The Phoenix Suns started free agency by watching Amare Stoudemire take more money from the New York Knicks. And as noted, Stoudemire is probably not worth the money he will be paid by the Knicks. In other words, the Suns were wise to let Stoudemire walk.
Of course, fans of the Suns do not really care how much Phoenix was being asked to pay Stoudemire. All they care about are wins on the court. And Stoudemire moving on means about ten wins have walked out the door.
To replace these wins, the Suns have technically traded for Hakim Warrick and actually traded for Hedo Turkoglu. These two players produced 5.6 wins in more than 3,800 minutes last season. Turkoglu, though, is now a year older and will have to move to the power forward position full time. So the moves made at power forward are probably not going to help much.
The Suns, though, are also acquiring Josh Childress. In case readers have forgotten, here is what Childress produced for the Atlanta Hawks across his first four seasons in the NBA.
To put these numbers in perspective, here is what Stoudemire did from 2004-05 to 2007-08:
- 39.1 Wins Produced
- 8,305 Minutes Played
- 0.226 WP48
In addition, Childress is younger than Stoudemire.
So why was Childress allowed to depart Atlanta? For that story, one is referred to the following posts:
So How Much did Atlanta Improve?
Josh Childress is Appreciated in Europe
To summarize, Childress is one of those productive non-scorers that NBA decision-makers tend to undervalue.
The underestimation of Childress will probably continue in Phoenix. It’s unlikely he play 2,000 minutes next season for the Suns, since he plays behind Jason Richardson and Grant Hill. Plus he is part of the second unit with Jared Dudley (who will also take minutes at small forward).
As a consequence, the addition of Childress will not completely overcome the subtraction of Stoudemire. But I think it helps quite a bit. And I think it is possible the Suns will still make the playoffs in 2011 (and Stoudemire and the Knicks may be sitting at home).
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
arturogalletti
July 12, 2010
Prof.,
I totally agree on Childress except I do think the Suns will find minutes for him.
some dude
July 12, 2010
wait, Hedo will be playing Power Forward?
bags fly free
July 13, 2010
maybe suns will trade hill/dudley for a big man in the future, they have a lot of wing players
some dude
July 13, 2010
Nash/Dragic
J-Rich/??
Hill/Hedo/Childress
Warick/Dudley
Lopez/Frye
I really don’t get the point of having Hill, hedo, Childress, and Dudley on the same team. Are you looking to unload Hill on a contender for a 1st rounder or something?
they can’t expect to play hedo/Dudley a lot of minutes at the 4 spot and get very far…
some dude
July 13, 2010
Forgot they still have Girffin and probably Amundson (or is he a UFA?).
Too many players on this team. I don’t get letting Amar’e and replacing him with this glut of wings and weak bigs. I mean, I understood not guaranteeing $100 mil to Amar’e, but I wouldn’t have followed it up with all of these moves.
Couldn’t they have done something better with Barbosa instead of Turkoglu? Childress move is good, but Hedo…ugh.
matt d
July 13, 2010
Can you devise a regression that will uncover why the knicks management is so dumb?
some dude
July 13, 2010
I think the Knicks have done okay so far. Trading Lee for Turiaf, Randolph, and Buike was a great coup on their part.
reservoirgod
July 13, 2010
Some dude:
If dumping your most productive player for a terrible team’s injured trash can be considered a good move, then “yes” the Knicks made a good move.
some dude
July 13, 2010
RG: by “productive” you mean by solely box score stats, and mainly offensive.
Problem with Lee is he’s your least productive defensive player and by a mile. WP admittedly doesn’t capture defense, and unfortunately for the metric when it comes across a player so egregiously horrible at it, it can easily overrate the player to absurd levels. Lee is one of these situations.
Lee, on average, allowed his counterpart to perform 28% better offensively. That is mind-bogglingly high. I wonder if it was the worst mark in the league among players that play at least 20mpg. it’s certainly up there. It’s worse than Calderon. It’s 5 times as bad as Bargnani and Al Jefferson!
So it’s nice that maybe he gets you 18 & 10, but when he gives up 22 and 14, does it matter?
he’s the monta ellis of big men, only it’s masked because of better offensive efficiency (but low post defense is more valuable than perimeter D).
So yes, when given the option of paying one of the 2 worst big men in the NBA $12 mil per year, or bringing in cheap guys who end up having a bigger combined impact, I’ll take the latter.
David Lee has quickly become the most overrated player in the L and on this site. Of course, his D (or lack thereof) fits in perfectly with the Warriors strategy of not playing any of it to begin with, so y’all will probably continue to not notice it.
some dude
July 13, 2010
I also find it interesting that the Knicks have been a better rebounding team the last 2 seasons with Lee on the bench rather than in the game.
Marcus Camby effect at play, perhaps?
reservoirgod
July 13, 2010
SD:
If your argument is the Knicks improved with addition by subtraction, then fine. But remember that when you’re watching the Knicks sign D-Leaguers to makeup the 1100 mins difference between David Lee & the injured trash heap they received in return. And the defensive stats you cite are a farce. They don’t account for whether or not Lee was actually guarding the opponent’s C or PF when they were racking up those “boxscore stats” because the Knicks perimeter players couldn’t stay in front of their own reflection and Lee had to switch. I don’t believe Lee is a great defender either, but the gap between his defense and the best defense is A LOT smaller than the gap between the worst PFs’ offensive efficiency+rebounding and his offensive efficiency+rebounding.
Alvy
July 13, 2010
Some dude,
check out the value of David Lee at Courtside Analyst:
http://courtsideanalyst.wordpress.com/nba-2009-10-final-win-charts/
they might be more in line of your thinking (but basically no different than what you already find here)
marparker
July 13, 2010
Some dude,
There are so many fallacies in your argument.
I’m wondering how someone who claims to look so deeply into the most minute details of basketball can’t see that the Knicks most used lineup play above average defensively (1.06 pts per posession vs. league average of 1.07) with such defensive juggernauts as Duhon-Chandler-Gallinari-Jeffries.
In fact for the Knicks top 20 lineups used, David Lee was off the court for a whopping 108 minutes.
So, you’re going to have to explain to me how you can make any judgments with that little amount of data. Then you are going to have to explain why you are making rebounding judgment based on Lee’s main replacement being Earl Barron who in his short amount of minutes played had a higher offensive rebounding percentage than Ben Wallace who led the league in players who played enough minutes. Then you’ll have to explain how David Lee’s lineups had a better defensive rebounding percentage. Then you’ll have to explain how David Lee and Zach Randolph’s lineups had equal defensive rebounding percentage the year before that. Then you’ll have to explain why David Lee offensive rebounding is so weak compared to his defensive rebounding even though he’s supposed to be only good for one end of the floor. Then you’ll have to explain why you keep coming here to make points that have no basis in reality.
arturogalletti
July 13, 2010
SD:
David Lee at 6’9′ is a bad defender on centers but a credible one on PF. See link for full detail http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/2010/07/05/defense-adjust-wins-produced1st-pass/
Using data from 82 games:
To summarize:
WP48 Avg Ctr Def. by Lee byAmare
0.432 0.519 0.396
WP48 Avg PF
0.363 0.307 0.297
So Lee is overmatched at Center but does well at PF so GSW (who has a center) is a much better fit for him than NY who didn’t and forced him to play C almost exclusively.
Shawn Ryan
July 13, 2010
-Some dude
Lee’s defensive numbers against Power Forwards look a lot better than againsts Centers. He’s really been playing out of position for a long time.
He’s not overrated, he’s improperly utilized.
Shawn Ryan
July 13, 2010
Looks like you beat me to the punch Arturo, and with numbers to boot! Haha
marparker
July 13, 2010
Also, can we talk about Larry Brown getting his hands on Calderon and Evans?
According to our Espn Greasemonkey chimichanga their career wp48s are both north of .2 though neither reached the mark last year.
Could this team be someone to be reckoned with. Their roster now includes 3 players who have been very good in the past and they are being coached by a guy who as far as I can remember has been great at allocating minutes to his most productive guys.
arturogalletti
July 13, 2010
SR,
I already had them laying around, I might as well use them. Did anyone else see Cousins destroy it last night (14 and 10 in 26 on 11 shots)? Queens no more.
Tom Mandel
July 13, 2010
Arturo — I guess you missed Cousins’ 5 turnovers and 5-11 shooting? :)
Omri Casspi was more productive in 2/3 the minutes.
But like you I believe that Cousins is going to be terrific.
(Note use of word “believe”)
arturogalletti
July 13, 2010
Tom,
You’re right, I was seduced by YayPoints! He did get a bunch of rebs so that’s ok.
Chris Ross
July 13, 2010
Hey man, great post you put out a lot of information that I had no idea about. Anyways, from a non-stat point of view I don’t think you can come even close to trying to compare Josh Childress and Amare Stoudemire. Stoudemire was Nash’s sidekick and Childress could at best be a role player for the Phoenix Suns. The Suns have not made good moves this year and I think it will show in their play in the coming season. Also, you think you could check out my article cuz I really want to know what you think. http://chrisross91.wordpress.com/2010/07/12/end-of-an-era/
robbieomalley
July 13, 2010
CR,
I believe the Suns won 54 games without Stoudemire a few years back with a team of “role players.” You have to consider everything a player does, not just the points he scores. The only thing stopping Childress from making the impact Stoudemire had is the minutes he gets.
But I agree with you in a sense. I think the Suns success will begin to set next season. There is just no way Nash will continue to produce at his level for much longer. Grant Hill is also very old but they have replacements for him. Lou Amondson will also not be back. You need to rebound to be successful and the Suns will have lost their two best rebounders from last year.
They can still make the playoffs but I wouldn’t put them in the “contender” category for 2010-2011.
nerdnumbers
July 13, 2010
Chris,
I think we’ll disagree on Childress and Stoudemire, but I do agree with most points in your article. Phoenix’s time is probably done.
Also the number of wins a team gets is a stat. A win is decided on a point differential, which is also a stat. A team is termed good by the number of wins, so a team is good based on a set of stats. No one seems to have a problem comparing teams based on stats. However, once we start doing it with players. . . .
“From a non-stat point of view I don’t think you can come even close to trying to compare Josh Childress and Amare Stoudemire. ”
One non-stat thing I will say is Childress’ Fro is way better for team Morale than Stoudemire’s goggles.
bags fly free
July 13, 2010
‘According to source, Zydrunas Ilgauskas close to accepting a contract from Miami Heat. Cavs had offer for Z on table ‘
Chicago Tim
July 13, 2010
Ilgauskas would add another 3-4 wins, if the Heat weren’t already at 80! Could they possibly go undefeated? And of course he will be underpaid like Miller and Haslem.
At this point, I’m starting to get interested again. The NBA is turning into a train wreck, but an interesting train wreck. The one good result is that L.A. finally has some competition.
What I don’t like is that so many people will give undue credit to Bosh, and not nearly enough credit to Miller, Haslem, and Iglauskas. But what’s new about that?
tgt
July 13, 2010
Is Ilgauskas still good? I thought he was falling off the cliff.
ilikeflowers
July 13, 2010
Tim,
Ilgauskas has a negative wp48. He’ll cost the team some wins (assuming that he even gets any non-garbage time minutes).
Edmond
July 13, 2010
Well, as a warriors fan and a Lee fan, I’m pretty happy about the Lee–Wright acquisitions (although I’ll miss watching the players we traded for them, regardless of their productivity). After some (very, very rough) calculations I’m still not sure that this is a team that can even make the playoffs in the West, given Andris Biedrins health and free-throw woes, Brandan Wright’s shoulder, and Don Nelson’s propensity to play SG’s at power forward (and Lee-type players at C for half a game and cheerleader for the other half). They’ve given up alot of flexibility to become a team that can win 42 games a year.
But, if the rotation is worked out properly, and if all the players were to play at their career-high levels of efficiency (I’m looking at you Monta Ellis) the warriors could be a pretty competitive team. As a longtime Warriors fan, I have no faith that this will happen.
robbieomalley
July 13, 2010
http://robbieomalley.wordpress.com/2010/07/13/gilbert-makes-a-guarantee/
Chicago Tim
July 13, 2010
I should have looked more closely at Ilgauskas’s numbers. I was looking at the positive average for three years, not the negative results for 2010. So nevermind.
arturogalletti
July 13, 2010
ILS,
The Z point is debatable. I don’t think he was healthy last year. He’ll be playing the role of victory cigar though so it should be ok as long as his WP48 >0
nerdnumbers
July 13, 2010
Wow Jordan halted a potentially good trade to make a bad one. The lesson of the week is never ask Jordan the question “Who’s better. . . ?”
some dude
July 13, 2010
“If your argument is the Knicks improved with addition by subtraction, then fine. But remember that when you’re watching the Knicks sign D-Leaguers to makeup the 1100 mins difference between David Lee & the injured trash heap they received in return. And the defensive stats you cite are a farce. They don’t account for whether or not Lee was actually guarding the opponent’s C or PF when they were racking up those “boxscore stats” because the Knicks perimeter players couldn’t stay in front of their own reflection and Lee had to switch. I don’t believe Lee is a great defender either, but the gap between his defense and the best defense is A LOT smaller than the gap between the worst PFs’ offensive efficiency+rebounding and his offensive efficiency+rebounding.”
Lee was replaced by Amar’e who is a better defensive player (though, that’s not saying much).
The “trash heap” will be better off than paying Lee $12 million to anchor the D with Amar’e. That lineup would get killed.
some dude
July 13, 2010
Funny you say this. Jeffries had always been considered a defensive player, actually. Gallo is pretty decent as well (players did over 10% worse against him). Chandler is average at least, while Duhon isn’t very good at all.
When Lee is in the game, the team gives up 113 per 100 possessions. The fact that NYK. The Knicks were not gave up 112 points per 100 possessins as a team and Lee is a part of their top 14 used lineups.
Of course, NYK without Lee was 3 points better, but Lee played 75% of the minutes so a lot of that bulk is from garbage time, I’d assume.
Their top unit’s defensive averageness was driven by the Jeffires-Gallo-Chandler lineup.
Interesting to look at that unut’s individual defensive numbers while on the court.
Lee: 113
Gallo: 112
Chandler: 110
Jeffries: 108.3
Duhon: 112.5
What’s that about if it walks like a duck? Oh, and it’s not like the stats drive this for me. I see it when they play. He’s a revolving door on defense.
“In fact for the Knicks top 20 lineups used, David Lee was off the court for a whopping 108 minutes.”
Which is why I didn’t actually base my argument on the +/-, but I bring it up now since you wanted to go there. I based it on opponent production.
“So, you’re going to have to explain to me how you can make any judgments with that little amount of data. Then you are going to have to explain why you are making rebounding judgment based on Lee’s main replacement being Earl Barron who in his short amount of minutes played had a higher offensive rebounding percentage than Ben Wallace who led the league in players who played enough minutes. ”
Again, this is straw. My argument wasn’t based on lineups or anything of the sort. It’s based on the fact that Lee’s man produces 26% better, on average, than his norm.
In other words, we know what Lee’s WP48 is. What is his opponent WP48? Figure it out.
The rebounding thing I only pointed out as something “interesting.” I never built an argument around it. Read again, please.
some dude
July 13, 2010
“So Lee is overmatched at Center but does well at PF so GSW (who has a center) is a much better fit for him than NY who didn’t and forced him to play C almost exclusively.”
yeah, but David Lee will be playing C for the Warriors and he would be playing C for the Knicks too (or it makes Amar’e play C, so it’s the same thing).
What Center does GSW have? Biedrens? GSW have been shopping him for a couple weeks now and he probably won’t stay. And if he does, he will probably be hurt soon enough. And he won’t be playing huge minutes, regardless. And Udoh is already hurt! This is a team that used to play harrington as a C. Donnie wants 3 perimeter players and a big man out there.
If you don’t think Lee will be playing huge minutes as a Center for the Warriors, I got a bridge to sell you.
some dude
July 13, 2010
“Some dude
Lee’s defensive numbers against Power Forwards look a lot better than againsts Centers. He’s really been playing out of position for a long time.
He’s not overrated, he’s improperly utilized.”
And won’t be on the knicks or warriors, regardless….so to the knicks he’s not worth $12 million. They’re much better off getting these mediocre role players on short and smaller contracts than to have shelling out $80 million for Lee and having a frontcourt that will never go anywgere. Why lock yourself into mediocrity?
And Randolph is a high reward, low risk player. Totally worth that shot.
some dude
July 13, 2010
I have a question:
If Lee is so awesome, and his D isn’t a problem (which tbh, I can see with my own eyes)..
Why is it that the Spurs, Rockets, and Thunder want no part of this guy?
I think we can all agree those 3 organizations are 3 of the smartest in the league. Morey tried to get Amar’e and Bosh to play PF, but has 0 interest in Lee. Knicks wanted to trade Lee for Parker, but Spurs wanted no part of Lee even though they’re willing to trade Parker. And OKC had every opportunity to go after Lee last season and this one, but again didn’t even want him.
On the flip side, one of the 3 worst organizations in the NBA currently, the GSW, shelled out $80 million for him. This is a franchise with dysfunctions from the owenership, to the GM, down to the coaching staff.
RED FLAG!?
Especially with Morey, who pushed so hard for a PF next to Yao. This guy is a pretty big metrics guru and the rockets have advanced stats you and I don’t even know exist and data we’d all love to have. One would think Yao defensive abilities would fit well with Lee’s offensive game in the same way Morey wanted Amar’e and Bosh. but nope…something must be telling Morey it’s a bad move.
Am I speculating? Sure am. Whatever. Seems like a red flag to me.
All I know is I’ve been around the game to not know when someone is so bad defensively that their offensive production is pretty meaningless.
Like I said, find a WP48 and a WP48 against for me. I’d love to see those types of numbers. I’m fairly confident you will never go anywhere with Lee as your primary big man without a high caliber defensive center. His timing and footwork are so bad it makes me sic that I’m not 7 feet so I could look like Wilt out there, too.
some dude
July 13, 2010
Ilgauskis is done, folks. Did you see him post-trade last season? He moves as quick as my grandmother.
He should retire.
dberri
July 13, 2010
How many people actually just read the six consecutive comments from “some dude”? I got through a bit and then gave up.
Mike
July 13, 2010
Some dude,
“What Center does GSW have? Biedrens? GSW have been shopping him for a couple weeks now and he probably won’t stay. And if he does, he will probably be hurt soon enough. And he won’t be playing huge minutes, regardless.”
Do you have any basis on this besides rumor and speculation? From the interviews and the moves the Warriors made, they are intent on keeping Biedrins, the front office has never been confirmed to be shopping Biedrins. The move of bringing in David Lee was to shore up the PF position. Even if Biedrins plays only 30 minutes a game, when he was healthy such as the ’08 and ’09 seasons he was one of the elite rebounders and one of the most efficient scorer in the league. And he’s only 24!
Secondly, I would rather pay Lee 13 million a year than Amare for 20 million a year. The stats simply do not show that Amare is a much better defender than Lee at the PF spot, and definitely not better enough to outweigh Lee’s superiority at rebounding.
The point is, the trade made both teams better, given that the Knicks already signed Amare. But the Knicks did not have to overpay Amare for his production if they had simply just kept Lee and instead gotten someone to play center so Lee can slide into the PF spot.
Edmond
July 13, 2010
Actually, I don’t think they’re shopping the big B at this time. According to what I’ve read, they made assurances to Lee that they were going to keep him and Ellis and Curry. He will, almost certainly, spend time at Center (and if he doesn’t, someone even less well-suited will).
Randolph has been a .160-.170 player so far, and he’s still very young. He’ll be buried behind Stoudemire in Knicks lineup. Azubukie has been average (although those numbers would look better if he played more shooting guard). Not exactly trash, but the Warriors eventually had to make a consolidation trade of some sort if they wanted to be competitive.
some dude
July 13, 2010
“Do you have any basis on this besides rumor and speculation? From the interviews and the moves the Warriors made, they are intent on keeping Biedrins, the front office has never been confirmed to be shopping Biedrins. The move of bringing in David Lee was to shore up the PF position. Even if Biedrins plays only 30 minutes a game, when he was healthy such as the ’08 and ’09 seasons he was one of the elite rebounders and one of the most efficient scorer in the league. And he’s only 24!”
Biedrens has missed almost a whole season out of the last 2. We’ll see. Either way, Lee will be playing significant minutes as a C. If you don’t think so, you haven’t been watching Donnie.
And while I like Biedrens, let’s not overrate his rebounding. It’s a lot easier to rebound when your teammates are all 6’8 and shorter.
“Secondly, I would rather pay Lee 13 million a year than Amare for 20 million a year. The stats simply do not show that Amare is a much better defender than Lee at the PF spot, and definitely not better enough to outweigh Lee’s superiority at rebounding.”
From the Knicks perspective, I disagree. While I will give you that production wise, on both sides of the floor, they are quite similar. The truth of the matter is Amar’e will sell more tickets and a higher price and sell more merchandise and be more likely to bring in other respectable FAs.
Amar’e value off the court exceeds Lee’s on the court enough to make it worthwhile. Not that I like guaranteeing him $100 million at all, that was also overpaying someone.
“The point is, the trade made both teams better, given that the Knicks already signed Amare. But the Knicks did not have to overpay Amare for his production if they had simply just kept Lee and instead gotten someone to play center so Lee can slide into the PF spot.”
Again, they did have to overpay to get Amar’e. But this has more to do with off the court stuff than on the court stuff.
You can’t just value players on wins and losses. I mean, I wish we could, but that’s just not how it works. It’s like with Iverson last season. As much as I wouldn’t want him on my team, he would generate significantly more revenue for a mediocre team than a better player often would.
some dude
July 13, 2010
As to biedrens being moved, I know that GSW were in talks with Denver regarding his services. A couple other teams as well. Not everything being discussed is reported.
some dude
July 13, 2010
Anyway, a more interesting topic would be the Al Jefferson trade.
At first glance, he seems to be an odd fit for the Utah Jazz’s motion offense. a ball-stopper and horrible passer in that system seems awkward.
Edmond
July 13, 2010
NBA Summer league commentators currently discussing this exact subject!
Mike
July 13, 2010
Edmond,
The Knicks can possibly slide Amare over to C (like he did in PHX) and play Randolph at PF. Although Amare will likely just be a .100 C.
As for the Warriors, the line-up of Biedrins-Lee-Wright-Monta-Curry projects to about 46 wins using a reasonable minute distribution (Andris plays about 2000 min). Factoring in Reggie Williams and CJ Watson off the bench for another 2-3 wins each, that’s a 50 win team already.
If Brandan Wright can come back and be above average and they find some non-negative WP players at back up at Center, then this can be a pretty competitive team.
This is also just using Biedrins’ WP48 from last year (0.205) but his WP48 for his career is 0.245. Also, Curry’s WP48 last year was 0.143, but if we look at his play after the all star break, his WP48 was 0.220. Can he carry that into next season?
Edmond
July 13, 2010
Mike:
Agreed. Thanks for the analysis. I’ll be crossing my fingers. 50 wins is about what it takes to make the playoffs in the west these days.
Michael
July 13, 2010
“How many people actually just read the six consecutive comments from “some dude”? I got through a bit and then gave up.”
Khandor 2.0
some dude
July 13, 2010
The Warriors will not win 40 games next season.
nerdnumbers
July 13, 2010
Some dude,
I like it! Let’s get some preseason predictions going on! Predictions thus far from me:
Miami: 65 win team minimum
Golden State and Sacramento: 40 win teams
New York: 30 wins
Also I bet Durant takes MVP. What do you think?
robbieomalley
July 13, 2010
I’d support a pre season prediction summit as well from the forum. We will see who is the real nostrodamus.
My money is on some dude, if we could get Khandor involved that would be fantastic.
We need to develop a point system.
arturogalletti
July 13, 2010
Rob,
I’m game. It can be like football outsiders losers league.
some dude
July 13, 2010
“Some dude,
I like it! Let’s get some preseason predictions going on! Predictions thus far from me:
Miami: 65 win team minimum
Golden State and Sacramento: 40 win teams
New York: 30 wins
Also I bet Durant takes MVP. What do you think?”
haha. Well, I think it’s still a bit early to make predictions for a bunch of teams as rosters aren’t filled out and I’d like to see the rookies in SL a bit more (ones that will make an impact).
I do agree that the Kings will be much improved. I can see em settling around 35 wins.
Durant MVP would be my fave as well, but they seemed to be quite healthy last season and fear a slight dip (ala Portland). Kobe would be next as I feel a heat-backlash for 1 season from the media, unless they get close to 70. Then Dwight.
I was pretty good last season. Called lakers-celtics finals :D. Also had some good calls on OKC, GSW, NYK, T-wolves, and Atlanta, but really bombed on the bucks and suns.
But sure, I’m game. Just don’t wait to make anything official til pre-season time. :)
robbieomalley
July 13, 2010
I’d say a deadline for predictions being the last week in October would be the most optimal.
some dude
July 13, 2010
sounds like a plan to me :)
arturogalletti
July 13, 2010
1st annual stat geek nba throwdown is a go!
Italian Stallion
July 13, 2010
Lee is a poor defender at both C and PF.
We are basically debating degree of suckiness here.
He’s worse at C because he’s undersized, not very long, and can’t protect the paint at all when perimeter players get beat. However when he plays PFs and similar sized Cs, they blow past him atheletically. He’s simply a bad defender and every unbiased Knicks fan in NY knows and admits that. In order to take advantage of his offensive skills, he has to be paired with a specific type of C to make up for his significant defensive deficiencies.
I like Lee a lot, but I’m not upset by the Golden State trade. In fact I think it was probably a coup for the Knicks.
Anthony Randolph is a 7 foot athletic freak (yes he’s grown and is now 7 foot) that fits the Knicks offensive scheme perfectly because he’s versatile, fast, has a decent handle and can score inside and outside. He’s going to be a match up nightmare for opposing teams. He probably has D’Antoni drooling.
He’ll also fit perfectly with Amare because he’s an excellent rebounder and shot blocker (two things that Amare is not especially good at it given his size). The latter is something the Knicks didn’t have any of last year because Lee is so horrific at it.
Randolph just turned 21. IMO he has the potential to be a better player than Lee. All he has to do is increase his scoring efficiency. Given his age, limited experience, and D’Antoni guiding that part of his game I think that’s a mortal lock in a couple of seasons.
He alone probably makes this a good deal for the Knicks.
However, the Knicks also needed a big tough player and a legitimate SG.
Turiaf can give them some quality minutes at C when they need to get more physical.
Azubuike will given them the second sharpshooter they need on the court with Gallo to help create space for the pick and roll they will feature with Amare and newly signed PG Ray Felton (and upgrade from Duhon).
All 3 players are expected to be healthy by training camp. Randolph in particular is already healthy. He was scheduled to play summer league for GS before the trade.
Ideally a team wants to sign all highly productive players, but the Knicks were dismantled over the last two seasons and had basically become a patchwork of short term contracts instead of a team of players that filled the basic needs a winning basketball team.
Right now they actually have a team of players that can score inside and outside, protect the paint well, defend their position etc…
They are looking very much like a .500 team with several young improving talents, another 11.2 million coming off the cap next year, and no other bad contracts other than overpaying for Amare a bit.
As discussed prior, part of willingness to overpay Amare was a desire to make the Knicks more attractive to other top FA players in the future because he’s a marquee name.
marparker
July 14, 2010
Some Dude,
So you want to use on/off court analysis but not take a minute to look up who Lee is being replaced by? I mean, I use less gas at night when the sun is off the court right. Solar energy must be an old wives tale. Gimme a break.
marparker
July 14, 2010
and wait a minute whats this……The Knicks were a better team with Lee on the court in 07-08 and(gasp) a better rebounding team as well…(louder gasp) the same thing happened in 06-07.
Why do I read your comments?
reservoirgod
July 14, 2010
Italian Stallion:
I live in NYC so I see a lot of Knicks games… My beef w/ the Lee trade is that I think they should’ve gotten more back for a 20-pt, 11-reb all-star that another team valued at $80 mil over 5 yrs and WP valued as a productive player. I call the players the Knicks got for Lee a “trash heap” because I don’t believe Randolph will be able to stay healthy (only 63 & 33 games played in 1st two seasons) as he comes off ankle surgery – Grant Hill, Tyson Chandler anyone? Azubuike tore the patella tendon in his right knee, had the left knee ‘scoped due to an inflamed patella tendon & may never be the same player again. And Turiaf stinks with a negative WP. I don’t understand why they couldn’t have gotten a 1st round pick (like Minnesota got for Al “One Good Knee” Jefferson) or even a sign-and-trade that included Anthony Morrow instead of Azubuike. To me, it illustrates one of the following:
1. Donnie Walsh is a bad GM. He got fleeced by Daryl Morey in the Jeffries trade and I think he may have gotten fleeced by Larry Riley in the Lee trade.
2. The Knicks only acquired these players to dump them later and are currently lying about their immediate importance to the franchise.
3. While the league values scoring, GMs do not value Lee’s scoring totals because the team was so bad & they don’t believe he can replicate them outside of D’Antoni’s system.
Am I missing something?
some dude
July 14, 2010
“Some Dude,
So you want to use on/off court analysis but not take a minute to look up who Lee is being replaced by? I mean, I use less gas at night when the sun is off the court right. Solar energy must be an old wives tale. Gimme a break.”
Your reading comprehension must be poor because I specifically said I did not want to look at +/-. I merely pointed them out once someone else wanted to open that can of worms, only for the purpose of looking at it.
My argument is built around opponent production % increase.
some dude
July 14, 2010
“I live in NYC so I see a lot of Knicks games… My beef w/ the Lee trade is that I think they should’ve gotten more back for a 20-pt, 11-reb all-star that another team valued at $80 mil over 5 yrs and WP valued as a productive player. ”
No offense, but you clearly don’t understand how the NBA works as a business.
Lee was an unrestricted free agent. He was no longer a real asset for the Knicks. In fact, the most they usually could expect to get for him is a trade exception…only they were under the cap to a TPE wouldn’t do anything for them and be voided.
Instead of a TPE, they decided to get some players back.
What you seem to not understand was that the Knicks had no real bargaining power and no real choice. Lee was gone the moment they signed Amar’e and would be on another team that offered him less money, but GSW were only willing to give Lee that deal if the Knicks took back those players and would not bother signing Lee if the Knicks required anything more.
The fact that the knicks got Randolph from them is astounding and a horrible decision by the GSW.
This was not a mid-season trade. This was not a typical off-season trade. The Knicks got back more from the Warriors than they’d have gotten from any other team in the league. And I say this despite thinking Walsh has botched everything else up.
reservoirgod
July 14, 2010
So the Heat give up draft picks between now and 2017 for Lebron & Bosh but I don’t understand how the business of the NBA works? I guess I forgot to add the media guide for the team that has “some dude” working in the front office. Even if David Lee was going to sign w/ GSW without a sign-and-trade, the Knicks didn’t have to take contracts for injured, unproven players off their books and then sell it to their fans as hope for the future. The only real hope would’ve been healthy, productive players (i.e. Morrow, who the Nets obtained) or draft picks (a little hope is better than false hope).
marparker
July 14, 2010
some dude,
So forget about what you wrote because you didn’t really mean it? Why the “f” did you write it? Onto the couterpart stats arguement. He still outproduces his opponents so what is the point? Isn’t the point to outplay your opponent?
some dude
July 14, 2010
“o the Heat give up draft picks between now and 2017 for Lebron & Bosh but I don’t understand how the business of the NBA works?”
They gave up the least valuable draft picks in the entire draft…assuming they are a top 2 team.
Uh, big deal?
“en if David Lee was going to sign w/ GSW without a sign-and-trade, the Knicks didn’t have to take contracts for injured, unproven players off their books and then sell it to their fans as hope for the future. ”
Only Randolph is being sold for the future.
This was a good move because anyone they sign as a UFA right now wants long term deal. What do you think makes more sense? committing to Turiaf for 2 years, who comes off the books around when Cp3 (and I think) Deron are UFAs or sign someone like Luke Ridnour for 4 years and eat that cap space?
Being part of this blog I’d assume you know what an opportunity cost is. Think about them.
some dude
July 14, 2010
“The only real hope would’ve been healthy, productive players (i.e. Morrow, who the Nets obtained) or draft picks (a little hope is better than false hope).”
With respect to Morrow, against the rules for the Knicks to S/T him for Lee ASAIK. They could have traded a 2nd rounder for him, though. but that spot is kind of filled with Gallo/Chandler right now and I don’t think Morrow wanted to go there at all, anyway.
You got to look at the entire situations. Morrow wasn’t an option.
some dude
July 14, 2010
“some dude,
So forget about what you wrote because you didn’t really mean it? Why the “f” did you write it? Onto the couterpart stats arguement. He still outproduces his opponents so what is the point? Isn’t the point to outplay your opponent?”
The point is that you outplay your opponent, yes. But what’s more important is by how much you outplay them.
Lesser plays outplay opponents better. I’d rather have someone give me 15-8 and hold the other guy to 12-9 than get 20-10 and hold the other guy to 18-10.
marparker
July 15, 2010
some dude,
Well, that’s an entirely different arguement. I guess we’ll have to see.
reservoirgod
July 15, 2010
Some Dude:
This is my last comment on this topic. I thought you were an intelligent fan but your last few comments have made it clear that dberri had the right reaction to your comments above.
1st point – I think the Knicks would have been better off w/ lottery-protected picks than any of the players they received from GSW. That addresses your clumsy attempt to explain why GSW and the Knicks didn’t trade draft picks for David Lee.
Randolph is NOT the only player being sold as the future. ESPN New York attributes the following quote to Walsh when he introduced the new players at a press conference, “…the guys I’m bringing here now are meant to come here and stay here. In other words, they’re the kind of players you’d want even if you did have the cap flexibility to go out and get another player.” Frank Isola of the Daily News called Turiaf a starting center and said Azubuike is “certainly a rotation player” in his story. John Schuhmann of NBA.com wrote that Turiaf & Azubuike will provide “toughness” to improve the Knicks defense. All three of these players are being sold as major contributors to an improved Knicks team in 2011. And it’s all garbage. I don’t even know what you’re talking about w/ opportunity costs. I said they should’ve traded Lee for draft picks (which would’ve taken minimum cap space) and you’re talking about signing UFAs. WTF? Who said anything about Luke Ridnour? I’ll throw your argument about cap space right back at you: what makes more sense – a traded player exception & picks for David Lee or Turiaf’s two-year contract and his negative impact on productivity?
2nd point – I haven’t read anything in the CBA that prevents teams from trading the sign-and-trade contracts of two unrestricted free agents and Larry Coon hasn’t published anything in his NBA Salary Cap FAQ that mentions it either. It also doesn’t make sense that Morrow would rather play for the Nets than the Knicks (they’re right across the river from each other, one plays in front of 15k+ fans and the other plays in front of no one). We’ll see who produces more wins next season, Morrow or Azubuike. The only potential negative impact of Morrow would have been cap space for 2012 which they could make up by declining the team options for some of their rookie-scale contracts.
some dude
July 15, 2010
Dude, the GSW are over the cap. They CANNOT trade for Lee without shelling out nearly $10 mil in contracts.
It doesn’t matter what you think, these are THE RULES. Read Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ. The Knicks can take back salary without giving any out, NOT the Warriors.
(sorry for emphasis).
As for Morrow, Coon recently addressed the question as he’s an RFA and not a UFA and he seemed to indicate the opposite. Not to mention, he’d be a BYC player making it even harder to trade.
As to Morrow’s motives for New Jersey, I’m guessing $$$ and playing time are a big factor. Knicks wouldn’t have committed to a 3rd year.
Morrow is the better player and will continue to be. They were NOT an option for the NYK and neither were draft picks + a TPE (you don’t get a TPE when you’re under the cap by the salary amount, dude).
I’m sorry, you need to brush up on the rules. Coon’s FAQ is the right place to start. Re-read it.