Frank Isola of the New York Daily News has expressed an argument I have heard other New Yorkers make. LeBron James didn’t go to the Knicks because he couldn’t handle the pressure of New York.
Although I can imagine this argument is pleasing to people from New York (who are apparently handling the pressure of New York), there is another argument that might be just a bit more plausible. The Knicks – with our without King James – are not going to contend for a title.
Chris Sheridan of ESPN offers an assessment of the current Knicks. Here is an excerpt that captures why LeBron did not go to New York.
As things stand now, here is your 2010-11 opening night lineup, Knicks fans (get the tissues out):
PG: Toney Douglas, TBD.
SG: Wilson Chandler, Azubuike, Rautins.
SF: Gallinari, Bill Walker, Landry Fields.
PF: Stoudemire, Randolph.
C: Turiaf, Curry, Jerome Jordan.
Right now, they have a better chance of chasing the 2009-10 Nets than they do of becoming even the slightest bit relevant in this city. Oh, and let’s not forget: They have no first-round draft pick in 2012, and the Rockets have the right to swap picks with them next year. So it doesn’t look as though it’s getting any better anytime soon.
Let me just add some WP48 numbers to this roster. Here is the starting line-up:
Toney Douglas: 0.083
Wilson Chandler: 0.092
Danilo Gallinari: 0.040
Amare Stoudemire: 0.170
Ronny Turiaf: 0.063
The Knicks do have Anthony Randolph off the bench, and Randolph – before he got hurt – posted a 0.153 WP48 with Golden State last year. Randolph, though, plays the same position as Stoudemire. So the Knicks have two players at power forward, and then nothing else. Why would LeBron go to such a roster? If he was going to fail to win titles, he could just stay in Cleveland and avoid the hassle of moving.
Yes, I know. If LeBron would have come, then a number of other free agents might have come as well. After all, LeBron is very persuasive. That is why Chris Bosh decided to join LeBron in Cleveland. Okay, maybe it is Dwyane Wade that is the persuasive one.
Let me close by noting that LeBron’s special last night was not the highlight of the summer TV schedule. And I can understand why teams that missed out on LeBron are unhappy. But I think that LeBron’s choice of Miami can be best explained by LeBron’s actual explanation. He thinks he can win a title in Miami playing with Wade and Bosh. And he is willing to accept less money to make this happen.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
szr
July 9, 2010
I find it amusing that so many analysts are lamenting LeBron’s decision, using words like “selfish”. So a player decides to take less money, and go to a small market team because he wants to win, and that’s the new selfish?
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
szr,
Apparently working for a bad organization and a crappy boss in cleveland over going to South Beach to a top notch organization with your buddies is the new cool . I do think the special was a jerk move though.
New thread :-)
Arthur
July 9, 2010
How does the Lee trade affect the warriors? I would think that they have a great line-up if Lee can play PF to Biedrins C.
It was, obviously, not the biggest story yesterday, but when was the last time the warriors did something this good?
ilikeflowers
July 9, 2010
Lakers signing Blake was a great move as well yesterday.
J. Scott
July 9, 2010
Yeah, there’s alway’s time for a little New York baiting from out in the sticks. Nice.
James likely left hundred’s of millions of dollars on the table to go play in the #17 media market (leaving the #16).
But, hey, it’s all about winning.
Why not go to OKC? Take the minimum and go play with the Lakers.
Whatever. That looked more like a hostage video than anything else last night.
Whatever.
Evan
July 9, 2010
Dan Gilbert’s overreaction does make Lebron a little more sympathetic. Still, all of Lebron’s ME!ME!ME! all the time makes me appreciate Kevin Durant more.
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
You’ll laugh.
jbrett
July 9, 2010
I guess the NBA lives in the sticks; it hasn’t had a decent home in NY for about 15 years now, and moved out of the penthouse when Willis retired.
Play with the TWO best teammates he’s ever had, and SETTLE for 16 million? Love to see him in LA, but he’ll be on a contender for some time. I’m sure Miami is boring when you have dump trucks full of money, too. Just a shame he had to forego that New York weather, though.
nerdnumbers
July 9, 2010
Ok so this offseason, does it seem like from an Economics perspective everything is out of whack? The top FAs will be underpaid, one of the WORST FA has been overpaid (Rudy Gay). David Lee is being traded for an inferior product and this is prompted by the seller. Michael Beasley is being traded for a superior product and that is seen as good by the buyer.
Also we know next year there will likely be a new CBA that is hopefully more advantageous to the GMs. Yet the Nuggets are rushing to sign Melo, while the market is ideal for the player. . . .
Nothing new, but this FA certainly has been full of crazy GM actions.
tk
July 9, 2010
it looks like mike miller is going to sign with the heat, what would the knicks have looked like with miller and luke ridnour? Add to that a quality SF next year, That would be a decent team I feel.
Also , doesn’t playing in D’antoni’s system inflat numbers and statistics a bit anyway? I have the strong feeling the knicks will be able to win about 40 games this season, barring any new additions.
todd2
July 9, 2010
GSW have assembled a pretty nice squad in recent years but have been seriously hampered by injuries. I wouldn’t sell the Knicks short next season. They’ve upgraded their speed for D’Antoni’s system and their division might be up for grabs.
coachbean
July 9, 2010
This may not exactly apply to this thread, but after the madness of the last 24 hours the absolute safest bet for the next NBA season has to be that Miami will play the Lakers on Christmas day. The NBA schedule makers should be fired if this does not happen. Also I could see a rematch a couple weeks later on MLK day.
Chicago Tim
July 9, 2010
Kyle Korver at $5 mill a season isn’t a bad deal for the Bulls, it just isn’t nearly as good a deal as Mike Miller for twice or even three times the price. I’m still hopeful they are aiming for both, but I’m not optimistic.
Chicago Tim
July 9, 2010
Supposedly sign and trades for LeBron and Bosh will allow Heat to retain Udonis Haslem. If true, this is amazing. He’s worth 13 mill a year! I wonder if we are going to find out about under-the-table money years from now.
Daniel
July 9, 2010
Crappy boss? Mike Brown was a top-3 defensive coach, and the team culture was first rate. Danny Ferry filled almost every ROSTER spot with above-average players. The Cavs became a first rate organization under the direction of Ferry and Brown.
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
Damn, this miami press conference has “New World Order” running thru my head.
Toronto Lenny
July 9, 2010
To paraphrase the Dark Shadow, “Who knows what weakness lurks in the hearts of men.” After making all the right noises about his hometown or playing in New York (or Brooklyn/New Jersey) for the past two years, LeBron James has decided not to take on the challenge of Gotham. And, that’s fine – New York isn’t for everyone. The biggest stage presents the biggest pressures. Acknowledging one’s shortcomings is wise. But LeBron, in doing it in such a publicly inappropriate fashion, has lifted the veil of his public persona for all to see. Yes, the Miami Heat will likely win an NBA Championship or three. Yes, LeBron is the most talented and productive player in the NBA. But he will never be considered among the truly great champions of the NBA – Russell, Jordan, Isiah, Bird, Magic. He had the opportunity to do so by building a championship team in Cleveland or turning around a situation like the Knicks. That’s an opportunity lost and legacy diminished.
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
Apparently the Heat can sign Mike Miller and still be $3.8 under the cap. They’re going to kill it.
Alvy
July 9, 2010
JJ Reddick to the Bulls?
I dunno why they didn’t just go after Mike Miller.
Anyway, even the GOAT had something to say about this:
Chicago Tim
July 9, 2010
JJ Redick deal not bad if he plays starter minutes. Again, what kills me are the deals Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem are supposedly going to sign with the Heat, way, way under their value.
I’ve read that Miller was offered 9-10 million per year by other teams and turned them down, although I haven’t seen any direct reports of offers made by the Bulls. I wish I had read the competing offers were even higher, but it really seems that other players are willing to leave lots and lots of money on the table to play with a sure winner.
Everyone else is playing for second place, and the Bulls are competing in that race. But if the Heat sign Miller and Haslem, my mind is blown.
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
Super quick posts on my blog:
Free agent Min players
Miami Heat Cap explained.
winniepoo
July 9, 2010
Hey guys,
Just wondering how the law of diminishing returns might affect their production. Each one of these players is used to seeing the lion’s share of the ball. Is it realistic they can all keep producing at the same rate?
I know that a large part of WP is possessions gained and lost and I assume that there might be more single coverage for at least one of the three so the efficiency gains might offset usage restrictions.
arturogalletti
July 9, 2010
Just spent an hour getting the Salary Cap explained to me. Heat have room under the cap to sign miller and will have room for more. Click above for the pretty table explaining it.
Gil Meriken
July 10, 2010
@Alvy – I’m surprised no one has chimed in about how Michael Jordan is not a very good evaluator of talent as a way to shoot down the credibility of his opinion that Kobe is better than Lebron.
todd2
July 10, 2010
I’m glad it’s finally over. I grew up a CAVS fan and have resided in MIA for the last 10+ years. I’d take Chris Paul over Lebron any day.
kevin
July 10, 2010
“@Alvy – I’m surprised no one has chimed in about how Michael Jordan is not a very good evaluator of talent as a way to shoot down the credibility of his opinion that Kobe is better than Lebron.”
That’s because I haven’t gotten to it yet. And hey, I’m a UNC alum.
roland737
July 10, 2010
The Knicks have only Stoudemire and Randolph, and nothing else??? What a moronic statment. What about Gallinari and Chandler? I don’t think there has ever been two players more overlooked than those two. Get a clue before you spew nonsense
kevin
July 10, 2010
Gallinari sucks. His defense is a joke.
roland737
July 10, 2010
@ Kevin–you don;t know what you’re talking about. Gallinari is a better defender than people have given him credit for, and he works at improving it too
Italian Stallion
July 10, 2010
1. If Randolph is healthy he’s going to start at PF fairly quickly if not immediately. Amare is going to play C except in certain circumstances. D’Antoni likes versatile players so he can put the best 5 players on the court and exploit mismatches on the offensive end (even when that causes mismatches the other way).
2. Gallo was basically a rookie last year. He is a clear cut improving player that stepped it up in the final weeks of the season. He’ll benefit from having another good shooter on the team to help give him space. Teams were shutting him down once they learned how deadly he was from outside and how bad Larry Hughes, Chandler, Duhon and other were from outside. The Knicks are now loaded with young shooters.
3. Last year Chandler was recovering from off season surgery and was absolutely horrible the first few weeks. He improved later in the season and improved his efficiency substantially when he stopped shooting 3 pointers. He should be judged off the last few months last year.
4. They just signed Raymond Felton to play PG. While Felton isn’t anything special, he’s a clear cut upgrade from Duhon who was horrible last year. In addition, his skill set is perfectly matched for the uptempo game the Knicks will play this year and was probably stifled by Larry’s Brown’s half court system. So there is some upside surprise potential here.
The Knicks have several young pieces with huge upside. Personally, I think they have a shot for a 7th or 8th seed if they remain healthy and a few of the key 20-22 year olds take a step forward.
marparker
July 10, 2010
I’m interesting in seeing a chart where each players strengths and weaknesses are outlined. That way we might see where potential diminishing returns lie.
For instance, scottie pippen’s steals went up 40% playing without Michael Jordan in the 93-94 season. So when Jordan came back we would have had to adjust Pippens steals to just pretty damn good from league leading.
Italian Stallion
July 10, 2010
I think to a large extent Lebron is telling the truth about why he went to Miami.
He didn’t choose NY because he could win easier and faster in Miami than in NY.
However, based on his own commentary and other factors I think he is also risk averse.
He wanted to avoid the scrutiny of NY into personal matters and feared the downside of losing there.
The upside of winning in NY is huge, but the downside of losing in NY is massive (just ask Patrick Ewing). Loads of talented baseball and other sports figures can’t take the heat. James loves the spotlight, but IMO he hates the heat.
As I said prior I think the way this move was handled was pathetic and it has now been reinforced.
The latest news is that the entire move to Miami with Bosh was planned months in advance.
So these assholes basically took 5-6 cities and basketball fans elsewhere for a total ride. That doesn’t even count the fact that there was no communication with the Cavs owner for weeks about the move and the process with the whole TV special maximized the pain of Cavs fans and his hometown.
I think this decision also says things about his character as a champion.
No one remembers Muhammed Ali for his wins against Alex Miteff, Alonzo Johnson, Lamar Clark etc… They remember him for his great wars against Frazier, Norton, and Foreman and wins against Liston. He went into those fights as the underdog or was tested to the absolute limit of human heart and courage and prevailed. That’s what made him great.
That’s what people are looking for in champions.
They don’t wants to see the 2 best players in the game team up with one of the best PFs in the game and create a traveling all star team that won’t even be tested once they fill out the roster with solid role players. But if all you are interested in winning easy, you are entitled to fight Lamar Clark or the bum of the month and put together quite a record.
marparker
July 10, 2010
Lebron’s going to have great battles still. The other players in the league aren’t just going to lay down. Bos, Chi, Orl, LAL, OKC, Hou are all potential 60 win teams as well(emphasis on potential). Miami isn’t going to be cutting through butter.
I get it we the fans/media are a gang that like to jump athletes in before they reach a certain status. We feel cheated that we haven’t gotten to chance to fully finish beating his tale yet.
arturogalletti
July 10, 2010
IS,
He’s going for best team ever. I do think that GOAT is only up for grabs for Durant (if OKC can go through the Lakers and Heat wow).
As of now i f I had to pick a likely scenario for the Heat in 2011 based on their cap space it’s:
Chalmers,Wade,Lebron,Bosh, Wallace?
with: Miller, Arroyo,QRich, James Jones,Magloire, the two rookies and some random big (Shelden Williams?)
That projects somewhere north of 70 wins and they get two MLES next year.
arturogalletti
July 10, 2010
I meant Ben Wallace
Shawn Ryan
July 10, 2010
The whole Lebron couldn’t stand the pressure of New York argument is so utterly ridiculous that it boggles my mind. In terms of having the highest potential to win over the long term, the Bulls, and the Heat were the top two teams, followed by the Cavaliers. Knicks were a distant fourth followed by the Nets, Clippers.
The other component that is obviously very large is that these three have been friends for years, and enjoyed playing with each other, and played well together during FIBA.
Those two reasons are plenty explanation for his decision. The “Lebron can’t handle New York” argument is superfluous (ever heard of Occam’s Razor?). What’s more, it just makes the purveyor of this argument sound like they are whining.
Lebron made his decision. It’s a shame that he didn’t consult with you personally (and by you, I mean basically anyone who makes this argument). I’m sure that if he did, he would have made the correct decision, whatever that was.
Never-the-less, he’s made his decision. Live with it, and please stop complaining about it.
brgulker
July 11, 2010
IS,
You’re getting out of control and making a fool of yourself at this point. Case in point:
Imagine that you were looking for employment, and imagine you had one job you wanted more than 5-6 others. Would you shun interviews with 5-6 other potential employers simply because you preferred one?
You are holding athletes to a ridiculously unfair standard– a standard to which you would never even hold yourself — and then making character judgment after character judgment about them as a result of it.
It’s not LBJ’s fault (or Bosh’s or Wade’s) that they didn’t choose NY. They had every right not to. Give up your anger toward them. Instead, maybe you should direct your anger directly at the people who are responsible for making your franchise as awful as it has been for the last several years.
brgulker
July 11, 2010
Arturo,
How is it possible for Miami to have 2 MLEs in one off-season? Surely you mean the MLE and the Biannual exception?
kevin
July 12, 2010
Why would LeBron want to go to NY anyway? It’s perhaps the most dysfunctional franchise in the NBA. At one time, in the early 70’s, it was a money machine and a perrenial contender. Then it all came undone and it hasn’t been the same since. If they can’t get it right in 40 years, why would LeBron think he can single-handedly turn things around? Why would he want to take that chance, that an inept ownership structure would overnight be cured? There’s no way that is going to happen. They have this humongopus, loyal fanbase and ownership STILL hasn’t figured out how to capitalize on that.
If you’re an NBA superstar, avoid the Big Apple like the plague. Nothing good can come from playing there. You’ll just end up disillusioned.
kevin
July 12, 2010
“Gallinari is a better defender than people have given him credit for, and he works at improving it too”
Right. He sucks. But insiders who see him play all the time know he doesn’t suck quite as bad as is generally perceived and he might get a little better in the future and so has a chance to upgrade to mediocre.
BFD. He’s not the type of player who you could expect to be in the rotation of a winner.
kevin
July 12, 2010
You know why LeBron didn’t sign with the Knicks? He saw this video: