Okay, time for another comment on Carmelo (sorry if this is getting redundant).
A few days ago – at Huffington Post — I noted that Melo was not nearly as productive as his scoring suggests (quoting Tom Haberstroh of ESPN.com along the way). And I elaborated on this observation in this forum. Furthermore, Andres Alvarez has been commenting on possible trade scenarios for the Nuggets while Carl Bialik of the Wall Street Journal has looked at a variety of statistical measures and reached the same conclusion: There will be life in Denver after Carmelo.
Despite all these voices essentially making the same point, George Karl – the head coach of the Nuggets – still wants Carmelo to sign the extension and stay. And Andrew Feinstein – of Denver Stiff (a very good blog dedicated to the Denver Nuggets) – has written an open letter to Melo where Feinstein essentially begs Anthony to stay.
The fans of Carmelo appear to fear a repeat of the “LeBron scenario”. Essentially, a star player strings a franchise along until he finally leaves his team. This departure ultimately leaves a team much worse off.
For the Cavaliers, this scenario clearly played out. LeBron produced 27.2 wins – while averaging 29.2 points per game — for the Cavaliers last season. This mark led all NBA players. Such production would have been difficult to replace in a trade. So even if Cleveland knew of LeBron’s intentions and traded him last season, the Cavaliers would have probably been worse off.
Will this same scenario play out in Denver? Carmelo Anthony scored 28.2 points per game for the Nuggets. But his overall production (again, as noted at Huffington Post) was far less than LeBron. This means that the Nuggets have actually been given a tremendous opportunity. Other NBA teams think Carmelo is a very productive player. After all – as often noted in this forum – scoring dominates player evaluations in the NBA. But since Melo really isn’t as productive as his scoring suggest, he can be traded to a team for players who actually are quite productive. In other words, Denver can actually use Melo to get better.
Remember, this is essentially what the team did when it traded away Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups (a move that clearly worked for Denver and clearly did not work for Detroit). If the Nuggets follow this blueprint, Denver can actually build a team that can contend in the West.
So here is my basic message for fans of the Nuggets. Don’t look with dismay on the possibility that Melo might depart. No, you should be hoping he doesn’t sign that extension. If he does, Denver is going to once again commit substantial payroll cap space to a player who is really not that productive. And building a championship team in Denver will just be harder.
– DJ
P.S. By the way, the next post will not mention Carmelo Anthony. We have two submissions — examining the Pacers and Rockets — that will appear very soon.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Tommy_Grand
August 20, 2010
If I were a Denver fan, I’d vote to keep Carmelo – even though he will be overpaid and overhyped. Of course, as the Professor writes, Dever might be able to get great value for him in a trade. That would optimal. But we have no idea what Dever might get in return. In the absence of a trade offer to consider, I’d prefer keeping a good, albeit overpaid, SF.
nerdnumbers
August 20, 2010
Tommy,
No!! The cap is 58 million. Melo would get a contract of around 22 Million a year. That’s over 1/3 our cap space. Also with the lockout, it is possible the cap drops but Melo’s contract stays in place. Essentially he and Harrinton (6 Million a year the next 4 years) have the ability to hold 1/2 our cap space and return very little! Barring a trade for Rasheed Lewis, Arenas or Vince Carter I’d welcome almost any offer.
Hoopshype is claiming Chicago with Deng and Noah wouldn’t be enough for Denver. If that’s true the entire Denver front office would have to be sacked.
Xavier Q
August 20, 2010
TommyG,
The issue isn’t that Carmelo is good but overpaid. It’s that he’s not good. He’s a volume shooter who’s below average in everything but points per game. But because he scores so much people think he’s good. Trade him, and get productive pieces in return. Even if they get an average SF back in return, whatever else they get is bonus.
reservoirgod
August 20, 2010
I agree w/ Tommy G. Carmelo is good – he produces like an average SF but isn’t paid like one. I don’t think Denver will get anything back in a trade that will make them a title contender so they might as well keep Melo. I’d rather watch a team w/ an all-star that makes a 1st rd playoff exit than a team w/out an all-star that makes a 1st rd playoff exit.
Mike
August 20, 2010
RG,
The whole point of the post is that Carmelo has perceived value that can be exploited in a trade scenario. Even if they just get expiring contracts and an average SF (probably worst case), I see that as a better alternative than signing Melo to the extension, which will substantially tie up their ability to make any more moves to improve the team. At least with expirings and an average SF, they will fill Melo’s production and have cap space the following year to pursue a productive free agent to shore up another position.
bags fly free
August 20, 2010
nerdnumbers, i’d love noah/deng for melo scenario. if i was denver id try to trade for a young good center like brooke lopez/noah/marc gasol and go from there. seriously they have 2 awesome PGs in bullips and lawson, time to get quality front court
Evan
August 20, 2010
Carmelo Anthony is a case study for why Tyler Cowen knows nothing about basketball.
Italian Stallion
August 20, 2010
I agree with the premise, but think you guys are overstating the case against Melo.
Based on the last stats I looked at, Melo is slightly better than the average “starting SF” at rebounding, assists, and steals. His efficiency was average this year, but it has been above average several times in the past. That includes when AI was on the team and picked up a lot of scoring burden, which freed him up a bit.
He turns the ball over more than average, but that’s because his usage is so high.
So basically he gets little or no credit for all of his scoring because of his average efficiency but he gets the full punishment for the higher turnovers that accompany higher usage.
By definition that means if he lowered his usage his turnovers would fall and he’d rate as a better player even if he didn’t increase his efficiency. If he increased his efficiency he’d rate even better than that.
IMO Melo is a vary talented player that doesn’t play the game intelligently. However, I think the innate intelligence is there.
reservoirgod
August 20, 2010
Mike,
I got the pt of the post and that’s why I made my comment. I haven’t read of any rumored trades for Melo that include an all-star coming back or a player that will improve the Nuggets enough to avoid a 1st rd playoff exit. They can make a 1st rd exit w/ Melo (who’s a perennial all-star). They’re not signing any big name free agents so cap space doesn’t matter. It sucks but Nuggets fans should realize the team is stuck in a similar position to ATL. That’s why I think they should hope Melo signs the contract & appreciate the fact that at least he performs better in the playoffs than Joe Johnson.
Alvy
August 20, 2010
Although I don’t recall Melo’s boxscore stats in game one of the 2009 WCF against the Lakers, I remember thinking all the hype was coming to fruition (I just checked his stats, he shot .700 % with 39 pts). So I would agree that Melo is certainly a more capable player (or at least to have such games), but he’s yet to put a great season together.
I’m actually very intrigued as to what Denver does, because while Dre suggested good trades, they all seemed far-fetched, regardless of wp/48 acknowledgment.
The more and more I think about the recent events in the NBA (Miami Heat, Chris Paul, etc.) the more I’m inclined to believe that Kevin Garnett is by far the most important basketball figure this past decade (not iconic, but as some history lesson).
nerdnumbers
August 20, 2010
Alvy,
Thanks for reading. I agree at this point I’m dreaming and most of the teams with things I want neither Denver will approach or will let them go.
As for using the Olympics/WCF to prove Melo is good (I’ve said this over at NYK Mistakes):
“Flip a coin a hundred times. Now I may tell you ‘Hey it’s an average coin there were 51 heads and 49 tails’. You may reply ‘but look there’s a streak of five heads right there! I think it’s rigged’ The truth is this is expected to happen. Similarly pointing at short stints in Melo’s career to prove he is “better” than his average may not be the right thinking.”
reservoirgod
August 21, 2010
Great pt, Alvy! I’ll take it 1 step further & say KG could be the most important player in the NBA for the next 2 yrs. I believe his play determines the next 2 titles. The only thing keeping MIA from the Finals is KG & the only hope BOS has of beating LAL is KG being productive against Gasol. The 2010 Finals were huge for his legacy & it will unfortunately be stained w/ him losing jump balls to Derek Fisher & getting killed by Gasol on the boards. 2011 is his chance for redemption.
Tommy_Grand
August 21, 2010
I buy the central premise of WP and I agree that the best option is trading CA for 2-3 good, productive players. But even given his max salary and relative inefficiency, I don’t think it’s quite an addition-by-subtraction-type situation. Denvah needs to get at least 2 very solid players to make a good trade.
fricktho
August 21, 2010
I’m a little mixed on Melo. I’m sure he’s overrated, but WoW seems to be treating him like an average player that only scores because he shoots. Like saying anyone could score 29 ppg if they took the same amount of shots type argument. Denver was one of the highest scoring teams in the league, and Anthony was their leading scorer. That has to say something. If you replaced Melo with say Tayshaun Prince what is the effect? Win produced says the Nuggets would actually be better, but I find that hard to believe because someone has to be willing and able to take all those shots and score all those points that Anthony did. Shot creation.
jbrett
August 23, 2010
A question, for advocates on either side of the ‘shot creation’ argument: What would constitute compelling evidence that it does not exist? Pro or con, tell us what you need to see or hear. I, for one, am an easy sell; I do not believe, for example, that without Melo, Denver would have had 15 or 20 more shot-clock violations per game. I am confident to the point of certainty that someone would have taken a shot on virtually all of those possessions–but I can’t see my way through to a clear hypothesis to test. So everybody help me out, and let’s settle this one for good.
nerdnumbers
August 23, 2010
Jbrett,
I disagree. I can see it now, the clock is winding down and Chauncey has the ball. What are his options? Some crazy analyst claims he and Nene are two of the top scorers in their respective positions (http://nerdnumbers.wordpress.com/2010/07/23/thursday-morning-musing-2010s-top-role-players/) but he knows better. He needs to pass to Melo! Sadly Melo has been traded! With no options left he hands the ball over to the ref as the shoot clock buzzer sounds. “IF ONLY WE HAD A HIGH VOLUME SHOOTER” he screams!
some dude
August 23, 2010
Melo’s team last year scored roughly 114 per game when he was in, which is quite high. When he was out, it was 110.
Their offensive rebound % was also much higher. 30% vs 27%. Part of this is due to Melo’s high ORB%, but I would imagine some if because of the shots he takes which creates easy offensive rebounding opportunities.
Then Denver takes 3 more FTs when he’s in and commits 3 less TOs. I guess this suggests his ball handling is good (same TO rate as Lebron).
So basically, when Melo is in the game, Denver gets more FTs, more ORebounds and less TOs. Two of those could easily be bi-products of Melo’s volume shooting.
Then again, could be flukey.
fricktho
August 24, 2010
when i made the comment on shot creation i thought about the fact that other players are obviously going to be taking those shots. i think denver’s offense would slow down a bit and they wouldn’t score as many points. that doesn’t make them a worse basketball team, necessarily, in fact it could make them better. i guess my issue is whether or not those shots would be of the same quality. and yes i also know that melo isn’t the most efficient scorer, but he is willing and able to get his shot off. would other players forced to take those shots be able to do that? at some point someone has to create an open look. you can’t take every shot with a hand in your face and expect good results.
it could mean more efficient scorers are getting more shots. which is good. but would those same players be as efficient without melo? thats where i’m at. melo, regardless of his inefficiency, is a focal point of defenses. would him not being there increase the defensive pressure on the other players, thus making them less efficient?
jbrett
August 24, 2010
I’m not kidding when I say I don’t know how to frame this discussion. Maybe someone with better access to numbers can look at possible factors. For example, what happens to Denver’s FG% when Melo is out? Does more shots mean more missed shots mean more ORB? These are the kind of questions I wish I had better answers for.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems to me the shot creation theory is in no small part about synergy, or maybe I should say a holistic view of the team on the court–the “can’t beat anyone with 5 Marcus Camby’s” approach. You probably can’t, and you do need balance–but how does being a medium-efficient shot-chucker bring balance?
I won’t ask Melo fans this question–fans are by definition not objective–but I’ll ask Denver fans, who just want to win: Would you take Gerald Wallace straight-up for Melo? If your answer is no, you should take your keyboards and go home. The funny thing is, you could get Wallace and a bag full of draft picks and cash–except Melo’s too high-profile to play in Charlotte, and he knows he can get max money in lots of towns. One of those towns is going to see their title hopes take on water, fast. It isn’t any worse than hitching your wagon to Joe Johnson, or Rudy Gay–but, sadly, it isn’t much better, either.