Originally this post was going to be all about the loss of Jonas Jerebko. But as you will see, it has morphed into a post on how we can play with numbers to create a little bit of hope for fans of the Pistons (the team I follow).
Last year the Pistons only won 27 games. Obviously, the level of success led Joe Dumars (the Pistons GM) to conclude that one shouldn’t “mess with success” (that was sarcasm). Specifically, Dumars decided – despite such a miserable season – to bring back almost everyone from the 2009-10 season.
Back in August it was argued that this was probably not the best move the Pistons could have made. As the following table illustrates, of the team’s 27 wins, 16 could be traced to the production of Jonas Jerebko and Ben Wallace. And that means the rest of this roster was worth only about 11 victories.
This past summer the Pistons added Tracy McGrady in free agency and Greg Monroe in the draft lottery (yes, that was about all they did). With respect to the latter, Monroe’s numbers last season at Georgetown were essentially average for a player selected in the draft out of college. So it doesn’t seem likely that Monroe will help much as a rookie (although since college numbers don’t forecast perfectly, we can still hope Monroe will contribute).
What about McGrady? T-Mac can play shooting guard or small forward. But since the Pistons already have Richard Hamilton and Ben Gordon at shooting guard, one can expect T-Mac to play most of his minutes at small forward. As the next table illustrates, T-Mac last posted a level of production (at small forward) that would push his WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] above 0.150 in 2006-07. And the last time his production eclipsed the 0.200 mark was in 2004-05.
In sum, it seems unlikely the Pistons are going to be helped much by their two summer acquisitions.
So Detroit is going to rely on the players who are returning. And one of these – Jonas Jerebko – just went down with a serious injury. So is everything lost?
As a Pistons fan, I have some hope. And here is how this hope was constructed.
If we focus strictly on last year, it looks somewhat bleak. But Richard Hamilton, Charlie Villanueva, Ben Gordon, and T-Mac all played better in 2008-09. If we assume (economists get to make assumptions) that this quartet will return to what we saw in 2008-09, then here is what we might see in 2010-11.
Starters
Rodney Stuckey: 28 minutes per game, 0.030 WP48, 1.4 Wins Produced
Richard Hamilton: 26 minutes per game, 0.071 WP48, 3.2 Wins Produced
Tayshaun Prince: 28 minutes per game, 0.151 WP48, 7.2 Wins Produced
Charlie Villanueva: 24 minutes per game, 0.104 WP48, 4.3 Wins Produced
Ben Wallace: 28 minutes per game, 0.241 WP48, 11.5 Wins Produced
Bench
Will Bynum: 20 minutes per game, 0.052 WP48, 1.8 Wins Produced
Ben Gordon: 22 minutes per game, 0.091 WP48, 3.7 Wins Produced
Tracy McGrady: 20 minutes per game, 0.111 WP48, 3.8 Wins Produced
Jason Maxiell: 24 minutes per game, 0.110 WP48, 4.5 Wins Produced
Greg Monroe: 20 minutes per game, 0.050 WP48, 1.7 Wins Produced
Add up the Wins Produced and we see a team winning 43 games. Wow. A 16 game improvement!!!
Before anyone gets too excited (and I can already see people saying “Economist (or stat-head, or something more derogatory) says Pistons will win 43 games!!”), let’s note a few dark clouds:
- This is a forecast that assumes four players return to what we saw in 2008-09. Seems unlikely that all four come back.
- This forecast ignores injuries. One suspects Jerebko is not the last injury.
- Of the Pistons 43 wins, 11.5 are tied to the play of Ben Wallace. Can Ben Wallace really keep producing? And can he play 2,000 plus minutes? That also seems unlikely. And the drop-off after Big Ben in the frontcourt is huge.
- This forecast is also constructed by assuming DaJuan Summers and Chris Wilcox — two players who posted negative WP48 numbers last year — never play. With Jerebko out, the odds of these players getting minutes just went up. And Summers and Wilcox probably won’t help much (although Wilcox has produced some in the past, so maybe we can hope he can help).
So where will the Pistons finish? I think what was said last August still holds. Without Jerebko I still think this team can surpass the 30 win mark. But a post-season berth seems unlikely.
But if everything goes right… well, maybe the Pistons can get to 40 wins.
So there is some hope. But I think about 40 wins is all we can hope for.
In other words, what Rodney Stuckey told Dime Magazine is quite unbelievable. In case you missed it, here is what Stuckey said a few weeks ago:
We all just have to stay healthy and the sky is the limit for us. On paper, we are the best team in the League. We are deep and athletic. All we have to do is play to our abilities. We don’t have the biggest roster, but if we share the ball, we’ll be alright.
Not sure what paper he is talking about. But I would love to see a few sheets of it sometime.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
Bryan
October 7, 2010
DeJuan Blair? What are you talking about?
fricktho
October 7, 2010
dajuan summers
dberri
October 7, 2010
I have trouble saying DaJuan Summers. It should have been Blair :)
Ted
October 7, 2010
“This forecast is also constructed by assuming DeJuan Blair and Chris Wilcox — two players who posted negative WP48 numbers last year — never play. With Jerebko out, the odds of these players getting minutes just went up. And Blair and Wilcox probably won’t help much (although Wilcox has produced some in the past, so maybe we can hope he can help).”
– DaJuan Summers, actually.
brgulker
October 7, 2010
“The wrong DaJuan,” as we like to call him over at Detroit Bad Boys.
The loss of Jerebko can be mitigated by a few things, IMO:
1) Tayshaun Prince staying healthy and playing big minutes at SF. IF he’s healthy, JJ wasn’t going to play over him anyway.
2) The potential development and emergency of Austin Daye, who was relatively productive as a rookie. He may see minutes at SG and SF, depending on a variety of factors.
3) Max or Charlie V taking a step forward at PF. Obviously, we can’t realistically expect a huge leap at this point in their careers, but both have hovered around average for their careers. Is it possible they could approximate Jonas’ production at the PF slot? Well, it’s possible … just not sure how likely.
More realistically, I’d expect Ben’s performance and minutes to drop off this season, especially in back-to-bakcs. I expect TMac to get minutes over Daye, at least early on, and I have trouble thinking TMac will actually out-produce Daye. And I am not at all optimistic with our options at C after Ben Wallace — Monroe and Max. That’s it. Yuck.
So while the numbers suggest 40 wins is still possible if all goes perfectly, I have a really hard time believing it will. 30 – 35 wins feels inevitable after losing Jonas … which ultimately means this Pistons rebuild isn’t going very well.
brgulker
October 7, 2010
emergency = emergence. Spell check fail.
Chicago Tim
October 7, 2010
Wait, there’s still hope for the season!
“Another team that could emerge as a facilitator in an Anthony trade is the Pistons. Sources say the Nuggets inquired several weeks ago about the availability of Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince — with a particular emphasis on Prince, whose $11.1 million contract is expiring and would provide a cost-cutting tool for the Nuggets. At the time, Pistons president Joe Dumars quickly dismissed the invitation. But sources say there’s a chance Detroit’s posture could change with reports this week that the team will be sold to Tigers and Red Wings owner Mike Ilitch. ”
[Sarcasm alert.]
fricktho
October 7, 2010
The more likely scenario for the Pistons is much worse. Ben Wallace cannot be expected to maintain the .241 wp/48 he displayed last season. A drop off in his production has to be expected. Ben Gordon however cannot possibly produce as poorly as he did last season. He won’t be given enough minutes to make a major impact in the win total even if he does produce at a career high, but it should be enough to mitigate the drop off in Wallace’s production. Prince produced at a very respectable level last season, and over the course of his career. The wild-cards for the Pistons are Daye and Monroe. Daye was productive when given the opportunity. He won’t see minutes at SG or SF, but I wouldn’t be scared of giving him minutes at PF given the other options that the Pistons have to replace of Jerebko. Daye has to be more productive than Villanueva or Maxiell. Monroe on the other hand probably won’t be super productive, especially in his rookie season, but giving him minutes would certainly calm the down the rabid fanbase.
I’m more inclined to predict sub 30 wins than over 40 wins. Jerebko was their third most productive player based on wp/48, and given the Wallace age factor it was possible Jerebko was going to outproduce him if he was ripe for any improvement, which I believe he was. It’s quite possible the Pistons lost their most productive player for the season.
tywill33
October 7, 2010
“Playoffs… don’t talk about playoffs! Are you kidding me?? Playoffs??”
– James Mora
Tommy_Grand
October 7, 2010
38-39 wins
evanz
October 7, 2010
I think Detroit fans better start hoping for Harrison Barnes, which seems a more likely outcome of this season than the playoffs after Jerebko went down.
some dude2
October 7, 2010
I think fricktho is pretty spot on here.