My latest at Huffington Post reviews the results of research Martin Schmidt and I published in the American Economic Review (AER) in 2004. Via some fairly sophisticated time-series analysis, Marty and I found that labor disputes do not statistically impact attendance in professional sports. In other words, fans often threaten to leave when the players or owners walk. But fans don’t follow through (in statistically significant numbers).
To the extent non-economists pay attention to my research, it is Wins Produced (or basketball research in general) that often gets the most attention. My work on basketball, though, isn’t considered as significant to economists (to the extent that anyone in economics think what I do is significant) as this paper in the AER (the leading journal – of more than 400 journals — in economics). And now that labor disputes are once again on the horizon I thought it might be a good idea to note the story this research is telling.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
Chicago Tim
October 5, 2010
What about the NHL losing its ESPN contract? Was that a result of the labor dispute? And didn’t it affect their visibility and bottom line?
jbrett
October 5, 2010
I had a hunch I was statistically insignificant when I walked on MLB after the strike to end all strikes; certainly MLB made me feel that way. On the plus side, I essentially missed the whole juiced era, and I get to be the “back in my day” guy FOREVER!
Tommy_Grand
October 6, 2010
Good article, Professor.
Mo
October 7, 2010
Doesn’t looking solely at attendance miss the largest source of casual fans and a huge source of revenue, TV? There’s a selection bias involved by looking at the people who go to the games. By definition, the people who go to the game are the most loyal fans willing to pay the most with time, effort and money. However, the more casual fans are the ones who watch the games on TV. After a strike, the fan base you’re most likely to keep are the devoted fans and the ones you’re likely to lose are the casual ones.
In the 9 years before the strike*, the TV ratings for the World Series averaged 22.3. In the 9 years afterward, the ratings were 15.3, a 31% decrease. My guess is that the attendance for the World Series was virtually the same in those two time periods because the World Series games almost always sell out.
Losing TV money due to low ratings can cripple a league. Ask the NHL and NBC how their ratings were after the lockout.
* To avoid the effect of an especially compelling matchup.