While we wait for the Carmelo Anthony trade to be finalized, let’s talk about a trade yesterday that was quite interesting (even if it was of far less importance). On Thursday the 76ers sent Willie Green and Jason Smith to the New Orleans Hornets for Darius Songaila and rookie Craig Brackins. Why is this trade interesting? I suspect this quartet are the least productive players ever to comprise a multi-player trade.
Consider the career productivity of the veterans involved:
Darius Songaila
- 2003-04: 1.1 Wins Produced, 0.056 WP48
- 2004-05: 1.9 Wins Produced, 0.053 WP48
- 2005-06: -0.1 Wins Produced, -0.003 WP48
- 2006-07: -0.1 Wins Produced, -0.005 WP48
- 2007-08: -2.4 Wins Produced, -0.075 WP48
- 2008-09: -0.8 Wins Produced, -0.024 WP48
- 2009-10: -3.9 Wins Produced, -0.134 WP48
- Career Totals: -4.3 Wins Produced, -0.022 WP48
Willie Green
- 2003-04: -1.9 Wins Produced, -0.119 WP48
- 2004-05: -1.1 Wins Produced, -0.049 WP48
- 2005-06: -0.4 Wins Produced, -0.121 WP48
- 2006-07: -4.3 Wins Produced, -0.112 WP48
- 2007-08: -0.2 Wins Produced, -0.004 WP48
- 2008-09: -0.3 Wins Produced, -0.008 WP48
- 2009-10: 0.8 Wins Produced, 0.024 WP48
- Career Totals: -7.9 Wins Produced, -0.039
Jason Smith
- 2007-08: -1.5 Wins Produced, -0.067 WP48
- 2009-10: -1.5 Wins Produced, -0.110 WP48
- Career Totals: -3.1 Wins Produced, -0.083 WP48
These three players have combined to produced -14.7 wins in their careers. Although Willie Green’s production of -7.9 wins is the lowest total for this trio – and Jason Smith has the lowest career WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] — Darius Songaila was actually the least productive player in the entire NBA last season. I suspect (and I have not actually researched this question) that these are the least productive veterans ever to comprise the entire list of all the people involved in an NBA trade.
Apparently the Sixers did this trade because they wanted Craig Brackins (not sure where I read this). Back in June, Shawn Ryan and I analyzed the players selected in the draft who played college basketball in 2009-10. We reported that Brackins posted a 6.3 PAWS40 [Position Adjusted Win Score per 40 minutes] last season. That mark ranked 50th (out of 53) in the 2010 draft class.
To put that in perspective, I looked at players drafted since 1995 who played three years in the league (the 2008-09 season was the last year considered). Of the 21 rookies who had a PAWS40 of 6.3 or less (and who played at least 500 minutes across their first three seasons) only one – Trevor Ariza – had a career WP48 mark (after three seasons) that was above average. And 12 of these players had a WP48 mark in the negative range.
In sum, it doesn’t seem likely that Brackins is going to be an above average NBA player.
So if you are fans of either team, your reaction to this trade should be… well, I am not sure. Maybe you should hope the players you acquire never really get on the floor. Yes, that doesn’t sound like much of a hope after a trade.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
robbieomalley
September 24, 2010
Yeah this trade had me going ಠ_ಠ. Like, “LOL, what?” This move is like the biggest waste of time ever. That being said, I like it more for the Hornets. They have the better chance of not playing the players they acquired.
Devin Dignam
September 24, 2010
I just looked into the numbers for Brackins today…talk about re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic.
robbieomalley
September 24, 2010
I’ve done some more research on this deal.
All three players are expiring contracts and Brackins is on a really cheap rookie deal. Both teams are already under the luxury tax. It seems money was not considered in this deal.
Obviously, wins produced says all four players are terrible/likely to be terrible. Ty’s MWS agrees. Win shares and PER says the same thing. Even adjusted +/- agrees (over the last two seasons). No advanced statistics were considered.
“But all player evaluation goes through points per game, right?” Usually, but none of these players are scorers.
This is the most mindbogglingly irrelevant trade in maybe the history of sports. Honestly, what makes this a deal to even consider proposing on either side of the table? There is literally no reason this should ever even be discussed. In a way this is fascinating. What could the thought process of all parties involved possibly have been? Maybe I’m missing something.
jbrett
September 24, 2010
I’ve been laughing since I started reading this. How could we label a trade like this one? “The Boondoggle”? “Pork Barrel”? How about “You Turn Your Back, I’ll Turn Mine”? I got it; “There Was Absolutely Nothing On TV.”
dberri
September 24, 2010
I had trouble coming up with a title for the post. And describing the trade was difficult as well. A swap of very unproductive players?
I do like jbrett’s label: “There Was Absolutely Nothing on TV”
arturogalletti
September 24, 2010
Hmm. Just checked, freechrispaul is still available.
Joe
September 24, 2010
Willie Green has been a positive performer the last 2 years I think.
Is that noteworthy?
Anyway, as a Sixers fan, I don’t know what to think. At least this means Willie Green is gone after such a painful 7 years?
Brackins had a better sophomore year… I’m grasping at straws…
Im guessing this was done so the Hornets could get a guard and that was pretty much it. The Sixers saw it as a free flyer.
robbieomalley
September 24, 2010
“There was absolutely nothing on TV.”
“Am I missing something?”
“Breaking News: NBA teams troll advanced stat geek community.”
“NBA teams divide by zero.”
jbrett
September 24, 2010
“Wife Swap.” (Too mean-spirited?)
robbieomalley
September 24, 2010
Nah, jbrett that’s real good.
This is mean spirited, although it makes more sense than this trade.
http://sarahjessicaparkerlookslikeahorse.com/
Italian Stallion
September 24, 2010
dberri,
This is a bit off topic, but I think it will have broad interest. I have a few questions related to point differential.
How many games is a 1 point team differential worth over a season?
Is each incremental point worth a similar value?
I’m playing around with some stats trying to determine the values of various trades via point differential instead of WINs (long story why), but lack the mathematical knowledge to do so. If you could give a ball park understanding or formula it would be satisfactory for my purposes.
ARJWright
September 24, 2010
Less about wins and more about the flexibility gained for both teams. NO had no guard on the market they wanted to pay to backup CP that wouldn’t be some kind of threat to take minutes, and Green has proven to be good enough in spot backup point duties. For the Sixers, this was an effort to push Meeks up the depth chart, and get another warm body vet that would at least keep some of the “kids” from playing as if they would be scared to lose too much time. Does mean that both teams need to play better and more consistently, but that’s something stats only show part of the story towards ;)
jbrett
September 24, 2010
I’ll stop after this one: “One Man’s Trash…Is Another Man’s Garbage.”
Gray Jay
September 24, 2010
Philly had a logjam at guard (and still do, unless they think Williams and Holliday can play at the same time). Maybe Songaila forgot to return David West’s chafing dish after the Saints’ game get-together? I’m with the rest of you, this looks to be the most irrelevant trade I’ve ever heard of. Is there a multi-player one in the database where the best player involved was worse than Willie Green?
ION, the Heat surprisingly will not be adding Dampier and his .162 WP48. http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-heat/sfl-miami-heat-erick-dampier-s092410,0,3905808.story From the story, it reads like they’re telling him no, rather than the other way around.
I guess they’re good with Ilgauskas (-.040 last year, .093 in 08-09), Anthony (-.017, -.048 in 08-09), and Magloire (.068 on ~400 minutes, .053 in 08-09 on about 750 minutes). Yeah, can’t possibly see why they’d want Dampier… Is there a basketball reason you all can see why they’d shut out the possibility of adding Dampier? (not that the Heat need any more help.)
jbrett
September 24, 2010
Gray Jay,
You’re right, that’s a head-shaker. They could only offer Damp $1.4 million, and THEY declined? Let all of us fans of anyone else bow our heads and give thanks.
arturogalletti
September 24, 2010
Pat Riley decided that he didn’t want the universe to collapse from the improbability of putting together such a ridiculous roster?
some dude
September 24, 2010
1st thing i thought when I saw this trade earlier today was “why bother?”
Do you think this trade took days to figure out? Or was this like something that happened over a game of poker where some unknown 3rd GM won and thus they had to consummate this trade.
But I would love to know if this is the most irrelevant trade in NBA history. Its’g got to be up there.
arturogalletti
September 24, 2010
The fascinating thing is about this trade is that I’m sure we could find four better players in d-league without too much effort willing to sign for the minimum so the team could test them out on the court. Why would you ever want a sub .000 WP48 player who’s a guard and played at least 5 years in the league? The NBA kills me sometimes.
Chicago Tim
September 25, 2010
Regarding the Heat and Dampier, I’m guessing it’s mainly about money (all four of their present centers have guaranteed contracts and would get paid even if cut). Also, it’s possible that they don’t want to annoy James and Wade by benching (Big Z) or cutting (Magliore) their friends. Also, signing five centers would make it that much less likely that they could persuade Bosh to play center, which is what they really want to do so Haslem can play power forward. And it was simply unnecessary to risk any trouble at all from this signing, since they are already far better than any other team.
I’m hoping Dampier ends up on the Rockets, and not Milwaukee, which is rumored to be pursuing him. I don’t know how Milwaukee can match the Rockets’ offer, or why Dampier would play in Milwaukee for less money.
Gray Jay
September 25, 2010
Chicago Tim,
Unlike many fellow Rockets’ fans, I’d love to see Dampier on the Rockets. I figure I suffered enough as a Bay Area resident watching him on the Warriors, I should get to enjoy him contribute positively for the Rockets.) It’s an O.K. situation for him, though certainly not as ideal as Miami would have been. A hair more money, and the Rockets could really use him. The recent minor injury to Brad Miller is continuing to show just how thin they are at the 5. Evidently, it’s anathema for Hayes, Scola, or Hill to play that position, judging by this comment from the Rockets’ beat writer, “When training camp begins today, Jordan Eglseder will be the Rockets’ only healthy, full-time center[.]”
No doubt your guess about Miami’s reasoning is correct, I’m just surprised that they’re willing to make do with relics like Z and inferior players like Anthony and Magloire to save a few bucks and to further suck up to what is starting to resemble a junior-high cheerleader clique. Though it wouldn’t be good for WoW as a predictive tool—and it won’t happen anyway—is anyone else futilely hoping this Miami experiment crashes and burns spectacularly? Besides the entire cities of Cleveland and Toronto? With Miami’s team more or less set at this point, what’s their forecast for Projected Wins?
Chicago Tim
September 25, 2010
Gray Jay —
Arturo’s rough estimate for Miami is 68 games.
http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/2010/09/16/nba-now-rankings-for-2010-2011-take-1-the-2010-11-build-v-0-1/
Dampier could have pushed them to 72, I think. But I think his salary would count double, because they are already in luxury tax territory. And they really don’t need him to win a title, I judge.
Also, they did give him a work out before they said “no.” Perhaps they discovered he isn’t in shape, or might even have a lingering injury of some kind. Maybe he was rude to someone. It’s hard to say.
And yes, Houston really needs him. Other teams need him too, but Houston more than the rest, probably. Even if Miller was healthy, his last season with the Bulls shows he is getting old.
palamida
September 25, 2010
IS, Without getting too specific – u can safely use the 2.4 fixed figure for determining the value of a differential point.
For Instance – 1 pt. diff – (1*2.4) + 41 = 43.4; meaning a team which bodes a 1 pt eff. diff should be expected to win 43.4 games across a season.
When looking at teams which have negative eff. diff marks you do…. exactly the same :) – E.g – (-1*2.4) + 41 = 38.6.
There shouldn’t, in theory, be any exponential component, even though in reality things can get tricky (especially around the edges :p).
Hope this helps.
arturogalletti
September 25, 2010
Tim,
A full miami review is coming. Also , I kinda thought Dampier would be a good fit for the Bulls.
Italian Stallion
September 26, 2010
Palamida,
Thanks a whole bunch. I appreciate it.
IS
Philip
September 26, 2010
Looks like the Hornets are serious about getting Chris Paul some help.
Chicago Tim, interesting theory. The idea that they’d want Bosh to play center so that they can put Haslem (or Lebron, for that matter) at PF seems plausible. WP rates Dampier quite highly, though general the perception for the last few years is that he’s been an average center with a huge, unjustified contract. He’s certainly a huge step up from any of the backup bigs the Heat have now.
robbieomalley
September 26, 2010
I think it’s funny that the Carmelo deal is basically done but the Nuggets are having cold feet. They are getting by far the best end of the deal and it’s not even close.
Italian Stallion
September 27, 2010
robbie
It’s amazing to me how over rated Melo is.
Some Knicks fans are calling for Walsh’s head if he doesn’t give up Randolph, Gallo, and Curry’s 11M expiring contract for Melo. A few are evening calling for trading Chandler for a weak first rounder to sweeten the pot.
It’s mind boggling how uninformed some people are (and I’m
including huge numbers of the print and radio media in that).
Maybe there’s a legitimate debate between my position on him and the other extreme, but I see him as no better than a mildly above average SF that could probably be a little better if he was smarter about his shot selection.
I’m not so sure I’d give up more than Curry’s expiring plus filler for him because I think the team could easily swing a deal for an above average player for Curry at the trade deadline and perhaps even fill a need better.
Perhaps he’s more productive than Gallo now, but Gallo has more upside and is on a rookie deal. I’d rather have Gallo plus whoever they can get for Curry than no Gallo and no Curry for Melo.
Italian Stallion
September 27, 2010
“evening” should be “even”. (time to start proof reading) lol
Curious
September 27, 2010
“What could the thought process of all parties involved possibly have been?”
I’m pretty sure that BOTH teams had a meeting like this:
– “Our players A and B suuuuuuck so we should trade them, what do we know about players X and Y from other team’s bench?”
– “Um, well , you know, given minutes and right role plus some work with our coaching staff they may be able to…”
– “Great! Let’s make a trade!”
;-)
Curious Guy
September 27, 2010
“Why would you ever want a sub .000 WP48 player who’s a guard and played at least 5 years in the league? The NBA kills me sometimes.”
IMHO you simply have a bad assumption: sometimes it’s not about players received but about those traded away.
Although I agree it’s off the charts on unintentional comedy scale I actually like this part in sports: where else can you trade your problems for other man’s problems and hope it will work out? ;-)