Ben Gulker is a Program Director for a statewide AmeriCorps program in his home state of Michigan, where he was born and raised. He’s a lifelong Pistons fan that grew up during the Bad Boy era, suffered through the “Teal” era, and spends his current fan time reading up on top 10 draft picks, thanks to the recent demise of his beloved team. If you ever want to talk Pistons, you can find him among other Piston die-hards over at Detroit Bad Boys.
Late on the night of August 24th, Rajon Rondo withdrew his name from consideration for a roster spot on Team USA. Had he not withdrawn, it appears that he would have been cut from the team after a receiving a Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision on August 22nd.
His departure leaves Team USA with the following guard rotation, which includes each player’s WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] and Wins Produced from the 2009-2010 NBA season:
Starters
- Derrick Rose: 5.9 Wins Produced, 0.099 WP48
- Chauncey Billups: 10.1 Wins Produced, 0.194 WP48
Reserves
- Russell Westbrook: 8.8 Wins Produced, 0.150 WP48
- Stephen Curry: 8.8 Wins Produced, 0.146 WP48
- Eric Gordon: 1.9 Wins Produced, 0.040 WP48
Rajon Rondo produced 17.2 Wins Produced with a 0.278 WP48. So through the lens of Wins Produced, Rajon Rondo was clearly the most productive player in this group, and frankly, it wasn’t close. Yet, Coach Mike Krzyzewski – widely regarded as one of the greatest NCAA men’s basketball coaches of all time – had this to say about Rondo,
“It’s not so much what Rajon has to show, it’s what our team needs. We’ve found a good lineup, and the international game is so different from the NBA game, you can ask any of these guys […] Part of it is to make sure that we try not to have two nonshooters out on the court, and there’s the physicality, too.”
In sum, Rondo doesn’t fit a team need relative to the international game, and he’s not a good enough shooter.
No disrespect to Coach K. (for the record, I’m a huge Coach K. fan), I couldn’t disagree more. While it certainly is true that Rondo is not know for his jump shooting prowess, Rondo would be an excellent fit, given the rest of the roster.
When we turn to the complete roster for Team USA, we see something all too familiar – the overwhelming majority of players that have been selected take a lot of shots, and as a result, these players score a lot of points. The following table indicates the number of field goal attempts and points per 48 minutes for each member of Team USA in 2009-2010:
Coach K. indicated that the international game is different from the NBA, and that may very well be true. I’ve never been involved in international basketball other than as a casual observer, so I have to plead ignorance. But, international basketball is still basketball. It stands to reason that the things that lead to wins in the NBA – avoiding turnovers, grabbing rebounds, using possessions efficiently, etc. – should translate from the NBA to the international game. Perhaps the strategies and tactics that would produce these outcomes would vary based on different rules or different styles of play, but even if they do, there’s still only one basketball, and there is a finite number of possessions in any given basketball game.
The implications of those facts for Team USA seem almost too obvious: several players won’t get to take as many shots as they’re accustomed to, and as a result won’t score as many points. Given that several of these players rely heavily on scoring to contribute, they will either have to step up their production in other facets of the game or be relatively unproductive.
By contrast, Rajon Rondo is a remarkably productive player precisely because he does much more than score. Thanks to basketball-reference.com, we can easily compare Rondo to the players who will likely log minutes at point guard for Team USA. Although Rondo did score the fewest points per game of these four players, he led the quartet in assists and steals and was second in rebounding. And in spite of his reputation for being a poor jump shooter, his true shooting percentage is second only to Billups.
In November of last year, Rondo signed a five-year extension with the Celtics worth at least $55 million. At the time, the following observation was made by Dave Berri:
“If Rondo averaged about 15 points per game – which he could if he simply took about three more shots per game (or less than one per quarter) – then Rondo’s pay would match what he should get according to the logic of the NBA’s free agent market […]Rondo will continue to produce more than he is paid. Because he does not rely on scoring to produce wins, the NBA player market will continue to undervalue Rondo’s services.”
Given the surplus of scorers on Team USA, it would seem that a highly productive, non-scoring point guard – who has demonstrated his ability to facilitate an offense with the Big Three in Boston for several years – would be the perfect fit for this team. Unfortunately for Rondo – and in my opinion for Team USA as well – scoring has once again dominated player evaluation, and as a result, Rondo will be watching from the sidelines with the rest of us.
– Ben Gulker
Wages of Wins Journal 
Tommy_Grand
August 27, 2010
It is pretty hard for me to imagine a style of basketball in which Eric Gordon helps your team win more than Rondo. But I’m sure Coach K has his reasons.
nerdnumbers
August 27, 2010
Ben,
Always love your stuff! What else that is interesting is this. The coaches have years of data on all of these players. They certainly have a large amount of film they can review. However, it is apparently the play of a very short span of time on which they make their judgement. I don’t know how true it was but I remember in the movie “Miracle” that Herb Brooks basically ignored tryouts and said “I’ve watched and scouted these players and this is my team.” Shame they didn’t do that for Rondo.
Chicago Tim
August 27, 2010
Technically, Rondo was not cut. He withdrew. And he was never enthusiastic about joining the team, nor were the Celtics enthusiastic about it.
Yes, Coach K sat him after he had a bad game against Lithuania and Rondo perceived himself as on the bubble, but it’s quite possible that if Rondo had insisted on staying someone else would have been cut. By offering to withdraw, Rondo may have saved Coach K from a difficult decision, and also from the difficult position of dealing with Rondo’s ego when deciding who to play.
None of the other guards, not even veteran Chauncy Billups, seems to have a problem with sitting or not starting. Maybe Rondo did. After all, if he wasn’t going to play a starring role, maybe he wondered why he was there at all, and whether his first instinct to decline the invitation was correct. So it is possible that he took the opportunity to withdraw, and that Coach K accepted it, without anyone deciding that Rondo was going to be cut.
On the other hand, its true that Coach K did not beg and plead for Rondo to remain, and did not guarantee him a starring role. Maybe he should have done so based on Rondo’s performance during the regular season and playoffs. I’m not dismissing your premise, I’m just wondering if Rondo really would have been cut if he didn’t withdraw.
sportsfanatic613
August 27, 2010
Rando’s leaving the team seems similar to Chauncey Billups opting out of the 2008 Olympic team as he too felt that he would be cut due to the team already consisting of Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Jason Kidd.
The 2010 team is a bit small and lacking players to rebound thus Rando’s strength would be necessary. If the team had kept the players based upon wins produced, Rose, Gay and Gordon would not be there and in their places would be Rando, Gerald Wallace and David Lee (and even Tyreke Evans). Ironically, all these players are much better rebounders than the aforementioned 3 players. We can all hope that Coach K did not make a mistake by leaving the team without enough rebounders.
Alvy
August 27, 2010
Ben Gulker,
Nice article, and I too agree that NBA and international basketball are still essentially the same. However, regardless of Rondo’s departure (be it his decision or that of team U.S.A.) I believe Mike Krzyzewski really is trying to assemble a more perfect team for this tournament.
Also, I might be the only one who agrees, but I don’t see the point of validating a players’ spot on an international roster based on their NBA WP/48. With so few games, and definitive roles, it is very plausible for an average NBA player to perform in a stellar fashion under FIBA (Bosh, and Melo for instance). Being reasonable, I would still prefer LeBron James over any forward given the pretense though, so please don’t be silly.
Lastly, Rajon Rondo is a weird dude. He’s blatantly indifferent or aloof about basketball history (claims to have never seen Michael Jordan play, nor the NBA all together, finding it “boring”), yet is convinced he’s the best player in the NBA (partially true). In short, I’m not sure he cares if he is on team USA if he isn’t starting.
robbieomalley
August 27, 2010
Anyone see Kevin Loves 12 rebounds in 12 minutes against Greece? Why don’t they play him more?
brgulker
August 27, 2010
Thanks for the constructive feedback, all.
Alvy,
I tried to qualify it the best I could, and I also tried to offer some non-Wins Produced thoughts (“good fit,” e.g.). It’s also just one lens through which to view the situation, not the only one. I agree with several of the points you raised. There’s a lot about this scenario we don’t know.
Chicago Tim,
Those are all fair points. I don’t know the internal dynamics of the situation, and I certainly don’t know the internal dialog of Rondo, Coach K., et all :) I’m going strictly off of what they’re telling the press, and I’m aware of those limitations!
nerdnumbers,
Thanks for the complement :) The sample size point is a good one. It’s one I had in a draft but decided to cut due to length. Rondo obviously had some bad games. Gordon has apparently been very “consistent” in practice.
Chicago Tim
August 27, 2010
robbieomalley
I agree that the lack of playing time (love?) for Love is puzzling. At least Rondo got some time to prove himself, and his performance was not stellar. Love got little time but played wonderfully during those few minutes. Maybe they will reconsider and make him a starter — but I wouldn’t count on it.
Sam Cohen
August 27, 2010
“It stands to reason that the things that lead to wins in the NBA – avoiding turnovers, grabbing rebounds, using possessions efficiently, etc. – should translate from the NBA to the international game.”
I can’t think of any reason that this statement would not be true, but is it possible that the exact weights given to each factor are different in FIBA basketball? Are Euroleague statistics easily available? And if so, have any of our resident excel champions ever looked into running the Wins Produced regression on the Euroleauge box score statistics?
Might be interesting. And if we had those numbers (and this is starting to go off on more of a tangent), couldn’t we then start looking into whether Euroleague WP correlates to NBA WP for players that make the jump (ala college to NBA)?
ilevy
August 27, 2010
Well said Mr. Cohen. I scrolled to the bottom of this story intending to ask the same question, and found it already stated very eloquently.
Italian Stallion
August 27, 2010
I’m still in shock over this move. I thought he was the 2nd best player on the team after Durant.
some dude
August 27, 2010
Boston Celtics lost the NBA finals because Rondo couldn’t shoot and you question why he’s not on the team.
Let me repeat this again since some don’t pick up on it. WP48 measures your production, it does not measure why you’re producing.
The international game is quite different. You can’t just say “basketball is basketball.” Why do some NCAA players have awesome WP48 numbers and bomb in the NBA and visa-versa?
The international game allows more aggressive D (which Rondo could help with, but it hurts his offense as well), lots of quick ball movement (rondo has great vision, but is too patient), a requires us to attack the basket with brute force and athleticism, which someone like Rose and Westbrook are much better at.
Then the whole jump shot issue.
Rose WP48 numbers are misleading. His 2nd half numbers are far better as he got over his injury. Rondo also rebounded a lot in Boston because of some of his teammates deficiencies. With Love, Chandler, Odom this should not be an issue for Team USA, so Rondo’s rebounding prowess is minimized.
The production does not always translate over. NBA basketball is not college basketball is not streetball is not FIBA.
evanz
August 27, 2010
There are some important differences in FIBA basketball. The 3-point line is 20″ closer, which obviously makes it even easier for guys like Curry and Gordon to hit 3-point shots. The defensive rules are also more lax, so guys get pounded in the paint, which makes it advantageous to have sharp shooters on the perimeter – again, like Curry or Gordon. Rondo is a great guard, but he is not a great shooter, and he won’t be as effective driving to the basket in FIBA play as in the NBA, because of the rules.
todd2
August 27, 2010
If anything he’s better suited to the international game. He can defend, take care of the ball and play 94 feet. You can make a case for the aging Celtics holding him back. Billups can’t run/defend and Gordon is subpar as well in those areas. Curry isn’t a stopper either. Good gracious, Westbrook and Rondo in the same back court? They’d run circles around the opposition. I like K as well. There’s got to be more to the story. Unless K is trying to assemble a team of scorers…..hmmmmm.
todd2
August 27, 2010
This also reminds me of a story I read recently about a 1978 college All Star team: Joe Hall sat Larry, Magic and Sidney and played his UK guys, whose butts were routinely kicked during practices.
Cal
August 27, 2010
“Boston Celtics lost the NBA finals because Rondo couldn’t shoot and you question why he’s not on the team.”
Er, no. They lost because the Lakers shot 21 free throws in the last quarter.
reservoirgod
August 27, 2010
Some Dude:
I think my latest article illustrates your point (click the link for my name). In the scrimmages & exhibition games for Team USA, Rondo’s NBA production did not translate to the same level of productivity. Westbrook, Gordon & Rose were all more productive – by a decent margin. Curry & Billups? Not so much.
reservoirgod
August 27, 2010
sportsfanatic613:
I agree that it appears a conscious decision was made to choose shooters over rebounders & defenders. Danny Granger was chosen over Jeff Green (Green was the better rebounder & defender) and it appeared Curry was chosen over Rondo against Spain. I discuss this in my latest post (w/ stats to support the argument).
some dude
August 27, 2010
Cal, that doesn’t explain the other 15 quarters that led to them losing. The fact of the matter is Rondo’s FT shooting stopped him from penetrating and his lack of jump shooting allowed Kobe to play a lot of help defense and disrupt boston’s flow. Boston’s offensive efficiency plummeted and Rondo runs the offense and his numbers all dipped from an efficiency standpoint.
Todd2 – i disagree. I think rondo is the opposite of what you want in FIBA. If you’re a guard that can’t shoot at all, you’re not going to do that well. It’s not as easy to “run circles” around players in FIBA because FIBA is based on ball movement more than man movement and the physicality is raised. Rose and Westbrook can be successful because when they attack the rim they attack it full force with the intention of dunking whereas Rondo lays it up (more finesse).
As I also mentioned, Rondo is a patient passer, which is not what you want in FIBA. in FIBA you want guys who pass the ball quickly. It’s why Billups isn’t best suited for this game, but at least he can shoot. Furthermore, perimeter defense isn’t as important because of the ball movement. You’re not on ball handlers as much. This is why Rubio doesn’t see as much time as he’d like.
reservoirgod
August 27, 2010
Tommy Grand:
Gordon actually outplayed Rondo in the scrimmages & exhibitions by a wide margin – .299 WP40 for Gordon vs. .143 WP40 for Rondo. If I were Coach K and I chose to base my evaluation on how well players executed the system I want to run, then I wouldn’t base my personnel decisions on how players performed when they weren’t in my system.
Cal
August 27, 2010
some dude, I don’t think you watch the Celtics very much, because every team in the league plays off Rondo. There’s been nobody guarding him since college. Saying that the Celtics lost because Rondo can’t shoot is like saying they lost because they weren’t tall enough. It’s the same as saying that they were doomed to lose from the start, which is stupid because…
” Cal, that doesn’t explain the other 15 quarters that led to them losing. ”
The Celtics were winning going into the fourth quarter. duh. Then the Lakers shot 21 free throws and had a few calls go their way.
some dude
August 28, 2010
Cal, that is just not true. And yes, I watch them quite enough. And when teams employed the “back off” strategy, they generally did it with a small and not someone as big as Kobe.
I said it before but the Lakers were one of the few teams that could properly execute the “back off” defense from Rondo because of Kobe’s length, and the Lakers size inside. But in international play, the 3 point line is shorter and the entire offense is more compact, so this artificially acts as like the Lakers’ uniqueness on defense to combat Rondo.
Have you actually watched Rondo in the scrimmages? Rose, Westbrook, and Gordon have thoroughly outplayed Rondo. Really, you could probably only make a case for Billups being outplayed by him, but Billups is needed for locker room leadership at least and USA definitely needs Curry’s shooting.
FIBA PGs don’t play the same way as they do in the NBA.
You can accurately say Celtics lost because Rondo couldn’t shoot. Your comparison to height is fallible because Rondo’s jump shooting should have improved by now. There’s absolutely no excuse at all for his porous FT and mid range game. KGs knees won’t allow him to get more rebounds, Perkins wrist wouldn’t allow him to shoot well, Ray’s tiredness guarding Kobe sapped him…but Rondo COULD shoot better. From all accounts, he simply didn’t bother to work on it the past 2 off-seasons at all. That’s on him and it’s why the Celtics lost 4 of the 7 games.
And don’t bring up the FT BS. Celtics would have never been in the lead if they weren’t gifted FTs during the 1st half or if game 2 wasn’t officiated so poorly in their favor. In the end, it evened out. They lost because of things they could control – Rondo’s shooting.
Don’t get me wrong, he’s a great player. But his shooting cost them in 2010 and nearly cost them in ’08, but luckily for them he got benched in games 2-3-4-5 with the games on the line and Boston won 2 of those.
Cal
August 28, 2010
I haven’t watched Rondo in the scrimmages, but I wasn’t even talking about them. Honestly, I couldn’t care less about Team USA. I’m not American.
It’s evident that at this point Rondo is unable to shoot and probably never will be able to shoot. My comparison to height while not ‘fallible’ probably wasn’t the best, one to, say, muscle mass would have been better. KG has shown in the past he can rebound and that his rebound ability varies, as does Ray Allen’s shooting. Those would be much better explanations. Rondo can’t shoot, I don’t know why and neither do you. For all we know there could be something wrong with his fingers. Who cares? What’s important is he can’t do it. You said that Ray Allen was too tired (I don’t believe this but let’s go with for now) saying the Celtics lost because Rondo couldn’t shoot is the same as saying the Celtics lost because Ray Allen is relatively unfit.
“And don’t bring up the FT BS. Celtics would have never been in the lead if they weren’t gifted FTs during the 1st half or if game 2 wasn’t officiated so poorly in their favor. In the end, it evened out. They lost because of things they could control – Rondo’s shooting.”
I’ll give you the free throw BS all night, because it’s true.The Celtics shot, what, like 6 or 7 free throws in the first half can’t be more than 10. yeah, total gifts. I bet they were paying the refs off.
Any strategy that the teams employed prior to the last the quarter can’t have been the ‘reason’ they won in meaningful sense. Because the teams were only separated by two points with twelve minutes left. Thus, it’s not the reason they won or loss, it’s the reason they hadn’t won up until that point. What happened after that point is what explains the win or loss and the Lakers shooting 21 free throws is what happened. That Rondo couldn’t shoot isn’t. Rondo couldn’t shoot in games 2,4 or 5. either, but the Celtics won those just fine.
Not that it’s really important (cause we’re talking about 2010) but in the games you listed for 2008… Rondo wasn’t benched for any important period in game 2, if i remember correctly, he played nearly the entire game and Celtics won (even when he couldn’t shoot). In games 3,4 and 5 he was benched significantly ( I wouldn’t be surprised if he played less than 15 minutes in those games). Those were the Celtics worst games. In games 1,2 and 6 Rondo spent significant time on the court and those were the Celtics best games. Obviously, correlation doesn’t establish causation. But saying that his shooting nearly cost them those games is a lie. Even when he’s on the court he barely shoots.
Anyway, it’s obvious you’re a Lakers fan. So I doubt I’ll convince you of the free throw thing (but just to be clear, you do believe that refs are biased towards home teams and star players in the NBA right? I’m sure if game 7 had been in Boston the calls would have all gone the Celtics way). Just realise that teams play off Rondo constantly and it doesn’t stop the Celtics winning, nor did it stop him winning games in college. There’s actually a bit of a silver lining to people playing off Rondo-there’s never a body on him for rebounds, I haven’t don’t any analysis of it, but just from watching that seems to be how he racks up so many for a point guard (along with his long arms, obviously). He’d still be better player if he could shoot, but other players would be better if they were taller, faster and stronger. I think we can regard Rondo’s poor shooting as fixed.
Actually, I don’t want this to drag on, so I’ll stop commenting here. Your beliefs seem pretty ingrained, so I doubt I’ve convinced you of my points. I also doubt you going to offer any meaningful evidence for the counterarguments you drag out in reply to this (meaningful in the sense that it will change my mind). So see you later.
Also, to all the contributers, I love this blog and a few others in the network. Keep up the good work!
some dude
August 28, 2010
Cal,
1. Rondo can shoot better. Just look at Rose. He improved quite a bit in his shooting. Rondo, on the other hand, seems to be getting worse according to the data. It’s not excusable for a point guard. And he shot like 25% from the FT line in the playoffs. Your argument that he “can’t” shoot better is a load of bunk. We see players time and again come in and improve on all areas of the game while they are young. He has no excuse, period.
As to Ray Allen, he’s perfectly fit, he’s just old (in basketball terms). this is something he cannot prevent.
2. To the FT thing. I can show you 6 FT gifts late in the 2nd quarter than the Celtics used to create their initial lead. I can guarantee you that you won’t find 6 FTs that the Lakers had that were unwarrented in the 4th. Someone posted an examination of that 4th quarter and only about 4 FTs were questionable. and they still missed calls. Boston was tired, stopped attacking, started hacking, and that was that.
Your mention of the other games is a mistake. I can just as easily cite game 2’s officiating which unfairly took Kobe completely out of the game. Funny enough, the only reason Rondo went off that game (and it only happened in the 4th) was because Kobe picked up his 5th and defended him very weak and it cost LA the game.
But really, game 4 is the great mention. You are aware that Boston won that game after putting Rondo on the bench, right? They won with Nate Robinson manning the point. it was the “Shrek & Donkey” show, as they coined it.
Like I said, Rondo is a good player, so I’m not saying that they lost because he sucks. But the Lakers exploited his inability to shoot and that was a strategic move that ended up being the difference in the series. The Lakers changed their D to exploit it; it was not a byproduct of their normal system. That’s why it matters.
“Anyway, it’s obvious you’re a Lakers fan. So I doubt I’ll convince you of the free throw thing (but just to be clear, you do believe that refs are biased towards home teams and star players in the NBA right? I’m sure if game 7 had been in Boston the calls would have all gone the Celtics way). Just realise that teams play off Rondo constantly and it doesn’t stop the Celtics winning, nor did it stop him winning games in college. There’s actually a bit of a silver lining to people playing off Rondo-there’s never a body on him for rebounds, I haven’t don’t any analysis of it, but just from watching that seems to be how he racks up so many for a point guard (along with his long arms, obviously). He’d still be better player if he could shoot, but other players would be better if they were taller, faster and stronger. I think we can regard Rondo’s poor shooting as fixed.”
Yes, I am a Lakers fan but you won’t find many more unbiased than I. I think Rondo is one of the 5 best PGs in the NBA, fwiw. As I said, the Lakers were one of the few teams capable of truly employing a tactic to exploit his weakness. Playing off him isn’t enough. You need the personnel to do it right (a big and agile guard with 2 capable bigs).
You won’t convince me of the FT thing, not because I’m a Laker fan, but because most of the series was horribly called for both teams. Lakers probably win game 2 without some god awful calls and the complexion of the series is vastly different. Game 7’s 4th was pretty decent and no worse than the 2nd in favor of the other team. Fans often like to cite FTs as some kind of evidence, but I can point to you ever deserving foul called and ones that weren’t. Every now and then you’ll come across a game where the refs screw up and it probably changed the outcome, but over the grand scheme of things the officiating is evened out over time. Generally speaking, FT claims are only done by those not willing to accept reality.
My general rule with regards to FTs is you get 3 games a year to complain about. No more.
Rondo’s a top notch rebounder for a G and some of it is how he’s being played, but long arms, aggressive attitude, and good timing help. But he’s also helped by his frontcourt’s relative weakness in that area (sheed especially).
But the idea that his shooting is fixed is pretty bogus. Most young guards spend their first few seasons improving their shooting%. Rondo JS efg% has dropped over time, which is pretty unheard of for someone who starts out low to begin with. Chris Paul. Wade, D-will, Rose, Lebron all improved their shooting at Rondo’s age. Again, what is Rondo’s excuse where 95% of all perimeter players improve at his age? If you don’t believe me, go look at their JS Efg% through the years. Rondo shot 37.5% according to 82games.com which is lower the 2 years ago and the same as last year. And it’s pitiful.
Oh duh, I forgot the most obvious example. Tony Parker. There’s a kid who came into the league and couldn’t shoot worth a lick. The Lakers, coincidentally enough, beat the Spurs in ’04 simply by making him shoot rather than get in the paint (after game 2). But he worked hard during summer to improve, and he has drastically. You can’t just sag off him anymore.
If TP can do it, so can Rondo. Rondo’s shooting prowess is not set in stone yet.
bagsflyfree
August 28, 2010
some dude, Rondo has really BIG hands, it may not be an excuse but he prolly will never be able to be a great shooter, think of shaq, his palm covers up half the ball and that’s why he cant shoot FT or anything for that matter.
some dude
August 28, 2010
Shaq can’t shoot FTs because of a wrist injury he had as a kid which prevents the wrist from bending right (most people don’t know about this).
It has nothing to do with the size of his hands. Other players have shot just fine with large hands and Rondo’s, while large for his size, it not the biggest hands to come around.
Sports science actually did a take on the big hands thing and Sasha Vujacic still shot 90%+ with modified big hands. FT shooting is strictly muscle memory and mental strength.
arturogalletti
August 28, 2010
sd,
I have to agree with Cal. Partly though. The Celts lost because not having Perk forced into unfavorable defensive matchups against the Lakers who proceeded to get the expected homecourt whistles. Rondo’s poor shooting is part of his package and you kinda have to live with the bad if you want the good.
All,
I’m back from vacation and put up two new posts (click my name if interested).
some dude
August 28, 2010
Arturo, I admit Perkins was a problem, but as I mentioned before some believe they had a better shot winning on the road without him than with because of his offensive problems. I don’t actually agree, but I don’t think he made all that much of a difference. And Boston can’t play the injury card with Drew hobbling around on 1 knee.
And you can’t say that it is “part of his package.” That’s like saying that Amare’s rebounding is “part of his package,” and it’s not one of the main reasons they couldn’t beat the Lakers. Or his and Nash’s porous defense.
The true greats in this league find ways to improve their weaknesses. Durant improved his defense and getting to the paint this past season. Lebron added a 3 point shot and improved his FT shooting over the years. Parker added a jump shot. Gasol got stronger physically.
With Rondo’s physical talent and basketball intelligence. there’s no doubt in my mind that he would be as good as Chris Paul if he could shoot worth a lick. But he’s not, and as I said before, indications seems to be he doesn’t care enough to work on that shot (i’ve heard he doesn’t bother to do it in summer much).
Just like we can blame Nash’s D for his 0 Finals appearances, McCrady for his work ethic, Vince for his mental softness, we can blame Rondo for his inability to shoot. These are things he controls and must take blame for them.
Pointing out weaknesses in one’s game is not unfair, it’s what we’re supposed to do.
arturogalletti
August 29, 2010
sd,
I am not saying it’s unfair, I’m simply saying that hoping he would figure out how to shoot in the middle of the playoffs wasn’t exactly realistic.
Perk was a much bigger deal than Bynum because of his defense. His absence changed every defensive matchup in the game in LA’s favor. When I worked out defensive adjusted WP48 for him his numbers go up to .222 WP48 (from .129). He’s arguably the best defensive player on the best defense in the league so his absence was a game changer. Bynum is a nice to have for LA not a must have like Perk is for Boston.
some dude
August 29, 2010
Arturo, I understand that he wasn’t going to fix it in the middle of the playoffs, but it’s still a glaring inexcusable weakness. If it was fixed in the off-season, things would play out differently. It’s not an age/injury/height thing he can’ control.
As I said, we lay blame on other players for their inadequacies, so Rondo should be no different. His weakness was the most significant one for the team, IMO.
As to Perk, I think you’re off base. For one, his offense was absolutely horrid in the playoffs and Finals. As I said, some analysts believed Boston was better off without him for one game because when he and Rondo were in together, the offense couldn’t score. Furthermore, Boston with Sheed and Boston with Perkins were virtually the same during the course of the Finals in terms of offensive minus defensive efficiency. And Rasheed’s game 7 WP48 was essentially the same as Perkins average for the series.
maybe you weren’t aware, but Perkins wasn’t doing much of anything in the series. He only played 25 minutes per (not counting game 6 in this of course), rebounding just ok most games, turned the ball over a lot, and didn’t really score and had 0 blocks and just 1 steal. Sheed’s man 2 man defense was better than Perkins and when Sheed was in the game, Pierce and KG performed better on offense.
I think Perk is an underrated big man and a really good man 2 man defender. But i think he was somewhat a liability for Boston which is why Sheed didn’t play him as much as he’d usually like to do so.
On to Bynum, Bynum is a much better overall player. The Lakers are a dominant team with a healthy Bynum. They are a +12 with the Gasol-Bynum starting unit. That’s nearly 2.5 times more than any full team’s PD other than Orlando last season (who was 7.5).
Bynum’s defense is vastly underrated. He was just as integral to keeping Rondo out of the paint as Kobe. Re-watch the series and when he was in the game. He shut down the paint. When he came out in game 4, Odom got destroyed by Baby, remember? His inability to play long is why the Lakers struggled so much in game 5. He could only give us 1 good offensive game in the series, but he impacted the defense.
If Bynum and Perkins are 100% healthy, Lakers win that series in 5 games without a doubt in my mind. Bynum would have neutralized Perk, opened up the game even more for Pau and Kobe, and shut down the paint for 30 minutes rather than 15-20. Bynum is L.A.’s 3rd most important player no matter than WP48 says (cuz it says Odom).
arturogalletti
August 29, 2010
sd,
With Rondo, the positives way outweigh the negatives. As a Celtics fan the fact that if he could shoot he would be the best guard ever is pretty darn frustrating though. I can live with >.300 WP48 though.
The problem with Bynum lies in the fact that his lack of health is part of the overall package with him. He seems to be the type of big man (Walton, Yao, Oden) who isn’t built for an 82 game season. So I would argue that I would never expect him to be healthy in the finals.
I agree he did an awesome job on Gasol but Sheed couldn’t stay on the court. The Celts were better off with a Perk, Garnett, Sheed, Baby rotation (in which they matched up physically and could play mismatches with Baby, Sheed and Garnett and body up Artest and Odom when they came low) than what they were left with in game 7.
some dude
August 29, 2010
I think you misread my argument if you think I’m saying Rondo’s negatives outweigh his positives.
I stated I think Rondo he is a top 5 PG in the league right now. I then said it takes a certain type of team to exploit his major weakness. But the fact of the matter is that the Lakers won because they exploited that weakness. It’s simply the truth that the Lakers defense was built around this concept, especially so in game 6 and 7 (watch the tape!).
I agree Bynum’s injuries have been problematic. One of them wasn’t even his body’s fault (Kobe falling into him). It would have happened to any player.
But injuries are part of the game. I’m just saying you can’t pull the “if” thing with Perk because Bynum was hurt too. Look, if it was a 2 week ankle injury or something, sure, but dude tore his ACL/PCL. He’s probably done for the whole year realistically…it’s an 18 month injury to really recover.
To your last point, i think the stats completely and overwhelmingly disagree. How many points per possession did the Lakers score in that game. How can you argue that DEFENSE was the issue in that game. The Lakers OEff was 96.5. That’s 10 points BELOW the Lakers season average, 13 points below their playoff average, and 3 points below the WORST offensive team in the league last season.
To make any claims that Perkins defense was any issue at all in game 7 is flat out incorrect according to any reasonable statistical measure. Boston lost because they couldn’t find ways to score and Perkins wouldn’t have helped that. In fact, Sheed was one of the team’s best offensive players in game 7. And the Lakers neutralized Baby in game 5 and 6 and 7, so I doubt he would have made a difference, regardless.
And Sheed played 36 minutes in game 7. Seems like he stayed on the court just fine to me.
TBall
August 30, 2010
The Celtics lost game 7 because they couldn’t rebound with the Lakers. In his prime, ‘Sheed was never more than a mediocre rebounder and he was one of the worst PF/C rebounders per minute this season. He averaged 1 reb/5.5 minutes this season. 1 reb/5min over his career. Glen Davis is 1/4.5 and Perkins 1/3.7. Perkins playing could have limited the Lakers’ 23 offensive rebounds. The Lakers averaged 12 offensive FGs in the other 6 games in the series.
19 of the Lakers’ 23 2pt FGs came in the paint. Several were the result of second chance opportunities in prime position to lay the ball back in. For each of the games in the 7 game series, the Lakers won when they managed more than 18 2pt FGs and lost when they managed fewer. Limiting these baskets in the paint would have made a difference.
Perkins led the team in offensive rebounds this season. As it frequently seemed the only offense either team could muster was off of the offensive glass, Perkins playing could have made a difference.
The Celtics problem was not that they could not score, their problems was the Lakers finished with more points. In a game where Gasol was the MVP, it is hard to imagine how a player well-regarded as a top NBA post defender could not have made more of an impact against that game MVP in place of a player whose back was about to force his retirement.
jbrett
August 30, 2010
I’m seeing lots of arguments on how Rondo isn’t suited for the style. Was Jason Kidd any better at it? Yes, I realize he was nearly a token starter for the 2008 team–but that team had Chris Paul and Deron Williams, so you can make the case their best was on the bench. Rondo couldn’t fill that role? You know, the role of an actually PRODUCTIVE guard off the bench? Please.
some dude
August 30, 2010
“The Celtics lost game 7 because they couldn’t rebound with the Lakers. In his prime, ‘Sheed was never more than a mediocre rebounder and he was one of the worst PF/C rebounders per minute this season. He averaged 1 reb/5.5 minutes this season. 1 reb/5min over his career. Glen Davis is 1/4.5 and Perkins 1/3.7. Perkins playing could have limited the Lakers’ 23 offensive rebounds. The Lakers averaged 12 offensive FGs in the other 6 games in the series”
please. First off, Boston rebounded just fine in game 6 without him. They a also rebounded just fine in game 2 with him getting heavy minutes and only producing 6 rebounds. They also lost a game where he had 11 rebounds in fewer minutes.
Whatever possible improvement they would have had with rebounds (and Sheed rebounded as well as Perk had been in the series in game 7) would have been negated by his horrible offensive play.
Boston lost because they couldn’t score, period. Lakers scored 82 and still won. Rebounding wasn’t the issue, it was putting the ball in the hoop. Sheed does that better than Perk. The lakers scores 96 points per 100 possessions. Rebounding wasn’t Boston’s issue, scoring was!
“19 of the Lakers’ 23 2pt FGs came in the paint. Several were the result of second chance opportunities in prime position to lay the ball back in. For each of the games in the 7 game series, the Lakers won when they managed more than 18 2pt FGs and lost when they managed fewer. Limiting these baskets in the paint would have made a difference.”
And you just admitted the Lakers did it with Perkins playing, so what’s your point? Might it have been harder? Sure. Would Boston’s offense been even worse with Perk? Probably. Which would have made the bigger difference.
What I do know is Boston lost because of offense, not defense and rebounding. Perkins offense was horrific.
“Perkins led the team in offensive rebounds this season. As it frequently seemed the only offense either team could muster was off of the offensive glass, Perkins playing could have made a difference.”
As would his anemic offensive game, hurting floor spacing, and the Oreb is overblown. Their OReb% in that game as a team was around their season average. So they might have had 1 or 2 more Orebs and probably 1-2 more TOs so uh, evens out. Of course, Sheed did better socring-wise and spacing wise.
“The Celtics problem was not that they could not score, their problems was the Lakers finished with more points. In a game where Gasol was the MVP, it is hard to imagine how a player well-regarded as a top NBA post defender could not have made more of an impact against that game MVP in place of a player whose back was about to force his retirement.”
Perkins barely defended Gasol in the hole series, so why bring it up. The only time it happened for any extended period of time was when Bynum came out a minute into the 3rd in game 4 and Lamar was guarded by KG.
And yes, scoring was the issue. The Lakers were held to 96 points per 100. Boston defended and rebounded well enough to turn the Lakers offense into 3 points worse than the worst offensive team all season.
They lost because they couldn’t score on the Lakers D, plan and simple.
jbrett, Kidd is a better pace guard than Rondo. Again, Rondo is a great passer but he’s a patient passer, whereas Kidd is a quick trigger guard, which helped. That said, Kidd wasn’t that useful but a team with Lebron, Melo, Wade, Kobe, Bosh, Dwight, Deron, and CP3 is not losing even if they stick my butt out there with them.
Furthermore, Kidd is a far better shooter. You know he shot like 40% from 3, right?
WKC
September 5, 2010
I don’t have much to add here, except to say that in addition FIBA and NBA basketball, one additional factor is Duke basketball. I’ve watched Duke for 25 years, and Coach K simply does not use PGs that are not threats from outside. In fact, the offense usually revolves around the PG and the wings shooting early and often. You could argue that Carlos Boozer fell to the second round because he wasn’t used at all like he would’ve been at other schools. Jason Williams, Chris Duhon, and Mike Dunleavy (plus Shane Battier the year before) took all of the shots, many of them from downtown.
Drawsony
December 10, 2010
You need perimeter shooters more than non-scoring point guards in international basketball. If you can get a non-scoring point guard who ALSO has a great jump shot, then that’s even better. For Team USA, Chauncey Billups and Stephen Curry are way more valuable than Rondo because they can shoot from beyond the arc AND they are unselfish enough to pass to their teammates. Rondo is great for the NBA-game, better than Curry or Billups in my opinion, but with Team USA on the international stage, he wouldn’t be as useful.
Faye
June 11, 2011
Whatever, it’s their loss. He’s unbelievable with his ability to facilitate and move without the ball. Rondo has so many intangibles, not to mention that he’s an elite defender, and you have to be very competitive; that’s why I appreciate and respect him for his hustle and will to win. Plus he’s improved heavily on his mid range jumper.
For those idiots saying The Celtics lost game 7 last year because of his shooting is an idiot. I believe 2 things contributed to that loss, one being the loss of Perkins which allowed Gasol to obtain 18 rebounds and the 24 free throws the Lakers were handed in the 4th quarter. Chew on that for a while