Summer League Analysis from Ty Willihnganz (the Courtside Analyst)

Posted on July 17, 2010 by


Editor’s Note: For those interested in Summer League results, Ty Willihnganz—of Courtside Analyst (a blog I have included in The Wages of Wins Network)–  has examined some of the numbers.  I have taken the liberty of re-posting his analysis below.  In looking at these numbers, keep in mind that two years ago I did a small study of Summer League numbers and couldn’t find any predictive value from these stats.  Such a study should probably be updated.  For now, though, we need to remember that what we see during the summer might not be telling us anything about a player’s future prospects in the NBA.  That being said, people who think Gordon Hayward and DeMarcus Cousins will be good NBA players can be encouraged by what has happened so far this summer.

Maybe the Bucks got a steal in Tiny Gallon.  Despite his awful turnover problem, he is one of only three rookies who are posting positive adjusted Win Score numbers so far this summer.

I only calculated the numbers for rookies and others whom I was interested in evaluating.  I adjusted each player’s WS to his projected position and then estimated how that number would translate to Marginal Win Score per 48 (this measure is explained by Ty HERE).

A player I was high on in the NBA Draft previous to the last one, PG Ty Lawson, is absolutely dominating.  I do not even know what he’s doing playing in the summer.  I still think the Bucks would have been better off drafting him.  He was on the board when they selected Jennings.

Another player who is a man among boys is the third year player out of Memphis, C Joey Dorsey.  Because of his size he seems to get only minimal respect in the NBA, but he just dominates wherever he plays.

The best rookie so far has been Utah’s Gordon Hayward.  He was exceptional in the Orlando Summer League.  DeMarcus Cousins, the player I was highest on, has proven himself to be a tremendous rebounder, but his True Shooting Percentage has not been high, and he has a turnover problem.

The first number listed is the player’s raw Win Score per48.  The second is his WS48 adjusted for position.  The third is his estimated Marginal Win Score, taking into account that most rookies Opp Win Score is slightly below average.

1. Joey Dorsey…(26.45)…(+13.53)…(+6.45)

2. Ty Lawson…(15.99)…(+9.19)…(+3.24)

3. Gordon Hayward…(14.84)…(+6.55)…(+3.01)

4. Tiny Gallon…(13.42)…(+1.52)…(+0.41)

5. DeMarcus Cousins…(12.52)…(+0.21)…(+0.02)

6. Luke Harangody…(11.57)…(-0.23)…(-0.46)

7. Hasheem Thabeet…(10.90)…(-1.40)…(-0.51)

8. Patrick Patterson…(9.70)…(-1.00)…(-0.92)

9. Evan Turner…(4.55)…(-2.45)…(-1.17)

10. John Wall…(4.34)…(-2.46)…(-1.26)

11. Luke Babbitt…(4.21)…(-3.59)…(-1.43)

12. Damien James…(5.16)…(-4.84)…(-2.14)

13. Wesley Johnson…(2.18)…(-5.32)…(-2.66)

14. Larry Sanders…(4.12)…(-6.98)…(-3.69)

15. Derrick Favors…(4.35)…(-7.55)…(-3.74)

16. Hassan Whiteside…(4.96)…(-8.94)…(-4.12)

Anything below -1.00 MWS48 is bad news for a regular player, and the vast majority of the rookies are below that mark.  The NBA Draft is becoming harder and harder to predict, and less and less valuable it seems.

– Ty Willihnganz