limiting minutes as they kept their eyes on the prize (ultimately falling just five points short).
Magic had Kareem and Worthy, Jordan had Pippen and Rodman/Grant, Kobe had Shaq, LeBron had Anderson Varejao and Mo “my contract only pays me through April” Williams.
LeBron turned his back on an organization, not a city or state. And a badly run organization at that.