Editor’s Note: For those interested in Summer League results, Ty Willihnganz—of Courtside Analyst (a blog I have included in The Wages of Wins Network)– has examined some of the numbers. I have taken the liberty of re-posting his analysis below. In looking at these numbers, keep in mind that two years ago I did a small study of Summer League numbers and couldn’t find any predictive value from these stats. Such a study should probably be updated. For now, though, we need to remember that what we see during the summer might not be telling us anything about a player’s future prospects in the NBA. That being said, people who think Gordon Hayward and DeMarcus Cousins will be good NBA players can be encouraged by what has happened so far this summer.
Maybe the Bucks got a steal in Tiny Gallon. Despite his awful turnover problem, he is one of only three rookies who are posting positive adjusted Win Score numbers so far this summer.
I only calculated the numbers for rookies and others whom I was interested in evaluating. I adjusted each player’s WS to his projected position and then estimated how that number would translate to Marginal Win Score per 48 (this measure is explained by Ty HERE).
A player I was high on in the NBA Draft previous to the last one, PG Ty Lawson, is absolutely dominating. I do not even know what he’s doing playing in the summer. I still think the Bucks would have been better off drafting him. He was on the board when they selected Jennings.
Another player who is a man among boys is the third year player out of Memphis, C Joey Dorsey. Because of his size he seems to get only minimal respect in the NBA, but he just dominates wherever he plays.
The best rookie so far has been Utah’s Gordon Hayward. He was exceptional in the Orlando Summer League. DeMarcus Cousins, the player I was highest on, has proven himself to be a tremendous rebounder, but his True Shooting Percentage has not been high, and he has a turnover problem.
The first number listed is the player’s raw Win Score per48. The second is his WS48 adjusted for position. The third is his estimated Marginal Win Score, taking into account that most rookies Opp Win Score is slightly below average.
1. Joey Dorsey…(26.45)…(+13.53)…(+6.45)
2. Ty Lawson…(15.99)…(+9.19)…(+3.24)
3. Gordon Hayward…(14.84)…(+6.55)…(+3.01)
4. Tiny Gallon…(13.42)…(+1.52)…(+0.41)
5. DeMarcus Cousins…(12.52)…(+0.21)…(+0.02)
6. Luke Harangody…(11.57)…(-0.23)…(-0.46)
7. Hasheem Thabeet…(10.90)…(-1.40)…(-0.51)
8. Patrick Patterson…(9.70)…(-1.00)…(-0.92)
9. Evan Turner…(4.55)…(-2.45)…(-1.17)
10. John Wall…(4.34)…(-2.46)…(-1.26)
11. Luke Babbitt…(4.21)…(-3.59)…(-1.43)
12. Damien James…(5.16)…(-4.84)…(-2.14)
13. Wesley Johnson…(2.18)…(-5.32)…(-2.66)
14. Larry Sanders…(4.12)…(-6.98)…(-3.69)
15. Derrick Favors…(4.35)…(-7.55)…(-3.74)
16. Hassan Whiteside…(4.96)…(-8.94)…(-4.12)
Anything below -1.00 MWS48 is bad news for a regular player, and the vast majority of the rookies are below that mark. The NBA Draft is becoming harder and harder to predict, and less and less valuable it seems.
– Ty Willihnganz
Wages of Wins Journal 
some dude
July 17, 2010
::awaits Caracter’s and Ebank’s numbers::
khandor
July 17, 2010
re: “The best rookie so far has been Utah’s Gordon Hayward. He was exceptional in the Orlando Summer League.”
IIRC, certain esteemed individuals who post comments on this site regularly did not feel that Gordon Hayward would eventually develop into a high calibre NBA player, based upon his “production numbers” in college.
I, for one, did not share that opinion and, in particular, am looking forward to watching this young man develop over the next several seasons.
When all is said and done, years from now, the chances are pretty good that he will have been a multiple time all-star in his NBA career. :-)
marparker
July 17, 2010
We’re getting a little excited over a week’s worth of games aren’t we?
Buckeroo
July 17, 2010
First of all, Tiny Gallon-great name! And yes, marparker, we are…except for John Wall. He is Iverson with passing ability, and we should all get ready to sit back and enjoy. I would love if the WoW put together Iverson’s stats v. Wall’s on a semi-regular basis, and, as a diehard C’s fan, toss in Rajon Rando as well. Seems intriguing?
Buckeroo
July 17, 2010
Clearly, my point would be to use historical #s for all their rookie year, though I think statiscally, Rondo would get killed the first year or two. Which maybe makes my point here?
shawnfuryan
July 17, 2010
-Marparker
No, no, I think that we can assume that the summer league numbers so far completely invalidate college production. I mean don’t you remember when Donte Green had that great summer league performance despite having very underwhelming college numbers? Remember how after that he became a perennial All-Star? I’m ready to start the campaign right now. Gordon Hayward ROY 2011!
Seriously though. Gordon Hayward had very solid numbers last year in college. He’s got a pretty good chance of being an above average player in the NBA.
Michael
July 17, 2010
“The NBA Draft is becoming harder and harder to predict, and less and less valuable it seems.”
A little premature? Also, how is the draft becoming less valuable? How many of today’s top players went undrafted?
some dude
July 17, 2010
Summer League is really only good for telling who cannot play, not who can.
marparker
July 17, 2010
I like Heyward. I gave him an above average pro grade in my own system. I think Utah got themselves a pretty good pro. I think Utah has themselves a whole lot of pretty good pros. Too bad none of them play shooting guard.
Joe
July 17, 2010
“The NBA Draft is becoming…and less and less valuable it seems.”
Uh…did you bother to think before you typed this sentence?
Sam Cohen
July 17, 2010
I was waiting for someone to do an analysis of summer league numbers because I wanted to see how Joey Dorsey was doing. Loved him when he was in college and was disappointed that he hasn’t been able to get into an NBA rotation yet.
The other player who I was excited to see on a summer league roster was Mike Green. I watched him play in the Alaska Shootout a few years ago and remember really liking him. Not sure that he’s having a very good summer league, but I was excited that the Sixers put him on the roster.
arturogalletti
July 17, 2010
I like Hayward and think he’ll be a good wp48 player and frequent source of contention on this forum for years to come. Selection Bias, gotta love it.
BTB, new posts on
The Quality of the NBA over time
Early Free Agent Wrapup
Just click my name if you’re interested.
Sam Cohen
July 17, 2010
Just got back from Truehoop, where one of Kevin Arnovitz’s bullets was:
“Aside from hitting the glass and the occasionally effective defensive stand one-on-one in the post, it’s hard to find a sphere of the game where Joey Dorsey helps his team win basketball games. He’s more likely to trap himself too far beneath the backboard than he is to get off a quality shot at close range.”
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/18259/day-eight-las-vegas-summer-league-roundup
A slightly different take on how Joey Dorsey is doing…
arturogalletti
July 17, 2010
Sam,
Saw that. So aside from getting rebounds and playing D he doesn’t help you win basketball games got it. Any bets on the chances he winds up in miami, boston, SA or OKC if Memphis cuts him?
bags fly free
July 18, 2010
so greg monroe didnt make it to top 15? there goes my pistons dream haha,
anyways, some dude is right, if u suck in the summer league, u will definitely be terrible in nba
Phil
July 24, 2010
some dude,
In general I’d agree, but there are definite exceptions. George Hill played atrociously his first stint in the summer league – FG % was abysmal – but turned out to be a fine NBA player.
College does a lot more to predict a player’s effectiveness than the summer league. More structured playing style, more practice, larger sample size, etc all seem like plausible reasons as to why.
bills
July 25, 2010
Seems a waste of time and effort to evaluate summer league results. That is an artificial environment.
Often the players are not playing their normal game but showing the coaches some aspect of the game. E.G. Dejaun Blair ( before he was invalided out by a hamstring) was asked by his coaches to work on his mid-range jumper in the summer league. His game would have been uncharacteristically one dimensional and hence not a reliable measure of how he was going to play in real games.
Also, the players on the summer league teams generally have not worked together very much before and so it is a lot like the all-star game. A lot of one-on-one stuff that has little to do with how real NBA games are played.