Editor’s Note: Arturo Galletti has been tracking the NBA’s free agent market. Recently he reported at his blog – Arturo Silly Little Stats (part of the Wages of Wins Network)– the teams he believes have been the winners and losers in the free agent market (thus far). For those who have not been reading Arturo’s analysis, this is re-posted below:
As of now about 60% (260 wins) of the projected wins available (410 Wins) on the Free Agent market are off the board. So I felt it was a good time to update the table and put down some early thoughts.
First off, The Updated Free Agent Guide
Winners & Losers
Here’s my quick table on winners and losers:
Quick Thoughts & Grades by Team :
- Miami: Enough has been said about Miami in this space and elsewhere but let me add: Wow,just wow. My Grade: Eleventy
- Golden State : A forum on whether or not you like David Lee. Dorell Wright is good. My Grade: A, no selection bias here.
- Detroit: Detroit kept Ben Wallace. That’s real forward looking . My Grade: C
- Chicago: The Bulls did not get exactly what they wanted but they still massively upgraded. Chicago went two of three (Boozer and Brewer are wow, korver not so much). My Grade: B+
- Phoenix: Classic Suns pantsing the league on childress and cutting payroll. The only reason I withhold an A is Frye. Looking at their roster they may not be done yet. My Grade: B+ for now
- Orlando: The Magic were good but they could be great it all depends on coach Stan Van playing Redick more over the corpse of Vinsanity My Grade: B- for questionable minute allocation
- Lakers: As a Celtics fan, #$#%% #@%@@!!!! And they stole a guy in the 2nd round of the draft (Caracter). The Kobe deal (not included on the list as it happened in-season) could be the turd in the punch bowl in the future. My Grade: A+
- Houston: Again better than it looks. The Yao extension is worth a hundred million easy to that franchise. My Grade: A+
- Milwakee: Sneaky. Makes a good team, better and deeper. Fear the Deer! My Grade: B for Bucks
- Boston: Better on paper. I heart Pierce & Allen but they sure are creaky. Love me some pocket kryptonite. Jermaine O’Neal? Just Ugh! The Rondo Deal (again not counted in the total as it happened in-season ) keeps a passing grade. My Grade: C for Creaky Celtics
- Toronto:Meh My Grade: D for doubt they’ll make the playoffs
- Charlotte: Sneaky. Young above average PF on the cheap (Thomas). Could be good but they need to start him. The rumor on Shaun Livingston would give them an A for me. My Grade: B for Brown
- Denver: Meh again My Grade: D
- Knicks: New York deserves and will get their own post. I will say that by breaking even they lapped the regime of Lord Thomas My Grade: Watch this space later
- Nets: Throwing some good money after bad. They’re getting a new GM though My Grade: D comrade
- Dallas: Cuban seem to delight at paying full price on day old cheese. Yes it tastes good now they’re past the expiration date Grade: D for Dirk is Dissapoint
- Minnesota: Khan and Free Darko, a marriage made in comedy heaven. I feel for Love. Grade: F
- Atlanta & Memphis: Question, what Free Agent contracts were signed that were immediately untradeable? Answer: Joe Johnson & Rudy Gay Grade: Z for Zombie franchise killer contracts.
– Arturo Galletti
Posted in: Basketball Stories
Wages of Wins Journal 
Scondren
July 18, 2010
I’m going to be curious to see how the Bulls do when they have Rose-Brewer-Deng-Boozer-Noah on the floor verse a lineup that has Korver replacing either Brewer or Deng.
Kevin
July 18, 2010
Where do the Rockets stand after bringing in the exhausted Brad Miller for 3 years at 5mil a piece? At the age of 34! Any reason at all to believe that last year’s performance wasn’t a sign of irreversible decline? Why not hire some 7’0 Ukrainian knucklehead to stand around and go “GRRRR, rebounds” for a fraction of that. You could probably get more.
arturogalletti
July 18, 2010
Kevin,
I LOL hard. Given Yao’s injury history, Miller is a very smart move. His value is $7.6 mill a year and he’s getting 5 a year. It stay an A+
szr
July 18, 2010
I almost hate to ask, Arturo, but what would you grade the Wizards?
Right now now, Wall looks less like a future all star, and more like a future starbury. Who else could shoot 35% in summer league while taking 30+ shots and not be laughed out of the gym?
arturogalletti
July 18, 2010
szr,
See here for a full breakdown of the roster:
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2010/05/23/the-value-proposition-in-the-nba/
Right now that’s a horrible team. They really need to go the OKC and Portland route and convert scorers for picks and assets. Wall was a bad pick for them. You want Wall to be Rondo or Kidd not Iverson but that’s not happening with this roster. You build with bigs then go small and there were plenty bigs in the draft. The wiz had picks 1,30 & 35 and came out with a PG & 2 SF. Huh? I don’t understand their thinking, pick Wall maybe but you need to get some bigs around him.
SA
July 18, 2010
szr has a point about the Wizards. Wall was 4 for 19 shooting one game.
It’s nice that the new owner has read Stumbling on Wins but there’s no evidence the general manager has any intention whatsoever of implementing this type of statistical framework in personnel decisions. For example, there was no effort to get David Lee from New York in a sign and trade. Or to grab Childress.
The Wizards stated team philosophy is to get young players. Perhaps a better guiding principle would be to get good, or better yet, really good, basketball players.
dberri
July 18, 2010
Quick preview… I am posting a comment on John Wall later today.
some dude
July 18, 2010
shoulnd’t free agents lost be somehow counted.
For instance, the Lakers let Farmar go and be paid more than he’s worth and replaced him with a more valuable PG for the same price. Should bump the Lakers up a bit! :D
Actually, I say this more to look at Phoenix’s move of replacing Amar’e and Barbosa with the guys they moved em for.
dberri
July 18, 2010
SD has a good point (although I am not inclined to ask Arturo to do even more :)
some dude
July 18, 2010
Another question:
No Spurs signing of Splitter? His deal seems like a steal to me. no WP48 numbers from Europe on him?
reservoirgod
July 18, 2010
The Wizards can’t be taken seriously until they get rid of Arenas, Flip & Grunfield. As for the Rockets, Morey will be exposed eventually. Brad Miller’s a far cry from Mutombo.
art
July 18, 2010
“The Bulls did not get exactly what they wanted but they still massively upgraded.”
I guess you didn’t watch Bulls games much. This current Bulls team is down-graded.
In terms of impact on winning:
Hinrich > Brewer plus Korver, Hinrich > Boozer
Thabo > Brewer or Korver
Salmons > Korver or Brewer
Tyrus is a better defensive player, less injury-prone and cheaper than Boozer.
Hinrich is a better PG than Rose because he makes everyone better when he is on the court. Rose makes everyone looks worse (except Noah because Noah’s game doesn’t dependent on who is the PG); that’s why Thabo, Salmons and Tyrus all looked like busts (even Deng looked like a bust sometimes when Hinrich was not in the starting line-up), so the Bulls had to trade them. I have not seen a small guard that runs so many talented or valuable players out of town in a short 2-yr period. Iverson is the last small guard that is hard to play with. See how well Salmons played for the Buck. People say it’s because Skiles is a better coach, which it’s not true (if Skiles is a good coach, why the Buck were lousy before the stupid Bulls GM gave them Salmons?). Salmons played better for the Buck because Jennings is easier to play with than the overhyped/overrated Rose.
I know Hinrich doesn’t do well by WP stats; that’s because WP stats doesn’t (or can’t accurately) assess his defense effect (as an individual and on the whole team) and the intangibles he brings to the game. When he is on the court, all other 4 players play better (eg, WP 0.05 better for each); so when you add these numbers to Hinrich, he could be easily a WP .25 player. That being said, I still like the WoW stats much better than PER (I don’t care about PER at all because it’s a stat encouraging ball-hogs). At least WoW stats don’t rate those shoot-first, shoot-always, teammate-last and defense-last (eg, Rose, B Gordon, etc.) high.
In terms of impact on winning, Hinrich is the most valuable player on the Bulls in the past 7 years. Without Hinrich, the Bulls would make “ZERO” playoffs for the past 6 years (in the past 2 years, without Hinrich, the Bulls winning % is .4 or below; even though the 2008-09 team is the most talented team since MJ/Pippen left). Hinrich led less talented teams to 47 and 49 wins (the 2007-08 team quitted on the terrible coach Skiles, but the talent is still there). Rose is just very lucky to be drafted to a team that has all the talents winning 49 games. With all of these talents, Rose couldn’t even lead the team to a winning record. With Rose as the starting PG, the team with a much improved Noah replacing a much declined Wallace won 8 games fewer than the team when Hinrich was the starting PG in 2006-07. Yet, their fans are so delusional and think Rose is some superstar, even comparing him with MJ or Pippen (or saying we don’t want LBJ or Wade because we have Rose). For the time being, Rose is M Ellis 2.0, although he does have potential.
The best show of this current Bulls team next year is winning about 41 games or the 8 seed (and be swept out of the 1st round). I wouldn’t be surprised that this team will only win 35-38 games and miss the playoff next year. The Bulls future is bleak. Soon they will have to give max or near max to Noah (who is more valuable than Boozer) and max to Rose (because all the hype surrounds him). The team will be still a 1st round team and sometimes miss the playoff for the next 6 years or longer.
art
July 18, 2010
Hinrich is very talented. You can check his playoff box score, which is better than Rose except PPG; that’s because Rose took a lot of more shots (Rose needed 25 shots to score 27 pts. Had Hinrich take 25 shots, he could easily score 30+ pts because he is a more efficient shooter); not to mention the defense and intangibles that Hinrich brought to games that never showed up in the box score.
The problem with Hinrich is his loser mentality and his stupidity (he has talent to be an elite PG, but he has a 10th man’s mentality). See his first two years as a pro (more impressive than Rose). He basically brought the Bulls from the bottom to respectable, much like what Roy did for the Blazer. Roy gets a max contract. Hinrich’s contract is much undervalued (just thinking how much more playoff money he helped the owner make). But their fans on and on bash him for overpaid (they don’t even know they get a bargain because of Hinrich and his agent’s stupidity). He was a starting PG for team USA when the contract was offered (a much low-ball contract; see all the starting PGs of team USA have a max contract).
Hirinch is too stupid to know it’s OK to look for your own offensive stats a little (his idea to make his teammates better is to make himself lousy offensively). CP3, D-Will, Parker, etc. look for their own offensive stats from time to time. Does anyone say they’re selfish? All you need is to have balance between looking for your own offensive stats and get your teammates involved. Hinrich can shoot, but he wasted 70-90% of his energy on the defensive end to cover the defensive shortage of his backcourtmates (that’s a main reason his offensive stats suffer). He doesn’t realize that it’s not his fault that his stupid GM always drafted ball-hog/defense-lacking undersized SGs or combo guards. I don’t mean Hinrich is a stupid player (in fact he has the highest basketball IQ on the bulls roster). He is stupid from a professional point of view. He doesn’t understand one of the most important criteria for professionalism is to want to be the best you can be and to not let anyone hinder you from reaching your potential. He somehow has no desire or doesn’t care to be best he can be (had he have Wade mentality and smartness, he would be an elite PG by now).
He just wants to please everyone (he ends up please no one, everyone blames him for the Bulls problems), a sure way to failure and it’s why he is largely underachieved. He is a typical example that if you don’t respect yourself, nobody will respect you (the Bulls coaches misused him and pushed him around all the time). The Bulls GMs refused trading him to a winning team that he can start at the PG position when several winning teams or championship contenders wanted to trade for him and were willing to give the Bulls a pick or so; instead the Bulls FO waited to dump him (+ a pick + cash) to a bottom team that he has no chance to start as a PG. He is a typical example that if you don’t protect yourself, nobody will.
Sorry my comments are long and some are not relevant to the topic. I happened to have a little time today and am posting here because there are some smart commentators on this site (eg, Daniel, brgulker, etc.).
Edmond
July 18, 2010
art,
I think you’re going to be pleasantly surprised this season.
I also think you’ll end up liking Boozer more once you get a chance to watch him (I agree that loosing Thomas sucks). He seems like just the sort of player you would like–he’s a very good passer (4th in AP48M among power forwards).
some dude
July 18, 2010
Thabo wasn’t on Chicago last season.
Salmons was bleh when was on the Bulls last season, was revitalized on the Bucks.
Hinrich’s production as a PG was pretty mediocre last season. Offense stalled big time when Rose was out of the game, even when Hinrich was playing PG with some of Rose’s best units.
Rose did not inherit 49 win team, he went into a 33 win team. That 49 win team had every player playing near peak level (minus Big Ben) so far.
That team became a 39 win team the next year as most of the players declined, Hinrich especially who shot inefficiently all season long. Later Big Ben was traded to Cleveland.
Rose came into that team and they won 41 games, which is really good considering Rose was a rookie given the keys to the team and only 4 rotation players didn’t miss like 20+ games, often at the same time.
I like Hinrich. Defense is definitely solid and he’s an overall good player, though he seems to make boneheaded mistakes in important moment, but let’s not misremember the course of events.
Also, Tyrus Thomas’ FG% is pretty pathetic given his position.
some dude
July 18, 2010
“That team became a 39 win team the next year as most of the players declined, Hinrich especially who shot inefficiently all season long. Later Big Ben was traded to Cleveland.”
Sorry, that should read as a “33 win team.”
arturogalletti
July 18, 2010
sd,
I love the Splitter signing. I’ve been watching take apart the Puerto Rican national team for a while. He’s the perfect compliment for Blair and Duncan.
Also the Bulls look like a two or three seed in the east to me (I haven’t crunched the numbers).
John Giagnorio
July 18, 2010
I think art has a good point about Hinrich being a stupid loser. Not sure I agree that he’s very talented though :)
Someone should really write up a long blog post about the Bulls since Jordan retired.
Some ideas:
– The mediocre production out of high draft picks (by my count, 2 #1’s, 3 #2’s, 1 #3, etc)
-The inexplicable hatred for these high draft picks that leads to them being traded for pennies on the dollar (Chandler, Thomas)
– The horrible contracts given out to “nice guys” from Good College Programs (Hinrich, Deng)
– The walking disaster that was Andres Nocioni.
For bonus points, you could reference the cheapskate owner or the clueless coaches. Make it happen, WOW network!
Evan
July 18, 2010
“A Lovesong for Hinrich” by Art
Daniel
July 19, 2010
San Antonio’s signing of Splitter/Bonner was great– Jefferson opting out and James Jones choosing to return to the Heat were fortuitous. James Anderson was an above-average college player and an efficient scorer. As a huge Spurs fan, I’m thrilled with how this offseason has turned out so far. I’m praying for Matt Barnes for the remainder of the MLE– that would give them one of the best crunch-time lineups in the league with a healthy Parker– Parker .180, Ginobili .290, Barnes .190, Blair .270, Duncan .310. A top-8 WP48 player at every position. A bench of Splitter (probably .150 rookie season), Bonner .110, Hill .100, McDyess .100, Hairston .090. No duds, no unproductive scorers, no players riding on reputation rather than production. THAT would be the best team in the NBA, South Beach included.
todd2
July 19, 2010
Splitter’s probably the key for the Spurs. I like Blair as much as the next guy, but he’s an undersized pf. San Antonio was a donut team this past season when Duncan sat, they got killed on the boards (18 orbs by PHX in a playoff game).
arturogalletti
July 19, 2010
todd2,
I personally think that Splitter at C and Blair at PF will be a beautiful thing.
Daniel
July 19, 2010
I disagree strongly about Blair– for one thing– his standing reach is exactly the same as Blake Griffin’s and .5″ more than Kevin Love. Chuck Hayes is 6’5″ and plays center and Charles Barkley is 6’4″ and dominated at the 4. If Blair was 3″ taller, he would likely be better, but his man-to-man defense improved by leaps and bounds during the season. His help defense does leave a lot to be desired, and he’ll probably never switch out to the perimeter on PGs on the P&R because of his footspeed (Duncan and Garnett are really the only two big men ever to dominate at P&R switching), but much of that was being a rookie and being in the Spurs complicated defensive system. For a rookie, he had a solid season defensively, his fantastic WP48 notwithstanding.
Regardles, “undersized PF” just means “Quickness Advantage” which Blair does indeed have, and he is big enough and long enough that he doesn’t get pushed around. Regardless, production is all that matters, and being “undersized” only matters if it undermines production.
arturogalletti
July 19, 2010
Daniel,
Add to that the fact that every time I watched him play he looked stronger than anybody else on the floor in the box. People would just fly of him. It really does remind of a young Barkley or Moses Malone.
todd2
July 19, 2010
I like Blair, I just don’t think he’s the answer in the middle. He looks dwarfed by 7 footers and the Spurs had problems rebounding when Duncan sat. I’m with Arturo re: Splitter and Blair.
todd2
July 19, 2010
Does anyone else think Atlanta’s window of opportunity is closing? Several teams in the East have upgraded.
some dude
July 19, 2010
Atlanta had a window of opportunity?
Eliot
July 19, 2010
I think Memphis takes the cake for worst off-season, signing Rudy Gay to a crazy contract while also not even submitting a qualifying offer to Ronnie Brewer was terrible. They managed to make their team worse while spending major money, in addition to preventing another team from screwing itself with a similarly cap killing Rudy Gay deal.
reservoirgod
July 19, 2010
Some dude:
That was pretty funny…
some dude
July 19, 2010
Atlanta’s was worse because they have no long term flexibility and their JJ signing will probably cost them Al Horford in the long run.
Gay is still tradeable (unlike JJ) in 2 years and Zbo comes off the books, soon.
Of course, it’s like picking between syphilis and gonorrhea.
lurker
July 19, 2010
Thanks for the graph, but…I like the fact that this blog is usually free of the vacuous emotive spewing of “quick thoughts” and “my takes”. Let’s go back to that.
If the extra comments are witty, well-reasoned and insightful, o.k. But you are not a very good writer, technically or stylistically. You misspelled disappoint…and used a verb as a noun. And your jokes are crude and unfunny. I don’t want to read the phrase “turd in the punch bowl” while I am drinking coffee.
And comic sans. Come on. What is up with that. comic sans.
arturogalletti
July 19, 2010
lurker,
Sorry about your coffee. I wrote this piece for my blog where I get a little more sophomoric. The comic sans is an homage to Dan Gilbert. I’ll get you a refund right away :-)
Eliot
July 20, 2010
sd,
I was thinking in the terms that JJ is at least an above average to average player and will get them more wins for the money, but if they do lose Horford due to this deal(which is pretty cloudy with the possible lockout), I would agree. However, the fact that the Grizzlies let a much more cost efficient player who plays the same position as the guy they gave a huge contract get away, in addition to basically giving away their first round pick certainly does not work in their favor. Suffice to say, both contracts are godawful and the fact that there is an argument over how bad they are further backs up that point.
some dude
July 20, 2010
Definitely agree. The Ronnie Brewer thing is really confusing to me. I can’t figure out why they would not give him a QO and then replace him with a worse, but more expensive player.
And it’s not even a WoW issue, I’m pretty sure even fans and the like that don’t use any advanced metrics saw this one as odd.
Tom Mandel
July 21, 2010
Charlotte *did* sign Livingston — give ’em their upgrade; they earned it!
On the other hand, your comment on the Wizards — “The wiz had picks 1,30 & 35 and came out with a PG & 2 SF” — isn’t close to accurate. They came out with a Point Guard, a 4-5 (Seraphin), a 3-4 (Booker), and a Center (N’Diaye).
Cavalier judgments ala “Wall was a bad pick for them” are a bit hard to take from someone who doesn’t know what actually took place. I imagine you understand that, right?
Trevor Booker’s ’08-09 WS40, btw, was better than any PF drafted that year not named dejuan blair or blake griffin. That ought to make him look a little better to you?
Tom Mandel
July 22, 2010
Above SA says of the Wizards: “there was no effort to get David Lee from New York in a sign and trade. Or to grab Childress.”
Actually, the Wizards tried to get Childress. Grunfield has a long history w/ Josh (his son played with him in college) and would have picked him in the ’04 draft had he not traded his pick to Dallas in the deal for Antawn Jamison.
As to a sign and trade to get Lee, we’ll never know whether in fact they *did* try for that. You have to ask yourself what the Wizards have that would have worked in such a trade! Nothing I can think of.
some dude
July 22, 2010
Lakers get Barnes. Miami and LAL with strong off-seasons so far.