As my post yesterday indicated, I was unconvinced by the argument that LeBron avoided New York because he couldn’t handle the pressure from playing in the Big Apple. Today I have noted at Huffington Post three additional LeBron stories that – like the New York pressure story – might best be described as “less than convincing.” Or, to put it a bit more concisely (if not entirely nice), somewhat “silly”.
In case these stories are not enough to satisfy your interest in LeBron, Arturo Galletti has offered a quick analysis (inspired by Mr. Parker) of how many teams since 1977 have assembled a quartet like the Miami Heat in 2010. Assuming player performance doesn’t change too much, next year the Heat will have one player with a WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] in excess of 0.400 (LeBron James). And three players (Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Mike Miller) with a mark that exceeds 0.200. As the following table indicates, only 11 NBA teams have assembled such a foursome (minimum 400 minutes played). And seven of these teams advanced to the NBA Finals.
And if that story is not enough, a genuine Wages of Wins Network is gradually being assembled. The following four websites are now offering analysis of the NBA using Wins Produced (or in the case of Ty Willihnganz’s Courtside Analyst a Wins Produced inspired metric).
Nerd Numbers the Blog (Andres Alvarez)
Arturo Silly Little Stats (Arturo Galletti)
Roblog (Robbie O’Malley)
Courtside Analyst (Ty Willihnganz)
So if The Wages of Wins Journal is not enough, you now have four more places to look at each day. And I am confident, the LeBron stories in all these locations will eventually be replaced with stories all of us might find more interesting (not that the endless LeBron coverage of the past few days hasn’t been fascinating).
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
ilikeflowers
July 10, 2010
I have the Fab Four with 69 wins assuming 36 mpg and no diminishing returns. Even knocking off 7 wins for diminishing returns has them in the champs grouping with 62 wins produced.
arturogalletti
July 10, 2010
ILS,
Yeah and it looks like they can do three FA deals (25/5 for Miller and two 15/3) under the cap and Larry Bird Udonis Haslem. *Shudder*. Here’s hoping they sign Fisher and Big Z (and they don’t improve) so they lose a few games.
arturogalletti
July 10, 2010
The knicks just signed draftexpress #1 international prospect Timofey Mozgov a big,athletic muscular center. Tha gives them Randolph,Amare and this guy in the Frontcourt. Could be real interesting.
Jim Glass
July 10, 2010
I was unconvinced by the argument that LeBron avoided New York because he couldn’t handle the pressure from playing in the Big Apple
LeBron deciding to avoid the 12.8% tax rate in NY for the 0% rate in Florida seems rather more plausible.
Italian Stallion
July 10, 2010
Jim,
While I think it’s clear that informed investors and businessmen include taxes in their calculations of profits/return on investment etc…, there is very little chance that was a major driver in the decision between NY and Miami for Lebron (perhaps Bosh).
The amount of money Lebron would have made in NY from non basketball sources simply drawfs what he can make in Miami with or without taxes.
Aside from endorsements for tons of large and small NY based businesses and having the larger global platform, there are massively more consumers in NY for anything he does or sells (not any more though).
Italian Stallion
July 10, 2010
Wade was sub par (at least for a super freak like him) in the early part of the season last year. In fact, I recall discussions about that here where I suggested it was possible that all his driving to the basket and getting beat up every year was beginning to wear him down at age 28.
However, he finished the year spectacularly.
I’m not enough of a Heat fan to know whether he had some physical issues early in the season, but whatever was wrong he corrected it. So IMHO, he is capable or more than he produced last year since I don’t recall him ever being inconsistent like that EXCEPT when he was hurt.
I do think that injury is the biggest risk to Miami though.
Wade is going to be 29 and still plays in that very physical going to the hoop fashion that even Jordan eventually went away from as he aged. Wade gets banged around a lot and is going to more vulnerable at this age than he was earlier when he already had several injury plagued years.
I also think Bosh is about due for some knee problems.
I don’t watch a lot of Toronto games, but in a few I saw last year his knees and legs were so rapped up I was actually questioning whether he was worth a 6 year deal.
He’s kind of a soft player and he’s going to catch a beating inside if he’s forced to play C for a lot of minutes if the Heat can’t find someone that can do so effectively.
Italian Stallion
July 10, 2010
I’d like to point out one other relevant point to this discussion. The Knicks had room for 2 max contract players plus a few million extra and already had several highly regarded young prospects signed to attractive rookie deals.
Miami was the only team with almost enough for 3 max contracts this year, but they had nothing else significant signed.
The Knicks also have the 11.2m Eddy Curry contract coming off the books next year. That contract will probably be very easy to move at the trade deadline or worst case come off the books next year.
So if Lebron really wanted to come to NY and make way more money off court, shoot for way more glory, and win lots of championships long term, all he had to do was wait 1/2 season or 1 season worse case and the Knicks would have been able to add another max player.
They probably would have been in a better “long term” position than Miami because of the upside of the youth on the team that is signed on rookie deals.
Lebron didn’t want NY and I think I know why.
But I can’t see into his heart. I can only listen to what he says, watch his behavior, watch him play basketball and use that as evidence to form an opinion.
If you look at the Knicks “Plan B” that has been implemented, aside from getting Amare, Randolph, and Felton they are accumulating tradeable assets and most likely gearing up to use the Eddy Curry’s contract and/or assets to land another max player at the trade deadline or next year.
Alvy
July 11, 2010
The decision was a good idea, but it was a PR move that offended several. I think that is the story. Does anyone think Wade will win his first MVP this following season or certainly sometime on the future?
MegaloArenas
July 11, 2010
The Heat still need a big man to help them defend the post
Peter
July 11, 2010
As a side note, observe that of the seven finalist quartets, all but one featured Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, or Magic Johnson.
In a twist of irony, James himself could be in that “megastar” role production-wise, but will likely be seen as second fiddle to Dwyane Wade.
BTW, how about the “Heatles” for this quartet?
arturogalletti
July 11, 2010
IS,
I’m sorry but the knicks are looking to re-hire Isiah as GM. Your argument is invalid.
Shawn Ryan
July 11, 2010
Peter,
Going on that line of thinking, maybe the “Fab 4”?
John Giagnorio
July 11, 2010
Although I feel like the Knicks were a better option than most here, the idea that they’re a good bet to win “lots more” championships long term just isn’t true.
The younger players on their roster may improve, but the improvement is more likely to be up to league average than into meaningful contributors. Give me Chalmers, Haslem, and Mike Miller for the next 6 years any day, and it’s not close.
As for Curry’s contract, what can we reasonably think it will turn into at this point? It’s very unlikely the Knicks will be able to add a true star player. Curry’s deal will probably turn into someone like Tony Parker. Parker/Stoudemire is obviously much weaker than Wade/Bosh.
Amare/Lebron/???/Parker/Chandler with Gallinari off the bench is a good team, but it’s no where near what the Heat will be putting on the court in the future even if Chandler and Gallinari make almost unprecedented improvement. The Knicks needed to make a really big splash by adding someone like Chris Paul, and they failed to do so.
marparker
July 11, 2010
What is the major difference between the teams that won and the teams that didn’t on that list….shooting guard position.
Now that Dwyane Wade has other players around him, including the most productive in the league, I don’t see anyone beating them.
The Vegas Line is 9 to 5 which kind of sucks.
Chicago Tim
July 11, 2010
I’m still hoping that Miller and Haslem take two or three times as much money from another team. If they don’t the Heat won’t get penalized for risky deals with Bosh and Wade.
It seems like the real lesson here is that if you put together enough star power you will get a hefty discount on the role players, and that discount is what really puts the team over the top.
simon
July 11, 2010
marparker//
Didn’t the Celtics there lost with Ainge, Lakers there lost with Byron Scott and the Pistons lost with Hamilton? You’ve already mentioned those three players as championship caliber shooting guard. Also Kenny Smith was more of a combo guard along with Maxwell so he can be considered a SG too. Houston later won it all with them with Mario Ellie playing a lot as SF at times.
In other words I don’t think the “major” difference is the shooting guard position for these teams. Your theory could very well be true, I don’t know that for sure, but your last two premises aren’t very convincing: 1) championship SGs are rarer than other positions, which not true compared to C and PF, I’m not sure about PG and SF positions 2) The “super quartet” teams that didn’t win it all failed because of their lack of good shooting guard, which is also not true since many of them had championship-winning SGs.
nerdnumbers
July 11, 2010
Mar,
Predicting finals winners is pretty hard because they are such a small sample. In the turnover era on 10 teams have won it all. Of those 10, Miami was an anomoly in that they were the ONLY team to not have multiple finals apearances with a championship roster. And they are one of only 4 teams (Philly, Seattle, Washington and Miami) to only have one championship.
A better set of rules for predicting winning a championship is to 1) Have a really really good player (as I mentioned on my blog, 2008-2009 was the FIRST year since 1979 where the finals featured two teams where neither had a current or former league leader in Wins) 2) Not have someone like Kevin McHale as a GM 3) Win a championship :)
marparker
July 11, 2010
How many championships have been won without a shooting guard at least 7 points above league average in offensive rating(awkward wording).
I can only name a couple. This year’s Lakers, Pistons in 04. That Celtics 87 team lost to a team which had Byron Scott(115 rating vs. Ainge 115 rating).
This is anecdotal. I have never written notes but went through alot of teams on basketball reference.
ilikeflowers
July 11, 2010
Mar,
the anecdotal stuff is good for formulating the question, but it won’t give us the answer. What really needs to be done is to see whether or not there’s a relationship between shooting guard performance and greater than expected team performance in the playoffs or regular season (independent of other factors). Also, it could simply be that the teams that overpay at the SG position (everyone wants an MJ now) are killing themselves since this is typically the least productive position – at least according to wow. On average, if you overpay a scorer at the other positions you’re still getting more bang 4 buck.
Alvy
July 11, 2010
I think the SG in the NBA is appropriately realized. It’s just ….coincidence in regards to marparker’s observation, I feel.
BTW, has anyone read the “Runaway Slave” perspective on LeBron’s decision?
Also, anyone watching Summer League? I haven’t, but of the two Lakers games, D. Character is ripping it hardcore. His last line was 17 pts, 12 rebs, BUT he had six turnovers, how the hell does that happen? lol
John Wall sucked in his first game :/
Chicago Tim
July 12, 2010
Phoenix Suns are about to snap up Childress for a terrific price. I haven’t analyzed the deal with Toronto.
“The Suns are on the verge of acquiring forwards Hedo Turkoglu and Josh Childress, swiftly rebounding from the loss of Amar’e Stoudemire with two impact players.
“The Suns would send seven-year veteran guard Leandro Barbosa and late-season addition Dwayne Jones to Toronto for Turkoglu, a 6-foot-10 forward from Turkey with versatile skills to shoot from long range and be a playmaker. Toronto would then move Jones and its trade exception from the Chris Bosh sign-and-trade deal to Charlotte for former Suns forward Boris Diaw.
“Phoenix will send a 2012 second-round pick to Atlanta in a sign-and-trade deal for Childress, who will leave Greece for a five-year, $33 million contract to play for the Suns.”
Source: Arizona Republic.
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/suns/articles/2010/07/11/20100711phoenix-suns-acquire-hedo-turkoglu-josh-childress.html
Won’t it stun people if the Suns are better without Amare, and the Knicks even worse (or at least not much better) without Lee?
Chicago Tim
July 12, 2010
Looks like the Mavericks are competing for Udonis Haslem. Thank heavens! Now why isn’t someone competing for Miller?!?
marparker
July 12, 2010
alvy,
Here’s my problem. I have some baseline stats that I look at for guards in the NCAA tournament. Those guidelines have correctly picked the tournament winner for the past 7 years and thats not in hindsight. However, there are also some baseline team stats which must be met as well.
I’m attempting to find the same thing in the NBA. Its different because of the series aspect however looking at the shooting guard position has led me to similar conclusions that I observed in regards to the NCAA.
I have my own theory on why this seems to occur but I don’t care about why so much as the results.
That being said, if Miami has truly built a 70 win juggernaut and there is some connection between sg and championship results then we may be looking at the first hastily constructed dynasty I have ever seen in sports.
kevin
July 12, 2010
Dave, another celebrity story on my part. I know Rick Horrow quite well. We spent a summer together in Maine in the late 70’s coaching baseball at a summer camp. He has a photographic memory for sports trivia so we got along great.
Peter
July 12, 2010
Shawn, it’s too bad the Rams already took “The Fearsome Foursome”
What about “The Frightful Four”?
John Giagnorio
July 12, 2010
The “runaway slave” story is a pretty good description for Gilbert’s nasty reaction. It’s clear he thought he owned LeBron for life and feels betrayed that the value of his franchise is likely to fall by $100M+.
I’m not sure if this only applies to black athletes though; it seems more like a money/status issue than a race issue. The same sentiment seems to come up with working class white kids in MLB who have the nerve to ask for big money out of high school/college. It came up when Michael Crabtree demanded more money than the 49ers wanted to give him, money that multiple teams claimed to be willing to pay him.
For whatever reason, sports fans invariably side with the billionaire owners (who take taxpayer money for stadiums, profit off anti-trust exemptions, etc) over the millionaire players. It’s really fascinating.
Any thoughts on Cuban demanding the NBA investigate “collusion” on the part of the big 3? Seems pretty silly to me.
marparker
July 12, 2010
Joe,
I’ll listen to the race argument when it’s not coming out of the mouth of someone who has a vested interest in stirring up trouble. I don’t recall any stories circa 1800 of slave owners offering to pay a slave before he arranged to have every camera in the world at a set time and place to alert the slave owner of exactly where he was going.
On to the issue of fans being on the side of the owner. I think it comes from a place of fans taking ownership in their favorite teams. I don’t believe the money is ever the issue with the fans. Not saying thats how everyone has to look at things.
marparker
July 12, 2010
And lastly,
Isn’t the collusion hubub just cuban being cuban?
DKH
July 12, 2010
Seems reasonable for Cuban to be worried about collusion. As an owner, he wants the league to be competitive, or if any team is going to be clearly on top, he wants it to be his. If there’s collusion going on and they are obtaining a clear advantage from such anti-competitive behavior, I would think it to be in his interest to eliminate that.
I doubt the existence of sufficient evidence to show any collusion to violate the rules, though. They are going to point to a misstatement by Bosh, and a meeting or meetings that took place after the conclusion of the season?
marparker
July 12, 2010
how can players collude? They aren’t in control of the price of anything? If a group of people boycott a store they aren’t colluding.
John Giagnorio
July 12, 2010
What exactly is Loanshark Gilbert so angry about then? Why does he feel betrayed, and why is Lebron James Benedict Arnold in his eyes? The only reasonable explanation I can think of is that Gilbert felt he owned James. “I wasn’t informed about his decision on time” just doesn’t cut it. Also don’t think it’s a race issue, I’m guessing owners like Gilbert feel the same about white players who “betray” them.
It’s reasonable to worry about collusion, but I’ve yet to read any reasonable case for why we should think it occurred. Until some kind of justification is provided, it comes off as sour grapes and another example of an NBA executive resorting to childish name calling.
John Giagnorio
July 12, 2010
I alluded to this earlier, but here’s an indication of why Dan Gilbert might be so angry:
http://www.nba.com/2009/news/12/09/team.values.ap/index.html
I can really only think of one “asset” pushing the Cavs’ valuation so high above league average.
marparker
July 12, 2010
Joe,
Just an analogy. If I get mad at my girlfriend for leaving me after a long relationship and I feel like she owed me something before leaving does that mean I have a slave owner’s mentality? I look at both situations more as sour grapes. I think he acted more like a jilted lover than a slave owner.
Chicago Tim
July 12, 2010
It appears that Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem really are turning down millions of dollars a year to play with the Heat. How much is it worth to be close to greatness, or to contribute to greatness? I don’t know, but the Heat certainly benefit.
This Sun Sentinel article explores some of the ties between LeBron and Miller, including their Nike association:
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-heat/sfl-miami-heat-mike-miller-s071120,0,1576491.story
And here’s Udonis Haslem’s email to the Sun Sentinel: “Turned down full mid level from Dallas and Denver. See u next season.”
ilikeflowers
July 12, 2010
Wow, I didn’t realize that Haslem’s still producing at the 0.200 level. That’s a 400 a 300 and 3 x 200. Crazy. We’re going to get a real good look at diminishing returns this year. That said, with James becoming the primary assists man, Miller as the shooter, Flash as the Slasher, Bosh as the scoring big and Haslem as the rebounder, this is a well constructed roster. I’m just hoping that they don’t sign Fisher. Assuming that Chalmers and Arroyo will be about average again, all they need are some average backup bigs to project as a team that would theoretically go undefeated. This will be a great experiment for examining the model at the extremes.
Alvy
July 12, 2010
I completely agree with ilike, I want to see how pragmatic wp/48 can be under the extremes.
Also, marparker, you’re right, how can players collude, but I think the logic is similar to that of the MLB rules, as Bosh, Wade and LeBron had seemingly decided their grouping “years ago,” before becoming FA.
ilikeflowers
July 12, 2010
Too bad for Dallas regarding Haslem though. They desperately needed his level of production with their shrinking window and they offered him 10 mil more. With an improving Beaubois and Haslem they ‘coulda been a contender’.
marparker
July 13, 2010
My last Lebron comment for a while.
Here’s what I know. Guys who put up average stats on multiple championship teams are well respected. Guys who put up all-star level numbers on multiple championship teams become legends. Guys who put all time numbers on multiple championship teams are revered. Should this man put up all time numbers on multiple championship teams the naysayers will become the worshipers. Thats not based on prognostication. Thats based on human nature.
Italian Stallion
July 13, 2010
John Giagnorio,
The reason Gilbert feels betrayed is because of the way James left.
You can argue that the Cavs did a sub par job of putting other top players around James (many here wouldn’t even argue that) , but you can’t argue that Gilbert wasn’t willing to spend a lot of his own money to bring in players to make the team better. He tried to the best of ability to give James everything he needed to win a championship. James fell short despite the team having the best record in the NBA for the last two years.
When you are treated extremely well by an employer (as James was), it’s sort of expected that if you are seriously considering leaving you should at least communicate with the team to discuss it , give the team a chance to make some coaching moves, player moves etc… to perhaps persuade you to stay or at least know which direction to go in.
James refused to do any of that and called the Cavs about 10 minutes before the public decision to leave. That’s simply not the way to leave any organization, but especially not one that gave you and your friends everything they wanted for years.
The way this was handled extends to many of the Cavs fans and fueled their anger also.
It was a self indulgent slap in the face to Cleveland to have that one hour show etc… and there was no reason for it to be done that way other than massive immaturity/stupidity or all the things Gilbert accused him of.
I’m not defending Gilbert’s letter. He should have taken the high road and began the work of rebuilding the team instead of telling the truth, but the truth IS the truth.
Italian Stallion
July 13, 2010
Arturo,
The Knicks aren’t going to rehire Isiah Thomas.
At this point I’m sure even Dolan understands Isiah is not any good with the monetary valuation of players and salary cap issues.
I don’t understand the “why” of the relationship, but James Dolan likes Isiah Thomas and he does have some valuable skills (drafting, many players love and respect him etc..) I think he’s trying to help him get back into the NBA in some capacity.
Italian Stallion
July 13, 2010
John Giagnorio,
I don’t think you understand the young talent on the Knicks very well and I think once Curry is off the books, it will be very easy to maneuver the team into a position for another max player.
If James and Amare were on the team, a 3rd player would have come.
You can argue that any combination of 3 in NY won’t be as good individually as James, Wade, and Bosh, but you could argue that you could fit 3 players together better so there would less diminishing returns and other issues than you’ll have with Wade and James.
In any event, that Knicks team would have also be in a great position to win multiple championships and James wouldn’t have had to forgo all the glory of LEADING a NY team and all the extra money he would have made in NY.
General comment directed at no one:
The people that keep arguing that winning is so important are missing the whole point of sports.
Anyone can win all the time. Just keep playing players that are worse than you and you’ll win a lot. But that kind of winning doesn’t prove a darn thing about what you have inside as a competitor. Believe me I know. I was an “A” level pool player and won a lot of “B” level tournaments to make some extra cash. lol
Sports is about competition. The idea is to try to improve and test yourself against better and better opposition to see how far you can go.
The ultimate is to test yourself against other champions to see if you have BOTH the physical talent/skills and psychological makeup to handle the pressures and opposition at the highest level and succeed.
Basketball is a team game. So even the great players need a good supporting cast to win. However, there is something unseemly about the best player in the game teaming up with arguably the 2nd best player and one of the top PFs in the league.
It would be kind of Manny Pacquiao teaming up with Floyd Mayweather Jr and forming a tag team to beat everyone else and thus depriving us and themselves of actually watching them fight to determine which is better.
I know very stats oriented guys tend to think they already know who is better, but there is more to winning at the highest levels than just the stats.
Winning is probably more than 95% about the things stats can measure, but when we are discussing champions and teams with similar stats other things separate them.
It’s those other things that James has chosen to avoid putting on display. IMHO it’s because he is insecure and afraid of losing and underperforming under championship level fire.
He’d rather win with Wade than risk dogging it and losing while leading a very good team like Chicago or NY where the rewards in many other ways would have been much greater.
I understand the feeling. It means he’s mortal and more human than we think. He’s just less like most champions than we thought.